St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Many moons ago someone on here was high on Meadowbrook Insurance (ticker: MIG) and I've been watching/buying through the years. Just realized that they were sold last week for a nice little payday for me. Thanks!
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Stock Thread (37 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Siff, it looks like the S&P is about 50 points below its 50 DMA.
Questions related to charting:
Does this now become resistance?
Below the 50 DMA, what becomes the next level of support?
TIA
ETA: It actually just broke the 100 DMA, I assume the major level of support would be in the 1970s, which it briefly broke back in October?
Questions related to charting:
Does this now become resistance?
Below the 50 DMA, what becomes the next level of support?
TIA
ETA: It actually just broke the 100 DMA, I assume the major level of support would be in the 1970s, which it briefly broke back in October?
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Todem
Footballguy
Dipping in here on oil stocks. Also midstream MLP's which are not really tied to oil prices are looking really nice here.
COP
BP
FCX
BHP
ACMP
DPM
CAT
RDS'A
TOT
HP
MPC
SU
DVN
Taking more positions....not fully committing but no doubt buying and establishing and adding to existing positions. 5 years from now.....my god. This is a wonderful chance to buy great american (and some overseas) stocks in energy, industrial and material and mining.
Huge long term opportunity.
COP
BP
FCX
BHP
ACMP
DPM
CAT
RDS'A
TOT
HP
MPC
SU
DVN
Taking more positions....not fully committing but no doubt buying and establishing and adding to existing positions. 5 years from now.....my god. This is a wonderful chance to buy great american (and some overseas) stocks in energy, industrial and material and mining.
Huge long term opportunity.
siffoin
Footballguy
These are difficult questions to answer because I don't have any idea as to what kind of time frame you are working under. Are you looking at the 50DMA as a component for a trade that takes place over the next few days or weeks...or if you are looking at these MA lines as inflection points that will give greater understanding to your investment portfolio in regards to the current 5+ year bull market? Because the answer is different depending.
But in general - once a line of support is broken it becomes a line of resistance. 50DMA or 200DMA are pretty common. They don't particularly mean anything except they are common. I use different numbers in my moving averages. If you want to be "ahead" of the trend crowd you might want a little faster MA than 50. If you want to be sure of the trend you would use a little bit slower MA than 200. Fast MA lines will result in more trades and the potential for more losers/whipsaws, but entry/exits (profit potential) will be superior. Slower MA lines will result in less trades and less potential for losers/whipsaws but the entry/exit points will be worse. If you were going to use a MA line as the only indicator (and you could totally do this and be successful), then the MA number should be centered around how much of the percentage of the trend do you want to capture and how much risk on range you are willing to accept. Ideally you want a MA that's not too fast...not too slow but juuuussssstttt right.
As to levels of support - the 200DMA has been strong for a few years now. Not a single monthly close below that line since 2011. From Jan 2012 - anytime price got near that line it has been aggressively bought. And it is certainly possible it will be bought this time around too. Again, not a single monthly close below that 200DMA since 2011. So it's reasonable to expect that it would get bought this time around too. I feel confident in saying one of these times a monthly close below this 200DMA support level will be the signal that the market trend has changed. Since the month of January has yet to close - I unfortunately cannot tell with 100% accuracy what that future will be and if in fact this is just another buying opportunity or a signal the top is in.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
No SLB?
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Check out my next post in the GMTAN.
Happy with my IGR, it's up almost 8% per-dividend and keeps going up. I've done very well collecting the drip too.
GOOGL seems to have bottomed, I'm confident in their earnings coming up in a couple of weeks. I think it is WAY oversold.
DDD is killing me but I believe in the long term growth AND profitability.
So are my U308 stocks that I continue to be stubborn and hold. URZ is being bought out so I guess I'll keep this terrible "strategy" for now.
I shifted all of my money out of stocks in my 401K to DODIX 1/6.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I was actually referring to the absence of SLB on his stock list.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
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St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
The Ref said:
The other major indexes aren't going crazy today though.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
London Stock Exchange was up today.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Yippee Kay Yay, Mother####er...
Every time I read a story that has anything to do with gold being stored in NYC, Die Hard is the first thing that comes to mind.
Brony
Footballguy
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
Surprised the FAZ debacle that many on here were involved in didn't beat that point in.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Here is a pretty good document on leveraged ETFs for anyone interested in learning more.
http://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/leveragedetfs-alert.htm
"What happens if I hold longer than one trading day? While there may be trading and hedging strategies that justify holding these investments longer than a day, buy-and-hold investors with an intermediate or long-term time horizon should carefully consider whether these ETFs are appropriate for their portfolio. As discussed above, because leveraged and inverse ETFs reset each day, their performance can quickly diverge from the performance of the underlying index or benchmark. In other words, it is possible that you could suffer significant losses even if the long-term performance of the index showed a gain."
http://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/leveragedetfs-alert.htm
"What happens if I hold longer than one trading day? While there may be trading and hedging strategies that justify holding these investments longer than a day, buy-and-hold investors with an intermediate or long-term time horizon should carefully consider whether these ETFs are appropriate for their portfolio. As discussed above, because leveraged and inverse ETFs reset each day, their performance can quickly diverge from the performance of the underlying index or benchmark. In other words, it is possible that you could suffer significant losses even if the long-term performance of the index showed a gain."
Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
I'm pretty ETF smart. I realize that leveraged ETFs are not designed to be buy and holds... which is why i am also considering USO
But... let's say I feel really good about this being a long term (4-6 month) trend upwards where I feel confident My max loss would be assigned at $2 a share, and I would cash out at plus $4 a share.
If I felt good about a long upward trend, wouldn't i get more faster from the 2X?
Much in the way that if hindsight were 20/20... you'd be far better off having bought a 2-3X Dow or S&P 500 ETF like SSO and held that for the past 5 years rather than just DIA or SPY.
So if you trust the long term viability of your investment, why not hold the leverage?
siffoin
Footballguy
Dentist- I'm on your side here and want you to be successful with your investments.
So first thing. Understand the meaning of "trend." In very basic terms.
Price "generally" rising over a given time frame= up trend
Price "generally" declining over a given time frame= down trend.
In regards to oil. There is not a single time frame - hourly, daily, weekly or monthly- that price is "generally" rising at this time.
I get the point. The world needs oil...it can only go so low. I totally get it. I also struggle with the desire to jump in here too. But if we're being honest...we cannot say the long term trend is "up." The desire to buy is an act of bottom picking...and that skill is extremely difficult to master.
It's difficult to draw a similar analogy. But let's say I've been coming to you as a patient since past summer with serious tooth decay and you've had to pull 17 of my teeth as a result. Do we say "the long term trend of my teeth is up because I only have 15 teeth left?"
Bottom picking at the wrong moment leads to emotional decision making and that is the single reason why most investors under-perform.
There is some serious "disease" with oil. Price is telling this to be true.
I have a decent ability to understand trends. And when I look at oil...my opinion is that it is not close to forming a bottom - at least time-wise. What mean by this is (imo) it is going to take days and days and weeks to perhaps months before we can actually says price "generally" is moving up.
There should be a bounce soon enough. I'd tend to think with something like Oil the bounce could be big. If I were to take $USO as an example I'd certainly not be surprised to see a bounce up to $20-$25 but the problem is - the long term trend would still be down.
Unless there is some major external event, it is extremely difficult for me to see the need for any investor to rush and buy at this time. Investing with the trend is all about eliminating the emotional swings from your decision. I think being free from emotional investment decisions lays the best foundation to achieve your investment goals.
In regards to the ultra ETFs. Hindsight investing is a siren song of fools. So are Ultra ETFs. There are far better ways to utilize "leverage" in the market. The fastest way for you to lose sight of your long term retirement goals is to get caught in the sound of that siren especially when taking the opposite side of a major trend. Years of hard work and diligence can be gone quickly when you hear that siren song of greed.
So relax. Spend time putting together a want list of super companies that will rise from this down-turn stronger and more profitable than before. And just be patient and allow price to tell you "when" the trend is up and "now" is the time to buy.
Brony
Footballguy
i like these short sweet summaries
These gas prices are weird. If they're hear to stay expect a lot of surplus as small business can now make more money off smaller investments. Any solid investment strategy would be buying 75% of your portfolio into company's that should see obvious benefits from these oil prices (airlines) and 25% in oil company's themselves.
Somebody is going to be making record profits with gas prices these low and if the gravy train ends, you've got the 25% of oil company's in your back pocket.
Somebody is going to be making record profits with gas prices these low and if the gravy train ends, you've got the 25% of oil company's in your back pocket.
shady inc
Footballguy
Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
culdeus
Footballguy
Again, for informational purposes only.
What if you took one of these x2 short oil stocks and then invested in an oil etf long
Maybe 2:1 ratio of long to ultra short.
What is your black swan event in this case? What is the upside?
I'm trying mainly to get a handle to what these ultra shorts are supposed to hedge? I mean who would really want to buy one of these, what are they covering?
What if you took one of these x2 short oil stocks and then invested in an oil etf long
Maybe 2:1 ratio of long to ultra short.
What is your black swan event in this case? What is the upside?
I'm trying mainly to get a handle to what these ultra shorts are supposed to hedge? I mean who would really want to buy one of these, what are they covering?
Sand
Footballguy
It would be nice if this came to pass. I have some smaller investments in KMI, COP, and XOM that are only down marginally and will hold for a while. I do have, though, a whopping mega sized slice (proportionally) of CVX in my portfolio that I need to trim substantially. I inherited these shares (by far the worst way to gain wealth) right as the bottom fell out - break even is at $114 or so. Wasn't really too concentrated on the markets as it plummeted due to those factors. Now that I'm kinda back in the swing of things I'm looking for a reasonable exit point.
culdeus
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I think at some point oil dips below $40... If it does, at that point I think I will begin accumulating USO for lengthy hold.
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
Effing $NFLX. $9/month to watch documentaries from your couch = $24B market cap.
siffoin
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Everybody I know who has Netflix anymore has it for their kids.
ETA: Though, that could also just be a commentary on the state of my life.
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mquinnjr
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Siff, the article on your site is PW protected... Can you send the PW over?
ericttspikes
Footballguy
I don't get the long term appeal of NFLX. I personally like Amazon prime video better. Netflix playback quality is poor IMO. I could understand the mailing DVDs as being unique and pioneering at the time, but have no idea how they can expect to keep margins up in streaming with 800 lb tech gorillas like Amazon, Google and maybe even Apple around. The future is in streaming, but I have a hard time seeing NFLX as the leader.Buck Bradcanon said:
Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
I don't understand either one of them when the torrents have a better service all the way around.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
How do you invest in crude? I just want to buy something, put it away, and not think about it for years that imitates the price of crude, how do I do this?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/you-can-still-cash-in-on-the-collapse-in-crude-oil-2015-01-21?link=mw_home_kiosk
However, the biggest fundamental problem with these ETFs is how they track oil prices via leveraged futures derivatives. Futures can be analogous to stock options, for example — they both have expiration dates. As futures expire and are rolled over, these ETFs suffer tracking error due to changes in the roll yield.
Backwardation and contango can thus impact returns, especially in volatile markets. After 2008 when oil prices dropped and recovered, USO stayed flat for years while crude prices rose thanks to the contango effect. As a result, by 2014 crude-oil prices had recovered near their 2008 peak while USO was still down 66% — not pretty. If you choose to play these funds long term, caution should be used.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/you-can-still-cash-in-on-the-collapse-in-crude-oil-2015-01-21?link=mw_home_kiosk
However, the biggest fundamental problem with these ETFs is how they track oil prices via leveraged futures derivatives. Futures can be analogous to stock options, for example — they both have expiration dates. As futures expire and are rolled over, these ETFs suffer tracking error due to changes in the roll yield.
Backwardation and contango can thus impact returns, especially in volatile markets. After 2008 when oil prices dropped and recovered, USO stayed flat for years while crude prices rose thanks to the contango effect. As a result, by 2014 crude-oil prices had recovered near their 2008 peak while USO was still down 66% — not pretty. If you choose to play these funds long term, caution should be used.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Yep, you are better off in the big integrateds or oil service companies than USO. Plus you get dividends. (much better in the integrated than service co's)
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CVX+Interactive#%7B%22range%22%3A%225y%22%2C%22scale%22%3A%22linear%22%2C%22comparisons%22%3A%7B%22USO%22%3A%7B%22color%22%3A%22%23cc0000%22%2C%22weight%22%3A1%7D%2C%22XOM%22%3A%7B%22color%22%3A%22%23009999%22%2C%22weight%22%3A1%7D%2C%22SLB%22%3A%7B%22color%22%3A%22%23ff00ff%22%2C%22weight%22%3A1%7D%2C%22HAL%22%3A%7B%22color%22%3A%22%239900ff%22%2C%22weight%22%3A1%7D%7D%7D
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CVX+Interactive#%7B%22range%22%3A%225y%22%2C%22scale%22%3A%22linear%22%2C%22comparisons%22%3A%7B%22USO%22%3A%7B%22color%22%3A%22%23cc0000%22%2C%22weight%22%3A1%7D%2C%22XOM%22%3A%7B%22color%22%3A%22%23009999%22%2C%22weight%22%3A1%7D%2C%22SLB%22%3A%7B%22color%22%3A%22%23ff00ff%22%2C%22weight%22%3A1%7D%2C%22HAL%22%3A%7B%22color%22%3A%22%239900ff%22%2C%22weight%22%3A1%7D%7D%7D
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Sand
Footballguy
I'd buy something like XLE.
---
On another subject I was, since it is the time of the year, looking at rebalancing my 401k. In that account I have a number of things, but last year my REIT fund has exploded (25% last year) while the natural resources fund has taken a beating. Not surprising - overall I still had a good year. When I looked at the REIT fund, I noted it has risen 9% - this year. Damn. On a momentum basis it is way, way on top of the pile of my holdings.
Long story short, now I'm going to wait a while until that REIT fund isn't #1 on my momentum list. I believe rebalancing will pay off as the natural resources fund has a lot of oil stuff in it, but I don't have the courage to call a top and sell a charging bull.
Oh, and looking at buying more KMI. These guys are making great moves right now.
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Bonfire
Footballguy
Did some research personally, and a similar midstream investment I would suggest considering is Enterprise Products (EPD). Prefer them in this space, JMO.
