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Never catch a falling knife.  It’s sage advice because people rush in during a falling market because they think they can call the low and get a bargain.  So let me say the time may not be yet, I think we are getting closer, but it’s always better to buy once the floor is in because it can always go lower.

banks were flying high on the way into late 2008 when the housing bubble finaly caused the market to crash.  Citi went from 500 to 8. BAC went from 30 to 2.  Massive corrections.  90%+ corrections happened over a few months span with the bottom setting during the chaos of March of 2009.  By the time the summer arrived it was clear the banks were in rough shape but they were not going to fail.   BAC rallied from 2 to 17, C from 8 to 60.  The point being when the bottom was in we had huge gains.  If you the balls to buy, the conviction they wouldn’t go bankrupt and a little bit of patience you could have had a 8 bagger.

right now I think CCL is that stock.  It’s beat up real bad and let’s face it for the short term it probably should be.  It’s down 75% from the high a few months ago from 58 to 14.  It was 28 just a week ago.  And it’s probably headed lower from here in the short term.  Dividend is going to get cut and princess one of its main lines is going to shut down for 60 days.  They may try and raise some capital even though they have half a bill on hand and have attractive long term debt.  I’m full aware as I type this the bottom probably isn’t in yet.

This scare is very real and will be a story not soon forgotten........ but by next year folks will return to cruises in droves.  There are thousands of people who all they do in retirement is go from one boat to the next.  My position is the US cruise industry is not going away.  By mid 2021 this will a distant memory and folks will return.  When some semblance of normalcy returns this stock should trade with a three handle again.

I think this is a buy and hold for a year with a easy double ahead.

 
Never catch a falling knife.  It’s sage advice because people rush in during a falling market because they think they can call the low and get a bargain.  So let me say the time may not be yet, I think we are getting closer, but it’s always better to buy once the floor is in because it can always go lower.

banks were flying high on the way into late 2008 when the housing bubble finaly caused the market to crash.  Citi went from 500 to 8. BAC went from 30 to 2.  Massive corrections.  90%+ corrections happened over a few months span with the bottom setting during the chaos of March of 2009.  By the time the summer arrived it was clear the banks were in rough shape but they were not going to fail.   BAC rallied from 2 to 17, C from 8 to 60.  The point being when the bottom was in we had huge gains.  If you the balls to buy, the conviction they wouldn’t go bankrupt and a little bit of patience you could have had a 8 bagger.

right now I think CCL is that stock.  It’s beat up real bad and let’s face it for the short term it probably should be.  It’s down 75% from the high a few months ago from 58 to 14.  It was 28 just a week ago.  And it’s probably headed lower from here in the short term.  Dividend is going to get cut and princess one of its main lines is going to shut down for 60 days.  They may try and raise some capital even though they have half a bill on hand and have attractive long term debt.  I’m full aware as I type this the bottom probably isn’t in yet.

This scare is very real and will be a story not soon forgotten........ but by next year folks will return to cruises in droves.  There are thousands of people who all they do in retirement is go from one boat to the next.  My position is the US cruise industry is not going away.  By mid 2021 this will a distant memory and folks will return.  When some semblance of normalcy returns this stock should trade with a three handle again.

I think this is a buy and hold for a year with a easy double ahead.
How’d the cruise lines do during the recession? I’m wondering how loose retirees are going to be with spending if this is a slow recovery.

 
Never catch a falling knife.  It’s sage advice because people rush in during a falling market because they think they can call the low and get a bargain.  So let me say the time may not be yet, I think we are getting closer, but it’s always better to buy once the floor is in because it can always go lower.

banks were flying high on the way into late 2008 when the housing bubble finaly caused the market to crash.  Citi went from 500 to 8. BAC went from 30 to 2.  Massive corrections.  90%+ corrections happened over a few months span with the bottom setting during the chaos of March of 2009.  By the time the summer arrived it was clear the banks were in rough shape but they were not going to fail.   BAC rallied from 2 to 17, C from 8 to 60.  The point being when the bottom was in we had huge gains.  If you the balls to buy, the conviction they wouldn’t go bankrupt and a little bit of patience you could have had a 8 bagger.

right now I think CCL is that stock.  It’s beat up real bad and let’s face it for the short term it probably should be.  It’s down 75% from the high a few months ago from 58 to 14.  It was 28 just a week ago.  And it’s probably headed lower from here in the short term.  Dividend is going to get cut and princess one of its main lines is going to shut down for 60 days.  They may try and raise some capital even though they have half a bill on hand and have attractive long term debt.  I’m full aware as I type this the bottom probably isn’t in yet.

This scare is very real and will be a story not soon forgotten........ but by next year folks will return to cruises in droves.  There are thousands of people who all they do in retirement is go from one boat to the next.  My position is the US cruise industry is not going away.  By mid 2021 this will a distant memory and folks will return.  When some semblance of normalcy returns this stock should trade with a three handle again.

I think this is a buy and hold for a year with a easy double ahead.
There are so many other stocks I’d choose to get a double or more from the bottom. Banks had only to make it through the period (with Government help, is CCL a US based company?) without going bankrupt. CCL is dealing with a potential consumer psychological shift away from cruises. Maybe that will be short lived as well, but I’d say their addressable market has been cut. It’s how much it’s been cut that determines how far it comes back.

 
Futures up 4%.  Not surprising following yesterday’s bloodbath.
Seriously? WTF. They were down 2-3% last night. I was actually going to put my first 10-20% of cash in today based on the futures last night. I don’t think yesterday was the bottom so I’ll hold out for the post today bounce.

 
Dead cat bounce again. However this one could run for days. Chart guys still have around 2900 as the top. That would suck in a lot of people and if the floor drops out again, they will give up. That's how it usually works.

 
There are so many other stocks I’d choose to get a double or more from the bottom. Banks had only to make it through the period (with Government help, is CCL a US based company?) without going bankrupt. CCL is dealing with a potential consumer psychological shift away from cruises. Maybe that will be short lived as well, but I’d say their addressable market has been cut. It’s how much it’s been cut that determines how far it comes back.
BA is one of the most obvious monsters IMO.

So much negativity around it right now. In one year they will be over $350-360 a share easy. There are ton’s of great stocks out there to hit singles, doubles and some triples with. A few homers with patience as well. 

Today let’s hope the relief rally can hold.....I am exhausted LOL. I fully expect a retest next week and that is when i am going to deploy the cash I have and go long. 

A simply astonishing week we just had. Historic in the speed of the selloff. And a lot has to do with the cap weighted ETF dumping. All computer driven to meet redemptions. Also massive margin calls yesterday.....just pure panic. 

 
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Mancini - Last night I posted $SPX was at its next major support at 2360-2380. This is a longterm trendline connecting the 2009 and 2011 lows- the 3rd test in 12 years & It held exactly for a 200 point rally.A big green Friday candle close off that level would be very good to see for bulls

 
Futures up 4%.  Not surprising following yesterday’s bloodbath.
I woke up and said “well, that’s surprising” so I disagree with you on that point. What’s the catalyst? That’s why I’m surprised. I suppose one thing has changed: the country got serious about acting on Covid-19. Ok, that’s big, but this morning pop feels premature or just like a giant breath of relief. I’m long, but I’m not believing this’ll hold just yet. 

 
Mortgage bonds have already swung 60bps into the red this morning. Up 40 to down 20. I would wager stocks will do the same shortly. 

 
I woke up and said “well, that’s surprising” so I disagree with you on that point. What’s the catalyst? That’s why I’m surprised. I suppose one thing has changed: the country got serious about acting on Covid-19. Ok, that’s big, but this morning pop feels premature or just like a giant breath of relief. I’m long, but I’m not believing this’ll hold just yet. 
Way oversold, due for some sort of bounce even a short lived one. I’m with you, don’t think it’ll hold but do think we’ll be making a bottom soon. Still think it’s around 2100-2200 but could see a run into the 1800s as possible. 

 
I am very focused on next week and seeing a bottom form. I think we get close to it.  One more shock news weekend and hype and we should. And then we should be range bound for a little while. 

4th quarter......buckle up. Massive rally IMO. Our economy was so strong before this crisis. It will rebound in a violent way and it will be glorious. 

Just focus on high quality next week and you will be very happy long term. 

 
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I woke up and said “well, that’s surprising” so I disagree with you on that point. What’s the catalyst? That’s why I’m surprised. I suppose one thing has changed: the country got serious about acting on Covid-19. Ok, that’s big, but this morning pop feels premature or just like a giant breath of relief. I’m long, but I’m not believing this’ll hold just yet. 
I still can't figure out the last two Friday buy-ins.  But I still can't talk myself into any short action.

 
I still can't figure out the last two Friday buy-ins.  But I still can't talk myself into any short action.
I was going to be a buyer today but that was based on last nights futures. Now, I’m waiting for next week to start buying back in (the 20% in cash that I have). 

 
What is the best way to invest in FAANG stocks?  Is there a FAANG MF or ETF?  Or do you simply have to buy shares in each of these individually?

 
BA is one of the most obvious monsters IMO.

So much negativity around it right now. In one year they will be over $350-360 a share easy. There are ton’s of great stocks out there to hit singles, doubles and some triples with. A few homers with patience as well. 

Today let’s hope the relief rally can hold.....I am exhausted LOL. I fully expect a retest next week and that is when i am going to deploy the cash I have and go long. 

A simply astonishing week we just had. Historic in the speed of the selloff. And a lot has to do with the cap weighted ETF dumping. All computer driven to meet redemptions. Also massive margin calls yesterday.....just pure panic. 
I'm moving funds today to try and be ready to roll next week.  I've resisted moving so far expecting at least one more down leg.  I may miss out totally but trying to be disciplined.

 
I woke up and said “well, that’s surprising” so I disagree with you on that point. What’s the catalyst? That’s why I’m surprised. I suppose one thing has changed: the country got serious about acting on Covid-19. Ok, that’s big, but this morning pop feels premature or just like a giant breath of relief. I’m long, but I’m not believing this’ll hold just yet. 
I say “not surprising” because I thought data showed something like an average gain of 2% the day following the ten worst days in the market’s history.  

 
Freaking weird day. Some of my stocks that reported great news this quarter are down and Disney is up after closing their parks?

Seems like the dead cat bounce was just into the well known names regardless if it’s the right thing.

I might nibble today after all.

 
Really nutty day but things are heading south again it seems. 
Yep. Wish I had sold a bit more back in January. I just reallocated and there was some I had too much of and could have made a nice cash bucket. I have a nice one but I feel like a bargain shopper with too many choices.

 
I'm going to throw some things out there.   

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/sbr?ltr=1

When the price of oil dips this thing chases it down, but the distributions still pay out bigly.  Right now it's trading below FMV by 2-3%.  

These oil and gas royalties were where I ran and hid during the 2001-2008 timeframe. These are properties that are not shale plays, they will continue to just dribble out for 20 years.  

Only thing to watch out for is it does put you in the mode of filing a schedule C.  Which can be a super pain in the ###.

 
I'm going to throw some things out there.   

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/sbr?ltr=1

When the price of oil dips this thing chases it down, but the distributions still pay out bigly.  Right now it's trading below FMV by 2-3%.  

These oil and gas royalties were where I ran and hid during the 2001-2008 timeframe. These are properties that are not shale plays, they will continue to just dribble out for 20 years.  

Only thing to watch out for is it does put you in the mode of filing a schedule C.  Which can be a super pain in the ###.
Is this irrelevant if in a ROTH?

 
I've been making lists to look into.  Figured I'd share.  Looking for companies with good balance sheets that were drubbed and will eventually come back.

Top tier:  BA, BAC, JPM, DAL, BRK.B, DIS, V, ADP

Fliers: NVDA, PK, ROKU, CCL

Of all of these I find my eye hitting BA, DIS, and BRK.B. 

ZOMG, Warren must be in heaven about now.  He has 120+ billion to deploy.  I'm tempted to just start accumulating BRK and be done - no doubt he's better at picking than I am.

 
I've been making lists to look into.  Figured I'd share.  Looking for companies with good balance sheets that were drubbed and will eventually come back.

Top tier:  BA, BAC, JPM, DAL, BRK.B, DIS, V, ADP

Fliers: NVDA, PK, ROKU, CCL

Of all of these I find my eye hitting BA, DIS, and BRK.B. 

ZOMG, Warren must be in heaven about now.  He has 120+ billion to deploy.  I'm tempted to just start accumulating BRK and be done - no doubt he's better at picking than I am.
What ballpark price point would you like to see as an entry point for DIS?  

 
What ballpark price point would you like to see as an entry point for DIS?  
Impossible question to answer, to be honest.  I'm just making a list of companies that I see that have good credit ratings and will/are suffering with less people buying their stuff.  Disney parks will come back, but I don't know what a good price point is now, nor am I jumping to move around a ton of money at this point.

If I was to just start buying something now it would be BRK.

Now, if DIS jumped down to 50 I'd be happy to back up the truck.  So, yeah, right this moment I'd love 50.   :P

 
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I've been making lists to look into.  Figured I'd share.  Looking for companies with good balance sheets that were drubbed and will eventually come back.

Top tier:  BA, BAC, JPM, DAL, BRK.B, DIS, V, ADP

Fliers: NVDA, PK, ROKU, CCL

Of all of these I find my eye hitting BA, DIS, and BRK.B. 

ZOMG, Warren must be in heaven about now.  He has 120+ billion to deploy.  I'm tempted to just start accumulating BRK and be done - no doubt he's better at picking than I am.
SHOP
MSFT
HD
BRK
JPM
BAM
CRM
CAT
V

 
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