Stock Thread (40 Viewers)

[identikit]

Take care of yourself Siff. Positive vibes your way. Hang in there and best of luck.

Ditto

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

Sorry to hear about that Siff. Best wishes to you.

 

[fantasycurse42]

First of all. THANK YOU ALL for the nice thoughts and wishes. It is sincerely appreciated.

But my point was really to just be honest as to why I've not been here while the $ADRE position has been dropping. I don't post here or elsewhere without giving serious thought - and want to make sure anyone following along doesn't feel that they are being left out or worse by my recent absence.

If we were to rank all 6 ETFs today:

$IVV (lrg cap) would be at the top of the list. But making a huge leap is $IEF (bonds) which is in 2nd place having languished in 5th-6th for quite some time. In fact it has been more than 2+ years since Bonds have been the top ranked ETF.

I think the IEF strength was at least partly due to uncertainty over what the Fed was going to say about interest rates. They had a bunch of above their average trading volume days last week before the end of the week Fed stuff. Although, now that it looks like the Fed will hold off on raising interest rates until the Spring, IEF has still traded both up and above average volume on Friday and Monday. Might be just general crappy market performance is the other big factor.

Out of ADRE at $40.50. Took the "don't let a winner turn into a loser" advice here... I understand that the strategy is to hold until the end of the month, but after being invested for 3 months, I decided I'll take a 2.5% gain and reenter at the end of the month instead of rolling the dice.

 

[Eminence]

Organovo is up 7.1% since purchase.

 

[siffoin]

First of all. THANK YOU ALL for the nice thoughts and wishes. It is sincerely appreciated.

But my point was really to just be honest as to why I've not been here while the $ADRE position has been dropping. I don't post here or elsewhere without giving serious thought - and want to make sure anyone following along doesn't feel that they are being left out or worse by my recent absence.

If we were to rank all 6 ETFs today:

$IVV (lrg cap) would be at the top of the list. But making a huge leap is $IEF (bonds) which is in 2nd place having languished in 5th-6th for quite some time. In fact it has been more than 2+ years since Bonds have been the top ranked ETF.

I think the IEF strength was at least partly due to uncertainty over what the Fed was going to say about interest rates. They had a bunch of above their average trading volume days last week before the end of the week Fed stuff. Although, now that it looks like the Fed will hold off on raising interest rates until the Spring, IEF has still traded both up and above average volume on Friday and Monday. Might be just general crappy market performance is the other big factor.

Out of ADRE at $40.50. Took the "don't let a winner turn into a loser" advice here... I understand that the strategy is to hold until the end of the month, but after being invested for 3 months, I decided I'll take a 2.5% gain and reenter at the end of the month instead of rolling the dice.

If $SPY is below $202 by end of the month you will have beaten it over the holding period. And that's pretty good and the system doing its job. Keep that in perspective. I wish it had been more but a win is a win.

 

[fantasycurse42]

First of all. THANK YOU ALL for the nice thoughts and wishes. It is sincerely appreciated.

But my point was really to just be honest as to why I've not been here while the $ADRE position has been dropping. I don't post here or elsewhere without giving serious thought - and want to make sure anyone following along doesn't feel that they are being left out or worse by my recent absence.

If we were to rank all 6 ETFs today:

$IVV (lrg cap) would be at the top of the list. But making a huge leap is $IEF (bonds) which is in 2nd place having languished in 5th-6th for quite some time. In fact it has been more than 2+ years since Bonds have been the top ranked ETF.

I think the IEF strength was at least partly due to uncertainty over what the Fed was going to say about interest rates. They had a bunch of above their average trading volume days last week before the end of the week Fed stuff. Although, now that it looks like the Fed will hold off on raising interest rates until the Spring, IEF has still traded both up and above average volume on Friday and Monday. Might be just general crappy market performance is the other big factor.

Out of ADRE at $40.50. Took the "don't let a winner turn into a loser" advice here... I understand that the strategy is to hold until the end of the month, but after being invested for 3 months, I decided I'll take a 2.5% gain and reenter at the end of the month instead of rolling the dice.

If $SPY is below $202 by end of the month you will have beaten it over the holding period. And that's pretty good and the system doing its job. Keep that in perspective. I wish it had been more but a win is a win.

No complaints at all, annually I'll take the 2.5% every 3 months year in and year out

It was up so much and turned bearish so quick, I decided I had to keep it a winner.

 

[General Malaise]

Treating the pullback in BioSyent as an opportunity to add to my position. GLA

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Treating the pullback in BioSyent as an opportunity to add to my position. GLA

Someone may have just asked you about this in jimtan

 

[fantasycurse42]

Treating the pullback in BioSyent as an opportunity to add to my position. GLA

Someone may have just asked you about this in jimtan

Been following this one and EXO...

Why the big fall today GM?

You still recommend both of these?

 

[General Malaise]

Treating the pullback in BioSyent as an opportunity to add to my position. GLA

Someone may have just asked you about this in jimtan

Been following this one and EXO...

Why the big fall today GM?

You still recommend both of these?

Yeah, long term holds on both. I don't have any clarity on the fall, but could be a simple case of a stock being overdue for a pullback. News hasn't changed, insiders aren't selling (to our knowledge) and earnings forecasts remain the same. I don't think any major players cover this thing, so no downgrade. Scuttlebutt is that it is being incorrectly identified among other pharmas for tax inversion, whatever that means.

 

[culdeus]

bioysnt is the vag thing right? Can you just call it Vagstock so I can keep it straight? tia

 

[culdeus]

Treating the pullback in BioSyent as an opportunity to add to my position. GLA

Someone may have just asked you about this in jimtan

Been following this one and EXO...

Why the big fall today GM?

You still recommend both of these?

Yeah, long term holds on both. I don't have any clarity on the fall, but could be a simple case of a stock being overdue for a pullback. News hasn't changed, insiders aren't selling (to our knowledge) and earnings forecasts remain the same. I don't think any major players cover this thing, so no downgrade. Scuttlebutt is that it is being incorrectly identified among other pharmas for tax inversion, whatever that means.

tax inversion is writing off lots of expenses in the US while claiming revenues overseas thus inverting the corporate tax from a liability to an asset. (this is the really basic version without any political speak so don't shoot me)

 

[Eminence]

ICEL is looking like a good buy low opportunity. If it stays this cheap, I'm going to buy some next paycheck.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

#### it. I'm going to start tailing him. In for 1500 shares.

 

[TheWalkmen]

ICEL is looking like a good buy low opportunity. If it stays this cheap, I'm going to buy some next paycheck.

Dodds?

 

[Gamma1210]

ICEL is looking like a good buy low opportunity. If it stays this cheap, I'm going to buy some next paycheck.

I know I'm going to regret asking but why do you think that?

 

[fantasycurse42]

#### it. I'm going to start tailing him. In for 1500 shares.

 

[General Malaise]

bioysnt is the vag thing right? Can you just call it Vagstock so I can keep it straight? tia

Nice turnaround today.

Thanks for the input on the tax inversions. I read about it yesterday. Sounds like Canada cracking down on companies that have been gaming the system from a tax standpoint. Cameco is in a lot of trouble over this or something similar. Set up a shell office in Switzerland to reduce taxable obligations.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

bioysnt is the vag thing right? Can you just call it Vagstock so I can keep it straight? tia

Nice turnaround today.

Thanks for the input on the tax inversions. I read about it yesterday. Sounds like Canada cracking down on companies that have been gaming the system from a tax standpoint. Cameco is in a lot of trouble over this or something similar. Set up a shell office in Switzerland to reduce taxable obligations.

I doubled down when it started to trend back up this morning. $8.80-something iirc. Like siff always says, no sense letting winners stay winners.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Wait...

 

[metoo]

ADRE is getting hard to stomach. This thing flipped from nice bull to monster bear in a split second. Just want this month to end already...

Lest anyone think I'm ignoring the thread because $ADRE is dropping I'm not.

FC: Remember the goal of the strategy is to beat the $SPY. At this point the strategy is doing that. Up about 5% on this run. Sure "paper" returns looked better a couple of weeks ago...but to this point we've still got profits...and 5% over 3 months time is solid. Everyone has a place to take profits/losses - and I'm cool with you taking profits here - but as discussed this particular strategy is once a month.

Remember - NO ONE KNOWS THE FUTURE...

Speaking to that-

Now I don't want to get all in my personal life here. But the past month has been one where I've had a number of health issues.

The first is that I've been recovering from an abdominal surgery that occurred in August. Though recovery from that is 6-8 weeks I've been ideal - a top patient. Much further along that most.

Unfortunately, a week ago last Saturday, while I was out on a hike I had an "issue." And later on in the day lost the vision in one of my eyes. Last Monday I was sent to a retina specialist who determined the Saturday "event" was a stoke and that the loss of vision would be permanent- that tissue in the eye had lost 100% of blood flow and was dead. They sent me for a battery of further tests to determine why I would have had a stroke. Echo cardiograms, exotic blood tests, brain MRIs and arterial ultrasounds - they discovered that the carotid artery tore (dissected) near the brain, caused a clot and the clot caused the stroke that went to the eye. Though out of the hospital now that's where I was last week.

Though I believe at the moment my risk for another stoke is small (like 5-10%)...that's still 5-10%. Fortunately everyday that goes by the odds for another stroke will drop, and I'm optimistic I will be out of that risk window in 6 months. And if there is any silver lining in all of this it is this - I can still see out of one eye 100%. I will still be able to do everything I love to do (mtn bike, ski, golf etc (though you may not want to ski to the left side of me and I now must be given every putt within 5 feet of the hole). Who knows in the future maybe $ONVO will be able to print me up a new eye too. I chalk this all up to the randomness of life as I have no risk factors for why this has happened (I'm 6' tall - prior to the Aug surgery I was 175lbs (I'm about 155 now), no smoker no drinker, eat clean, exercise every day) Shiz happens.

Because of all of this- My goal is to post (at least weekly) the Top Monthly Sector until I feel I'm no longer at risk for another stroke. That way no one will be in the "dark" as to where to strategy stands. But remember this is a MONTHLY ROTATION - so the rules remain the same. Trades Open/Close on the last trading day of the month NEAR the close of the market. So the next trade opportunity would be next Tues - the 30th.

I'll do my best to post the current Top Ranked Sector sometime today.

Just get healthy. You don't owe anyone here anything.

 

[metoo]

GPRO is knocking it out of the park for me. +80.52%.

 

[rascal]

Lots of negatives today

 

[GoBirds]

Lots of negatives today

Hopefully we can get a bounce back tomorrow to end the week.

 

[tommyGunZ]

ADRE is getting hard to stomach. This thing flipped from nice bull to monster bear in a split second. Just want this month to end already...

Lest anyone think I'm ignoring the thread because $ADRE is dropping I'm not.

FC: Remember the goal of the strategy is to beat the $SPY. At this point the strategy is doing that. Up about 5% on this run. Sure "paper" returns looked better a couple of weeks ago...but to this point we've still got profits...and 5% over 3 months time is solid. Everyone has a place to take profits/losses - and I'm cool with you taking profits here - but as discussed this particular strategy is once a month.

Remember - NO ONE KNOWS THE FUTURE...

Speaking to that-

Now I don't want to get all in my personal life here. But the past month has been one where I've had a number of health issues.

The first is that I've been recovering from an abdominal surgery that occurred in August. Though recovery from that is 6-8 weeks I've been ideal - a top patient. Much further along that most.

Unfortunately, a week ago last Saturday, while I was out on a hike I had an "issue." And later on in the day lost the vision in one of my eyes. Last Monday I was sent to a retina specialist who determined the Saturday "event" was a stoke and that the loss of vision would be permanent- that tissue in the eye had lost 100% of blood flow and was dead. They sent me for a battery of further tests to determine why I would have had a stroke. Echo cardiograms, exotic blood tests, brain MRIs and arterial ultrasounds - they discovered that the carotid artery tore (dissected) near the brain, caused a clot and the clot caused the stroke that went to the eye. Though out of the hospital now that's where I was last week.

Though I believe at the moment my risk for another stoke is small (like 5-10%)...that's still 5-10%. Fortunately everyday that goes by the odds for another stroke will drop, and I'm optimistic I will be out of that risk window in 6 months. And if there is any silver lining in all of this it is this - I can still see out of one eye 100%. I will still be able to do everything I love to do (mtn bike, ski, golf etc (though you may not want to ski to the left side of me and I now must be given every putt within 5 feet of the hole). Who knows in the future maybe $ONVO will be able to print me up a new eye too. I chalk this all up to the randomness of life as I have no risk factors for why this has happened (I'm 6' tall - prior to the Aug surgery I was 175lbs (I'm about 155 now), no smoker no drinker, eat clean, exercise every day) Shiz happens.

Because of all of this- My goal is to post (at least weekly) the Top Monthly Sector until I feel I'm no longer at risk for another stroke. That way no one will be in the "dark" as to where to strategy stands. But remember this is a MONTHLY ROTATION - so the rules remain the same. Trades Open/Close on the last trading day of the month NEAR the close of the market. So the next trade opportunity would be next Tues - the 30th.

I'll do my best to post the current Top Ranked Sector sometime today.

Missed this earlier - sorry about your issues siff. Glad to hear you're doing better. Get well.

 

[fantasycurse42]

SGYP... Anyone own or follow? My interest is peaked on this one. I'm not a scientist, but the reading I have done infers that this company makes a product for IBS that through P1 and P2 trials has performed similarly to it's competition with much fewer side effects.

complete disaster. could've taken some pretty big profits a long time ago. no such luck.

This thing is getting pummeled... I think I'm still looking to buy, but sub 2 could be in play. I think there is some real good money to be made on this one, just need the assault on it to end.

 

[fantasycurse42]

BTW, I love this thread bc everything is so easy to find. Just enter a symbol and there it is. Wish site-wide on the FFA it was this easy to search.

 

[culdeus]

Why is the dollar on such a strong run?

 

[General Malaise]

Why is the dollar on such a strong run?

Money moving out of the Euro and into a strengthening dollar where yield on treasuries a full point higher than German bonds. I think.

 

[General Malaise]

Why is the dollar on such a strong run?

From NY Times:

President Obama’s handling of the economy may be reviled by his political opponents, but he is receiving support from a surprising quarter: foreign exchange traders.

The United States dollar, after one of its most prolonged weak spells ever, has re-emerged as the preferred currency for global investors. Across trading desks in New York, London and elsewhere, analysts are rushing to raise their dollar forecasts based on the resurgence in the American economy.

In part, this bullish mood is tied to signals from the Federal Reserve that it will soon stop its bond-buying program — a change that would lift interest rates and buoy the dollar.

Yet the recent rally in the dollar — it has gained about 3.2 percent against the euro since late August and about 8 percent against the yen since July 1 — underscores expectations that the United States economy will continue to grow at a faster clip than that of Europe, Japan and even large emerging markets, all of which are seeing their economies stagnate.

 

[Eminence]

I noticed a lot of high volume stocks took a hit today a while penny stocks shot up for the first time in a few months.

I assume there to be a direct relationship behind this. Could anyone explain this for me?

I figured if the high priced stocks are worth less, then the cheaper stocks increase in proportion to the losses.

IE:

HEMP up 22%.

GRNH up 8.6%

ERBB up 14%.

Am I to assume that tomorrow will be a rebound day? Generally speaking of course.

 

[Eminence]

Also, ONVO saw a 5% decrease in shorts from the previous month. Something to watch.

 

[fantasycurse42]

I noticed a lot of high volume stocks took a hit today a while penny stocks shot up for the first time in a few months.

I assume there to be a direct relationship behind this. Could anyone explain this for me?

I figured if the high priced stocks are worth less, then the cheaper stocks increase in proportion to the losses.

IE:

HEMP up 22%.

GRNH up 8.6%

ERBB up 14%.

Am I to assume that tomorrow will be a rebound day? Generally speaking of course.

This is known as rotation. The smart money is exiting the inflated Fortune 500 companies and heading into the undervalued penny stocks / pink sheets. Feels like the right time to make a fortune!

 

[siffoin]

Running the Top Sector Rotation from last night shows:

$IVV to be the top performing sector. Granted there are still a couple of trading days left in the month.

Here is my concern...

When I look at the trends of each of the sectors here's what is coming up:

$ADRE - Early in a new bear trend

$EFA- Bear trend

$IEF - Conflicted - however this probably has the most potential to turn bullish in the next x weeks

$IJH- Early in new bear trend

$IJR- Bear Trend

$IVV- Conflicted - but it won't take much to push this to a fully confirmed bear trend

This is a less than ideal scenario- especially for someone new to the strategy. We'll have to see how the month closes.

 

[General Malaise]

Here's another one for you gamblers....

Vogogo Inc: VGGOF Thing was up 53% today. I don't know too much about this one, but my PM/Trader jumped into this a few weeks back. Payment processing and something to do with bitcoins.

What a year for the little guys in Tualatin, OR....we are up over 100% gross for the year.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Here's another one for you gamblers....

Vogogo Inc: VGGOF Thing was up 53% today. I don't know too much about this one, but my PM/Trader jumped into this a few weeks back. Payment processing and something to do with bitcoins.

What a year for the little guys in Tualatin, OR....we are up over 100% gross for the year.

Did he jump out after the 53% gain today?

I'm way too skeptical all things bitcoin to gamble here...

 

[General Malaise]

Here's another one for you gamblers....

Vogogo Inc: VGGOF Thing was up 53% today. I don't know too much about this one, but my PM/Trader jumped into this a few weeks back. Payment processing and something to do with bitcoins.

What a year for the little guys in Tualatin, OR....we are up over 100% gross for the year.

Did he jump out after the 53% gain today?

I'm way too skeptical all things bitcoin to gamble here...

No staying with it. I know more about ballet than bitcoins, but I think they are here to stay.

 

[GoBirds]

So from years back our company had unclaimed property held by the sate that turned out to be a significant amount of Wellpoint (WLP) stock that should be transferred to our broker this week. As this came out of nowhere our plan is to sell and put towards company debt. Any thoughts on the potential of the stock or suggestions of how/when to sell? What I'm thinking:

-Sell all at once, maybe setting a target for $124, or

-with earnings announced in a month sell 1/2 now and 1/2 day of earnings?

As this was a great surprise I think it might be best not to temp fate and go ahead and sell now while near highs and maybe buy a fraction of the amount in my personal account in case there is significant upside due to Obamacare.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Anybody ever used Loyal3? Anybody planning to participate in the Dave & Buster's IPO?

 

[Drifter]

Interested to see what Siff posts tomorrow on the sector rotation. If i had to guess, he's going to say IEF has gained ground and surpassed IVV as the October choice. Regardless, IEF looks like it will be the best performing sector in September and I don't like what that says about the market in general. It hasn't been the top performer in the last 12 months.

 

[sbonomo]

this was going to be my month to get into his rotation for a min of 12 months. Very interested as well...

 

[Judge Smails]

What do you speculative day traders make vs S&P YTD?

 

[fantasycurse42]

Interested to see what Siff posts tomorrow on the sector rotation. If i had to guess, he's going to say IEF has gained ground and surpassed IVV as the October choice. Regardless, IEF looks like it will be the best performing sector in September and I don't like what that says about the market in general. It hasn't been the top performer in the last 12 months.

The market has been sluggish to say the least and looking back at historical data, this was the worst performing month since Siff started keeping track in 2003. ADRE closed the last day of August at $43.51 and today sits at $38.89, down 10.6% for the month. Luckily, I got out at $40.50, so I still walk away up over 2.5% in the last 3 months. Some advice from Siff I will take forever, never let a winner turn into a loser.

Curious why this went from running so bullish for 3 months into monster bear in the last month? Anyone with insight on this one?

 

[culdeus]

Interested to see what Siff posts tomorrow on the sector rotation. If i had to guess, he's going to say IEF has gained ground and surpassed IVV as the October choice. Regardless, IEF looks like it will be the best performing sector in September and I don't like what that says about the market in general. It hasn't been the top performer in the last 12 months.

The market has been sluggish to say the least and looking back at historical data, this was the worst performing month since Siff started keeping track in 2003. ADRE closed the last day of August at $43.51 and today sits at $38.89, down 10.6% for the month. Luckily, I got out at $40.50, so I still walk away up over 2.5% in the last 3 months. Some advice from Siff I will take forever, never let a winner turn into a loser.

Curious why this went from running so bullish for 3 months into monster bear in the last month? Anyone with insight on this one?

Currency markets are not behaving. You have alot of foreign money now that is having to be priced in differently. And you have federal reserve banks at different points on the globe saying different things.

 

[siffoin]

For the Strongest Sector Rotation Strategy - we''ll be closing $ADRE today - (obviously very disappointing).

We'll be rotating into $IVV (large caps) which is basically going to track the $SPY.

Looking at the trends for each of the sectors - to me none (including $IVV) look all that great or what I would call "ideal". My instinct says we do move higher over the next days/weeks - but that's is really just gut instinct - overall it looks like a range-bound market that is wide and volatile where it is easy to second guess your moves.

Odds are high that the $IVV will be a short-lived top sector - and that we'll be rotating into another at the end of October. As I've said all along - better to just follow the moves BEFORE you feel comfortable putting money at risk.

I'm not at all happy to see what has happened to $ADRE this month. But I say all the time, "I don't know the future", and I can't cherry pick the rules for trading under this strategy. It is what it is - good or in this case bad.

 

[sbonomo]

In. Just out of curiosity, I own spy as a longterm hold. Should this change my investment amount for any reason since my over exposure to this strategy will be increased?

 

[fantasycurse42]

Today is painful, everything is down!

 

[Eminence]

Today is painful, everything is down!

Does it rebound or continue to slide? I want to get in if this will be a low but I don't want to see my money sliiiide.

 

[culdeus]

The dollar is really ####### everything up.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Today is painful, everything is down!

Does it rebound or continue to slide? I want to get in if this will be a low but I don't want to see my money sliiiide.

The S&P will reach a low of 1933 on 10/3 and rebound to 2023 on 10/22

HTH.