Binky The Doormat
Footballguy
read the article and he's also saying they have no shorts (how can you trust the guy though ...)
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Stock Thread (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
ghostguy123
Footballguy
You definitely cant trust him but look at it this way if he's been buying, he would only announce it after he's done buying.
Yeah, like it was big news when Buffet bought 45 million worth of delta at like $46 a piece. But that's at $22 now so it doesn't necessarily mean they were great buys, at least not by the standards people here are looking for.
None of them have any idea. They are all just forecasting end of world numbers while they buy.
For a company like Disney, my thought is to throw out 2020 earnings entirely, instead think about 2021/22. Will earnings bounce back to say 2019 levels? How long before things resemble “normal “.
For Disney, this is fair question.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Probably a few years. People with less disposable income, more people maybe start emergency funds, and people will be scared of huge crowds for a long time
Capella
Footballguy
If magic kingdom opened tomorrow it would be at capacity. Don’t understate how psychotic Disney fans are for that brand.
chet
Footballguy
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
Agreed, not sure how anyone can have any confidence about this. 30 days is a maybe at this point.
Capella
Footballguy
My wife is in a huge Disney Facebook group. People on there asking if they’ll be open April 1st and saying they can’t wait for the doors to re-open. Will be flooded.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Just because he says it doesn’t mean that governors will do it. If the numbers keep getting worse in places like New York and California—no way Cuomo and Newsom tell people to go back to work. Trumps love with the economy and dismissiveness with the virus was a big factor in destroying our economy. While I do think that our markets will bounce sometime soon and don’t disagree with your overall outlook—I don’t think that this get back to work dynamic will sit well. I can personally tell you that there is no way in hell that i’ll go back to work in 15 days and compromise my and my family’s health because of something that greedy idiot says. I’ll use my vacation days if I have to.
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jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I’d expect there to be a big bounce. I’m not sure we’ve seen a bottom yet—but I do think that we should be getting some nice big positive days here in the mix soon.
commoncents
Footballguy
Agreed. The governors will not allow their people to go back to work, but Trump could use it as political cover that he wasn't responsible for the individual states' shutdown.
As investors, we need to balance Trump's desire to get re-elected with what a sitting president "should" do. It would not surprise me to see Trump open up the US, the market gets its bump, and then long term our healthcare system falls into chaos, and we are back at step one again.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
At 2200 on the SP500, I’m more worried about getting the 30% I have in cash into the market than any losses I might face on the 70% I now have invested.
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
I'm having a difficult time comprehending this. With all that we're currently going through in this world, people are actually worried about when Disney ####### World is going to reopen? This is what's on their mind? Who are these people? What world do they live in?
The General
Footballguy
beef
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
I grab her phone every night to read it. People on there talking about how they hope they make their April 10th cruise. It’s INSANE.
People who have upcoming Disney cruises legitimately think they’re getting on them. Amazing.
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matuski
Footballguy
What is going on is largely manufactured.
Which is why we are all looking to buy down here.
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Capella
Footballguy
CR69
Footballguy
We were originally scheduled to stay on property on April 8th. Still no cancelation from Disney.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
April 1st? That’s ridiculous. But so is “a huge Disney Facebook group”. I know the kind of folks, have friends in the wife’s circle that go 2x per year and help plan trips for others just for fun. Nice people. A bit crazy though.
Having said that, the pent up demand to go will be insane.
Capella
Footballguy
Sputnikv8
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
To be clear Trump was very clear that he would address hotspots differently...he didn't say "the entire country goes back to work after the 15 days"
Also, governors will do what they see as prudent. It makes much more sense to have a local strategy. New York isn't Iowa.
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TripItUp
Footballguy
To be clear Trump was very clear that he would address hotspots differently...he didn't say "the entire country goes back to work after the 15 days"
Also, governors will do what they see as prudent. It makes much more sense to have a local strategy. New York isn't Iowa.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
That still won’t work. What is to stop somebody from California from driving to Arizona or Nevada if they are not social distancing and California is? Florida was late to the party when it comes to the social distancing—and now they have a huge problem on their hands too. If Trump tells people to get back to work—and new hot spots arise after that happens—you can just take another bazooka to our markets. I don’t think that this idea is nearly as positive as you are making it out to be. It’s a very risky idea that has limited upside. If you think that opening movie theaters and restaurants in Iowa is going to somehow get the wheels going on our economy—we’ll just agree to disagree.
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TripItUp
Footballguy
Didn’t say it would work....that’s a better topic for another thread.
for this thread, how the federal govt addresses the economy and the virus impacts the stock market...that’s all I care about for this thread.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Nugget
Footballguy
Still think we are early. I don’t want to get back in until I see how the market reacts to the unemployment numbers and what the death rates look like next Monday.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Huh? It doesn’t belong in this thread? You dont think that if Trump tells people to go back to work-and new hot spots arise—that it won’t ’t effect the stock market? C’mon man—you’re an intelligent dude but you lost me on this.
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TripItUp
Footballguy
Fair, and certainly a prudent approach. But remember, the market bounces before it's clear that things are all rosey. Almost every major crash recovery has proven this.
TripItUp
Footballguy
I just don't think debating policy is what this topic is for. I believe that Trump's approach will be good for the market and I will play the market accordingly. I'm not as interested in debating whether Trump's policy is the right policy for purposes of this thread although the long term effectiveness of the policy would have an impact on the market obviously. If that makes sense. Trying to keep politics out of this thread since there is an entire forum dedicated to it.
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jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I’m not debating policy. I’m merely saying that the “approach” that you keep mentioning as being a golden goose has a potential major downside in regards to the stock market. I’m not sure why you aren’t understanding that. In any case—enjoy your evening.
To me it's a tough call and could go either way. Like here's the piece Buffet wrote in October of 2008: http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/261280
Stuff stayed pretty rocky and still had a ways to go down, but he did pretty well anyways over the last decade...until the last month or so. I'm sure he deleveraged this all some as it went along though, that's kind of what he seems to do at Berkshire as well.
Here they are acting mega fast. And they are going even bigger. And in theory it won't be super bad if it was only a couple of weeks most places. But then the question is still - what kind of triggers lurk haha. If these crappy mortgage based securities they are doing again start to get screwed, and all of the junk bonds, etc, etc... And yeah - how long do we have to deal with bad economic numbers and coronavirus news.
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TripItUp
Footballguy
Moonlight
Footballguy
There well could be a bounce back tomorrow especially if there is a deal reached. Its happened every time money has been thrown to support the economy deal with the virus.
But the virus isn't going away and reality will set in and the market will go down again.One infected person started the pandemic and its going to continue to flare up, we haven't even spiked yet in the US.
People will continue to be very reluctant to travel, eat out, visit amusement parks, go to plays, social events, stores or have weddings until there is a vaccine and better treatment methods. Isolation is the best "treatment" for now and that will effect the economy significantly in a downward direction.
But the virus isn't going away and reality will set in and the market will go down again.One infected person started the pandemic and its going to continue to flare up, we haven't even spiked yet in the US.
People will continue to be very reluctant to travel, eat out, visit amusement parks, go to plays, social events, stores or have weddings until there is a vaccine and better treatment methods. Isolation is the best "treatment" for now and that will effect the economy significantly in a downward direction.
My experiences recently I expect to change - builders have been tossing up houses left and right. There's been ALL KINDS of commercial development in the area, all the modern fancy strip malls and restaurants. You go to the mall, it's packed to the gills. Even in late February this was true. I can't even get EV parking, it's terrible.
I expect the picture to look different - for a decent while... especially here in Illinois.
I expect the picture to look different - for a decent while... especially here in Illinois.
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Contrast this with the 2008 - 2009 era, no one was building anything. Not residential, not commercial. The malls were super empty. And it's just been this slow steady uptick until we reached this record level of consumer confidence where everyone is making and blowing money left and right. No matter how much stimulus they pump in, it's going to be hard to just snap right back to that.
cosjobs
Footballguy
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
Unemployment numbers come out Thursday as well, if it’s really 20-25% that’s going to hurt. They may not even announce numbers, rather categories, which could be worse. Not knowing information usually spooks markets.
