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Stock Thread (36 Viewers)

Is the Trump rally officially dead?  Seems like Washington politics are going to drive the market down for a while. 

 
I have had some dry powder since Dec/Jan and have just watched stocks i liked go up while I was either too afraid to jump in or saw it run up so much that I was waiting for a rational pullback. Well there are some stocks in my range now but I just can't tell if they are gonna keep going down because Trump is an idiot and he's about to forge recklessly into global politics or if this is the time to buy and hold. In particular I'm talking about two stocks I have been courting which are PGNX and TWLO, Any chart opinions on them from the crew?

 
NajehHejan said:
I have had some dry powder since Dec/Jan and have just watched stocks i liked go up while I was either too afraid to jump in or saw it run up so much that I was waiting for a rational pullback. Well there are some stocks in my range now but I just can't tell if they are gonna keep going down because Trump is an idiot and he's about to forge recklessly into global politics or if this is the time to buy and hold. In particular I'm talking about two stocks I have been courting which are PGNX and TWLO, Any chart opinions on them from the crew?
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Yeah, I'm in the same boat. Majority of my holdings are dry powder at this time...Feels so top heavy, and yet it keeps on going.

 
General Malaise said:
Re: Cobalt - I work for a very unique firm.  Once in a blue moon we stumble upon a great money making endeavor and load the damn boat on it.  We are hired for our uniqueness and willingness to swing ####### hard at an idea we believe in.  This is what we did in 2004-2007 with uranium so we have cache....Did it again with Amaya on the equity side 2014.  We're at it again with cobalt and that's really our only focus right now.  We've filled one warehouse in CT with material and are on to another warehouse down the road.  So in my professional life, I often feel like the guy strapped to the missell in Dr. Strangelove....I'm thrilled and scared to death at the same time.

Personally, I allocate my portfolio to lever off what my team is doing while still not putting myself at great risk.  I spent 8 years as a trader for a dedicated short seller who was all in on the neck of the housing collapse.  So I'm conflicted. I am long long long cobalt and some other stocks I have good visibility to and very concentrated.  And yet my experience tells me a HUGE ####### shoe is going to drop.  And when it drops, that fall is coming from way up high and will be excruciating.  

I might sell a few things and put out some 2x and 3x inverse ETFs.  As Han Solo would say "I got a bad feeling about this".  

But go cobalt go.  We started buying material at $10.80.  paying above $20 now.  Twice it broke $50....In 1977 and 2008.  That was without the EV revolution.  This #### gonna get crazy.
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Ok so I am two months behind the times, but how does your average investor bet on cobalt? I just looked at CIE and it has tanked. What's the deal?

 
Really would like to invest in hyperloop 1 or spacex. :kicksrock:

Thinking solar is finally going to break out (long term) but I'm not sure which companies will last.  There's a lot of inconsistency and risk in individual companies for sure as they develop and need funding.

 
John Bender said:
Really kicking myself for taking my 15% TWLO profit and banking it.  Thing is ridiculous.

C earnings tomorrow.  Currently enjoying +12% profit there.  JPM earnings is a good sign...I guess?  Not sure what I'm going to do with it today. Leaning hold right now. 

CAT never stops going up.

I own AAPL 2/1 vs FB.  Thinking of finally rebalancing it to 1/1.  

I'm mainly just bored today.  Hello all.
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Looks like a GREAT call now.   Done buying myself and now have 180 @ $30.21

 
The problem with Tesla and why I avoid it is that it is purely driven on sentiment - their earnings, numbers, cash burn, liquidity, EVERYTHING, mean absolutely zero. They could announce they sold 12 cars in the first quarter and a little fluff from Musk sends it up 4%.

I've been very disciplined avoiding shorting Tesla, luckily! 

Tesla isn't investing, it is an absolute gamble, I'd have more fun in Vegas.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Love the play, as it makes a #### ton of sense... With that being said, they prob did you a favor.
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I have no idea how TSLA has the valuation it has.  They are issuing equitiy on a constant basis to cover their cash burn.  And the valuation keeps going up despite that.

Irrational exuberance at its finest.

 
pecorino said:
Ok so I am two months behind the times, but how does your average investor bet on cobalt? I just looked at CIE and it has tanked. What's the deal?
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Probably because CIE - despite its name - has absolutely NOTHING to do with cobalt.  They explore for deep water oil and maybe natural gas?  I've never once recommended this stock and to be honest, never even heard of it before.  

To answer your question, there isn't a good pure play on cobalt, at least not yet.  If you want to play Glencore, one of the world's leading producers of cobalt, you have to realize that cobalt represents only 5% of their EBITA.  They are a huge global mining company and cobalt is a by-product metal of copper and nickel, which are much bigger drivers of revenue for the behemoth mining companies.  On the other end of the barbell you have little penny stocks like eCobalt (which I started recommending when the stock was ~0.40ish cents) or Fortune Minerals, which are fully engaged in the exploration of cobalt properties.  However, these juniors will never be large producers of cobalt because again, it's a by-product metal and deposits of cobalt in eCobalt's Idaho property - while fully permitted - will never amount to meaningful production.  Maybe 1,000 MT per annum?  

However, in a rising tide, all boats are lifted and the eCobalts of the world have been direct beneficiaries of cobalt's price ascension over the last year.  You will see other mining and exploration companies (almost all of them Canadian based) scramble to change their name and prospectus to include cobalt exploration.  It's what happened during the uranium run of 2004-2007.  But eCobalt has advanced 388% over the last year, so is that something you want to jump into now?  I wouldn't, and we know the act of these junior miners....as soon as they catch a bid, they are out there issuing more shares.  Rinse and repeat.  

IMO, I think we'll see a cobalt pure play come to market, much like UPC did with uranium, only I think the operators and underwriters will be smarter with this product, ie - not simply a closed-end fund.

 
Any of you guys ever heard of an oil company Genie? Symbol is GNE. 

I have a friend that says they ought to do real well if Trump continues bombing the ME. I have not done my DD on it though. 

 
I also got very heavy in VIRT. 

Its a high frequency trader. Looking to take out KCG soon. Pays a good dividend and makes more money with more market volatility. Ought be a safe haven for the crash. 

 
General Malaise said:
Probably because CIE - despite its name - has absolutely NOTHING to do with cobalt.  They explore for deep water oil and maybe natural gas?  I've never once recommended this stock and to be honest, never even heard of it before.  

To answer your question, there isn't a good pure play on cobalt, at least not yet.  If you want to play Glencore, one of the world's leading producers of cobalt, you have to realize that cobalt represents only 5% of their EBITA.  They are a huge global mining company and cobalt is a by-product metal of copper and nickel, which are much bigger drivers of revenue for the behemoth mining companies.  On the other end of the barbell you have little penny stocks like eCobalt (which I started recommending when the stock was ~0.40ish cents) or Fortune Minerals, which are fully engaged in the exploration of cobalt properties.  However, these juniors will never be large producers of cobalt because again, it's a by-product metal and deposits of cobalt in eCobalt's Idaho property - while fully permitted - will never amount to meaningful production.  Maybe 1,000 MT per annum?  

However, in a rising tide, all boats are lifted and the eCobalts of the world have been direct beneficiaries of cobalt's price ascension over the last year.  You will see other mining and exploration companies (almost all of them Canadian based) scramble to change their name and prospectus to include cobalt exploration.  It's what happened during the uranium run of 2004-2007.  But eCobalt has advanced 388% over the last year, so is that something you want to jump into now?  I wouldn't, and we know the act of these junior miners....as soon as they catch a bid, they are out there issuing more shares.  Rinse and repeat.  

IMO, I think we'll see a cobalt pure play come to market, much like UPC did with uranium, only I think the operators and underwriters will be smarter with this product, ie - not simply a closed-end fund.
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:popcorn:  keep us posted!

 
Unveil for a semi coming in 6 months and pickup truck in 18-24 months, that is worth $5-$7b of market cap. Love Tesla :lmao:

I'm not going to refute they make a great car, but something tells me the majority of F150 or Dodge Ram owners, aren't all about Tesla, jmho.

 
My CMG short was amazing, covered pretty close to the lows, but I am getting very intrigued again - think we've got some more exuberance on that one, but unlike Tesla, much easier for investors to bail. 

Currently at $465. $500 and I might initiate, excited for their earnings. 

 
I'm not a huge technical guy like @siffoin who I would be interested in hearing his take, but IMO investors would be wise watching S&P futs around here. Below 2320-2323 and I think we could be entering pullback territory. We're getting really close to that.

 
Also, I've been building a position in CCI, I can't find anything not to like about it - long long long term hold for me and I am going to keep adding.

 
St. Louis Bob said:
I put my order in at $303, it's at $305 now. :shrug:
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I've never shorted personally, so forgive the ignorance.  I assume you have to get a borrow first from your broker before you can short; must you also pay the negative rebate on this?  Can't imagine it's cheap to borrow a stock with a ~25% short interest in it.  

 
General Malaise said:
I've never shorted personally, so forgive the ignorance.  I assume you have to get a borrow first from your broker before you can short; must you also pay the negative rebate on this?  Can't imagine it's cheap to borrow a stock with a ~25% short interest in it.  
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You need to have a margin account which I do and have shorted many times before for years.  The message I received is  "TSLA is not available for short selling at this time."  :shrug:   First time ever I was denied and it was only a lousy 15 shares.

ETA  Really the only rule is a stock must be over $5.00 a share to short.  You could right puts for the same effect but I don't have an options account and don't want one.  I'm too sick the way it is. :bag:

 
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St. Louis Bob said:
You need to have a margin account which I do and have shorted many times before for years.  The message I received is  "TSLA is not available for short selling at this time."  :shrug:   First time ever I was denied and it was only a lousy 15 shares.

ETA  Really the only rule is a stock must be over $5.00 a share to short.  You could right puts for the same effect but I don't have an options account and don't want one.  I'm too sick the way it is. :bag:
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Right, okay I figured you had margin, but was curious if you were forced to get a borrow/locate first before you shorted the way funds/institutions are supposed to do before shorting.  Would imagine inventory to short TSLA is in short supply, no pun intended.

 
General Malaise said:
Right, okay I figured you had margin, but was curious if you were forced to get a borrow/locate first before you shorted the way funds/institutions are supposed to do before shorting.  Would imagine inventory to short TSLA is in short supply, no pun intended.
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I trade online and it always acquired shares automatically. It's funny because I was explaining to Mrs. SLB what a short was and how shares need to be available but said I've never had an issue with that. 

 
Obviously TSLA is way overvalued from a fundamentals standpoint, but Musk is betting on all the right horses.  Transportation electrification is the next big thing in energy, and developing solutions to replace govt and large commercial fleets is a goldmine.  If successful he'll make a mint off the CA govt alone, not to mention leading the space where all other states and the Feds will eventually go themselves.  

 
fantasycurse42 said:
The problem with Tesla and why I avoid it is that it is purely driven on sentiment - their earnings, numbers, cash burn, liquidity, EVERYTHING, mean absolutely zero. They could announce they sold 12 cars in the first quarter and a little fluff from Musk sends it up 4%.

I've been very disciplined avoiding shorting Tesla, luckily! 

Tesla isn't investing, it is an absolute gamble, I'd have more fun in Vegas.




 
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Never short Tesla.

 
St. Louis Bob said:
You need to have a margin account which I do and have shorted many times before for years.  The message I received is  "TSLA is not available for short selling at this time."  :shrug:   First time ever I was denied and it was only a lousy 15 shares.

ETA  Really the only rule is a stock must be over $5.00 a share to short.  You could right puts for the same effect but I don't have an options account and don't want one.  I'm too sick the way it is. :bag:
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Saw a tweet that short interest was at an all time high in tsla (maybe a day or so ago), so perhaps there really wasn't any shares to short.

That said, this latest news definitely feels like we've entered vaporware territory.  There's some big problems they're going to have to circumvent for the pickup trucks that I see.  A model x can tow 5000 lbs for a 100 miles, your average F150 tows 10,000 lbs for 180 miles.  Are the people buying pickups as actual work trucks (not the escalade pickup crowd) going to be interested?  Does that problem multiply in the semi sector? Can this be solved by better batteries?

 
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metoo said:
Never short Tesla.
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At some point it will be a good idea.  Sentiment can turn quickly and that's all this company has.  Their cash burn is prodigious and the fact that shareholders are allowing themselves to be diluted to finance yet more cash burn will only last so long.

 
I've never shorted a stock but how can this work if institutions are not selling? Tesla believers are like a cult. 

 
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