fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
It was just so shocking to me watching people panic buy, ooof!
i put an order out for a UAL short at 7:57, didn’t fill
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Stock Thread (15 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
i put an order out for a UAL short at 7:57, didn’t fill
GoBirds
Footballguy
I’m no expect but I’d expect it to keep falling. We’ve erased 12% in a week, you have to think this is a good chance for that 20% plus pullback we are long overdue for. Once that happens though if this virus is under control and Bernie isn’t the favorite I wouldn’t be surprised to see it shoot back up.
djmich
Footballguy
I agree, not sure we even see 20% drop before back to da moon...gonna eventually be a crash for the ages though.
cosjobs
Footballguy
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
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Insoxicated
Port of Los Angeles is projecting a 25% drop in container volumes this month, as the economic impact of the coronavirus spreads across shipping operations and foreign supply chain. Imagine if 1 in 4 goods imported from Asia suddenly stopped coming. Impact just starting.
https://twitter.com/EricLiptonNYT/status/1233933834670002177?s=20
Lower the periscope...
https://twitter.com/EricLiptonNYT/status/1233933834670002177?s=20
Lower the periscope...
beef
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I wouldn’t feel comfortable with more than 50% in the market right now. I’d want at least half in cash.
culdeus
Footballguy
GoBirds
Footballguy
Who’s buying this week? As we fall further I’ll probably jump in some more Vanguard at some point.
djmich
Footballguy
beef
Footballguy
Dow, S&P and NQ all fluctuating being -2% to -2.6% the last 10 min I've been watching.
I don't think there is a Bernie effect factored in by WS yet, but just in case I'm wrong I don't plan on getting back into any S&P tracking funds until after SupTues. Might play a few stocks with side cash. Not sure which ones yet. Only in CYDY right now and up slightly, but it's peanuts...
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Binky The Doormat
Footballguy
a short term sell of until everyone realizes all of bernies plans are impossible and nothing will be passed. He'll just be an old man occupying the white house for 4 years where nothing gets done. The markets like that.
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Insoxicated
TripItUp
Footballguy
McBokonon
Footballguy
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
Bond yields keep getting hammered. That can’t be great long term
TripItUp
Footballguy
I anticipate to begin buying back in around Wednesday or Thursday.
A lot can change though.
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Anyone paying attention to the case numbers outside of China? Thing is highly contagious and we don’t know enough about it. At this point I’m much more on the selling side than buying side. This is a black swan recession event, imo. Outside China numbers will overtake inside China numbers by the end of the month (if testing capacity increases).
Oh, and Mike Pence is out Covid-19 czar
Oh, and Mike Pence is out Covid-19 czar
Out or our?Anyone paying attention to the case numbers outside of China? Thing is highly contagious and we don’t know enough about it. At this point I’m much more on the selling side than buying side. This is a black swan recession event, imo. Outside China numbers will overtake inside China numbers by the end of the month (if testing capacity increases).
Oh, and Mike Pence is out Covid-19 czar
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
Not saying it’s a black swan necessarily (though it very well could be), but I’m thinking the difference is the shut down of major sections of the Chinese supply chain, and the risk that similar stoppages could happen in other countries.
TripItUp
Footballguy
market was pretty inflated this time, not sure if that was the case in those instances.
Capella
Footballguy
I mentioned that a few pages ago. You’d think that home delivery, cloud computing and Prime video would sort of make them a stock to want during a panic like this.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
They’re attached to basically every etf. No clue what percentage of their shares trade individually, but I’d say the etf pressure will be something that is overwhelming.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Slightly inflated P/E?Sneegor said:
Have you looked at P/E charts? What about Cape?
Last year was basically gains on pure P/E growth.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
This is a black swan, this is a recession coming...
That’s where I’m placing my chips.
That’s where I’m placing my chips.
culdeus
Footballguy
Black swan isn't a recession. Usually we are thinking bread lines at the end of a black swan.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Really hoping for a rally today, like to start selling at higher numbers.
Sell the rips.
Sell the rips.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.
This event is a black swan, and will lead to a recession.
Very true as well. That’s part of the reason I’m just sticking with the stocks I like, most which beat earnings and revenue and aren’t really as tied into China shut down. I was up almost 4% on Friday. Missing those crazy recovery days timing loses a lot of future returns. Definitely will be bargain hunting. Still have a lot in cash even with a few purchases, one hit earnings on Thursday night and was up almost 10%.
There may be a recession and earnings will be affected, in some cases dramatically. But I think a recession would be short lived, and we know the market is forward looking.
I don’t view the stocks I bought last week as highly overvalued, (2 of 3 were 52 week lows) and each has 3, 4, 7% dividends which I believe will stand. I may have bought early but I’m ok with that.
There will be no return on a cash position.
Cash isn’t bad for situations like this. I’m with you on forward looking. If I was invested in travel related (or indirectly related like oil if people travel less) or a business whose supply chain runs through China then I’d be more worried especially if they didn’t somehow benefit from this as well, like Amazon.
Cash on hand for these 10-20% drops can give you nice returns. Those drops don’t usually happen overnight like this but they do happen often.
chet
Footballguy
CYDY with a PR today touting cancer results. TBH, I don't see the need for a PR with Thursday's conference call around the corner. Great results but they could have waited IMO. Also, the top of the page is still advertising the call on Feb 6--so JV.
For those who are wondering, I still haven't sold a share and remain very positive. In the last couple of weeks, I've increased my position about 60%.
For those who are wondering, I still haven't sold a share and remain very positive. In the last couple of weeks, I've increased my position about 60%.
GoBirds
Footballguy
I agree with this, if this checks the box for our recession/bear I could see things taking back off from there if we get this virus under control.
ETA my favorite part of these downturns are the pics they post of the guys on the trading floor, looks like me after a college bender.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-march-2-2020-003013975.html
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Doesn't mean this is the bottom. We can still drop 10-20% and end up a few % for 2020. Naz is only down about 4% for the year. I see a short covering rally in the making. The key in the rally is to see if it becomes a bear flag.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
If you market cap weigh the S&P before the drop—I believe it was trading at closer to a 26x multiple. The markets weren’t nearly as dependent on the top 5-6 companies in previous corrections.Sneegor said:
culdeus
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
D-Day
Footballguy
Rambling thoughts from a marketing guy...
As @siffoin pointed out before all of the virus fear hit, he is thinking we may swing to lower stock returns due to being too much above the averages. This is still in play IMO.
Now, with Cyrus the Virus (for you Con-Air fans), there are sectors that are going to get hit hard for a while. Travel, public events, movie theaters etc. Even if there was a cure and/or vaccination RIGHT NOW, and we KNOW FOR A FACT that no one else will get sick, or die, people are going to be hesitant to travel. DIS would be one that I believe will feel this for about six months after we get a handle on the virus.
AAPL is going to suffer this quarter, and most likely into the next. In my uneducated opinion, production is going to be the reason sales are down, not demand. It has been amazing how Apple takes a current product, improves it a little, tosses the word "pro" behind it, and demand skyrockets. Tim Cook cited that production was getting better day by day.
AMZN will also have issues due to supply, but that will only be a temporary issue once the virus has been resolved (if). Long term, I think Amazon will start having bigger issues with the quality of the products that they sell (knock offs). I'm already looking harder for fake reviews, and possible counterfeit products than I had in the past.
Short term winners? Costco, Home Depot, Lowes, P&G, grocery stores, and whoever makes those dang masks. I think the earning numbers will spike this and next quarter. I would sell once the fear subsides and demand for those products drop off the table. People have not stopped buying, but have changed what they are currently buying, the amount they are buying (preppers), and from whom they are buying.
***Before following any of my recommendations, please re-read line #1 several times, and do your own homework.***
As @siffoin pointed out before all of the virus fear hit, he is thinking we may swing to lower stock returns due to being too much above the averages. This is still in play IMO.
Now, with Cyrus the Virus (for you Con-Air fans), there are sectors that are going to get hit hard for a while. Travel, public events, movie theaters etc. Even if there was a cure and/or vaccination RIGHT NOW, and we KNOW FOR A FACT that no one else will get sick, or die, people are going to be hesitant to travel. DIS would be one that I believe will feel this for about six months after we get a handle on the virus.
AAPL is going to suffer this quarter, and most likely into the next. In my uneducated opinion, production is going to be the reason sales are down, not demand. It has been amazing how Apple takes a current product, improves it a little, tosses the word "pro" behind it, and demand skyrockets. Tim Cook cited that production was getting better day by day.
AMZN will also have issues due to supply, but that will only be a temporary issue once the virus has been resolved (if). Long term, I think Amazon will start having bigger issues with the quality of the products that they sell (knock offs). I'm already looking harder for fake reviews, and possible counterfeit products than I had in the past.
Short term winners? Costco, Home Depot, Lowes, P&G, grocery stores, and whoever makes those dang masks. I think the earning numbers will spike this and next quarter. I would sell once the fear subsides and demand for those products drop off the table. People have not stopped buying, but have changed what they are currently buying, the amount they are buying (preppers), and from whom they are buying.
***Before following any of my recommendations, please re-read line #1 several times, and do your own homework.***
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Anyone paying attention to cases outside of China number? China's data is useless, #### them, who knows if it can be trusted. I would think Italy and South Korea are much more reliable sources of data, and if you dive into the numbers, the probability of a pandemic becomes clear.
Outside of China will basically roll from 2k to 10k in a week. Clearly super contagious, clearly deadly to people with preexisting conditions... While we get this optimism today, I'm looking for individual stocks to short, and unfortunately I'm a little late to travel stocks (although I think they've got more pain to come), so prob need to look elsewhere.
Outside of China will basically roll from 2k to 10k in a week. Clearly super contagious, clearly deadly to people with preexisting conditions... While we get this optimism today, I'm looking for individual stocks to short, and unfortunately I'm a little late to travel stocks (although I think they've got more pain to come), so prob need to look elsewhere.
