Siff just tweeted an "uh oh", perhaps the Perfect Indicator just swung from Bull to Bear today?
The PI has been pretty accurate at identifying turn points in the mkt. In the past 5 years or so it has pegged a number of those points. At bearish turns the mkt typically dropped about minimum 50+ pts (sometimes it's been more, maybe a few times a little less). At bullish turns the markets has run minimum 100+ pts. In hindsight we can say ignoring the bearish PI signals and adding on the bullish ones would have been the ideal strategy since the 09 lows. But one could definitely TRADE the PI successfully- if the win rate isn't 100% it's pretty close.
Now we have the PI flipping bearish today. So we can probably expect a drop of 50+ pts from the highs of today. A PI trend trend typically last at a minimum of a few weeks...sometimes they can last for months.
What has me more piqued is that longer term DOW major bull/bear indicator. This was an indicator that I discovered/developed last year - and posted an article at Steelhedge about a impending drop- that didn't happen. But I've kept the chart and studied in the months since. I posted some charts of that with an explanation prior to the big drop today.
Honestly - if we were at some kind of significant top and this indicator were to peg it - I'd be shocked.
With that said - technically we're sitting on a pretty significant level of support and unfortunately the next level is about 130 SP500 pts from here at 1815ish.
We should see a bounce of some kind within a few days - it's what the charts look like when that bounce completes that will give a better picture of where we sit within the 5 year major bull trend.
Not including today's sell-off --the market action of the futs for the last few days - seems "off". I want to say something is rotten and the big boys have the message and are passing off to the bag holders. But that's probably just the pessimist in me. Color me concerned- but not panicked. Yet.