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Stock Thread (29 Viewers)

Invisibility trying to make another push. There has to be something going on at this point, right?
SpeculationI'm holding 750 shares @ $1.78. I hope something is going on.
Held this freaking pig for several years and finally sold because I was tired of looking at it. I sold it last week. On Tuesday. It's been straight up since. Unreal.

Buying more EXO today.
Tech company? That seems... abnormal for you.

 
Invisibility trying to make another push. There has to be something going on at this point, right?
SpeculationI'm holding 750 shares @ $1.78. I hope something is going on.
It makes sense, given what their needs are. But for a company with 40+ billion shares outstanding, I'd think there would be a lot more than 300k changing hands in advance of a serious takeover bid. I was thinking more of something like a financing arrangement. If that arrangement happened to be with Tesla, all the better.
Interesting in relation to the timing of the links in the Tesla thread, though. Car scheduled for 2017. Batteries have to come before cars. Graphite has to come before batteries. Mining has to come before graphite. Or you have to sell your soul to China, which doesn't seem very Musk.

http://www.techtimes.com/articles/10896/20140721/tesla-35k-vehicle-coming-market.htm

 
Same.

And 6.50ish.

And 7ish.

:bag:
I'm happy for you both. I hope the U308 miners makes you even wealthier. Like soon yo.
I hate uranium like a diseased snake. Wish I never heard of it.

Which just means I should buy. :bag:

Check out EXOXF.
You know what's always reassuring? Going to look for financial statements of a company and not being able to find them.

You just made that company up to see if people were paying attention to you, didn't you?

 
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Same.

And 6.50ish.

And 7ish.

:bag:
I'm happy for you both. I hope the U308 miners makes you even wealthier. Like soon yo.
I hate uranium like a diseased snake. Wish I never heard of it.

Which just means I should buy. :bag:

Check out EXOXF.
You know what's always reassuring? Going to look for financial statements of a company and not being able to find them.

You just made that company up to see if people were paying attention to you, didn't you?
lol....I hope they are a real company. :oldunsure:

http://www.exou.com/#!/

 
Trucking companies all doing well in the market in Q4 driven by the strong lead indicators in Retail. Q4 Spot rate market has been extremely hot and capacity tight.

Most of the stocks in this area reflect that but I think there is still value in some of the non-assets who should benefit from the hit spot market rates, specifically CH Robinson $56.35 (CHRW), and Landstar $55.51 (LSTR) until Q4 earnings are announced.

Among the asset providers, I like Swift (SWFC) below $22 ($22.92 now) and JB Hunt (JBHT) below $70 ($75.98) if they happen to fall.

A company I really like is Heartland Express (HTLD) currently trading at $18.03 still riding high from the purchase of a very well run private company, Gordon Trucking in October. I'll like pick them up below $18 with an eye on a longer term hold unless Q4 earnings knock it out of the park.
Update

HTLD: 19.47 (+1.44)

CHRW : $57.40 (+$1.05)

LSTR: $57.311 (+$1.86)

Swift heading below $22 where I think it's a buy.
Update:

HTLD: 21.09 (+3.26/+18%)

CHRW: $59.60 ( +3.25/+5.7%)

LSTR $58.49 (+2.98/+5.4%)

SWFT: $21.69 - Now a strong buy for a long position through most of 2014.

JBHT: $78.92 - would still lay off
Nice on SWFT.. :thumbup:
Thanks. I think there's additional value there this year as they have been pretty aggressive at m&a and I expect that to continue.

JBHT came close to getting below 70 but I don't think it's going to get there. I still think there's some Value there below $72 where it currently sits. Similar for CHRW 54
Updated thoughts on SWFT? I assume the drop today was the revenue miss? They're back around what WAS your buy point. You still like them for the rest of 2014? Different thoughts on an entry point?
Q2 was tough in transportation. Capacity is tight which should bode well, but there were a lot of issues left over by the horrible weather that severely impacted operating efficiencies.

I believe they are poised to put up good numbers in Q3 and giant numbers in Q4. They also have a heavy acquisition strategy going forward that if done properly should continue to drive them upward. Like everybody else that posted poor Q2 numbers, I think they are better than what the market is giving them and I think there is good upside at $21. I see them as good buy below $22 with $23-$24 target easy in Q3 and above $25 in Q4. If they do make another good acquisition this year and post a solid Q4, I think there's an upside around $30.

 
Wish I could talk more about the AMZN discussion.
How do you mean? I haven't gone back through this thread but was considering getting back into AMZN if it busts thru 310.

Also, had to drop this (douchey) comment in somewhere b/c i'm in on the ground floor of LOCO :towelwave:

 
Not sure if this is the place to ask, but what are thoughts on company stock purchase plasn. The way it was explained to me, if I contribute, when they buy stock for the plan members, it's purchased at the lowest price the stock has been at in the past 90 days, less 15%. Thoughts on this as a long term savings plan, and how would this compare with making similar contributions into a standard company pension plan (over the long term)?

 
Not sure if this is the place to ask, but what are thoughts on company stock purchase plasn. The way it was explained to me, if I contribute, when they buy stock for the plan members, it's purchased at the lowest price the stock has been at in the past 90 days, less 15%. Thoughts on this as a long term savings plan, and how would this compare with making similar contributions into a standard company pension plan (over the long term)?
I max out my ESPP and use the proceeds to fund various tax advantaged accounts (Roth IRA, 529, etc). The way I figure it, it's money I never see in my bottom line paycheck and it's not easy to beat a minimum 15% return per quarter (usually more like 20-25% in bullish conditions). Be careful of selling too early though. You generally have to hold ESPP stock for two years for it to be a qualifying disposition for tax purposes.That said, I wouldn't contribute to an ESPP in place of things like contributing to a 401k up to the company match. Beyond the match, it depends on the options in the company 401k and the long-term performance of the company's stock.

 
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Trucking companies all doing well in the market in Q4 driven by the strong lead indicators in Retail. Q4 Spot rate market has been extremely hot and capacity tight.

Most of the stocks in this area reflect that but I think there is still value in some of the non-assets who should benefit from the hit spot market rates, specifically CH Robinson $56.35 (CHRW), and Landstar $55.51 (LSTR) until Q4 earnings are announced.

Among the asset providers, I like Swift (SWFC) below $22 ($22.92 now) and JB Hunt (JBHT) below $70 ($75.98) if they happen to fall.

A company I really like is Heartland Express (HTLD) currently trading at $18.03 still riding high from the purchase of a very well run private company, Gordon Trucking in October. I'll like pick them up below $18 with an eye on a longer term hold unless Q4 earnings knock it out of the park.
Update

HTLD: 19.47 (+1.44)

CHRW : $57.40 (+$1.05)

LSTR: $57.311 (+$1.86)

Swift heading below $22 where I think it's a buy.
Update:

HTLD: 21.09 (+3.26/+18%)

CHRW: $59.60 ( +3.25/+5.7%)

LSTR $58.49 (+2.98/+5.4%)

SWFT: $21.69 - Now a strong buy for a long position through most of 2014.

JBHT: $78.92 - would still lay off
Nice on SWFT.. :thumbup:
Thanks. I think there's additional value there this year as they have been pretty aggressive at m&a and I expect that to continue.

JBHT came close to getting below 70 but I don't think it's going to get there. I still think there's some Value there below $72 where it currently sits. Similar for CHRW 54
Updated thoughts on SWFT? I assume the drop today was the revenue miss? They're back around what WAS your buy point. You still like them for the rest of 2014? Different thoughts on an entry point?
Q2 was tough in transportation. Capacity is tight which should bode well, but there were a lot of issues left over by the horrible weather that severely impacted operating efficiencies.

I believe they are poised to put up good numbers in Q3 and giant numbers in Q4. They also have a heavy acquisition strategy going forward that if done properly should continue to drive them upward. Like everybody else that posted poor Q2 numbers, I think they are better than what the market is giving them and I think there is good upside at $21. I see them as good buy below $22 with $23-$24 target easy in Q3 and above $25 in Q4. If they do make another good acquisition this year and post a solid Q4, I think there's an upside around $30.
Here's the Q2 call analysis from Stifel Nicolaus

  • [SIZE=10pt]The company’s 2H14 guidance still appears aggressive, despite the reduction.[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt] The company expects 3Q14 EPS to range from $0.33-$0.37 and 4Q14 EPS to range from $0.47-$0.52. However, the company’s recent EPS projections have left little room for the unexpected. If everything were to go exactly as planned, the company could likely show the improvement they are projecting. But, there are plenty of internal/external factors which could hinder improvement (e.g. prolonged start-up expenses for existing dedicated contracts and/or new expenses relating to future contracts, an elongated timeframe for the integration of Central Refrigerated, or simply winter weather—just to name a few). As well, it’s rare for any trucking company to do upwards of 40% of their full year EPS in the 4Q, as the company is projecting. Part of that is a result of interest savings, which should lend $0.04-$0.05 to the 2H14 improvement, but, in total, the guidance for 4Q14 still feels especially sanguine—and we are inclined to peg our estimate below the company’s guided range.[/SIZE]
  • [SIZE=10pt]Interest savings larger than expected:[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt] The expected savings from the debt restructuring which is currently underway and the expected repayment of the company’s 10% notes in 4Q14 should add $0.04-$0.05 in EPS in 2H14 and an additional $0.18-$0.19 in 2015—higher than our previous estimates and higher than the Street consensus estimate prior to the company’s call on Friday, June 25th.[/SIZE]
  • [SIZE=10pt]Updating Estimates:[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt] Recent results have been mired by faster growth of low margin businesses (i.e. intermodal and brokerage), driver pay headwinds (and the delay between awarding pay increases and receiving compensatory rate increases from customers), start-up costs associated with costly new dedicated business, and struggles to integrate Central Refrigerated. Many of these headwinds will continue into the latter half of the current year and onward. With this perspective, we are increasing our top line growth estimates for the company, but we are projecting a slightly slower improvement in margins. We are also updating our model to reflect the lower interest expense in 2015/2016. As a result, our 3Q14 estimate remains $0.35, though our 4Q14 estimate declines from $0.47 to $0.40 (FY2014 estimate declines from $1.27 to $1.20). Our 2015 and 2016 EPS estimates increase from $1.55 and $1.75 to $1.58 and $1.82, respectively.[/SIZE]
  • [SIZE=10pt]Maintain Hold:[/SIZE][SIZE=10pt] Our 12-month fair value estimate becomes $26 (or 14.5x our 2016 EPS estimate of $1.82). With current sentiment on the name ubiquitously negative and with the potential, in our view, for another guidance shortfall in 4Q14, we are inclined to stay on the sidelines for now.[/SIZE]
 
No concerns about their inability to find enough drivers to match their growth?
That's a concern for everybody at this point and one of the reasons they'll be looking at acquisitions. These days acquisitions are more about drivers than anything else. The equipment gets sold off and most of the customers dropped unless they are strategic.

They are also making a big push to be a big Intermodal player where they are behind. I believe they may have gotten some commitments from a blue chip customer in that area (not my company). If they can use that to get a toe hold to build that business segment, which I believe is a key piece of their strategy, it's another plus.

 
Siff just tweeted an "uh oh", perhaps the Perfect Indicator just swung from Bull to Bear today?
The PI has been pretty accurate at identifying turn points in the mkt. In the past 5 years or so it has pegged a number of those points. At bearish turns the mkt typically dropped about minimum 50+ pts (sometimes it's been more, maybe a few times a little less). At bullish turns the markets has run minimum 100+ pts. In hindsight we can say ignoring the bearish PI signals and adding on the bullish ones would have been the ideal strategy since the 09 lows. But one could definitely TRADE the PI successfully- if the win rate isn't 100% it's pretty close.

Now we have the PI flipping bearish today. So we can probably expect a drop of 50+ pts from the highs of today. A PI trend trend typically last at a minimum of a few weeks...sometimes they can last for months.

What has me more piqued is that longer term DOW major bull/bear indicator. This was an indicator that I discovered/developed last year - and posted an article at Steelhedge about a impending drop- that didn't happen. But I've kept the chart and studied in the months since. I posted some charts of that with an explanation prior to the big drop today.

Honestly - if we were at some kind of significant top and this indicator were to peg it - I'd be shocked.

With that said - technically we're sitting on a pretty significant level of support and unfortunately the next level is about 130 SP500 pts from here at 1815ish.

We should see a bounce of some kind within a few days - it's what the charts look like when that bounce completes that will give a better picture of where we sit within the 5 year major bull trend.

Not including today's sell-off --the market action of the futs for the last few days - seems "off". I want to say something is rotten and the big boys have the message and are passing off to the bag holders. But that's probably just the pessimist in me. Color me concerned- but not panicked. Yet.
Picture getting clearer - and it's not looking good.

$ADRE probably going to remain top sector ETF for Aug - but 60m chart looks quite bearish - This is where I battle the trader vs. investor in me because I'd put high odds on it dropping to $40.25 then $39.75 in the next few days.

 
Siff just tweeted an "uh oh", perhaps the Perfect Indicator just swung from Bull to Bear today?
The PI has been pretty accurate at identifying turn points in the mkt. In the past 5 years or so it has pegged a number of those points. At bearish turns the mkt typically dropped about minimum 50+ pts (sometimes it's been more, maybe a few times a little less). At bullish turns the markets has run minimum 100+ pts. In hindsight we can say ignoring the bearish PI signals and adding on the bullish ones would have been the ideal strategy since the 09 lows. But one could definitely TRADE the PI successfully- if the win rate isn't 100% it's pretty close.

Now we have the PI flipping bearish today. So we can probably expect a drop of 50+ pts from the highs of today. A PI trend trend typically last at a minimum of a few weeks...sometimes they can last for months.

What has me more piqued is that longer term DOW major bull/bear indicator. This was an indicator that I discovered/developed last year - and posted an article at Steelhedge about a impending drop- that didn't happen. But I've kept the chart and studied in the months since. I posted some charts of that with an explanation prior to the big drop today.

Honestly - if we were at some kind of significant top and this indicator were to peg it - I'd be shocked.

With that said - technically we're sitting on a pretty significant level of support and unfortunately the next level is about 130 SP500 pts from here at 1815ish.

We should see a bounce of some kind within a few days - it's what the charts look like when that bounce completes that will give a better picture of where we sit within the 5 year major bull trend.

Not including today's sell-off --the market action of the futs for the last few days - seems "off". I want to say something is rotten and the big boys have the message and are passing off to the bag holders. But that's probably just the pessimist in me. Color me concerned- but not panicked. Yet.
Picture getting clearer - and it's not looking good.

$ADRE probably going to remain top sector ETF for Aug - but 60m chart looks quite bearish - This is where I battle the trader vs. investor in me because I'd put high odds on it dropping to $40.25 then $39.75 in the next few days.
:blackdot: ADRE getting spanked today... Still over 4% for the month, so happy regardless.

 
hmmm, i have a good chunk of my portfolio in cash....wondering if monday might be the entry point. Siff any update on next months sector? And did we ever figure out if we should be doubling up on AMZN?

 
hmmm, i have a good chunk of my portfolio in cash....wondering if monday might be the entry point. Siff any update on next months sector? And did we ever figure out if we should be doubling up on AMZN?
hard to bet against Amazon, right? i do think that the feud with Hachette has hurt them a bit and the fact that they blinked first in the court of public opinion seems out of character. maybe they are feeling a little vulnerable all of the sudden? doesn't help that the Fire phone isn't doing any business for them, right? it's not get any traction from what i understand.

 
hmmm, i have a good chunk of my portfolio in cash....wondering if monday might be the entry point. Siff any update on next months sector? And did we ever figure out if we should be doubling up on AMZN?
ADRE remains top sector for Aug. But 60m chart is bearish. I posted a couple of weeks ago that "the time to formulate a plan was now" (then). I hope folks paid attention. Lots of risk. We should bounce soon enough - but I'm thinking at a minimum we go towards 1850 on the SP500.

If that breaks it's probably not going to be just a 10% "correction." I've got a "perfect storm" of technical indicators lining up over the next days/weeks- and don't think this is a good time to be sailing your Andrea Gail into the brunt of it. Better to see if the storm passes by imo.

I've sold some things over the past couple of days - and looking for a spot to put on a major hedge.

Good luck!

 
hmmm, i have a good chunk of my portfolio in cash....wondering if monday might be the entry point. Siff any update on next months sector? And did we ever figure out if we should be doubling up on AMZN?
ADRE remains top sector for Aug. But 60m chart is bearish. I posted a couple of weeks ago that "the time to formulate a plan was now" (then). I hope folks paid attention. Lots of risk. We should bounce soon enough - but I'm thinking at a minimum we go towards 1850 on the SP500.

If that breaks it's probably not going to be just a 10% "correction." I've got a "perfect storm" of technical indicators lining up over the next days/weeks- and don't think this is a good time to be sailing your Andrea Gail into the brunt of it. Better to see if the storm passes by imo.

I've sold some things over the past couple of days - and looking for a spot to put on a major hedge.

Good luck!
Thanks for the update....some idiot hacked my twitter account with two followers (siff and one buddy). I need to get that back online for real time updates.

 
hmmm, i have a good chunk of my portfolio in cash....wondering if monday might be the entry point. Siff any update on next months sector? And did we ever figure out if we should be doubling up on AMZN?
Gut says a good entry point is not Monday. A good entry point may be in 2016.

 
NDLS - Noodles and Company

$27.35

I think this stock performs well in the longterm. They have teenagers cooking pasta so the overhead is very low and they are expanding like crazy. They are going to catch on, I can almost guarantee if there isn't one in your area there will be soon.

 
WWE Stock is up about 17% since I made mention awhile ago. The stock was undervalued and has begun correcting itself. I unfortunately had to sell my $582 worth to buy schoolbooks. -.-


($11.92 to $13.92.)

 
NDLS - Noodles and Company

$27.35

I think this stock performs well in the longterm. They have teenagers cooking pasta so the overhead is very low and they are expanding like crazy. They are going to catch on, I can almost guarantee if there isn't one in your area there will be soon.
Noodles & Potbelly

WWE Stock is up about 17% since I made mention awhile ago. The stock was undervalued and has begun correcting itself. I unfortunately had to sell my $582 worth to buy schoolbooks. -.-

($11.92 to $13.92.)
:lmao:

 
NDLS - Noodles and Company

$27.35

I think this stock performs well in the longterm. They have teenagers cooking pasta so the overhead is very low and they are expanding like crazy. They are going to catch on, I can almost guarantee if there isn't one in your area there will be soon.
Noodles & Potbelly

WWE Stock is up about 17% since I made mention awhile ago. The stock was undervalued and has begun correcting itself. I unfortunately had to sell my $582 worth to buy schoolbooks. -.-

($11.92 to $13.92.)
:lmao:
Why don't you short both of them and get back to me, old sport? :)

EDIT:

To counter that article, didn't Facebook's stock crash right after it went public? That's essentially what the article says about Noodles. I've actually worked in a Noodles restaurant and know the place is absolutely swamped; line out the door.

 
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NDLS - Noodles and Company

$27.35

I think this stock performs well in the longterm. They have teenagers cooking pasta so the overhead is very low and they are expanding like crazy. They are going to catch on, I can almost guarantee if there isn't one in your area there will be soon.
Noodles & Potbelly

WWE Stock is up about 17% since I made mention awhile ago. The stock was undervalued and has begun correcting itself. I unfortunately had to sell my $582 worth to buy schoolbooks. -.-

($11.92 to $13.92.)
:lmao:
Why don't you short both of them and get back to me, old sport? :)
why don't you go away....this is a thread for investors that actually put money into the market instead of making stupid predictions. Go hard delete your other thread.

 
NDLS - Noodles and Company

$27.35

I think this stock performs well in the longterm. They have teenagers cooking pasta so the overhead is very low and they are expanding like crazy. They are going to catch on, I can almost guarantee if there isn't one in your area there will be soon.
Noodles & Potbelly

WWE Stock is up about 17% since I made mention awhile ago. The stock was undervalued and has begun correcting itself. I unfortunately had to sell my $582 worth to buy schoolbooks. -.-

($11.92 to $13.92.)
:lmao:
Why don't you short both of them and get back to me, old sport? :)
why don't you go away....this is a thread for investors that actually put money into the market instead of making stupid predictions. Go hard delete your other thread.
Funny, my pick in the stock contest is doing better than some of you "investors". I threw out a 17% increase stock in a month. That seems like a pretty decent gain, no?

 
NDLS - Noodles and Company

$27.35

I think this stock performs well in the longterm. They have teenagers cooking pasta so the overhead is very low and they are expanding like crazy. They are going to catch on, I can almost guarantee if there isn't one in your area there will be soon.
I like that you back what you know. Or think you know. It's not a bad idea at all. But neither teenagers cooking nor the pasta itself would be classified as overhead.

Not really the point I want to make here, but if you already have a credibility problem, maybe don't compound it.

I actually like Noodles and Company for the most part, and I could see a short-term spike if the broader market doesn't drag them down. I'm not sure about the long-term for them, though. "Expanding like crazy" might actually be their problem. We touched on this a little with Potbelly around their IPO. Quality control can become an issue. But the bigger issue I'd see for them is that there are markets I can see them feeling the need to explore where they might be a colossal failure.

If they start getting into CA and NY, they might find the lines out the door difficult to maintain in those markets. At the risk of sounding LHUCKSian, shtickless restaurants serving carbs covered in different kinds of crap is great in the midwest, where a bunch of fat people don't give a damn what they shove into their gullets. People in SF and NY maybe not so much, though.

 
NDLS - Noodles and Company

$27.35

I think this stock performs well in the longterm. They have teenagers cooking pasta so the overhead is very low and they are expanding like crazy. They are going to catch on, I can almost guarantee if there isn't one in your area there will be soon.
Why should this noodle company be worthy of an investment over ShopHouse, the noodle-chain restaurant that is spun off of the already successful and proven Chipotle?

What impact do you see in them trying to compete with such a powerhouse franchise?

 

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