fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
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Stock Thread (36 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
counting to 2 is hard
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I let the insider trading stuff keep me out. It's probably either nothing to begin with or nothing they can prove, but it was enough to keep me from jumping back in in the 17s. This is a game changer, though.Stock was getting ridiculously cheap, IMO. I would have bought more had I any cash.
This country inches closer and closer to bringing back online poker here along with weed at your local corner store. I, for one, embrace our newfound cultural evolution.
James Daulton
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
It was kind of a prickish post anyway. Sorry.
There's a lot of hard work and sacrifice to get to what is a significant milestone, and to have to fall back below it is demoralizing. I get it. Lots of people would give a limb to be where you're headed, though.
Besides, you're still in accumulation mode. Better now than 5-10 years from now. Long view and perspective imo.
There's a lot of hard work and sacrifice to get to what is a significant milestone, and to have to fall back below it is demoralizing. I get it. Lots of people would give a limb to be where you're headed, though.
Besides, you're still in accumulation mode. Better now than 5-10 years from now. Long view and perspective imo.
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
KCitons
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Well, the jobs report on back to back months is showing slower job creation and no wage growth. GREAT NEWS!!! 0% FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 6 MONTHS INFINITY, CRACK THE CHAMPAGNE!
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lod01
Footballguy
Jobs report was fine.
Working age population growing so slowly, we only need 50,000 new jobs a month. http://t.co/l2SRdRTjT2 https://t.co/EIZrvPgxpQ
— Rex Nutting (@RexNutting) October 2, 2015
No one wants to work anymore.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
No, we can sit on zero forever. I mean, it's only been 9 years, what's another decade.
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Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
Oils rigs down again, throw another 26 on the pile. @Bender 
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
350 point swing today, is this all on the hopes of more 0%?
Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
Holy #### snacks I hope this guy wins his bet.Oils rigs down again, throw another 26 on the pile. @Bender
cosjobs
Footballguy
I'm not going near it. The myriad of international legal maladies could be exponentially greater than the numbers they've projected thus far. Maybe they can win or tie it up in the courts forever, but with GM and Ford available at good prices and great recent numbers, I'd look there first if I were interested in automotive..
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
So the catalyst for a bounce Friday was an awful jobs report? I think the green light to rally a little has been given. The bad news is cause for happiness (which is pretty standard for the last few years), even the biggest of bulls has to be a little concerned by this, no?
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
[SIZE=12pt]a) [/SIZE][SIZE=12pt]Big sell-off.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]b) [/SIZE][SIZE=12pt]Investors panic and sell near the bottom.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]c) [/SIZE][SIZE=12pt]Stocks quickly rebound, financial press declares all is right with the world, investors back in.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]So far, so good. This is what has happened so far. But unfortunately there can be a "d" and "e."[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]d) [/SIZE][SIZE=12pt]Stocks start to decline again, perhaps not as fast as before, but down nonetheless.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]e) [/SIZE][SIZE=12pt]Investors get confused, then worried, then start selling again.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]f) [/SIZE][SIZE=12pt]Stocks put in a final bottom and long-term bull market resumes its upward trek.[/SIZE]
lod01
Footballguy
This is really mirroring 2011's selloff. Noticed that they said the same thing on CNBC 2 weeks ago. I piled all in on the 30th. If we get to 2050 S&P and sell off again in November, then it would totally mirror 2011. I'm betting the low is in however.
lod01
Footballguy
THAT looks just like what happened in 2011. Everyone and their brother is cutting their S&P targets as well lately. BOA most recently says target is now 2000, down form 2100. Expect 2100 or better now since they are always wrong?
Of course this could be the start of a bear market sucker's rally.
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
The bull market will never die. A bear market can never happen again.
Yes, I'm looking to buy in cheaper & yes, I think a bear market is necessary.
Stocks falling 10% and going back up 10% 2 months later isn't a correction, it's a transferring of wealth. I'm on the sideline for all of it. I'm sure the market will continue on an artificial run back to the 18k range too, I just think there is a ceiling in and floor represents more downside than upside right now.
Not to doom and gloom this ####, but The Fed is controlled by the markets at this point. They'll continue on this 0% number for at least another 6 months, maybe longer. The asset bubble they're blowing will grow. Look at the fear and panic from the smallest rate hike (which they can't even make). Look at the reaction when everyone gets the "good" news that job creation is slowing.
Yes, I'm looking to buy in cheaper & yes, I think a bear market is necessary.
Stocks falling 10% and going back up 10% 2 months later isn't a correction, it's a transferring of wealth. I'm on the sideline for all of it. I'm sure the market will continue on an artificial run back to the 18k range too, I just think there is a ceiling in and floor represents more downside than upside right now.
Not to doom and gloom this ####, but The Fed is controlled by the markets at this point. They'll continue on this 0% number for at least another 6 months, maybe longer. The asset bubble they're blowing will grow. Look at the fear and panic from the smallest rate hike (which they can't even make). Look at the reaction when everyone gets the "good" news that job creation is slowing.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
& someone tell me what this 2 day, 800 point swing is about. Everything I've read shows nothing technical, maybe Siff can speak on This is a market rallying on more easy money, this is a market conditioned to buy every dip, this is a market that reacts to bad news by rallying.
After 6.5 years of the same thing, I guess it's hard to blame anyone.
After 6.5 years of the same thing, I guess it's hard to blame anyone.
Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
lod01
Footballguy
I like reading this guy's Elliot Wave analysis. He says we could get a big rally followed by a bigger drain in November.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-by-the-markets-test-of-the-lows-2015-10-05?dist=tbeforebell
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
This article has nothing of substance (like everything out of Marketwatch) and makes you go look for the information it mentions.Also doesn't mention the real reason for the rally, rate hike off the table.
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cosjobs
Footballguy
Over the last month, my most profitable play has bee to buy UC0 and sell DWTI when crude was 43 or less, then reverse and sell UCO and buy more DWTI when above $47.
That's means I'd typically sell most of my 600 shares of UCO today at around 25.50 and load up on more DWTI in the 80s.
But I'm thinking the bars may be about to change and new highs and lows be set.
That's means I'd typically sell most of my 600 shares of UCO today at around 25.50 and load up on more DWTI in the 80s.
But I'm thinking the bars may be about to change and new highs and lows be set.
siffoin
Footballguy
I've said before: It's very difficult to navigate these kinds of markets.
For the Bulls: It probably looks like a great place to buy at a low.
For the Bears: It probably looks like a great place to unload at a high.
One of them will probably be right too.
My perspective is that we've had a rally to resistance levels within all 3 primary time frames (daily, weekly and monthly). Nothing more, and certainly not necessarily unexpected. If we're able to burst through those levels - I think the charts will need to be re-examined and open to new interpretation.
As for the "this is mirroring 2011". Completely correct.
The same can be said about mirroring 2008 too. Honestly mirroring 2000 might be closer to the mark. But I'm guessing that doesn't get discussed too much on CNBC.
But we live on the right edge of a chart and don't know the outcome of that next bar or set of bars do we? So which will it be? New bull or bear?
One will probably be right.
My traders magic 8 ball says "ask me again later", but I do have a bet placed.
For some real short term perspective:
Put one way: We're 100 $ES (SP500) points higher than we were on Sept 29.
Put another way: We're 50 $ES (SP500) points lower than we were on Sept 17.
It's really tough to navigate these kinds of markets.
In general I think people would be better served with an investment philosophy which can serve any market.
Are you a value investor? Great. What is your methodology for determining when a stock is undervalued and if you buy undervalue then don't you sell overvalue...with the idea that at some point in time price meets true value?
Perhaps you are a momentum investor. Again....how do you determine momentum and when to buy/sell?
Maybe like me you follow the trend. I would ask the same questions. How do you determine trend?
That methodology is never discussed here makes me worried that many don't actually follow one.
For the Bulls: It probably looks like a great place to buy at a low.
For the Bears: It probably looks like a great place to unload at a high.
One of them will probably be right too.
My perspective is that we've had a rally to resistance levels within all 3 primary time frames (daily, weekly and monthly). Nothing more, and certainly not necessarily unexpected. If we're able to burst through those levels - I think the charts will need to be re-examined and open to new interpretation.
As for the "this is mirroring 2011". Completely correct.
The same can be said about mirroring 2008 too. Honestly mirroring 2000 might be closer to the mark. But I'm guessing that doesn't get discussed too much on CNBC.
But we live on the right edge of a chart and don't know the outcome of that next bar or set of bars do we? So which will it be? New bull or bear?
One will probably be right.
My traders magic 8 ball says "ask me again later", but I do have a bet placed.
For some real short term perspective:
Put one way: We're 100 $ES (SP500) points higher than we were on Sept 29.
Put another way: We're 50 $ES (SP500) points lower than we were on Sept 17.
It's really tough to navigate these kinds of markets.
In general I think people would be better served with an investment philosophy which can serve any market.
Are you a value investor? Great. What is your methodology for determining when a stock is undervalued and if you buy undervalue then don't you sell overvalue...with the idea that at some point in time price meets true value?
Perhaps you are a momentum investor. Again....how do you determine momentum and when to buy/sell?
Maybe like me you follow the trend. I would ask the same questions. How do you determine trend?
That methodology is never discussed here makes me worried that many don't actually follow one.
Sand
Footballguy
Personally I like to see a historical price appreciation + dividend growth rate of at least 10%. As a guy who likes to buy cheap I also like to see a stable business where the dividend yield is spiking (either due to price drop, dividend increases, or both). During this downturn I bought some KMI and EPD. I also picked up some PDI because it was at a very high discount rate and I wanted to have a reason to learn about CEFs. Sold NLY as they have fallen off of the 10% rule for a few years now (and it doesn't look to be getting a lot better).
Mostly right now I'm just hanging in. I have 20% cash and am in no hurry to put it to work. I'll keep plinking away here opportunistically - we'll see how I do down the road. So far this year I'm almost equal with the S&P and given I got stuck with a large chunk of CVX it looks like most other things are at least doing ok. Not a great year, but not horrific so far.
General Malaise
Footballguy
I'm not much of a stock theory guy but one thing I've always been intrigued by is the action of the stock market after a storied MLB team in a major market wins a World Series after a drought.
Example A) New York Yankees won the World Series in 1996 after an 18 year drought.
Dow Jones on Oct. 1, 1996: 5,904
Dow Jones on Dec. 31, 1996: 6,448
Dow Advanced 544 Points and 9.2%
Example B) Boston Red Sox won the WS in 2004 after an 86 year drought.
Dow Jones on Oct. 1, 2004: 10,192
Dow Jones on Dec. 31, 2004: 10,783
Dow Advanced 591 points and 5.8%
Example C) St. Louis Cardinals won the WS in 2006 after a 24 year drought.
Dow Jones on Oct. 1, 2006: 11,679
Dow Jones on Dec. 31, 2006: 12,463
Dow Advanced 784 points and 6.7%
Example D) San Francisco Giants won the WS in 2010 after a 56 year drought.
Dow Jones on Oct. 1, 2010: 10,829
Dow Jones on Dec. 31, 2010: 11,577
Dow Advanced 748 points and 6.9%
The conclusion? If you are a tinfoil hat guy, root hard for the Cubbies. A WS win would be their first in more than a century. This is the extent of my stock market analysis.*
*I left out the Phillies winning in 2008 because, you know, it didn't fit my theory and that was an era of financial armageddon. Plus, screw Philly, you know?
Example A) New York Yankees won the World Series in 1996 after an 18 year drought.
Dow Jones on Oct. 1, 1996: 5,904
Dow Jones on Dec. 31, 1996: 6,448
Dow Advanced 544 Points and 9.2%
Example B) Boston Red Sox won the WS in 2004 after an 86 year drought.
Dow Jones on Oct. 1, 2004: 10,192
Dow Jones on Dec. 31, 2004: 10,783
Dow Advanced 591 points and 5.8%
Example C) St. Louis Cardinals won the WS in 2006 after a 24 year drought.
Dow Jones on Oct. 1, 2006: 11,679
Dow Jones on Dec. 31, 2006: 12,463
Dow Advanced 784 points and 6.7%
Example D) San Francisco Giants won the WS in 2010 after a 56 year drought.
Dow Jones on Oct. 1, 2010: 10,829
Dow Jones on Dec. 31, 2010: 11,577
Dow Advanced 748 points and 6.9%
The conclusion? If you are a tinfoil hat guy, root hard for the Cubbies. A WS win would be their first in more than a century. This is the extent of my stock market analysis.*
*I left out the Phillies winning in 2008 because, you know, it didn't fit my theory and that was an era of financial armageddon. Plus, screw Philly, you know?
John Bender
Footballguy
Any insight as to weather or not we'll get a rocky few days here in October with a sharp downturn?
I ask because tVIX is back below $10/share and I made a nice little profit in early September by just watching it closely and cashing out at the right time. Now would be the time to grab some if some instability will return for October.
I can't buy enough UCO right now either.
I ask because tVIX is back below $10/share and I made a nice little profit in early September by just watching it closely and cashing out at the right time. Now would be the time to grab some if some instability will return for October.
I can't buy enough UCO right now either.
The Big Guy
Fear the Blitz
Now I regret not rebuying UCO back on the last dip below 22. Look at it shooting back up to almost 27 now.
John Bender
Footballguy
U
C
O
C
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culdeus
Footballguy
http://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_43783857.png?1444414481
I have no idea what that says, but it looks cool
John Bender
Footballguy
Still plenty of room on the bandwagon at this price. IMO
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
It looks like the good news is bad news model is back and in full effect. I'd be careful either way, who the #### knows.
One thing we know for sure, regardless of what the Fed says is that the FFR will stay on zero until 2016.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
I bought 100 NVCR or Friday @ $17.75. Sheesh, wish I would have bought 10,000.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Thinking about a small play on TVIX.
