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Stock Thread (61 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
TheWalkmen
Footballguy
Ref, you think the metals selloff is BS?
The Ref
Footballguy
I dont know, who am I to say really? Sure there are risks all around and the FED is talking about "taper , but they are still pumping in $85B a month. The Govt despite any cutbacks and tax hikes are still running a multi hundred billion dollar a year deficit. I know the economy is damaged but lots is still going on to have an outright deflation.
I think this is an interesting take on what is going on with China:
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/06/20/1541032/an-unwind-in-the-great-chinese-over-invoicing-carry-trade/
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/06/20/1541032/an-unwind-in-the-great-chinese-over-invoicing-carry-trade/
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
I owe you guys some trades, getting it handed to me from all sides.
5/29/13 bought another 250 IGR at $9.36 to give me a total of 1835 at $9.28. I will be buying more soon.
Shorted more AMZN
5/31/13 AMZN 15 $ 271.47 6/7/13 AMZN 30 $ 274.00 6/7/13 AMZN 15 $ 277.34
So I'm short a total of 90 shares at $269.32 with my previous trades.
5/29/13 bought another 250 IGR at $9.36 to give me a total of 1835 at $9.28. I will be buying more soon.
Shorted more AMZN
5/31/13 AMZN 15 $ 271.47 6/7/13 AMZN 30 $ 274.00 6/7/13 AMZN 15 $ 277.34
So I'm short a total of 90 shares at $269.32 with my previous trades.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
I don't even know what this means, but it looks scary: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/files/2013/06/China-ON-mm-June-20.jpg
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
cstu
Footballguy
⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
I think you'll have a chance to sell it at $2-$3 per share higher. Good buy. If it doesn't move up, sit on it for a while (years even).Das Boot said:
Das Boot
Footballguy
siffoin
Footballguy
If I don't tell you who will?
I made a new post on my blog with a look at updated charts regarding the Bull Trend that lasted from Dec 2012-till June 19th. That's right...the market trend is now Bearish. Caution is warranted at this time. Good luck!
http://steelhedge.com/2013/06/21/june-21-2013-sector-charts-trends/
I made a new post on my blog with a look at updated charts regarding the Bull Trend that lasted from Dec 2012-till June 19th. That's right...the market trend is now Bearish. Caution is warranted at this time. Good luck!
http://steelhedge.com/2013/06/21/june-21-2013-sector-charts-trends/
The Ref
Footballguy
NIU Kicker
Footballguy
mquinnjr
Footballguy
I can't speak to individual common stocks/bonds/options, but Morningstar's content and its message boards are pretty solid for mutual fund and ETF investing. Have had a nice experience over there, and people will spend time giving you advice, again mostly on mutual funds and ETF's for retirement, without giving you too much of a hard time.
Al Czervik
Not wearing pants
Saw this article, "Billionaires Dumping Stocks"; http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNews/billionaires-dump-economist-stock/2012/08/29/id/450265?PROMO_CODE=110D8-1
Any way to better confirm this? Someone posted the article on Facebook... wasn't sure of the creditability of the source.
Any way to better confirm this? Someone posted the article on Facebook... wasn't sure of the creditability of the source.
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Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Pretty easy to confirm how credible this is. Yours has a June 21 headline.
Here it is with a Feb 13 headline
http://libertycrier.com/finance/billionaires-dumping-stocks-economist-knows-why/
Here it is with a Dec 28 2012
http://ewallstreeter.com/billionaires-dumping-stocks-at-an-alarming-rate-4399
Here it is with an Oct 1 2012 headline
http://beforeitsnews.com/economy/2012/10/billionaires-dumping-stocks-economist-knows-why-2453730.html
You'd think they'd be done dumping by now.
Pretty easy to confirm how credible this is. Yours has a June 21 headline.
Here it is with a Feb 13 headline
http://libertycrier.com/finance/billionaires-dumping-stocks-economist-knows-why/
Here it is with a Dec 28 2012
http://ewallstreeter.com/billionaires-dumping-stocks-at-an-alarming-rate-4399
Here it is with an Oct 1 2012 headline
http://beforeitsnews.com/economy/2012/10/billionaires-dumping-stocks-economist-knows-why-2453730.html
You'd think they'd be done dumping by now.
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
Al Czervik
Not wearing pants
LOL. Thanks.Pretty easy to confirm how credible this is. Yours has a June 21 headline.
Here it is with a Feb 13 headline
http://libertycrier.com/finance/billionaires-dumping-stocks-economist-knows-why/
Here it is with a Dec 28 2012
http://ewallstreeter.com/billionaires-dumping-stocks-at-an-alarming-rate-4399
Here it is with an Oct 1 2012 headline
http://beforeitsnews.com/economy/2012/10/billionaires-dumping-stocks-economist-knows-why-2453730.html
You'd think they'd be done dumping by now.
mquinnjr
Footballguy
lod01
Footballguy
I just need another day or 2 of this
lod01
Footballguy
Is there some sort of obamacare thing going into affect in a month or so and if so, how would it affect stuff like this:
Gilead Sciences Inc
Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc
Catamaran Corp
Valeant Pharmaceuticals Inte
Pharmacyclics Inc
Incyte Corp
UnitedHealth Group Inc
Celgene Corp
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals
The fund with these in it is smoking all the rest over the last year and is the top performer from what I can choose from over the last 3 years.
Gilead Sciences Inc
Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc
Catamaran Corp
Valeant Pharmaceuticals Inte
Pharmacyclics Inc
Incyte Corp
UnitedHealth Group Inc
Celgene Corp
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals
The fund with these in it is smoking all the rest over the last year and is the top performer from what I can choose from over the last 3 years.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Biotechs have been very strong since beginning of year and a few of those have been standouts on their specific drugs/pipeline. Regeneron, Celgene and Gilead. I've owned Alexion for a few years and it has been relatively weak lately after a huge run, on profit taking, I assume. It makes orphan drugs, so I don't know if it would see a big Obamacare effect. I did start buying Catamaran recently, and part of my thesis was their ability to gain from the health care exchanges due to open in October. UnitedHealth also could get a bump with more people coming on.ETA
- If, by any chance, your fund is T Rowe Price Health Sciences, the fund manager left this winter to start his own hedge fund. He also took two analysts with him.
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optionmaven
Footballguy
I saw apple dip below 400 and pulled the trigger on August 420 calls. Bought 2 for under 2K. Got a little bounce already.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
re: Uranium One
[SIZE=11pt]Lame. I guess the good news is that there is time for another buyer to jump in. [/SIZE]
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
DEFLATION
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
I would have sold at $265 this morning but missed it. Could have executed in the $267 range and made a profit but I'm getting a little greedy now....
siffoin
Footballguy
"If I'd only followed CNBC's advice I'd have a million dollars today.
...
...
...
Provided I started with a hundred million dollars." Jon Stewart
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
Out. 350 at $53.75.
Not sure what my plan is here (don't shoot me siff). I want to own some of this field long term.
⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
After three trades, I've netted about a grand given today's closing price. Not sure it's all worth it.
Hear-the-Footsteps
Footballguy
Hi folks, just wanted to chime in on something. I have tried my hand at day-trading, mid-range holding periods, and buy & hold over long time periods. In addition, I have traded everything from stocks to ETFs to emini futures, etc.
I just want to share what I believe is one of the most important things I have learned.
While it is okay to run ideas off of people and it is great to learn from others' successes and failures - I think it is really important NOT to do something, simply because it is getting pimped or hyped up by others.
Just because someone else writes an article about it, or because CNBC is talking about it, or someone blogs or tweets about it, etc - doesn't mean they are right. (I know this seems obvious, but I think people get caught up in others' ideas more easily than they care to admit. Many of us have made this mistake; and I am definitely no exception.)
Even beyond articles, tv, blogs, twitter, etc - just look at these stock threads over the years. I have not gone through every recommendation. But my guess is, if someone actually tried doing the OPPOSITE of the ideas posted in here - they'd be up big.
I don't mean to offend anyone. I am literally just picking at the ones I remember offhand. (And yeah, maybe I just remember the bad ones and not the good ones - but I doubt it.)
Consider this...
EXK was being discussed to death in the 2012 version of this thread. Again I am not looking back, so this is off the top of my head (so please note my actual numbers may be off, but you will get the idea). But last year as it was breaking through $10 - there were people here that said they could easily see it ending the year at $17 (again sorry if it was really $16 or $18 ~ just going for overall point, not exact numbers).
Now EXK is at $3.00.
Ditto that on QCOM from early Feb. $67 then. $62 now.
Ditto that on silver from April. Using SLV - early April it was $26/27; mid-April it was $23. Now it is $18.
Ditto that on IGR. Someone was touting that at around $9.50. Yes, it went up and through $10 (not even $10.50). Now it is at $8.50.
Someone recently was talking about long MUX. Although that may have been one of you guys on twitter and not this thread. I think at the time it was breaking above $2.50/$2.60 (just a few weeks ago). Today it is at $1.67.
And definitely ditto that sentiment on how much some loved the sexy ipos of recent years (FB, ZNGA, GRPN).
FB ipo'd 1 year ago at around $38 or $40. Shot up that day to $45. It is now at $24.
ZNGA ipo'd less than 2 yrs ago between $9 and $11. It is now under $3.
GRPN ipo'd less than 2 yrs ago at about $28. It is now a little above $8.
I am not saying this to jump on anyone. Again I have made bad calls as well over the years. And again, I have gotten caught up in what others touted as well. What I am saying is: I wish I hadn't. And that is the suggestion I am making today. It is obviously okay to learn from others' successes (as you would your own). Ditto that on learning from others' failures (as you would your own). But don't make a trade and enter a position just because someone else is.
If we had done the opposite of the ideas/trades in these threads over the years that had gotten the most hype and the most attention - we'd probably be up a lot.
I just want to share what I believe is one of the most important things I have learned.
While it is okay to run ideas off of people and it is great to learn from others' successes and failures - I think it is really important NOT to do something, simply because it is getting pimped or hyped up by others.
Just because someone else writes an article about it, or because CNBC is talking about it, or someone blogs or tweets about it, etc - doesn't mean they are right. (I know this seems obvious, but I think people get caught up in others' ideas more easily than they care to admit. Many of us have made this mistake; and I am definitely no exception.)
Even beyond articles, tv, blogs, twitter, etc - just look at these stock threads over the years. I have not gone through every recommendation. But my guess is, if someone actually tried doing the OPPOSITE of the ideas posted in here - they'd be up big.
I don't mean to offend anyone. I am literally just picking at the ones I remember offhand. (And yeah, maybe I just remember the bad ones and not the good ones - but I doubt it.)
Consider this...
EXK was being discussed to death in the 2012 version of this thread. Again I am not looking back, so this is off the top of my head (so please note my actual numbers may be off, but you will get the idea). But last year as it was breaking through $10 - there were people here that said they could easily see it ending the year at $17 (again sorry if it was really $16 or $18 ~ just going for overall point, not exact numbers).
Now EXK is at $3.00.
Ditto that on QCOM from early Feb. $67 then. $62 now.
Ditto that on silver from April. Using SLV - early April it was $26/27; mid-April it was $23. Now it is $18.
Ditto that on IGR. Someone was touting that at around $9.50. Yes, it went up and through $10 (not even $10.50). Now it is at $8.50.
Someone recently was talking about long MUX. Although that may have been one of you guys on twitter and not this thread. I think at the time it was breaking above $2.50/$2.60 (just a few weeks ago). Today it is at $1.67.
And definitely ditto that sentiment on how much some loved the sexy ipos of recent years (FB, ZNGA, GRPN).
FB ipo'd 1 year ago at around $38 or $40. Shot up that day to $45. It is now at $24.
ZNGA ipo'd less than 2 yrs ago between $9 and $11. It is now under $3.
GRPN ipo'd less than 2 yrs ago at about $28. It is now a little above $8.
I am not saying this to jump on anyone. Again I have made bad calls as well over the years. And again, I have gotten caught up in what others touted as well. What I am saying is: I wish I hadn't. And that is the suggestion I am making today. It is obviously okay to learn from others' successes (as you would your own). Ditto that on learning from others' failures (as you would your own). But don't make a trade and enter a position just because someone else is.
If we had done the opposite of the ideas/trades in these threads over the years that had gotten the most hype and the most attention - we'd probably be up a lot.
The Ref
Footballguy
Two more for you... a $4 FEED is now a pink Sheet and a $4 PRGN is at $3........... AFTER a 1-10 reverse split.
As a counter point I'd also say don't confuse a short term trade for a long term hold. I'd certinaly hope if someone was trading any of the above that they would have been out a long time ago.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Agree on both HFS's post and this. It is possible that the people who mentioned stocks that are now lower did make money on them. And that is yet further confirmation of the problem with following others into something. You don't necessarily know when they got out. I still enjoy the thread for idea sharing. Just have to do your own due diligence, understand why you are getting in, and have a plan for getting out.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
I agree with you but I don't think anybody was reccommending following anybody in blindly into a trade. I know that's why Dodd's stopped posting his a couple of years ago. It's more of a place for "this is what I'm doing and this is what happened". At least for me.
In regards to IGR, I was the one that posted that and I still like it. I've been accumulating since October now and it's a LONG term hold. At it's current price of $8.53 there is a dividend yield of 6.44%. That's payable monthly and I like that. Real estate has rebounded in the US but it hasn't taken hold globally. It's only a matter of time before it does. Sure it may be a LONG time but I'll happily collect my dividends until then.
Thanks for the post, don't be a stanger.
In regards to IGR, I was the one that posted that and I still like it. I've been accumulating since October now and it's a LONG term hold. At it's current price of $8.53 there is a dividend yield of 6.44%. That's payable monthly and I like that. Real estate has rebounded in the US but it hasn't taken hold globally. It's only a matter of time before it does. Sure it may be a LONG time but I'll happily collect my dividends until then.
Thanks for the post, don't be a stanger.
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⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
The Ref
Footballguy
well yes and no.... I honestly thought I'd be fully invested in them by now and riding the bounce back up to 1900/45. To claim that "I was right" is a little disingenuous. I guess I'll take credit for being patient enough to not enter in the trade until the chart confirmed bullish.
siffoin
Footballguy
Seems likes this is now the Mea Culpa moment in the thread.
#1) Forgive me people. I showed a bullish chart of MUX on my twitter site. It was a "personal" post...meaning a reference for my own sake. Once I realized some people from here had taken the position on...there was a conversation about how and when to take the loss. I've posted some pretty big sized winners on twitter too, and I know some FBGs are in those positions. When possible I've worked with them to align their positions to where they cannot lose. But the fact of the matter is: Sometimes you hit a GD Grand SLAM...sometimes you strike out. This is a stock picking thread- and I've appreciated the conversations with you guys, but have learned to stop posting individual picks here . The twitter is just a stream. And the blog is more focused on the general trend. I do these things to keep a personal record of MY thoughts, trades, positioning etc. I open it up so that others can hopefully learn from my success and failures.
Loss is just part of trading and investing. If you can't stand the possibility of striking out don't play baseball. If you can't stand the thought of losing in a stock investment...stick you money under your mattress. Losing is just part of it. Where, when and how you take a loss is predetermined BEFORE a position is ever bought. If you are emotional about a position- you've already lost. Everyone always tells me that have a plan...then they get punched in the mouth, and out goes the plan.
#2) GOD DANGIT ST. Louis Bob. I've been in these threads for 6+ years. What is THE NUMBER 1 RULE FOR TRADING/INVESTING?
(If I knew how to do those spoiler tags I'd put one here) Never let a winner turn into a loser. NEVER!
How in Mother Mary's holy name does the NUMBER 1 rule get thrown out so easily and with rationalizations. I can remember last December in the Apple thread. At the time, Apple was trading around $550, and there was a lot of people saying it was the buy of the century. I stated that the technical picture suggested that a person would probably have the chance to buy Apple in the future at a significant discount. As Apple dropped below $500 early in 2013- the argument became"ahh but I'm collecting that sweet dividend, so I'm ok with a little loss here." That back and forth is now all but silent.
The point is- don't be stubborn holding on to a position just because the win isn't as big as you had hoped. I played IGR...and only made 5% or so on the position. Where price went after I had sold it - I was early. But if you can cobble together enough 5% wins soon enough you have a nice chunk of change. Getting a win in a bull trend is easy. Keeping the win when the trend turns bearish is what is hard. And a win isn't a win until the position is closed. Remember no one knows the future- and when danger approaches it's ok to pull a Forrest Gump and RUN!
#1) Forgive me people. I showed a bullish chart of MUX on my twitter site. It was a "personal" post...meaning a reference for my own sake. Once I realized some people from here had taken the position on...there was a conversation about how and when to take the loss. I've posted some pretty big sized winners on twitter too, and I know some FBGs are in those positions. When possible I've worked with them to align their positions to where they cannot lose. But the fact of the matter is: Sometimes you hit a GD Grand SLAM...sometimes you strike out. This is a stock picking thread- and I've appreciated the conversations with you guys, but have learned to stop posting individual picks here . The twitter is just a stream. And the blog is more focused on the general trend. I do these things to keep a personal record of MY thoughts, trades, positioning etc. I open it up so that others can hopefully learn from my success and failures.
Loss is just part of trading and investing. If you can't stand the possibility of striking out don't play baseball. If you can't stand the thought of losing in a stock investment...stick you money under your mattress. Losing is just part of it. Where, when and how you take a loss is predetermined BEFORE a position is ever bought. If you are emotional about a position- you've already lost. Everyone always tells me that have a plan...then they get punched in the mouth, and out goes the plan.
#2) GOD DANGIT ST. Louis Bob. I've been in these threads for 6+ years. What is THE NUMBER 1 RULE FOR TRADING/INVESTING?
(If I knew how to do those spoiler tags I'd put one here) Never let a winner turn into a loser. NEVER!
How in Mother Mary's holy name does the NUMBER 1 rule get thrown out so easily and with rationalizations. I can remember last December in the Apple thread. At the time, Apple was trading around $550, and there was a lot of people saying it was the buy of the century. I stated that the technical picture suggested that a person would probably have the chance to buy Apple in the future at a significant discount. As Apple dropped below $500 early in 2013- the argument became"ahh but I'm collecting that sweet dividend, so I'm ok with a little loss here." That back and forth is now all but silent.
The point is- don't be stubborn holding on to a position just because the win isn't as big as you had hoped. I played IGR...and only made 5% or so on the position. Where price went after I had sold it - I was early. But if you can cobble together enough 5% wins soon enough you have a nice chunk of change. Getting a win in a bull trend is easy. Keeping the win when the trend turns bearish is what is hard. And a win isn't a win until the position is closed. Remember no one knows the future- and when danger approaches it's ok to pull a Forrest Gump and RUN!
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Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
I was looking over the stock contest list since it is almost time to update and most of the stocks toward the bottom are metals/miners.
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