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Stock Thread (57 Viewers)

siffoin said:
St. Louis Bob said:
AMZN reports Thursday and has had a helluva a run up the last month. I can't help but think that all of the good news is baked into the stock price already. Really tempted to short it.

ETA

Sif < :bye:

I hope you have been well GB
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I'm great. Thanks for asking but lurking here mostly these days. I'm involved in a new project working in partnership with a non-profit - but it's a long story best saved for another time.

In regards to $AMZN. I can only tell you what you already know - that $AMZN is in a bullish trend. To me it doesn't look like a stock that has topped and about to roll over either. Earnings do seem to create gaps (both up and down). If it were to gap down (I'm not saying it will) but a logical spot of support would be $445-->$420-->$400. I kind of think if these levels were breeched, it would present a buy opportunity once the ST selling has occured, and I think within a month or two the gap back to $490 would get filled.

ST - the market looks like we might see some more selling over the next few days...but

The $SPY is holding above the 8 Month MA - which is a pretty good general indicator for determining bull/bear markets. A July close below $208 would put the bull mkt in jeopardy...but right now we're ok, though the "engine" seems to sputter every couple of weeks. Like a lot of things - many stocks look expensive...but the trend is the trend until it isn't.

To sum it up:

The LT trend of $AMZN is up.

If AMZN gaps down support is at $445-$420-$400

If AMZN gaps down and those levels of support are hit - AND the ST general market is trending down - I would wait for the general selling to subside (might take a few days maybe a few weeks) and then look to buy AMZN with a goal of $490+ over the coming months.

Options might be the best way to play for ST gain, but I would wait until after earning so that the IV (implied volatility) gets deflated.

**If AMZN gaps up - there is no specific upside target - just up.
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Man, really want to gamble short now.

 
I'm thinking I want some physical silver

I can get a box of 500 Silver eagles for 9300

Or I can buy .90 silver US coins for $13 per $1 face value

Which is better long term hold or is there a better route?

(these are available locally for pickup today)

Is there an advantage to paying cash?

 
cosjobs said:
I'm thinking I want some physical silver

I can get a box of 500 Silver eagles for 9300

Or I can buy .90 silver US coins for $13 per $1 face value

Which is better long term hold or is there a better route?

(these are available locally for pickup today)

Is there an advantage to paying cash?
Click to expand...
http://www.jmbullion.com/2015-american-silver-eagle-500-coin-monster-box/

$9,300 comes to $18.60 a coin, the link above is hovering near $9,100 which is $18.20 per coin. They are easier to sell and stuff like that but more room too.

If you want silver with the lowest premium, buy 100oz bars. St. Louis Bob does that.

http://www.jmbullion.com/100-oz-rmc-silver-bar/

Save money over that $9,300 you'd spend. Five 100oz bars are $7,800 and tend to have liquidity.

Fifty 10oz bars are a little higher and will take up more room but liquid in smaller amounts.

 
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cosjobs said:
Opened an account at fidelity today. I was offered my choice:

300 free trades over the next six months

200 dollars

50000 airline miles

60 free trades over next 12 months

Went for the 300 over 6 mos.

I hope i don't kill myself with that many bullets
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If you come anywhere close to 300 trades over 6 months you are going to lose. See if you can get the miles or $200. At least you'll have something to show for the effort.

 
Walking Boot said:
cosjobs said:
I'm thinking I want some physical silver

I can get a box of 500 Silver eagles for 9300

Or I can buy .90 silver US coins for $13 per $1 face value

Which is better long term hold or is there a better route?

(these are available locally for pickup today)

Is there an advantage to paying cash?
Click to expand...
Personally, I think silver and gold both have some room to drop further.
Click to expand...
thanks. I hear I should by low...

 
siffoin said:
cosjobs said:
Opened an account at fidelity today. I was offered my choice:

300 free trades over the next six months

200 dollars

50000 airline miles

60 free trades over next 12 months

Went for the 300 over 6 mos.

I hope i don't kill myself with that many bullets
Click to expand...
If you come anywhere close to 300 trades over 6 months you are going to lose. See if you can get the miles or $200. At least you'll have something to show for the effort.
Click to expand...
I wanted you to hear that from Siff instead of me, but I concur.

 
kevzilla said:
siffoin said:
cosjobs said:
Opened an account at fidelity today. I was offered my choice:

300 free trades over the next six months

200 dollars

50000 airline miles

60 free trades over next 12 months

Went for the 300 over 6 mos.

I hope i don't kill myself with that many bullets
Click to expand...
If you come anywhere close to 300 trades over 6 months you are going to lose. See if you can get the miles or $200. At least you'll have something to show for the effort.
Click to expand...
I wanted you to hear that from Siff instead of me, but I concur.
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Yeah, I knew that going in.

I am up $3000 today, but I doubt I can maintain that rate (12%)

I'm in Target, Oracle, Amazon, SW Airlines, and UCO and still over 80% cash

 
For you contrarian folks, a very compelling article by Meb Faber. Commodities evidently aren't quite there yet, but you gotta think they might hit that mark here.

On my end I sold off some PID, COP, and KMI for tax losses and bought some IEFA and XLE to stay in the positions roughly. Will definitely buy KMI back in a month or so. Just sold a house, so have some cash after the payoff to put in the market and am just holding that cash right now. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 25% cash at the moment and in no hurry to get that in right now.

 
skycriesmary said:
St. Louis Bob said:
St. Louis Bob said:
Articles like this are a good sign for oil longs IMO

Added 200 mores shares at $30.53 for 800 at $37.30

ETA

And this one

And this one
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Should have added that my strategy is to add 400 more shares in 200 shares buys should oil keep dropping. Just gambling at this point.
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Siff, what do your charts say for UCO?
Click to expand...
It's pretty much bearish on every time frame.

One day that trend will change and perhaps that day is tomorrow. There's a lot of risk in this so I wish you guys playing it a lot of luck!

 
siffoin said:
skycriesmary said:
St. Louis Bob said:
St. Louis Bob said:
Articles like this are a good sign for oil longs IMO

Added 200 mores shares at $30.53 for 800 at $37.30

ETA

And this one

And this one
Click to expand...
Should have added that my strategy is to add 400 more shares in 200 shares buys should oil keep dropping. Just gambling at this point.
Click to expand...
Siff, what do your charts say for UCO?
Click to expand...
It's pretty much bearish on every time frame.

One day that trend will change and perhaps that day is tomorrow. There's a lot of risk in this so I wish you guys playing it a lot of luck!
Click to expand...
Yeah, playing it is the right phrase, as nobody freaking knows. My gut says we're nearing a bottom, but the action seems to be saying something different.

 
In looking at the market over the last week it strikes me that I haven't seen a freefall in a big conglomerate that wasn't cooking the books like we've seen in FCX lately. Oof. I can't remember seeing a bloodbath like this for a long time.

Question is is this like Lehman and will go under or will it be like Ford? It does have some real tangible assets (unlike Lehman) but people are really questioning whether it can survive on its own. Following but way to scared to put money into that guillotine right now.

 
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I have sold about everything except ORCL and UCO.

I think all markets shed another 1-2% before closing bell this afternoon (and maybe a small bump back at the end).

Is there anything I can buy that would monetize my hunch, if its correct? SOme short term play to bet on blood, traded as a stock of EFT?

 
I kept hearing (mostly Kramer) say the floor for oil was $43.

This morning he started saying that we are now at the floor (~47)

I almost sold off my UCO yesterday when it dipped below 28, now I'm thinking it could still be a good place to be, having bought at 29.25

Other than that I have Juniper Networks and a variety of ETF shorts, DOG, SH, MSBB, and QID. I think I may well hold all these through Oct. Also looking to reload at AMZN if it goes back below $500. What re-entry points do yall think would be good for Goog and Costco?

 
Out of my bear ETFs and in a holding pattern...might look for some tech value plays. Might get back into BP.

 
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eta- I know what I am doing is very risky, but this is an account I setup with about 7% of portfolio, not including real estate. For my remaining portfolio, I'm letting Morgan Stanley handle about 27%, wife's 401k (very conservative portfolio) about 16% and I'm self-directing an Roth of 3% at Scottrade and keeping about 7% cash. The remaining 40% is in Austin real estate. Will add max to Roth from here on out (me and wife's) and also continue to add about $1000/mo. to other accounts

I need to triple to retire in five years to retire, but could wait 7-10 years.

Meeting with my MS guy this afternoon and my Fidelity guy and my accountant & lawyer later in the week

Open to any thoughts on any of this.

Basically been out of the market decision-making for 12 years until now .

I think with current mkt over-valuation (I think 10%), China, Greece, Brazil and/or the Fed all repress or at worst keep the market flat the next 2-3 months. The short etfs seem a fairly safe way to play that, maybe grinding out a few percent while biding my time for a correction, where I prefer to be back on the COME line.

 
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Just got into 100 shares of FB at 95.

Just got into 50 shares of TQQQ at 117.

I'm looking real hard at MPC...all the oil companies look like huge value.

These are swing type trades...don't expect to hold long.

 
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TripItUp said:
Just got into 100 shares of FB at 95.

Just got into 50 shares of TQQQ at 117.

I'm looking real hard at MPC...all the oil companies look like huge value.

These are swing type trades...don't expect to hold long.
Click to expand...
I'm looking at EGY for a very high potential upside, but risky position in case of a oil bounce. But i still have a strong UCO position at 29.25, i don't know if i want to overbuy the pro oil sentiment. Good arguments could be made that were still 5 above the floor.

Also considering FB, going for a next day AMZN type bounce.

 
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TripItUp said:
Just got into 100 shares of FB at 95.

Just got into 50 shares of TQQQ at 117.

I'm looking real hard at MPC...all the oil companies look like huge value.

These are swing type trades...don't expect to hold long.
Click to expand...
wow, i had no idea FB had gotten that high.

I remember after their IPO tanked and it sunk to 18 that it seemed like a buying opportunity, but forgot about it and moved on.

would never have guessed it would 5X from that point.... I do goto facebook for a short time nearly every day, but I'm really not sure how they generate the revenue they do... maybe the fact that I do make it there daily is the answer to my question.

 
Dentist said:
TripItUp said:
Just got into 100 shares of FB at 95.

Just got into 50 shares of TQQQ at 117.

I'm looking real hard at MPC...all the oil companies look like huge value.

These are swing type trades...don't expect to hold long.
Click to expand...
wow, i had no idea FB had gotten that high.

I remember after their IPO tanked and it sunk to 18 that it seemed like a buying opportunity, but forgot about it and moved on.

would never have guessed it would 5X from that point.... I do goto facebook for a short time nearly every day, but I'm really not sure how they generate the revenue they do... maybe the fact that I do make it there daily is the answer to my question.
Click to expand...
Dentist said:
TripItUp said:
Just got into 100 shares of FB at 95.

Just got into 50 shares of TQQQ at 117.

I'm looking real hard at MPC...all the oil companies look like huge value.

These are swing type trades...don't expect to hold long.
Click to expand...
wow, i had no idea FB had gotten that high.

I remember after their IPO tanked and it sunk to 18 that it seemed like a buying opportunity, but forgot about it and moved on.

would never have guessed it would 5X from that point.... I do goto facebook for a short time nearly every day, but I'm really not sure how they generate the revenue they do... maybe the fact that I do make it there daily is the answer to my question.
Click to expand...
ad revenue

 
TripItUp said:
Dentist said:
TripItUp said:
Just got into 100 shares of FB at 95.

Just got into 50 shares of TQQQ at 117.

I'm looking real hard at MPC...all the oil companies look like huge value.

These are swing type trades...don't expect to hold long.
Click to expand...
wow, i had no idea FB had gotten that high.

I remember after their IPO tanked and it sunk to 18 that it seemed like a buying opportunity, but forgot about it and moved on.

would never have guessed it would 5X from that point.... I do goto facebook for a short time nearly every day, but I'm really not sure how they generate the revenue they do... maybe the fact that I do make it there daily is the answer to my question.
Click to expand...
Dentist said:
TripItUp said:
Just got into 100 shares of FB at 95.

Just got into 50 shares of TQQQ at 117.

I'm looking real hard at MPC...all the oil companies look like huge value.

These are swing type trades...don't expect to hold long.
Click to expand...
wow, i had no idea FB had gotten that high.

I remember after their IPO tanked and it sunk to 18 that it seemed like a buying opportunity, but forgot about it and moved on.

would never have guessed it would 5X from that point.... I do goto facebook for a short time nearly every day, but I'm really not sure how they generate the revenue they do... maybe the fact that I do make it there daily is the answer to my question.
Click to expand...
ad revenue
Click to expand...
this. and not only this, they are absolutely to best value for targeted ads. They have all freaking kind of info on all their users and as the learn to dial in and target all their data, it will be even more awesome.

 
Imo, it sounds like most of the cause for today's oil bounce is short covering.

All the fundamentals and other #### dragging them down has not changed.

Seriously considering selling UCO now that its back to my buy price, then buying back in more cheaply later this week.

(take what I say/predict with a thousand grains of salt).

(and I love to hear the thoughts of others.

 
Took a decent hit and sold UCO in the $31 range, Bob you still holding?

My UGA is now even, which isn't bad considering the recrash of oil.

I am thinking of taking a swing on UWTI, not yet, but when the trend reverses, this could be a good quick trade.

 
cosjobs said:
Imo, it sounds like most of the cause for today's oil bounce is short covering.

All the fundamentals and other #### dragging them down has not changed.

Seriously considering selling UCO now that its back to my buy price, then buying back in more cheaply later this week.

(take what I say/predict with a thousand grains of salt).

(and I love to hear the thoughts of others.
Click to expand...
No positive catalysts right now.

 
Got out of AMZN FB & GOOG. That was fun in a multi-orgasmic way.

BTFD on TSLA & went back into SCTY. Oh, and added to DIS to keep my second grader interested in the market. :lol: Added to VFINX because I'm lazy *(& I'll be on vacation a good chunk of August.)

Love TSLA calls right now. I'm long so I don't hold any but ST events that will bode well for them: Model X design studio should open this week, update on autonomous driving is due out within the next couple weeks, earnings call 8/5 (consensus s/b -0.52 /share on around $1.16B rev), and they'll start delivering the SUV Model X late Q3. Ludicrous mode with the new 90 kwh battery pack is in production.

 
Sold half my UCO at a total loss of $111. Holding onto the other 150

Small position on YHOO. Love that they're starting a daily fantasy game. Will incrementally increase going forward

And contrarian play o the day - FXI, an ETF based on FTSE China large cap

 
Hold GILD been good since I've bought it and nice win today. Also good to see oil in the green after what seems like endless days of it going down.

 
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TripItUp said:
A lot of bearish indicators out there...I've probably read 10 bear articles in the past 24 hours...interesting times.
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Kind of surprised markets held positive so far today.

Bought some R2K ultra short etfs TYM

Sold off the rest of my UCO. Just can 't get my head around it until oil hits 34. But I did buy a very small stake in EGY a really cheap pink sheet oil stock down about 90%. That's my only upside oil play now. Considering SCO, but unsure.

I really loaded up on FB. Expecting a very good report. Will probably sell before noon tomorrow, as the market seems very jittery with any quick runups (see AMZN).

Can you buy etf on the Volatility index?

 
Damn. EGY up 27% since I bought this morning.

I wish I had bought more than 200 shares, but I only had $250 of cleared funds in that account

 
But gd it on UCO.

Horrible timing on my part.

If I had sold now I would have made $300 and rising, but instead I lost 250.

There should be some sort of cliche about trying to time the market.

 
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