Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Stock Thread (8 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Breath away from 20%
Mancini - Zooming out on $SPX, if it can't sustain strength from the 2720 low today, the next opportunity to buy won't come until 2550. 2550 is support of a decade long "megaphone" pattern that has defined this historic bull market. High probability long if hit
His 'low' was the low on ES=F, not the S&P itself.
His 'low' was the low on ES=F, not the S&P itself.
Last edited by a moderator:
siffoin
Footballguy
Last edited by a moderator:
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
Sand
Footballguy
Have not looked into airlines. And I don't fly AA (almost all Delta), so I don't see firsthand the substandard business that I keep hearing about with regards to AA.
Todem
Footballguy
Yet once this is all behind us.....we are heading straight for that bubble again and long term.....will surpass and keep marching. Of course with some bumps in the road. Nothing is ever a smooth ride.
I am feeling like we go north of 20% down. There is still too much news to come that will drive more to capitulation. I am not convinced we have hit bottom yet.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I’m buying around here. Going to go 40% invested.
Yep but I think we may leave Joe Retail behind again as he swears off the stock market for the umpteenth time. Wash, Rinse, Repeat.
Target is 3800-4000 before the next major beat down.
I'm considering another 10% maybe 15% but if we bounce up tomorrow 5%, I'm probably selling into it.
There's the cone.
culdeus
Footballguy
Do you have a source of what amount of the market is held by retail investors with <1M exposure? I wonder with 401k if that has never been higher.
Todem
Footballguy
Last edited by a moderator:
I do not. This is bigger than Joe Retail but he got caught yet again. Joe Retail running screaming can't cause this type of sell off. The market was leaving Joe Retail (this is $ outside the 401K) behind and the talking heads promoted it until Joe Retail made his patented mistake.
Joe Retail 2018 Still hates the Market.
Joe Retail 2020 The sell-off stands as the first major test for mom-and-pop investors who, emboldened by a brokerage price-war, have effectively doubled their trades in equities over the last several months. The surge in interest from a group notoriously known for chasing winners has helped fuel a rally in stocks from tech giants to small-caps.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
[icon]
Insoxicated
cosjobs
Footballguy
Even if no one goes to their parks this years, the market thinks they won't. I wouldn't touch it.
Full disclosure, I am in no position to give financial advice. I've been hitting homeruns the last few weeks, but my overall track record is spotty at best.
cosjobs
Footballguy
That time may have come and gone. Personally I don't think it has and if you dump, you dump on a dead cat bounce. Possibly tomorrow. Problem there is you are going to think that the worst is over. If you dump today and it goes up tomorrow, you are gonna want to get back in in fear that it's over and you will be the washout guy. You have to look past the talking heads and ask yourself, 'how's it look out there in the real world'. imo, not too good and it's not gonna get fixed in a week or month.
You got a tough decision.
A reminder of what one Elliott Wave guy has: Notice his pinned tweet - where we are and what can happen: Z Mannes.
Added this person. She tweets a lot. https://twitter.com/hmeisler - For one of the few times in market history, more than 50% of securities on the NYSE fell to a 52-week low while few hit a 52-week high. In the past four decades, only 1987 and 2008 have exceeded this.
Last edited by a moderator:
cosjobs
Footballguy
I'd throw some at it, but its looking to me like more of a 2000-2200 bottom to me, so keeping most of my powder dry
Last edited by a moderator:
cosjobs
Footballguy
Speaking of jumping onto sinking ships, it reminds me of election night 2016 when Hillary's odds plummeted after the Wisconsin results and so I doubled down.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Me too. I’ll go fully invested around there but things can change quickly so I’ll buy myself down to there.
cosjobs
Footballguy
cosjobs
Footballguy
cosjobs
Footballguy
Doesn't matter. Until we know what to expect Corona, I expect huge volatility on a downward trend. The market hates nothing more than uncertainty
beef
Footballguy
I'm in no hurry to jump back in with my 401k & IRA. I'm comfy sitting out a bit longer and just playing some ETF's and stocks with side cash.
If this market was acting rationally, it would more than likely be a good time to get some money in now. Definitely oversold, valuations on quite a number of stocks as well as the underlying indexes look quite good all things being equal.
However, the market is not acting rationally. I think you have to wait for some good news frankly to pan out before dipping back in, as there is going to be more bad news imho sooner rather than later. What happens when school districts start closing? Maybe mass transit stops running in major metro areas? News of more major organizations sanctioning work forces for work from home? Service industry is going to get hit. Upcoming jobs reports are not going to be pretty and this is all not even mentioning if there is major expansion in the number of CoVid19 cases on areas. Now that oil is getting crushed this is going to put massive pressures on heavily debt burdened domestic oil companies which will also have a ripple effect on banks and service companies.
I think without a positive catalyst to drive stocks up, or at least bolster them from going down further, staying pat is most prudent. I mean, the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points last week and that had no positive effect whatsoever. At this point I'm not even sure what positive news would help - maybe a major government stimulus to help consumers? More interest free loans available for small-mid size businesses to help out? And of course a vaccine or at least some medical treatment that has shown positive effects on slowing the effects or curing the virus, but that's not happening any time soon. China should start ramping up here in the next week or so and if there are no major outbreaks over there causing a subsequent shut down that could be a major positive, but suppose there is another shut down imposed? I simply see no reason to buy anything right now. Sure, you may get lucky and time a bottom in an individual stock, or sector but why chance it? Cruise lines should come back eventually, but you are looking at way over a year until that happens. Airlines? Well, jet fuel prices bottoming out will help, but there is going to be a major decline in discretionary travel for at least the next few quarters. Who is going to plan a vacation at this point in time when there is so much uncertainty with the spread of the virus, as well as if your company may have mandatory shut downs. And business travel is at a fraction of what it was.
Just cross your fingers and hope CYDY comes up with a miracle.
However, the market is not acting rationally. I think you have to wait for some good news frankly to pan out before dipping back in, as there is going to be more bad news imho sooner rather than later. What happens when school districts start closing? Maybe mass transit stops running in major metro areas? News of more major organizations sanctioning work forces for work from home? Service industry is going to get hit. Upcoming jobs reports are not going to be pretty and this is all not even mentioning if there is major expansion in the number of CoVid19 cases on areas. Now that oil is getting crushed this is going to put massive pressures on heavily debt burdened domestic oil companies which will also have a ripple effect on banks and service companies.
I think without a positive catalyst to drive stocks up, or at least bolster them from going down further, staying pat is most prudent. I mean, the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points last week and that had no positive effect whatsoever. At this point I'm not even sure what positive news would help - maybe a major government stimulus to help consumers? More interest free loans available for small-mid size businesses to help out? And of course a vaccine or at least some medical treatment that has shown positive effects on slowing the effects or curing the virus, but that's not happening any time soon. China should start ramping up here in the next week or so and if there are no major outbreaks over there causing a subsequent shut down that could be a major positive, but suppose there is another shut down imposed? I simply see no reason to buy anything right now. Sure, you may get lucky and time a bottom in an individual stock, or sector but why chance it? Cruise lines should come back eventually, but you are looking at way over a year until that happens. Airlines? Well, jet fuel prices bottoming out will help, but there is going to be a major decline in discretionary travel for at least the next few quarters. Who is going to plan a vacation at this point in time when there is so much uncertainty with the spread of the virus, as well as if your company may have mandatory shut downs. And business travel is at a fraction of what it was.
Just cross your fingers and hope CYDY comes up with a miracle.
mr roboto
Footballguy
I feel like it’s pricing in a worst-case scenario right now. Demand will obviously decline over the next few months but most sources I’m reading think that the peak of the virus will be over by the summertime.
it’s like the first week of this decline people were not so sure if they should panic and now everybody’s doing it at the same time
siffoin
Footballguy
Ok. Cleaned it up so it is a bit easier to read. Steelhedge. In general - we're at a good spot for a tradeable bounce...not sure if the low is in though.
Last edited by a moderator:
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
Agreed. I nibbled a bit just now, might leverage in a bit more in the coming weeks. I don't think Sanders is going to get the nomination, so no worries about healthcare for all taking this down.
GoBirds
Footballguy
So if we dropped approximately 300 in the Dow at any point tomorrow we can call it the end of the bull run and we technically are in a bear market?
I just bought a bunch. I didn’t use much new money, but I had a stock I didn’t like as much (it went down less today) as some others and had probably too much. I used that $23k (kept a little bit) and then added another $10k (about 10% of cash). Less about dumping a lot of new money in and more about diversification into more stocks that honestly all got crushed today/the past few weeks even though all had great news lately and look to be great stocks to own the next few years.
Last edited by a moderator:
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
29568 was the high earlier this year (actually, only about a month ago--my, how have things changed). Trim 20% from that high and you get 23654 which we could hit if the Dow drops 197 more points. Winning!
52-week high for the Dow is 29,568.57. 80% of that is 23,655. Close today is 23,851. So yeah, we're about 200 points away from technically entering a bear market.
Last edited by a moderator:
siffoin
Footballguy
OK, then, I'm in the zone. Think I'l have a bear claw for breakfast tomorrow, if I can find enough spare change in the couch. Or I could just sell one share of XOM.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
From a bull market to a basically 20% haircut and bear market in two weeks. What a whirlwind.
Sand
Footballguy
No - it has to close lower. We technically breached the bull market during the day on Christmas Eve, 2018, but since it didn't close under it didn't count.
I have counted up and have 8% (probably 10 thanks today) of investable assets that I can pile in. Didn't do anything today, but if we get close to some of the technical breaks, particularly 23.6%, I'll dump half in. Dump the other half in if we get close to 30%.
GoBirds
Footballguy
We are well overdue to clear that hurdle, while we’re this close let’s make sure we check the box and get rid of the talking point of longest bull ever and being due.
adonis
Footballguy
The impacts from the coronavirus are just starting to be felt. The market is belatedly taking the potential global impact seriously.
The US is progressively becoming more infected. It remains to be seen what ability we'll have to contain the spread, especially in large cities.
Working from home, school closures, event cancellations, travel restrictions...all of this isn't going anywhere for months.
The impact to the global economy is going to be severe.
There will be second, and third level effects we can't see. Things like schools shutting down in big cities, where thousands of kids go every day and it's the only place they can reliably get meals. What happens when those schools close, on low-income/poverty kids who rely on that for daily sustenance? What happens when workers are required to stay home from work from a company that doesn't offer sick days? Who pays? The government? The companies? Lost revenues?
I think the market is taking all of this seriously...the backs and forths are between folks who are appropriately assessing the seriousness of the situation, and folks who still doubt it. We're coming to terms with the full impact of this situation in fits and starts, with folks trying to make money off every fit and start. But with Italy...an entire freaking nation...shutting down for almost a month, the seriousness of this situation is hard to overstate.
Hell no. You have to hold unless you desperately need the money knowing it's 20% less than several weeks ago. You either hold, wait, or buy.
I'm thinking about moving 75k tonight into VTI.
Last edited by a moderator:
TripItUp
Footballguy
What an amazing buying opportunity this will be.
I'm looking at a mix of something like this.with current prices.
25% SPY (S&P Index)
25% Oil (assuming still low)
50% distressed stocks and tech (marriott = example of distressed)
This is a once in a decade/generational opportunity. Licking my chops.
In the meantime, I really want to make short term trades to maximize my profits.
I'm looking at a mix of something like this.with current prices.
25% SPY (S&P Index)
25% Oil (assuming still low)
50% distressed stocks and tech (marriott = example of distressed)
This is a once in a decade/generational opportunity. Licking my chops.
In the meantime, I really want to make short term trades to maximize my profits.
Last edited by a moderator:
culdeus
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
