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I just don't see how this simply goes away.  I sold several days ago.  Might be a poor decision, but there's way more downside than upside for them right now.  I have to think some Congressman will decide to get his name in the news by protecting the little people and forcing somebody from WFC to come and testify in front of them.  And I can't see that ending well.

 
Bob Sacamano said:
I just don't see how this simply goes away.  I sold several days ago.  Might be a poor decision, but there's way more downside than upside for them right now.  I have to think some Congressman will decide to get his name in the news by protecting the little people and forcing somebody from WFC to come and testify in front of them.  And I can't see that ending well.
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CEO,  on Tuesday. Nothing I say will get my old man to sell, and a Fed raise on Wednesday might put them right back where they were.

 
kevzilla said:
CEO,  on Tuesday. Nothing I say will get my old man to sell, and a Fed raise on Wednesday might put them right back where they were.
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Might.  Like I said, could be a poor decision.  But I've got enough exposure to financials without them, and I see more downside than up right now.

 
Bob Sacamano said:
I just don't see how this simply goes away.  I sold several days ago.  Might be a poor decision, but there's way more downside than upside for them right now.  I have to think some Congressman will decide to get his name in the news by protecting the little people and forcing somebody from WFC to come and testify in front of them.  And I can't see that ending well.
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Oh I agree.  Feds are involved.

 
I have a sell order for AAPL set at ~119.  Too bad I held past the $133(?) period, but I think it may hit 119 before end of month.

I will be holding 80% cash after that so I am really pulling for a 30-40% crash over the next year.  What do you guys think?

 
Arid Filch said:
I have a sell order for AAPL set at ~119.  Too bad I held past the $133(?) period, but I think it may hit 119 before end of month.

I will be holding 80% cash after that so I am really pulling for a 30-40% crash over the next year.  What do you guys think?
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I think this is a dumb idea.  The odds of a 30-40% crash are extremely extremely low.  With that said - I do believe that we are in a "crash window" time frame...and that "insurance" to protect your portfolio during this window is a good idea, and I think it can be done for relatively low cost (1/2 of 1% per for 8-12 weeks of coverage...that could be rolled forward while that window exists).  I could expand on this if interested

Edit:  Meaning approx $500 for $100000 of portfolio insurance.  If the market drops by 30% the insurance would cover $30k of  the portfolio losses.

Of course...just like the fire insurance coverage you carry on your house...the odds are that the insurance expires worthless.

 
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siffoin said:
I think this is a dumb idea.  The odds of a 30-40% crash are extremely extremely low.  With that said - I do believe that we are in a "crash window" time frame...and that "insurance" to protect your portfolio during this window is a good idea, and I think it can be done for relatively low cost (1/2 of 1% per for 8-12 weeks of coverage...that could be rolled forward while that window exists).  I could expand on this if interested

Edit:  Meaning approx $500 for $100000 of portfolio insurance.  If the market drops by 30% the insurance would cover $30k of  the portfolio losses.

Of course...just like the fire insurance coverage you carry on your house...the odds are that the insurance expires worthless.
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stock insurance is a thing? I'd be interested in learning more.

Thanks.

 
Slapdash said:
Futures say only about 25% it happens before Nov, but I agree surprising the market by hiking could get ugly.
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No chance - creates way too much volatility, which in turn boosts the odds for Trump which mean Janet is out of a job. The odds of a rate hike in September should be zero, they'll move in December.

 
siffoin said:
I think this is a dumb idea.  The odds of a 30-40% crash are extremely extremely low.  With that said - I do believe that we are in a "crash window" time frame...and that "insurance" to protect your portfolio during this window is a good idea, and I think it can be done for relatively low cost (1/2 of 1% per for 8-12 weeks of coverage...that could be rolled forward while that window exists).  I could expand on this if interested

Edit:  Meaning approx $500 for $100000 of portfolio insurance.  If the market drops by 30% the insurance would cover $30k of  the portfolio losses.

Of course...just like the fire insurance coverage you carry on your house...the odds are that the insurance expires worthless.
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Siff, your website is down... I was looking for your ES futures strategy, could you refresh my memory on that one?

 
Slapdash said:
Futures say only about 25% it happens before Nov, but I agree surprising the market by hiking could get ugly.
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I hope it does - great buying opportunity.  Only reason to go to cash right now is to have dry powder to buy the dip.  Nothing is perfect, but there's no indication that this business cycle is done.  The US is limping along.  

 
Sand said:
I hope it does - great buying opportunity.  Only reason to go to cash right now is to have dry powder to buy the dip.  Nothing is perfect, but there's no indication that this business cycle is done.  The US is limping along.  
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I've got a bunch of powder I'm looking to unload on a dip, but I need P/E's down a little. Historically, a 10 year investment with P/E's where they are now return garbage. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I've got a bunch of powder I'm looking to unload on a dip, but I need P/E's down a little. Historically, a 10 year investment with P/E's where they are now return garbage. 
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I do as well - about 15%.  Mostly because I'm looking at that as very short term bonds - of all the risks out there I see long bonds as easily the biggest risk/lowest future return class out there.  I'd love to see a mini tantrum in some classes of the CEF space - equities, munis, etc.  Those markets tend to overreact and deals can be had.  I'd love to load up on more PDI or PCI, for example.

 
General Malaise said:
You're aware of course that a president cannot fire a Fed Chair, right?
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If you care to wager, I'll bet you that Janet would be gone if Trump wins the election.

Edit: to be fair that would be a bad scenario, as much as I dislike Hillary, Trump would be a disaster.

 
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Sand said:
I do as well - about 15%.  Mostly because I'm looking at that as very short term bonds - of all the risks out there I see long bonds as easily the biggest risk/lowest future return class out there.  I'd love to see a mini tantrum in some classes of the CEF space - equities, munis, etc.  Those markets tend to overreact and deals can be had.  I'd love to load up on more PDI or PCI, for example.
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I wouldn't buy long term bonds with your money right now.

 
Anybody else think Tim Cook is just out there buying iphones with his own money so he can deliver a giant F You to all the people who have been banging on AAPL?

 
fantasycurse42 said:
If you care to wager, I'll bet you that Janet would be gone if Trump wins the election.

Edit: to be fair that would be a bad scenario, as much as I dislike Hillary, Trump would be a disaster.
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You're an interesting cat.  Even when you're dead wrong, you argue that you're right.  My ex-wife was like that.  

 
Sand said:
I hope it does - great buying opportunity.  Only reason to go to cash right now is to have dry powder to buy the dip.  Nothing is perfect, but there's no indication that this business cycle is done.  The US is limping along.  
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Eh.  Fed drives the cycle.  If they increase enough to invert the curve, things change.  

In the near term, I think it depends on what happens with China after another hike.  Is US strong enough to whether a true crash, sustained crash in China?  Reasonable people can disagree there.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I've got a bunch of powder I'm looking to unload on a dip, but I need P/E's down a little. Historically, a 10 year investment with P/E's where they are now return garbage. 
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FC, I feel like you having been drinking that limitless drug.  You are astutely anticipating every crook and cranny in this current market.  I would love to learn more about how you do that.  I see the P/Es and I can't get past the idea that I will be able to get more of that same company for less money at some point in the next 3 years.

 
RUSF18 said:
I'm even more excited for if/when they actually innovate with a future version of the iPhone, if this is how consumers react to the 7. 
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Yep. My oldest son is 12, youngest 9.  Both fan boys.  I gave them this investing book and made them read it over the summer.  They asked me to open an account for them and split their savings between AAPL and an S&P 500 ETF, which I did,  They got AAPL at 92 & VOO at $186.43.  They're pretty happy.

My oldest couldn't understand why more people weren't impressed with the iPhone7.  He's REALLY into this stuff.  Looks like he was on to something. Of course the Samsung Fiesta 7 Note, helps.

 
Didn't intend to day trade today but the situation presented itself. 

In 500 WATT @17.27 out 18.33. 

Easy money. Back in the cash. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Yes, you were proven factually wrong yet I had to argue with you for 5 pages to get you to admit it, which you half assingly did, sorta.
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No, you completely missed the point I was making and went down this vortex of guys sleeping with other guy's girlfriends which had #### all nothing to do with my point in the first place.  It was honestly quite sad to see you keep harping on it.  And you're wrong about the FED too, but you will continue to say you're right because????  I don't understand that mentality.  

 
General Malaise said:
No, you completely missed the point I was making and went down this vortex of guys sleeping with other guy's girlfriends which had #### all nothing to do with my point in the first place.  It was honestly quite sad to see you keep harping on it.  And you're wrong about the FED too, but you will continue to say you're right because????  I don't understand that mentality.  
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I think you just enjoy arguing with me for whatever reason. The crux of your argument was correct, but using Aldon Smith as an example made your argument incorrect. 

Instead of just saying, oops, yes remove Aldon Smith, but Borland/Willis/defense/coach/etc. However, you wouldn't cede even that much :shrug:  If you would've, we prob could've shaved 3 pages off that thread.

I can say "I think Facebook goes up tomorrow bc Goldman will initiate an overweight rating on it tonight" then Barclays initiates the overweight rating - the argument was sound, but incorrect, which I'd say oops, close enough, but yes I was incorrect about the bank. You wouldn't even do that. 

 
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Arid Filch said:
FC, I feel like you having been drinking that limitless drug.  You are astutely anticipating every crook and cranny in this current market.  I would love to learn more about how you do that.  I see the P/Es and I can't get past the idea that I will be able to get more of that same company for less money at some point in the next 3 years.
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Even analysts (bullish ones too) admit valuations are stretched, yet for some reason they think they can keep going, what planet are we on? We know the market is expensive, hardly anyone will deny that much, we're into the second longest bull market in history. Complacency is running wild. Earnings have been deteriorating at the worst pace since 2009, yet nobody thinks anything can go wrong, everything being completely driven by central banks. We're in unchartered waters right now. Long term bonds are a ####### disaster, those are supposed to be the "safe" investments. Now, I'm not a Zerohedge end of world guy, but yea, I'm not looking to pile in now. Can the DJIA get to 20k, sure it can, prob will. S&P will prob see 2500 too, but when we get hit by a shock, it'll be quick and ugly.

Put me in the camp that the Fed has limited tools in their pocket to handle an economic shock. They can't raise rates 25 basis points without fear of the market going nuts (everyone remember Jan/Feb? Market fell 10% and the Fed had to back off of their 4 rate hikes this year, now they haven't given us one). So when a shock comes, typically the Fed's response is to drop rates on average 3-500 basis points looking back at history, well that would take us to -2.75 to -4.75% :lmao:

 
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