Stock Thread (34 Viewers)

[siffoin]

Filch- I still really like FEYE, but I just don't know where the bottom is at this point. I think there is a lot of worry over more lock up shares being sold.

Acme CEO is the one who has really looked closely at, and owns, both FEYE and FUEL. If you search the stock contest thread you will find his posts, though they were made at a "happier time" for both stocks.

Technically speaking- $FEYE and $FUEL will take some time before the bear trend will resolve. Best case is weeks- dont be surprised if it is months. That does't mean it can't go up over a period of days 10% or so. What it means if that there is significant downside pressure that is not even close to being resolved.

This is coming from someone who has watched $FEYE very closely too. I thought $60's would have good support and for sure in the $40's. I be extremely cautious - and any buys right now expect to experience pain from the get-go.

Thanks for the input, siff. I plan on tracking the price movements of FEYE plus the market as a whole for a few weeks before deciding to jump in. I have been stuck too many times before from jumping in too early on a downward move.

Do you think the movement will be similar to JCP, which has been in a terrible bear trend with lots of 20% increases for the last year or so? In regards to JCP, I regret not getting in between $5-$6. My gut tells me that if earnings beat on the 15th, then the stock is going to speed back towards $15. Whereas if earnings fall short, the bear trend will probably continue for at least another year. What do you think?

Because both $FEYE and $FUEL IPO'd in the past year...there just isn't a lot of technical data to go back and say...this is LT support. Uncharted territory for these. And it is close to impossible to put some kind of price projection on where I would think this would present a safe entry...all I can say is I think it will take a bit of time to resolve and I think the ultimate bottom will be lower than it is today...and it is possible (probable) a good bit lower.

I'm not saying this is true for $FEYE or $FUEL...but I think within the next year we'll see a number of the "bubble" stocks of 2013/early 2014 that were trading at $50+ trade in the single digits.

And if I'm wrong...and $FEYE and $FUEL return and exceed their old highs...well the technicals will flip in time for an investor to make more than 100% profits when they do.

People always love to quote Buffet when the market or a stock gets hammered: "Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful"

No one ever seems to quote the other side of the statement in a rocketship environment: "Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy."

When folks begin to expect that 35%+ gains are the norm...might be time to be (a little) Fearful. JMHO.

 

[Mario Kart]

FWIW, it's my cousin's opinion that if you are going to invest gold, you should buy coins. The intrinsic value, generally, increases in value quicker and holds value when the gold spot goes down. I have 3-4 myself but don't really know a whole lot about coins. He's 60 and has been doing it his whole life having taken over his dad's business. I gave him 5 grand about six years ago I guess and give him free reign what to buy and sell. Last time I checked it was worth over 13k.

Buying more silver?

http://www.bgasc.com/category/100-oz-silver-bars-all-brands

100 oz bars for $63. Sign me up for 9 of them.

 

[Mario Kart]

FWIW, it's my cousin's opinion that if you are going to invest gold, you should buy coins. The intrinsic value, generally, increases in value quicker and holds value when the gold spot goes down. I have 3-4 myself but don't really know a whole lot about coins. He's 60 and has been doing it his whole life having taken over his dad's business. I gave him 5 grand about six years ago I guess and give him free reign what to buy and sell. Last time I checked it was worth over 13k.

Buying more silver?http://www.bgasc.com/category/100-oz-silver-bars-all-brands

100 oz bars for $63. Sign me up for 9 of them.

Should I really try to buy some? The order would get cancelled, no?

 

[The Ref]

FWIW, it's my cousin's opinion that if you are going to invest gold, you should buy coins. The intrinsic value, generally, increases in value quicker and holds value when the gold spot goes down. I have 3-4 myself but don't really know a whole lot about coins. He's 60 and has been doing it his whole life having taken over his dad's business. I gave him 5 grand about six years ago I guess and give him free reign what to buy and sell. Last time I checked it was worth over 13k.

Buying more silver?

http://www.bgasc.com/category/100-oz-silver-bars-all-brands

100 oz bars for $63. Sign me up for 9 of them.

No way they honor this, but I put in a buy anyway.

 

[NIU Kicker]

FWIW, it's my cousin's opinion that if you are going to invest gold, you should buy coins. The intrinsic value, generally, increases in value quicker and holds value when the gold spot goes down. I have 3-4 myself but don't really know a whole lot about coins. He's 60 and has been doing it his whole life having taken over his dad's business. I gave him 5 grand about six years ago I guess and give him free reign what to buy and sell. Last time I checked it was worth over 13k.

Buying more silver?http://www.bgasc.com/category/100-oz-silver-bars-all-brands

100 oz bars for $63. Sign me up for 9 of them.

No way they honor this, but I put in a buy anyway.

And it took them 30 min to cancel.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Anyone buying TSLA on this recent drop?

Any help with the technical chart siff?

 

[fantasycurse42]

I'm on Siff's long-term sector rotation strategy... Historically looks great, not hard to follow along, & unemotional. Plus, being near all time highs, I feel this is safest should the bull die.

Thanks Siff!

 

[fantasycurse42]

Well I have an investment philosophy that states: There are Bull Markets and there are Bear markets. One should be invested in a bull market. And one should be in cash or hedged in a bear market. One of the cores to successful investing is the ability to recognize whether the current market is bullish or bearish, and swiftly ACT accordingly.

To me this is a logical and practical approach to investing in the markets of today. However, many many people do not subscribe to this investment philosophy. I don't have a qualm with that.

So my goal is: how does one consistently beat the $SPY - a benchmark? And is there a simple process for doing it? To me it seemed logical that if I was able to ascertain which was the strongest performing sector at the moment an investment into that sector would (over time) beat the $SPY. But which sectors should I examine - there's lots of them, and because of that it was a time consuming task without much reward. So I looked to simplify.

All this strategy is doing is looking at 6 major market sectors that encompass the global markets. And by comparing each sectors' strength against the others I can rank them (1-6). I do this on a monthly basis. And from that ranking select the single strongest performing sector (#1) and rotate 100% into it. Some sectors can remain ranked #1 for a series of months. On average there would be somewhere between 5-9 trades in a calendar year.

For tax purposes gains would be classified ST capital gains. I've long sense determined that I personally would rather pay taxes on ST capital GAINS than have write off on LOSSES because I was too stubborn and held positions. Your financial adviser may take a different approach. In my perfect world I'd never have a losing stock position and every year would pay lots of $ in taxes from all those gains.

I believe the results of this strategy will remain consistent moving forward in time because the backtest is done within a small universe of 6 ETFs and the data isn't cherry picked. Price = strength. And the data set of price of these 6 ETFs from the 2003-2014 isn't changed to fit any ideal. Raking is based upon strength. And over the past few years the strategy HAS NOT beaten the benchmark $SPY.

I believe the concept of Buy and Hold is for suckers. This ain't your daddies investment era. Though at market peaks Buy and Hold seems an ideal strategy.

My purpose in throwing this out there was to answer GoBirds who was having trouble finding value in the market.

To note: I'm personally invested in this strategy. I don't think it presents any more risk than buying the $SPY, and I think in a bear market it will help protect gains.

A significant percentage of successful investing is keeping your gains and adding to them vs. trying to make up for losses.

With all that said - people should feel free to do what they think is best. Like I said it's just an idea I thought I'd share.

For more than a year I worked on this concept:

Would it be possible to consistently beat the $SPY by investing into the single strongest sector(s) and rotate regularly. I wanted some simple and a method that was easy to determine strength. For a while I tracked (and invested into):

XHB

XLK

XLU

XLI

XLF

XLE

XLV

XLP

XLY

QQQ

IWM

Based upon which ETFs sectors were the strongest performing and inside an early Bull Trend. The concept proved to be quite difficult to manage.

Summer of 2013 - I decided to simplify and examine only 6 sectors that were essentially based off the diversification concept from the American Association of Individual Investors. The 6 sectors comprised of:

IVV - Large Cap

IJH - Mid Cap

IJR- Small Cap

EFA- International

ADRE - Emerging Mkts

IEF - Bonds

Rather than diversifying into each of these funds, I backtested a strategy to see what would happen if I invested 100% into the strongest sector and rotated monthly. I call this the SH Monthly Rotation Strategy and I bench marked that to the $SPY that was a buy and hold..

The results of a 10 year back test are pretty strong.

Beginning with a portfolio of $10k in 2003 - today:

The SH Portfolio balance would currently sit at $135k vs the $SPY at $26k.

While the past couple of yeasr the $SPY has outperformed this strategy by a couple of % pts each year. The SH Portfolio Rotation Strategy in 10+ years has never suffered a losing year.

I've participated in the strategy since Nov 2013, and update the latest rotation on my site.

You can see all of the data here.

http://steelhedge.com/top-sector-monthly-rotation-strategy/

These two posts give an overview of Siff's sector rotation strategy that I just mentioned.

 

[siffoin]

Anyone buying TSLA on this recent drop?

Any help with the technical chart siff?

As a short term TRADE...for the next few days...it's possible a buy. Longer term investment. Wait

 

[siffoin]

Well I have an investment philosophy that states: There are Bull Markets and there are Bear markets. One should be invested in a bull market. And one should be in cash or hedged in a bear market. One of the cores to successful investing is the ability to recognize whether the current market is bullish or bearish, and swiftly ACT accordingly.

To me this is a logical and practical approach to investing in the markets of today. However, many many people do not subscribe to this investment philosophy. I don't have a qualm with that.

So my goal is: how does one consistently beat the $SPY - a benchmark? And is there a simple process for doing it? To me it seemed logical that if I was able to ascertain which was the strongest performing sector at the moment an investment into that sector would (over time) beat the $SPY. But which sectors should I examine - there's lots of them, and because of that it was a time consuming task without much reward. So I looked to simplify.

All this strategy is doing is looking at 6 major market sectors that encompass the global markets. And by comparing each sectors' strength against the others I can rank them (1-6). I do this on a monthly basis. And from that ranking select the single strongest performing sector (#1) and rotate 100% into it. Some sectors can remain ranked #1 for a series of months. On average there would be somewhere between 5-9 trades in a calendar year.

For tax purposes gains would be classified ST capital gains. I've long sense determined that I personally would rather pay taxes on ST capital GAINS than have write off on LOSSES because I was too stubborn and held positions. Your financial adviser may take a different approach. In my perfect world I'd never have a losing stock position and every year would pay lots of $ in taxes from all those gains.

I believe the results of this strategy will remain consistent moving forward in time because the backtest is done within a small universe of 6 ETFs and the data isn't cherry picked. Price = strength. And the data set of price of these 6 ETFs from the 2003-2014 isn't changed to fit any ideal. Raking is based upon strength. And over the past few years the strategy HAS NOT beaten the benchmark $SPY.

I believe the concept of Buy and Hold is for suckers. This ain't your daddies investment era. Though at market peaks Buy and Hold seems an ideal strategy.

My purpose in throwing this out there was to answer GoBirds who was having trouble finding value in the market.

To note: I'm personally invested in this strategy. I don't think it presents any more risk than buying the $SPY, and I think in a bear market it will help protect gains.

A significant percentage of successful investing is keeping your gains and adding to them vs. trying to make up for losses.

With all that said - people should feel free to do what they think is best. Like I said it's just an idea I thought I'd share.

For more than a year I worked on this concept:

Would it be possible to consistently beat the $SPY by investing into the single strongest sector(s) and rotate regularly. I wanted some simple and a method that was easy to determine strength. For a while I tracked (and invested into):

XHB

XLK

XLU

XLI

XLF

XLE

XLV

XLP

XLY

QQQ

IWM

Based upon which ETFs sectors were the strongest performing and inside an early Bull Trend. The concept proved to be quite difficult to manage.

Summer of 2013 - I decided to simplify and examine only 6 sectors that were essentially based off the diversification concept from the American Association of Individual Investors. The 6 sectors comprised of:

IVV - Large Cap

IJH - Mid Cap

IJR- Small Cap

EFA- International

ADRE - Emerging Mkts

IEF - Bonds

Rather than diversifying into each of these funds, I backtested a strategy to see what would happen if I invested 100% into the strongest sector and rotated monthly. I call this the SH Monthly Rotation Strategy and I bench marked that to the $SPY that was a buy and hold..

The results of a 10 year back test are pretty strong.

Beginning with a portfolio of $10k in 2003 - today:

The SH Portfolio balance would currently sit at $135k vs the $SPY at $26k.

While the past couple of yeasr the $SPY has outperformed this strategy by a couple of % pts each year. The SH Portfolio Rotation Strategy in 10+ years has never suffered a losing year.

I've participated in the strategy since Nov 2013, and update the latest rotation on my site.

You can see all of the data here.

http://steelhedge.com/top-sector-monthly-rotation-strategy/

These two posts give an overview of Siff's sector rotation strategy that I just mentioned.

Knock on wood but the $ADRE is doing pretty good.

In all honesty if you are just going to be a buy and hold investor...you should just go long the $SPY. It's close to all time high...and I'd wager a beer that less than half of the companies in the SP500 are even close to their all-time high. Outliers are what probably pulling the index up...tough sledding for a lot of individual stocks. DOW is probably easier to prop up than anything else. A lot of people probably hear: "Mkt at all time high", and think the same is true for their portfolio...it may or may not be.

 

[Sarnoff]

I'm also on board the sector-rotation strategy, testing it with one of my accounts. ADRE doing well for me so far.

Thanks for all you do, siff. I don't have a twitter or website or anything, just posts on this board, so I don't say it often and I'm not sure how much you hear it through other channels, but your insight is always interesting & helpful.

 

[fantasycurse42]

I'm also on board the sector-rotation strategy, testing it with one of my accounts. ADRE doing well for me so far.

Thanks for all you do, siff. I don't have a twitter or website or anything, just posts on this board, so I don't say it often and I'm not sure how much you hear it through other channels, but your insight is always interesting & helpful.

This!

Siff

 

[sbonomo]

did we miss the boat on GOOG...I was waiting for 500 to buy for a long term hold......

 

[tommyGunZ]

I'm also on board the sector-rotation strategy, testing it with one of my accounts. ADRE doing well for me so far.

Thanks for all you do, siff. I don't have a twitter or website or anything, just posts on this board, so I don't say it often and I'm not sure how much you hear it through other channels, but your insight is always interesting & helpful.

This!

Siff

yep. Easily one of the best posters on the board. Dude brings great insight and original thought.

Thanks siff for your contributions!

 

[siffoin]

Just a quick word.

#1: It's all good. Thanks for nice words.

#2: If anyone wants to start the sector rotation strategy please remember a few things:

A) THE STRATEGY SELECTS FROM THE TOP PERFORMING SECTOR ON THE LAST DAY OF EVERY MONTH. I'm running the strategy weekly...and as it gets closer to the end of the month daily to see if a rotation is going to occur. I post on the web site as well as on twitter.

B) IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE SAME SECTOR FROM THE PREVIOUS MONTH REMAINS THE STRONGEST PERFORMING

C) IF YOU ARE JUST STARTING YOU MUST WAIT UNTIL FOR A SECTOR ROTATION

meaning: If on the last day of May ADRE remains the top sector - wait until the last day of June...to see if ADRE is still the top sector...

rotate into the strategy on THE NEXT rotation whenever that occurs.

This is very very important.

#3) Long the SPY or the DOW is not a bad idea..it's been beating my sector rotation for a couple of years. The issue is going to be if the market every turns bearish - and it's possible that there is never another down period in the market in human history- but if there ever is a down turn ...well then I think this strategy will be quite rewarding. Until then it will follow along pretty close to the SP500 within a few % points (+/-) worst case.

 

[siffoin]

did we miss the boat on GOOG...I was waiting for 500 to buy for a long term hold......

I'd like too as well, but waiting.. Here's a pic.

http://www.screencast.com/users/Steelhedge/folders/Default/media/08411c29-1a8a-4966-ad25-b45e8b379e10

 

[GoBirds]

Just a quick word.

#1: It's all good. Thanks for nice words.

#2: If anyone wants to start the sector rotation strategy please remember a few things:

A) THE STRATEGY SELECTS FROM THE TOP PERFORMING SECTOR ON THE LAST DAY OF EVERY MONTH. I'm running the strategy weekly...and as it gets closer to the end of the month daily to see if a rotation is going to occur. I post on the web site as well as on twitter.

B) IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE SAME SECTOR FROM THE PREVIOUS MONTH REMAINS THE STRONGEST PERFORMING

C) IF YOU ARE JUST STARTING YOU MUST WAIT UNTIL FOR A SECTOR ROTATION

meaning: If on the last day of May ADRE remains the top sector - wait until the last day of June...to see if ADRE is still the top sector...

rotate into the strategy on THE NEXT rotation whenever that occurs.

This is very very important.

#3) Long the SPY or the DOW is not a bad idea..it's been beating my sector rotation for a couple of years. The issue is going to be if the market every turns bearish - and it's possible that there is never another down period in the market in human history- but if there ever is a down turn ...well then I think this strategy will be quite rewarding. Until then it will follow along pretty close to the SP500 within a few % points (+/-) worst case.

Great info thanks as always

 

[St. Louis Bob]

I was waiting for a day like today to but add to my IGR position but sucker ended up flat. I'm also waiting to add some more GOOG.

 

[GoBirds]

I was waiting for a day like today to but add to my IGR position but sucker ended up flat. I'm also waiting to add some more GOOG.

Interested to get thoughts on Google vs Apple and if now is a good time to consider them or what price are you targeting.

Alos I think I saw Apple has a split coming up, does the lower share price offer some upside if you bought now as it would allow more people to afford it?

 

[djmich]

Just a quick word.

#1: It's all good. Thanks for nice words.

#2: If anyone wants to start the sector rotation strategy please remember a few things:

A) THE STRATEGY SELECTS FROM THE TOP PERFORMING SECTOR ON THE LAST DAY OF EVERY MONTH. I'm running the strategy weekly...and as it gets closer to the end of the month daily to see if a rotation is going to occur. I post on the web site as well as on twitter.

B) IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE SAME SECTOR FROM THE PREVIOUS MONTH REMAINS THE STRONGEST PERFORMING

C) IF YOU ARE JUST STARTING YOU MUST WAIT UNTIL FOR A SECTOR ROTATION

meaning: If on the last day of May ADRE remains the top sector - wait until the last day of June...to see if ADRE is still the top sector...

rotate into the strategy on THE NEXT rotation whenever that occurs.

This is very very important.

#3) Long the SPY or the DOW is not a bad idea..it's been beating my sector rotation for a couple of years. The issue is going to be if the market every turns bearish - and it's possible that there is never another down period in the market in human history- but if there ever is a down turn ...well then I think this strategy will be quite rewarding. Until then it will follow along pretty close to the SP500 within a few % points (+/-) worst case.

siff, on your point A, why do you run it weekly or daily, are you executing based on these time periods or just for observation. is monthly the way to go with this strategy?

it's probably buried in here somewhere but what does everyone use as the best app or website for stock tracking....something ideally with customizable drag/drop of performance time periods.

thanks guys, great thread.

 

[siffoin]

Just a quick word.

#1: It's all good. Thanks for nice words.

#2: If anyone wants to start the sector rotation strategy please remember a few things:

A) THE STRATEGY SELECTS FROM THE TOP PERFORMING SECTOR ON THE LAST DAY OF EVERY MONTH. I'm running the strategy weekly...and as it gets closer to the end of the month daily to see if a rotation is going to occur. I post on the web site as well as on twitter.

B) IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE SAME SECTOR FROM THE PREVIOUS MONTH REMAINS THE STRONGEST PERFORMING

C) IF YOU ARE JUST STARTING YOU MUST WAIT UNTIL FOR A SECTOR ROTATION

meaning: If on the last day of May ADRE remains the top sector - wait until the last day of June...to see if ADRE is still the top sector...

rotate into the strategy on THE NEXT rotation whenever that occurs.

This is very very important.

#3) Long the SPY or the DOW is not a bad idea..it's been beating my sector rotation for a couple of years. The issue is going to be if the market every turns bearish - and it's possible that there is never another down period in the market in human history- but if there ever is a down turn ...well then I think this strategy will be quite rewarding. Until then it will follow along pretty close to the SP500 within a few % points (+/-) worst case.

siff, on your point A, why do you run it weekly or daily, are you executing based on these time periods or just for observation. is monthly the way to go with this strategy?

it's probably buried in here somewhere but what does everyone use as the best app or website for stock tracking....something ideally with customizable drag/drop of performance time periods.

thanks guys, great thread.

Well the monthly rotation sector strategy begins on the first trading day of the month at the open and ends of the last trading day of the month at the close. I run the strategy every week because I'm looking for a "heads up" to a possible rotation out of the current "top sector" into what might be the next top sector. It's just a process of preparation. But if a person were to follow along they need to stick with the rules. ---OPEN on the first trading day and CLOSE on the last trading day. The idea is to be simple/straight forward.

I wouldn't stress not being in May's pick ($ADRE). There will be another pick soon enough. The market is always here. No need to rush...or feel you are missing out.

*I do have a weekly ETF rotation strategy too. I just have never posted it.

 

[SIDA!]

IAG is trading below cash...not sustainable. 1Billion in cash on the balance sheet. It's a double in two years at worst

This from a guy I know who runs his own investment firm. He thinks IAG is a steal right now. Hmmmmmm....

There was some chatter about this stock and am bumping to see if there was ever an update or clarity on this situation. I am way behind so maybe it gets answered later in this mammoth thread...but just bumping.

 

[tommyGunZ]

IAG is trading below cash...not sustainable. 1Billion in cash on the balance sheet. It's a double in two years at worst

This from a guy I know who runs his own investment firm. He thinks IAG is a steal right now. Hmmmmmm....

There was some chatter about this stock and am bumping to see if there was ever an update or clarity on this situation. I am way behind so maybe it gets answered later in this mammoth thread...but just bumping.

My buddy got CLOBBERED by this pick. IAG has been a dog for over a year now.

 

[SIDA!]

I took an absolute pounding on IAG. I'm down > $8K in the trade.

Sold at $5.21, down 18%

Oof! Sorry to hear guys. Hope I didn't traumatize you both by bumping the IAG commentary.

 

[NIU Kicker]

I took an absolute pounding on IAG. I'm down > $8K in the trade.

Sold at $5.21, down 18%

Oof! Sorry to hear guys. Hope I didn't traumatize you both by bumping the IAG commentary.

Not at all. IAG is still on my stock watch list. I'm just happy I sold and didn't hold.

 

[Mario Kart]

I took an absolute pounding on IAG. I'm down > $8K in the trade.

Sold at $5.21, down 18%

Oof! Sorry to hear guys. Hope I didn't traumatize you both by bumping the IAG commentary.

Not at all. IAG is still on my stock watch list. I'm just happy I sold and didn't hold.

So, since the stocks are high, you guys hedging with metals? Not physical metal but the metal stocks like IAG and others?

 

[fantasycurse42]

Siff - I see a new tab on your site for weekly rotation. A few quick questions, figure I throw them out here in case anyone else was wondering too.

• I know with the monthly rotation there is IEF should things turn bearish, I assume the weekly rotation also has some type of safety net should the market turn negative?
• While looking for 1% gains, I assume there is some more risk on this strategy than monthly rotation?
• If you were only looking for long term (5 years or further out) gains, what percentage of your portfolio would you put into these two strategies?

Any insight is much appreciated!

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Was soooooo close to shorting SPLS yesterday.

 

[T Love]

Siff - I see a new tab on your site for weekly rotation. A few quick questions, figure I throw them out here in case anyone else was wondering too.

• I know with the monthly rotation there is IEF should things turn bearish, I assume the weekly rotation also has some type of safety net should the market turn negative?
• While looking for 1% gains, I assume there is some more risk on this strategy than monthly rotation?
• If you were only looking for long term (5 years or further out) gains, what percentage of your portfolio would you put into these two strategies?

Any insight is much appreciated!

Stiff I have one additional question. For your returns, do you contemplate the trading fees and/or short term capital gains tax implications? This is definitely great work. Thanks for sharing.

 

[culdeus]

Can anyone get me behind the blackrock wall for model portfolio updates?

They quit letting schmucks like me look at their models for some reason.

 

[Mario Kart]

IAG

What is the outlook for you guys and this stock? Long term? Short term to "double" and sell? Or, what?

 

[fantasycurse42]

Siff - I see a new tab on your site for weekly rotation. A few quick questions, figure I throw them out here in case anyone else was wondering too.

• I know with the monthly rotation there is IEF should things turn bearish, I assume the weekly rotation also has some type of safety net should the market turn negative?
• While looking for 1% gains, I assume there is some more risk on this strategy than monthly rotation?
• If you were only looking for long term (5 years or further out) gains, what percentage of your portfolio would you put into these two strategies?

Any insight is much appreciated!

I must have missed this:

• The ETF selected MUST be in a current Bullish Trend – If not defer to the next best ETF
• If the top 5 ETFs are in all Bearish Daily Trends the model goes to Cash for the week.
• If the Top ETF has a previous week gain greater than 10% – defer to the next best ETF. – I do this because the odds of a pullback are high

I don't see anything listed this week, so I assume that means this week is cash?

Looking at the dates, it appears you list the close of one and the pick of another on Fridays (or the last day of the trading week if market is closed on a Friday)?

 

[siffoin]

Siff - I see a new tab on your site for weekly rotation. A few quick questions, figure I throw them out here in case anyone else was wondering too.

• I know with the monthly rotation there is IEF should things turn bearish, I assume the weekly rotation also has some type of safety net should the market turn negative?
• While looking for 1% gains, I assume there is some more risk on this strategy than monthly rotation?
• If you were only looking for long term (5 years or further out) gains, what percentage of your portfolio would you put into these two strategies?

Any insight is much appreciated!

I must have missed this:

• The ETF selected MUST be in a current Bullish Trend – If not defer to the next best ETF
• If the top 5 ETFs are in all Bearish Daily Trends the model goes to Cash for the week.
• If the Top ETF has a previous week gain greater than 10% – defer to the next best ETF. – I do this because the odds of a pullback are high

I don't see anything listed this week, so I assume that means this week is cash?

Looking at the dates, it appears you list the close of one and the pick of another on Fridays (or the last day of the trading week if market is closed on a Friday)?

Ok. Let me address these questions:

1) I'm not suggesting anyone place a trade based on the weekly rotation strategy...and I'm purposely lagging it 1 week...that's why you don't see a pick for this week. There's a lot of reasons for this...first - if you can't place no commission Fidelity trades you can't match the performance. There might be a time when I do post it in real time. Let me think on it.

2) Risk: I'm personally risk adverse. I believe the riskiest strategy is Buy and Hold. Determining and Rotating into the Strongest Performing Sectors on a regular basis (weekly, monthly) has an element of risk - but the risk assumed is going to be relatively short term. A worst case scenario is a flash crash. If we look at the Flash Crash of May 6, 2010, the Weekly Rotation was in $TLT (open on May 3rd at $91.42 and closed on May 7 at $95.58). The Monthly Rotation was in $IJR (open April 30 @ $62.91 and close on May 28 at $58.41)...the Flash Crash was able to recover much of the loss over that month. Perhaps the Weekly Rotation was just lucky selecting $TLT the week prior to the flash crash. I can envision a scenario where there'd be a flash crash and one would be stuck...I need to think through how to handle such a situation (just another reason to lag weekly picks). Though I believe no one knows the future...I do think there are "tells". Unfortunately I don't have access to HFT algos, I'm not too big to fail and I can't pay off politicians...so I spend time looking for those tells. There is no magic is selecting the ETF's either. No magic indicator. ETFs are selected based on price over a series of time frames. That's why I can go back and know "$XYZ" would have been the pick on a given date in the past. PRICE RULES ALL.

3) Portfolio allocation to strategies. If I had a $100k portfolio- I might structure it as follows: (I'm confident I'm not structured this way...as I have more in futs and more in cash right now)

• $25k Dividend/Growth Fund
• $25k Monthly Sector Rotation
• $20k Futures/Options
• $15k Weekly Sector Rotation
• $15k Cash

Stock picking for home runs is really hard to do consistently. You get years like last year and everyone things they are Barry Bonds though. My guess is people mostly invested into individual stocks are flatish/down on the year - unless they hold one of the few outliers. I think it's really tough to beat the $SPY..and if you are going to buy and hold...that is the one to buy and hold.

4) I added the Weekly Rotation Picks from July 2007-April 2009. Basically exploring the market as it nears a bull market high; reaches a bull market high; rolls over into a bear market; then bottoms- about 100 weeks of data. Over that time the Weekly Rotation was up just over 60% - while the $SPY was down about 40%. For 2014- Weekly Rotation is up about 17% vs the $SPY 2%. ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?

5) I added the "rules" to the page - just so anyone reading could understand why I might not pick the top performing sector or why the strategy might go to cash. Basically there's no need to force a trade when the entire market is bearish.

6) The strategy is run on Friday after the close (or over the weekend)- that selects the best performing sector. That ETF is then purchased at the OPEN on the next trading day (Monday). The position is closed on the last trading day of the week (Friday) at the CLOSE. You might notice that if the same ETF is selected 2+ weeks- it will close on Friday and then open on the following Monday at a different price - because the strategy is always in cash over the weekends.

7) Everyone's tax situation is different. I trade/invest within a corporate entity...most people don't. But here's my thoughts on taxes from stock investments. Paying taxes on gains is far better than writing off loses.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

TNH is looking very attractive.

 

[fantasycurse42]

4) I added the Weekly Rotation Picks from July 2007-April 2009. Basically exploring the market as it nears a bull market high; reaches a bull market high; rolls over into a bear market; then bottoms- about 100 weeks of data. Over that time the Weekly Rotation was up just over 60% - while the $SPY was down about 40%. For 2014- Weekly Rotation is up about 17% vs the $SPY 2%. ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?

As usual awesome stuff above

I am extremely entertained!! You've seen how terrible I am at making picks! I, probably like most in this thread pay about $8 per trade, so the performance would lag, but still be decently ahead of the S&P this year...

Obviously the risk is understood, but any chance on updating this in live time over the next few months?

 

[Arid Filch]

Anyone have thoughts on Yandex?

It's been a rough year and Putin's comments this past week which seem benign to me, appear to have driven the stock down another 20%. Friday's action was interesting but I don't know what to conclude. So what do you guys think, is this a good entry point or is it heading lower?

Also, does anyone have an opinion on the payday loan, pawnbroker, prepaid card sector?

I am trying to decide between EZCorp and GreenDot. What can you guys tell me?

Yandex has gone straight up since then. Got in at 24, now at 31.60. EZCorp was looking like it was going to take time to develop but some news came out today and it jumped 19%, leaving me 15% in the black. What can I say, guys. I guess I am just really smart. Eminence wants me to join his hedge fund but we haven't been able to come to terms on compensation.

 

[sbonomo]

Anyone have thoughts on Yandex?

It's been a rough year and Putin's comments this past week which seem benign to me, appear to have driven the stock down another 20%. Friday's action was interesting but I don't know what to conclude. So what do you guys think, is this a good entry point or is it heading lower?

Also, does anyone have an opinion on the payday loan, pawnbroker, prepaid card sector?

I am trying to decide between EZCorp and GreenDot. What can you guys tell me?

Yandex has gone straight up since then. Got in at 24, now at 31.60. EZCorp was looking like it was going to take time to develop but some news came out today and it jumped 19%, leaving me 15% in the black. What can I say, guys. I guess I am just really smart. Eminence wants me to join his hedge fund but we haven't been able to come to terms on compensation.

You can't be serious right.....

 

[Johnnymac]

When will GM be a good buy?

 

[djmich]

Siff - I see a new tab on your site for weekly rotation. A few quick questions, figure I throw them out here in case anyone else was wondering too.

• I know with the monthly rotation there is IEF should things turn bearish, I assume the weekly rotation also has some type of safety net should the market turn negative?
• While looking for 1% gains, I assume there is some more risk on this strategy than monthly rotation?
• If you were only looking for long term (5 years or further out) gains, what percentage of your portfolio would you put into these two strategies?

Any insight is much appreciated!

I must have missed this:

• The ETF selected MUST be in a current Bullish Trend – If not defer to the next best ETF
• If the top 5 ETFs are in all Bearish Daily Trends the model goes to Cash for the week.
• If the Top ETF has a previous week gain greater than 10% – defer to the next best ETF. – I do this because the odds of a pullback are high

I don't see anything listed this week, so I assume that means this week is cash?

Looking at the dates, it appears you list the close of one and the pick of another on Fridays (or the last day of the trading week if market is closed on a Friday)?

Siff, thanks for posting input on the weekly sector rotation. if you dont mind a few dumb and hopefully one or two less dumb questions.

What exactly is a bullish trend (or bearish for that matter), is this a basic price trend such as "up the most over x time period" or a more complicated calculation you are using...i'm trying to figure out if i can do this myself or if this is where the SH charts come into play

10 days = calendar days?

Would you consider more than one ETF in this strategy for diversification if more than one is strong

Why cash over the weekend, did the data prove that out or just more following the principle of holding without ability to sell is not good

Would you short specific sectors if that is what the trend told you was the best bet

Thanks man, appreciate your willingness to discuss your thought process

 

[siffoin]

Siff - I see a new tab on your site for weekly rotation. A few quick questions, figure I throw them out here in case anyone else was wondering too.

• I know with the monthly rotation there is IEF should things turn bearish, I assume the weekly rotation also has some type of safety net should the market turn negative?
• While looking for 1% gains, I assume there is some more risk on this strategy than monthly rotation?
• If you were only looking for long term (5 years or further out) gains, what percentage of your portfolio would you put into these two strategies?

Any insight is much appreciated!

I must have missed this:

• The ETF selected MUST be in a current Bullish Trend – If not defer to the next best ETF
• If the top 5 ETFs are in all Bearish Daily Trends the model goes to Cash for the week.
• If the Top ETF has a previous week gain greater than 10% – defer to the next best ETF. – I do this because the odds of a pullback are high

I don't see anything listed this week, so I assume that means this week is cash?

Looking at the dates, it appears you list the close of one and the pick of another on Fridays (or the last day of the trading week if market is closed on a Friday)?

Siff, thanks for posting input on the weekly sector rotation. if you dont mind a few dumb and hopefully one or two less dumb questions.

What exactly is a bullish trend (or bearish for that matter), is this a basic price trend such as "up the most over x time period" or a more complicated calculation you are using...i'm trying to figure out if i can do this myself or if this is where the SH charts come into play

10 days = calendar days?

Would you consider more than one ETF in this strategy for diversification if more than one is strong

Why cash over the weekend, did the data prove that out or just more following the principle of holding without ability to sell is not good

Would you short specific sectors if that is what the trend told you was the best bet

Thanks man, appreciate your willingness to discuss your thought process

Ok. Let's make sure everyone is on the same page here:

1) I appreciate all of the questions because I'm just a one man show and the questions force me to think through and solve problems. It's really one of the primary reasons I post.

2) "Selections" I make are not a recommendation for anyone to buy. The Weekly Top Sector Rotation Strategy is in a testing phase and is not implemented. And I'm deliberately lagging the selection to protect you guys from yourselves.

3) The Monthly Top Sector Rotation Strategy imo is a full go. Again, I'm not recommending anyone follow along. I'm just posting "information" and what you do with said information is on you (que lawyers). I can tell you that over 10 years time the Monthly Sector Rotation wins about 75% of the time and beats the $SPY about 62% of the time. However on any given month results will vary. It's a long term investment strategy - that focus on determine the best performing of 6 major sectors (Lrg cap, small cap, mid cap, Intl, Emerg Mkts; and Bonds) each month and purchasing that sector- holding for a minimum of 1 month. Assess on a monthly basis. Think of this as just one tool of an investment toolbox.

Now to the questions:

1) In simple terms a bull trend could be defined as "over a specific time frame price is GENERALLY moving up." A bear trend is just the opposite "over a specific time frame price is GENERALLY moving down." Now different people measure "trend" differently. And trend will look very different on different time frames. A monthly time frame looks different from a weekly time frame -> daily -> hourly -> minute. Personally I think investors want to pay attention to Daily/Weekly time frames. For shorter term "trades" one would want to pay attention to Daily/Hourly time frames.

2) I've said this before - but some of the indicators I use are mine alone - and while I'm willing to share the results of the indicators freely, I'm not willing to share the recipe of the indicator. That's not to say you can't take the idea of trying to "Identify the Top Performing Sector and Rotating into it on X Timeframe". My guess is the results of our studies would be slightly different. In the same way that 2 fantasy football analysts might come to different conclusions on the top QB for 2014 (one might suggest P. Manning would be the top QB; while another would suggest A. Rogers to be the top QB).

3) Your question about "diversifying" into multiple ETFs with the strategy - I'm trying to develop a very simple trading/investing strategy. The rules are pretty straight forward. That way we don't get caught up in cherry picking from past results due to hindsight. Run the study...select the top sector...wait for the results...record the results. No coulda woulda shoulda's. The selection process is based on price too. Price from a date in the past is what it is. And it's easy for me to compare price from the ETF "portfolio" against one another and determine which was the "top" performing. And while past performance is no guarantee of future results...I think having 10+ years of data from both bull and bear markets is enough to validate the strategy.

4) Your question about cash over the weekend - The reason is this is a WEEKLY Rotation Strategy. Open Monday - Close Friday. I think it is important to note regarding the Monthly Rotation Strategy - it opens the position near the close on the last trading day of the month and closes the position near the close on the last trading day of the month. Why the last trading day? Because historically the market has a significant bullish bias on the first trading day of the month. The gain from buying on the last day of the month vs the first day of the month from 2003-2013 is greater than 200%...or more than the entire gain from a buy and hold of the SPY over that 10 year time period.

5) There aren't no commission Fidelity bear funds for the Weekly Rotation Strategy. And when the market is bearish in the Monthly Rotation Strategy it tends to select $IEF (Bond Fund).

Let me put this out there: Can investing/trading be more of a simple process?

Analyze the market regularly. Have a method to determine when the market is bullish and when the market is bearish. In bull markets invest in the top performing sector. In a bear markets go to cash and wait for the next bull market.

 

[fantasycurse42]

SIff, I think you answered just about anything I can think of.... Last question I have:

You mention you're testing the weekly rotation, what are the deciding factors for determining the test is complete? At what point would you feel comfortable posting them in live time?

Thanks again, good stuff!

 

[djmich]

thanks siff, appreciate your response

 

[St. Louis Bob]

DDD

ETA

Good couple of days for GOOG too. Hope I didn't miss that opportunity to buy some more.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Bought 10 GOOGL today and if we get another dip, will be adding more. They have so many great things in the pipeline, this looks like a grand slam.

 

[General Malaise]

Today is fun.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Today is fun.

You're welcome.

 

[General Malaise]

Today is fun.

You're welcome.

Not too late...

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Sweet Bobby Jesus. What's driving this, GM?

 

[General Malaise]

Sweet Bobby Jesus. What's driving this, GM?

IMO

 

[Bob Sacamano]

wow