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fantasycurse42 said:
I think you just enjoy arguing with me for whatever reason. The crux of your argument was correct, but using Aldon Smith as an example made your argument incorrect. 

Instead of just saying, oops, yes remove Aldon Smith, but Borland/Willis/defense/coach/etc. However, you wouldn't cede even that much :shrug:  If you would've, we prob could've shaved 3 pages off that thread.

I can say "I think Facebook goes up tomorrow bc Goldman will initiate an overweight rating on it tonight" then Barclays initiates the overweight rating - the argument was sound, but incorrect, which I'd say oops, close enough, but yes I was incorrect about the bank. You wouldn't even do that. 
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No reason to relive it. But Aldon not being available to that defense because of his Aug 2015 DUI was the point I was making.  I should have clarified that.  The battle over a girl is not the reason why SFO sucked or why Aldon Smith was kicked off the team.  

But let's agree to disagree and leave this thread be.  

Yellin is not going to resign if Trump wins and he can't fire her.  

Buy some cobalt.  Prices are about to get a jolt.  Quoted $13.10 today on 10mt.  Supply news coming.

David Baazov is going to skate on the insider trading crap.  Hope that is a boost to AYA as I'm lousy with this stuff still. :bag:

 
siffoin said:
I think this is a dumb idea.  The odds of a 30-40% crash are extremely extremely low.  With that said - I do believe that we are in a "crash window" time frame...and that "insurance" to protect your portfolio during this window is a good idea, and I think it can be done for relatively low cost (1/2 of 1% per for 8-12 weeks of coverage...that could be rolled forward while that window exists).  I could expand on this if interested

Edit:  Meaning approx $500 for $100000 of portfolio insurance.  If the market drops by 30% the insurance would cover $30k of  the portfolio losses.

Of course...just like the fire insurance coverage you carry on your house...the odds are that the insurance expires worthless.
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Ok.  First - whatever stupid thing I type here is for informational purposes only as is not intended as investment advice.

First thought on the Fed raising interest rates.  In the words of the Great President George Bush I..."Read my lips - the Fed is never ever ever ever never ever never ever ever going to raise interest rates in any meaningful way...EVER!"

Sure like a 3 year old addicted to her binkie Wall Street might throw a temper tantrum when the idea of weaning off that binkie is presented...but like over indulgent parents the Fed will cave at the first sign precious is upset and make sure she is soothed. 

A .25pt raise in interest rates might cause a short term Wall Street tantrum...but not a 30% crash.

My opinion of the overall market - it's pretty dang bullish...price is above multiple levels of support and the blips we've seen over the past week are just that---noise in an overall bullish trend.  Hell we didn't even tag the first level of support (yet).  

With that said - there's a lot of smoke and mirrors to this market...and there are a lot of potential issues that could cause a more significant drop.  I'd like to think 10-20%% is the max...but the question is how to protect on a 30-40% drop...so that's what I'm answering.

To get to a 30% crash we're talking about a black swan event.  Actually with all the circuit breakers, stop gaps, global central banking intervention...for the market to drop 30-40% in a span of a few weeks - months we're talking about multiple black swans occurring at around the same time.

What exactly is a black swan? To put it in perspective you guys can understand.  The LA Rams playing for the Super Bowl this year is a black swan event.  The Rams playing the Browns in the Super Bowl is a double black swan event.

So that's what we're betting on.  The Rams Vs. The Browns in the Super Bowl actually happening.

I'll be back later to describe how to structure that position.

 
siffoin said:
So that's what we're betting on.  The Rams Vs. The Browns in the Super Bowl actually happening.
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Or something ridiculous like Leicester City going from worst to first in the richest league in the history of man.

Just pointing out the obvious.  Carry on.

 
St. Louis Bob said:
Yep. My oldest son is 12, youngest 9.  Both fan boys.  I gave them this investing book and made them read it over the summer.  They asked me to open an account for them and split their savings between AAPL and an S&P 500 ETF, which I did,  They got AAPL at 92 & VOO at $186.43.  They're pretty happy.

My oldest couldn't understand why more people weren't impressed with the iPhone7.  He's REALLY into this stuff.  Looks like he was on to something. Of course the Samsung Fiesta 7 Note, helps.
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What investing book? My 11 year old is very interested in investing.

 
siffoin said:
Ok.  First - whatever stupid thing I type here is for informational purposes only as is not intended as investment advice.

First thought on the Fed raising interest rates.  In the words of the Great President George Bush I..."Read my lips - the Fed is never ever ever ever never ever never ever ever going to raise interest rates in any meaningful way...EVER!"

Sure like a 3 year old addicted to her binkie Wall Street might throw a temper tantrum when the idea of weaning off that binkie is presented...but like over indulgent parents the Fed will cave at the first sign precious is upset and make sure she is soothed. 

A .25pt raise in interest rates might cause a short term Wall Street tantrum...but not a 30% crash.

My opinion of the overall market - it's pretty dang bullish...price is above multiple levels of support and the blips we've seen over the past week are just that---noise in an overall bullish trend.  Hell we didn't even tag the first level of support (yet).  

With that said - there's a lot of smoke and mirrors to this market...and there are a lot of potential issues that could cause a more significant drop.  I'd like to think 10-20%% is the max...but the question is how to protect on a 30-40% drop...so that's what I'm answering.

To get to a 30% crash we're talking about a black swan event.  Actually with all the circuit breakers, stop gaps, global central banking intervention...for the market to drop 30-40% in a span of a few weeks - months we're talking about multiple black swans occurring at around the same time.

What exactly is a black swan? To put it in perspective you guys can understand.  The LA Rams playing for the Super Bowl this year is a black swan event.  The Rams playing the Browns in the Super Bowl is a double black swan event.

So that's what we're betting on.  The Rams Vs. The Browns in the Super Bowl actually happening.

I'll be back later to describe how to structure that position.
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I agree and thanks GB.  Also, I bet $50 on the Rams winning the SB at 4000-1.  Of course I alsohave $750 -200 on them winning less than 7.5. ;)

 
ex-ghost said:
What investing book? My 11 year old is very interested in investing.
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This one.

My 12 yo has Asperger's and near photographic memory so I knew he could handle it.  Funny kid, can tell you in great detail about anything he has ever read but can't remember where his shoes are. Hint, they're not on his feet.

 
St. Louis Bob said:
5 more at $411.15 for 15 at $420.32
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Yuck, can I ask why? 

I'll tell you this much; there are a ton of Chipotles in NYC, no lines at any of them - I always look in to see. If I see a line, I'll walk in to check it out sometimes, typically just understaffed & not excess demand. I've been weighing a short here for some time and just can't pull the trigger, my main reason of the line curiosity. 

I wanted to short so bad on the Ackman news but didn't :kicksrock:

They're already very expensive in comparison to the vertical. I see them at best as market perform and more likely as market underperform. I struggle to not see them in the mid $300's at some point over the next 12 months. The growth is gone, they need to be trading closer to their peers in terms of valuation IMO. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Yuck, can I ask why? 

I'll tell you this much; there are a ton of Chipotles in NYC, no lines at any of them - I always look in to see. If I see a line, I'll walk in to check it out sometimes, typically just understaffed & not excess demand. I've been weighing a short here for some time and just can't pull the trigger, my main reason of the line curiosity. 

I wanted to short so bad on the Ackman news but didn't :kicksrock:

They're already very expensive in comparison to the vertical. I see them at best as market perform and more likely as market underperform. I struggle to not see them in the mid $300's at some point over the next 12 months. The growth is gone, they need to be trading closer to their peers in terms of valuation IMO. 
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Because I think the price will go up. :thumbup:

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Yuck, can I ask why? 

I'll tell you this much; there are a ton of Chipotles in NYC, no lines at any of them - I always look in to see. If I see a line, I'll walk in to check it out sometimes, typically just understaffed & not excess demand. I've been weighing a short here for some time and just can't pull the trigger, my main reason of the line curiosity. 

I wanted to short so bad on the Ackman news but didn't :kicksrock:

They're already very expensive in comparison to the vertical. I see them at best as market perform and more likely as market underperform. I struggle to not see them in the mid $300's at some point over the next 12 months. The growth is gone, they need to be trading closer to their peers in terms of valuation IMO. 
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Forever?  OMGSELL!!!

 
Metal Bulletin low-grade cobalt prices rose to $12.30-13 per lb on Friday, up from $12.15-12.80 on Wednesday, while high-grade prices stood at $12.50-13.20, up 50 cents on the high end.

Adopting the often-used definition of a bull market as one that rises by more than 20% from a cyclical low point, cobalt prices entered a bull market on July 15, when the low-grade price reached $10.95, up 21.67% from lows of $9 seen in December.

Taking Friday's price move into account, the low-grade low cobalt price is now up 36.67% from its lowest point reached in December, and there are broad expectations that prices could move higher still going into the fourth quarter as consumers turn jittery about supply and investments in the electric vehicle sector continue.

While the volume of sales dropped this week following brisk trade seen at the start of September, buyers who were making enquiries found most traders and producers in a bullish mood.
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:coffee:  

 
Bob Sacamano said:
Forever?  OMGSELL!!!
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When you look at their Q2 reports you can make one of two assumptions, they've weathered the storm and recovery is happening, or they're ####ed. 

I see the Chiptopia program as existing customers who never left visiting more and some giveaways from the marketing dept. I have no position here, so hopefully Bob makes money - was just looking for some perspective that maybe I've been missing on CMG. 

Had an amazing week shorting light sweet delicious crude, so being sarcastic ##### doesn't bother me at all. 

 
General Malaise said:
I know.  I keep trying to find some alternative stocks to play this move, but there's really not much out there.  Company is +400% YTD, so maybe it's overdue for a pause.
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I keep reading FCX for this, but I have a hard time believing it could ever matter relative to the price of copper for them.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
When you look at their Q2 reports you can make one of two assumptions, they've weathered the storm and recovery is happening, or they're ####ed. 

I see the Chiptopia program as existing customers who never left visiting more and some giveaways from the marketing dept. I have no position here, so hopefully Bob makes money - was just looking for some perspective that maybe I've been missing on CMG. 

Had an amazing week shorting light sweet delicious crude, so being sarcastic ##### doesn't bother me at all. 
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Or you could look at it as a situation that, like almost everything in the world, is more than binary. 

I'd love to know how their customer loyalty looks these days among millenials.  Idiots like me will forget about this and step foot back inside there some day.  Hell, I ate at Jack in the Box in a drunken stupor not that long ago, and their issues back in the day were way worse than Chipotle's.  Millenials seem to hold grudges against companies, though.  If they're going back, that might change my perception of the company.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
When you look at their Q2 reports you can make one of two assumptions, they've weathered the storm and recovery is happening, or they're ####ed. 

I see the Chiptopia program as existing customers who never left visiting more and some giveaways from the marketing dept. I have no position here, so hopefully Bob makes money - was just looking for some perspective that maybe I've been missing on CMG. 

Had an amazing week shorting light sweet delicious crude, so being sarcastic ##### doesn't bother me at all. 
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Fast and healthy isn't going away any time soon.  People have a short memory span, they'll be fine.

 
St. Louis Bob said:
Fast and healthy isn't going away any time soon.  People have a short memory span, they'll be fine.
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I think this is the problem that potentially makes it linger longer for them.  It's tough to sell that when you were just the reason people were getting sick.

But eventually, yep, people will move on from it.  Just a matter of how long eventually is.

 
St. Louis Bob said:
Fast and healthy isn't going away any time soon.  People have a short memory span, they'll be fine.
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I agree 100% with this, but part of my negative bias is also menu exhaustion. Sure, they added the Sofritas, but it does get boring. I just don't see them outperforming the general market. 

Usually I like most of your plays, this was one of the first I was on such an opposite end on, so was just curious. 

 
Bob Sacamano said:
Or you could look at it as a situation that, like almost everything in the world, is more than binary. 

I'd love to know how their customer loyalty looks these days among millenials.  Idiots like me will forget about this and step foot back inside there some day.  Hell, I ate at Jack in the Box in a drunken stupor not that long ago, and their issues back in the day were way worse than Chipotle's.  Millenials seem to hold grudges against companies, though.  If they're going back, that might change my perception of the company.
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God I miss those sourdough Jacks.  I'd destroy three of those right now if I had them plated in front of me.

 
Bob Sacamano said:
Or you could look at it as a situation that, like almost everything in the world, is more than binary. 

I'd love to know how their customer loyalty looks these days among millenials.  Idiots like me will forget about this and step foot back inside there some day.  Hell, I ate at Jack in the Box in a drunken stupor not that long ago, and their issues back in the day were way worse than Chipotle's.  Millenials seem to hold grudges against companies, though.  If they're going back, that might change my perception of the company.
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Read an article yesterday regarding the people that settled with Chipotle after they got ecoli. One person asked for free burrito coupons along with their settlement money (sounds like most of the money paid out was for medical bills). And the same article also mentioned how many of the other ecoli recipients continued to eat there.

So yeah, people still love Chipotle. 

 
eoMMan said:
Read an article yesterday regarding the people that settled with Chipotle after they got ecoli. One person asked for free burrito coupons along with their settlement money (sounds like most of the money paid out was for medical bills). And the same article also mentioned how many of the other ecoli recipients continued to eat there.

So yeah, people still love Chipotle. 
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Guessing those fall into the, "idiots like me" category.

 
I don't go to Chipotle b/c the lines are always so insanely long, no matter where I am. Never seen one with a short line, honestly.

 
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Bob Sacamano said:
I think this is the problem that potentially makes it linger longer for them.  It's tough to sell that when you were just the reason people were getting sick.

But eventually, yep, people will move on from it.  Just a matter of how long eventually is.
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Nobody, and I mean NOBODY, holds a grudge like Mrs. SLB and she eats there twice a week again. Of course she's not a millennial. Unfortunately.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I agree 100% with this, but part of my negative bias is also menu exhaustion. Sure, they added the Sofritas, but it does get boring. I just don't see them outperforming the general market. 

Usually I like most of your plays, this was one of the first I was on such an opposite end on, so was just curious. 
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Out of favor right now.  Looking at adding more DIS soon too.

 
I've never really experienced any upset stomach from them TBH. I've got one that is two blocks from my house, lines used to be insane, now the only time there are lines is when they only have 2-3 employees working. 

My wife is slowly forgetting her "no Chipotle" rule, but she def isn't loving them anymore. We used to hit it 3-4x a month, my son loves it. I can get a fajita bowl with chicken/corn/guac and have a healthy meal, I was big on them too. After the health stuff, she swore it off and said our son is not allowed near there. She discovered a newly opened place with a similar (but expanded) menu and prefers them now. 

I got my son Chipotle maybe two weeks ago, she wasn't the happiest, but she let him eat it. If this was 6 months ago, she would've put it in the garbage. I'd bet the health scare was the best thing that ever happened to every local taqueria in the country. I'd think places like this are who Chipotle will need to snag their customers back from. 

So I agree with the thought people will forget 10000%, but I think they face an uphill battle winning back customers and growing, especially at their lofty valuations compared to peers. Also, from a technical standpoint, if they close below $400 for consecutive days, they could see some aggressive selling. They're really sitting on a ledge right now, if they hold it, could springboard. 

 
Stocktwits put something on Facebook saying $5000 in apple call options turned into $450,000 in four days. I need to hit something like that. 

 
NREC34 said:
Stocktwits put something on Facebook saying $5000 in apple call options turned into $450,000 in four days. I need to hit something like that. 
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If you dollar cost averaged Apple over the last 15 years at $500 a month, your $90k would be $2M. 

Whenever the next market crash happens, whether next year, 2018, 2019, 2020, etc - I'm applying that strategy to my 4 favorite stocks. 

As of now it would be AMZN/FB/GOOG/AAPL

 
St. Louis Bob said:
I suck at enough things in life, don't need to add options trading to that well diversified portfolio.
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It can be complex, but it doesn't have to be.  I know less than many on the topic, but as the market has ramped up to this level, I've gone less to buying stocks and more to selling puts at levels where I might be more comfortable owning some of them. 

If you're planning to buy it soon at say $90 anyway, it's not the worst way to approach it.  If it's above $90 on 1/20, you have $340, no obligation, and can consider whether you want to do it again or maybe buy outright this time.  If it's under $90 on 1/20, then you own 100 shares at a basis of $86.60, which is a decent amount less than you were considering buying into.

 
I generally try to focus on those with less volatility.  CAT's probably #1 on that list (No probably.  It is).  Had LRCX and HON for a bit.  Got into GM when I thought it was mildly undervalued.  And DIS a bit ago.  Was considering more DIS with the very puts I just suggested.

You're not going to get rich that way, but it's not a bad way to make quick cash as long as you stick to companies you wouldn't mind owning anyway.

 
Bob Sacamano said:
GM
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So undervalued, market just shows them no love. Unfortunately, the auto industry is supposed to be facing some pain over the next couple of quarters, and they'll be a causality of being in the category if this comes to fruition, but what a great company.

P/E is like 4.5 last I checked, amazing earnings, huge dividend... IDK what isn't to like - Biggest issue is rising yields elsewhere could cause selling. 

Long term, great portfolio hold IMO. 

 
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Bob Sacamano said:
It can be complex, but it doesn't have to be.  I know less than many on the topic, but as the market has ramped up to this level, I've gone less to buying stocks and more to selling puts at levels where I might be more comfortable owning some of them. 

If you're planning to buy it soon at say $90 anyway, it's not the worst way to approach it.  If it's above $90 on 1/20, you have $340, no obligation, and can consider whether you want to do it again or maybe buy outright this time.  If it's under $90 on 1/20, then you own 100 shares at a basis of $86.60, which is a decent amount less than you were considering buying into.
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Thanks GB, I hear you.  Hoping to hold long term, collect dividends, maybe bone Minnie.

 
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