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Stock Thread (42 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Sand
Footballguy
If you're looking for fixed income diversification these aren't it. I like SPFF, as I'm generally a fan of preferreds - that one is ok (in moderation). MDIV is definitely not a fixed income ETF, though. IMO, if you're looking for something like that I'd stick it in something like BND or split those funds between TLT and GVI.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Thanks.Sand said:
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Every headline I read has to do with the market being off today due to the jobs report.
I'm yet to read anything of substance talking about China. We all know they've been propping their market up and holding it together with a band aid for the last week bc of their WWII celebration. Pretty sure that ends next week. With a day off on Monday which equals two fulls days of pent up selling in China getting ready to unfold before American markets can react, shouldn't this be a worry?
I'm yet to read anything of substance talking about China. We all know they've been propping their market up and holding it together with a band aid for the last week bc of their WWII celebration. Pretty sure that ends next week. With a day off on Monday which equals two fulls days of pent up selling in China getting ready to unfold before American markets can react, shouldn't this be a worry?
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Added another 1000 IGR at $7.33 for 2000 at $7.62. They recently increased the dividend which is now over 8% annually, paid monthly.
lod01
Footballguy
Short term they will say what a disaster it is....sell off...market snaps back...the talking heads come on and say, 'you know what, china is still doing ok, it's just not 7% yearly growth, all is well...you shouldn't have sold a the bottom, sucks to be you'.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
I can't tell if the jobs report has the street thinking the rate hike is coming in September or not. In other words, is job report = good or bad?
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
The tiny rate hike is nonsense. If the market is so worried about a .25 increase, then our economy is standing on some seriously shaky ground.
Furthermore, a collapse in China is much more concerning IMO.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
My brother in law at Wells Fargo is expecting a blood bath on Tuesday. Don't know if it's the right move, but yesterday we dropped my 401K equity position by 30% in 401K, more cash.
Sand
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
China needs to get on solid ground before the ship is righted IMO.
Doesn't mention China, but I enjoyed this article http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-rate-hike-is-the-wrong-thing-to-worry-about-2015-09-04?link=MW_home_latest_news
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
He's right that people shouldn't trade on this endlessly like it has been for nearly a year, but if the fact is the market is reacting, then the market is reacting. Like usual, its a chicken and egg scenario to say the market is down because of the jobs report is an incomplete picture. I'm definitely more concerned with China, IMO, but the market seems to be reacting strongly today. ####ty day anyway, unless you're all hedged up on Bull funds and VIX positions (which I'm not).
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I think the reaction today isn't so much to do with the jobs report and more so with people not wanting to have to hold into Tuesday. We all know the Chinese government kept their market afloat bc of their celebration. Could get ugly over there Mon-Tues.
IC FBGCav
Footballguy
I don't know much about investing but I never understand why you micro manage a 401K.
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I can't comprehend why anyone would take a position in anything bullish before this weekend.
Most of the young traders don't know anything but a bull market, so they just buy buy buy anytime anything goes down - There could be a lesson for them next week. Maybe not, but who knows... I'd bet the thought process for some of them at this very moment is; Dow is down 300 today, near 16k, it can only go up.
Most of the young traders don't know anything but a bull market, so they just buy buy buy anytime anything goes down - There could be a lesson for them next week. Maybe not, but who knows... I'd bet the thought process for some of them at this very moment is; Dow is down 300 today, near 16k, it can only go up.
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Here they come, right on time, buying into close.... Big pop Tuesday 
They'll prob buy the DJIA back to even into close.
They'll prob buy the DJIA back to even into close.
cosjobs
Footballguy
I don't think converting 30% to cash during mayhem is micro-managing.
I did convert 100% of ours to cash about 10 days ago. That may have been, but I'll take it.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
The problem with doing this is that whrn do you make the decision to buy back in? If market goes down 10%, if you are nervous now no chance you will buy then. If it goes up 10% not a good chance you buy back in because you don't want to buy back in at a higher cost. In my opinion the best way is to set your allocation according to your risk tolerance and make minor tactical adjustments from time to time.
cosjobs
Footballguy
nah. Might go up a little before close, but at least 1% down across the board and 3 would not surprise me. Most likely the middle.Here they come, right on time, buying into close.... Big pop Tuesday
They'll prob buy the DJIA back to even into close.
I expect Tue. to be bad, if its not I'm fairly certain Wed. will be.
But I really don't know much. I'm just solidly convince the mkt is still over valued at least 5-10% and we will see that drop before mid Oct.
lod01
Footballguy
Some dude who sounded quite intelligent just said that exact same thing on CNBC.
cosjobs
Footballguy
Since I bet against all the major markets while I feel we are in correction, I add the % gains/losses for SP, DOW, NAS the track that total throughout the day. I call theat figure MQ. Right now its -1.75 -1.66 and -1.17. That's an MQ of -4.58. Its pretty much been within .50 of that most of the day. When I see it go lower than -4 or above -5, I start watching more closely.
If nothing else, it keeps me sharp adding three 3 digit numbers in my head all doy
If nothing else, it keeps me sharp adding three 3 digit numbers in my head all doy
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
lod01
Footballguy
Because you can outperform the market. If I had my 457b in something that follows the S&P or NAZ or ^RUT, I'd be a loser for the year. Currently I am up 10% YTD. I will be back in for this EOY run when it starts. If the markets return to positive for the year, it will be another 7% if I just put it in something that follows the S&P. However I will put it in funds that outperform the S&P.
IC FBGCav
Footballguy
Well, I can crush coal into diamond if I have enough time but it doesn't mean I will. You can also lose doing this, it is not all upside.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Already rallied 100 pointsnah. Might go up a little before close, but at least 1% down across the board and 3 would not surprise me. Most likely the middle.Here they come, right on time, buying into close.... Big pop Tuesday
They'll prob buy the DJIA back to even into close.
I expect Tue. to be bad, if its not I'm fairly certain Wed. will be.
But I really don't know much. I'm just solidly convince the mkt is still over valued at least 5-10% and we will see that drop before mid Oct.
At these levels how can you not buy?????
lod01
Footballguy
You can't think like that. You have to think about it like this: Is the market going to zero? No. It will go back up. If you left it in and did not touch it, you would be down 10%. So since you are out, you in fact saved 10%. Therefore it doesn't matter that it went down 10% because you are ahead if you put it in and it goes down another 10 %....compared to if you left it alone.
IC FBGCav
Footballguy
I thought the point of a 401K was to invest of an extended period of time to limit risk and grow a nest egg. I get doing this with stocks you have just as an investment but why with your 401K? If you can't afford stocks then it is a really risky play, IMO. Having said all that, I hope it works out for you.
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General Malaise
Footballguy
I think the market comes roaring back after Labor Day.
#contrarian
#contrarian
General Malaise
Footballguy
My 401K is all self directed stocks. 
Why the hell would I want anybody else running my retirement fund?
Why the hell would I want anybody else running my retirement fund?
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
Totally disagree. You must have a better crystal ball than I do. Market timing is far to difficult for even the most experienced fund managers. I know many people who sold out completely in early 2009 and have yet to reinvest.
It's not that a lot of us want it, but some of our 401k's have sucky options and we still want to get the employer match/tax benefits and stuff.My 401K is all self directed stocks.
Why the hell would I want anybody else running my retirement fund?
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
That last minute was the rush to the gates... Pretty sure even with all the young bulls buying back 150 points, that was the sentiment. 80 points gone in a minute.
lod01
Footballguy
It is but even if someone panicked, sold after losing say 5% and then the market continued to drop another 5%, there is no reason not to get back in simply because of what you said. It is a longterm investment. There are plenty of people that pull it out, watch the market drop another 10% and crawl in their shell instead of saying, 'hey, I saved 10%, I'm back in'. That is where I am. 1/3 is currently back in for me.
lod01
Footballguy
Those people were weak as hell. They were also most likely republicans, sorry to day. In 2009, I poured money into the markets. A D in the WH is gold for markets. All you had to do was look at this chart and it screamed BUY. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPC+Interactive#{"range":"max","allowChartStacking":true} ...unless you thought the world was going to end.
Let me add that this drop was way overdue and the Dow transports have been negative for way too long. When the Dow Transports start going down, look out. It started heading down in March.
The index -- often referred to as "Dow Transports" for short -- is made up of 20 top railroad, airline, trucking and delivery services stocks. Think: Delta (DAL), FedEx (FDX) and Union Pacific (UNP).
When it goes up, the rest of the stock market often follows. And when it goes down, well, you get the idea.
Article on it from July: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/27/stocks-to-succumb-to-this-classic-theory-technician.html?__source=yahoo%7Cfinance%7Cheadline%7Cheadline%7Cstory&par=yahoo&doc=102867614
The Dow Jones transportation average has widely underperformed the broader market year-to-date, falling more than 12 percent while the Dow is down 2 percent and the S&P 500 is up less than 1 percent in the same period. This divergence, known as the Dow Theory, is an age-old technical indicator that suggests the broader market will follow suit.
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General Malaise
Footballguy
Oh yeah.....that.It's not that a lot of us want it, but some of our 401k's have sucky options and we still want to get the employer match/tax benefits and stuff.My 401K is all self directed stocks.
Why the hell would I want anybody else running my retirement fund?
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
1/2 AAL, 1/2 COP
)
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Holding a bunch of TVIX through the weekend. This is my last gamble... Just sold 1000 shares in AM to reduce exposure a little. I'm looking for chaos next week.
KCitons
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Just so I understand, really bad data out of China is a great thing for global markets? Hoping for government stimulus is what drives the markets in 2015.
lod01
Footballguy
What you are seeing is that really bad data out of China actually doesn't affect anyone but China itself. It's not like we export a lot of stuff to China. They are the ones that make the crap we use. I think we explained a few pages back that it was going to come out that 'oh by the way, China doesn't matter...just like Greece didn't matter.'
You'd be better off at a roulette wheel playing red & black.
General Malaise
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Good thing stuff in China is going worse than thought. Nothing like government supported markets and rallies fueled on negative data. Just as long as we can cut rates and pump printed money into systems everything will be okay.
Can't you just be happy for GM?Good thing stuff in China is going worse than thought. Nothing like government supported markets and rallies fueled on negative data. Just as long as we can cut rates and pump printed money into systems everything will be okay.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I really want to get on board with the nothing can ever go wrong and the government will always bail the market out school of thinking... I just think one day, it will fail, whether 5 years, 10 years, 20, or whatever - When it does it will be epic. The DJIA will half in 8 weeks like a 25k to 12k run in a blink.
But yes, congrats GM.
But yes, congrats GM.
