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Stock Thread (47 Viewers)

Evilgrin 72 said:
I was in on NFLX years ago at $14.  Sold at $26.  :wall:
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Somewhere in this thread after NFLX missed earnings, I picked up 3k shares at $84, sold for like a $5k profit (might've been more, I honestly don't remember, but def not much more) the next day and thought I was a genius... I look back at that as my biggest investing misstep ever. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Somewhere in this thread after NFLX missed earnings, I picked up 3k shares at $84, sold for like a $5k profit (might've been more, I honestly don't remember, but def not much more) the next day and thought I was a genius... I look back at that as my biggest investing misstep ever. 
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Same here.The b-tch of it is, I bought it after a long and sometimes contentious discussion over about 20 beers with my little brother in which I claimed that streaming and on demand programming was ultimately going to usurp the network/cable model.  He told me I was nuts.  In retrospect, I was right and he was wrong, but that would have been the time to have the courage of my convictions and just hold the MFer long-term.  Instead, I took the quick profit and put it all into a down payment on a house to avoid PMI payments and in the process, cost myself $200k (if I still held today) to avoid an $85 a month payment.  What an ###hole.

 
Walking Boot said:
Anyway, I have no idea why they're valued so highly. There's nothing but more competition coming, they have to outbid everyone else in the marketplace for content. They have to buy their bandwidth from Amazon, and who knows when that deal can change. The only thing they really have for themselves is their Original Series, which have to cost so much I don't know if they're really making the return on investment. Even on the Original Series they have, they are entering into more deals to license shows they're not producing and just stamping "Original Series" on them, but, if they folded up, those shows would be free to move to other services. With Disney pulling out to create their own streaming service, and the other studios not far behind with their best properties, I don't get how they go up so fast so often right now.
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I don't get it either. I understand why AMZN gets the pass with hardly any profit - I see what they're doing and nobody is even close to competing (I mean they have competition from numerous other companies, but as a whole, they've got their hands in so many places with a very strong presence)... I just don't understand how people think they're worth $100B. 

One thing I am confident of, when the bull does die, out of FANG, they fall the hardest. 

 
ethinking about getting into some leverage banking etfs, such as FAS for example...so much positive news out right now could be a decent swing trade.

 
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See how good a read I have on JPM, been watching the ticker all day (funny that dollar wise, BAC has traded an equal dollar amount and is up more, WTF, but that is besides the point)...

I expect a slow trickle down for the next hour and a 30-50 cent selloff into the last 5-10 minutes. 

Also, JPM reported a bigger than expected deferred tax loss, almost an extra 20% and somehow C who will have the biggest by far is up the most out of any bank... Guess the market views huge losses as a good thing :shrug:

If they're off by the same as JPM, they'll be at $24B, WTF?

 
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Walking Boot said:
Yeah. I mean, they're the only FANG that is completely dependent on another FANG. If Amazon raises their rent, they're dead. 
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Given the Disney/Fox deal that seems like it was done largely to present Disney with an opportunity to launch a streaming services with the bollocks to compete with Netflix, might it make sense for Amazon and Netflix to ultimately come to some sort of arrangement that merges Netflix with Amazon Prime viewing?  It's an odd relationship they have going on right now where they're both competitors and bedfellows simultaneously.

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
Given the Disney/Fox deal that seems like it was done largely to present Disney with an opportunity to launch a streaming services with the bollocks to compete with Netflix, might it make sense for Amazon and Netflix to ultimately come to some sort of arrangement that merges Netflix with Amazon Prime viewing?  It's an odd relationship they have going on right now where they're both competitors and bedfellows simultaneously.
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1. Apple buys Netflix

2. ....

3. Profit?

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
1. Apple buys Netflix

2. ....

3. Profit?
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IIRC, Apple's biggest acquisition in the last so many years was Beats, for $3B. I just never see that happening. Furthermore, there are other media companies with much more attractive valuations... Apple already has the screen in front of users - if they did acquire someone else (which I don't really see them making a play to do), it would be very bad for NFLX. 

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
Given the Disney/Fox deal that seems like it was done largely to present Disney with an opportunity to launch a streaming services with the bollocks to compete with Netflix, might it make sense for Amazon and Netflix to ultimately come to some sort of arrangement that merges Netflix with Amazon Prime viewing?  It's an odd relationship they have going on right now where they're both competitors and bedfellows simultaneously.
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Is there anything good on Prime? I have it, but I don't think I've used it more than like 5 times.

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
1. Apple buys Netflix

2. ....

3. Profit?
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I have always felt (based on nothing) that if Apple buys anyone, it will be Hulu.  Disney/Fox vs. Netflix/Amazon vs. Apple/Hulu feels like the CBS/NBC/ABC of the next 40 years.  I don't even know why I think this, it's just a wild hunch.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
See how good a read I have on JPM, been watching the ticker all day (funny that dollar wise, BAC has traded an equal dollar amount and is up more, WTF, but that is besides the point)...

I expect a slow trickle down for the next hour and a 30-50 cent selloff into the last 5-10 minutes. 

Also, JPM reported a bigger than expected deferred tax loss, almost an extra 20% and somehow C who will have the biggest by far is up the most out of any bank... Guess the market views huge losses as a good thing :shrug:

If they're off by the same as JPM, they'll be at $24B, WTF?
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Nailed it?

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Is there anything good on Prime? I have it, but I don't think I've used it more than like 5 times.
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Yeah, there's some stuff, but probably not enough.  Prime TV/Movies is probably afloat only because it's part of the larger Prime package, I'd never pay for it on its own, but I pay for Prime mainly for the shipping and this is just baked in.  Seems odd for Amazon to have a competing platform, when if they merged with Netflix (or acquired them,) they'd have a huge library even without Fox and a TON of money with which to develop even more original programming and/or buy existing IPs.  Netflix already has 85 million subscribers and Prime has over 60 million.  Even after you account for the (likely) large overlap, you'd be looking at a subscriber base of probably over 100,000,000 people - that would be super hard for Disney to compete with.

 
TripItUp said:
ethinking about getting into some leverage banking etfs, such as FAS for example...so much positive news out right now could be a decent swing trade.
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A lot of irrational exuberance going on in here.  That said I did buy a good chunk of MTUM early this year, my biggest purchase in a while.  It boosts my equity allocation up a few points.  I don't think I quite hit 60% equities, but I'm getting close.  It was more of a change in allocation than a strategic buy, but while I'm buying I might as well hit this momentum train.

Looking at what's going on, this is going to be the year of energy and materials.  The markets are pricing in significant inflation raises from the Fed(REITs are getting smoked - there will be a time to load the truck there, but it isn't yet) and we're seeing that along with organic demand take hold in those sectors.  

 
Sand said:
A lot of irrational exuberance going on in here.  That said I did buy a good chunk of MTUM early this year, my biggest purchase in a while.  It boosts my equity allocation up a few points.  I don't think I quite hit 60% equities, but I'm getting close.  It was more of a change in allocation than a strategic buy, but while I'm buying I might as well hit this momentum train.

Looking at what's going on, this is going to be the year of energy and materials.  The markets are pricing in significant inflation raises from the Fed(REITs are getting smoked - there will be a time to load the truck there, but it isn't yet) and we're seeing that along with organic demand take hold in those sectors.  
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To nobody's surprise, I'd add financials in there too. 

Nonetheless, COP, which I might trim around $62.50.

 
Sand said:
Buy the rumor, sell the news.
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Prob a made up story by the TGT execs, maybe they had a bad Q4. 

Next press release; they're exploring blockchain technology.

I think it could make sense for AMZN, but the Whole Foods acquisition came out of nowhere IIRC, & I'd expect more of the same on their next one.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Prob a made up story by the TGT execs, maybe they had a bad Q4. 

Next press release; they're exploring blockchain technology.

I think it could make sense for AMZN, but the Whole Foods acquisition came out of nowhere IIRC, & I'd expect more of the same on their next one.
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Someone needs to get on this.

 
I'd also like Costco as an acquisition for AMZN more than TGT - they get you the bulk stuff while also covering their bases on brick and mortar.

 
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Also loving Berkshire Hathaway B Class.

Just wanted to say I invest with Buffett and thought this would pretty be like buying a mutual fund. It has been tearing it up.

 
Walking Boot said:
Really feels like the economy is humming along. Dunno how long it'll last, of course, and if it's just optimism instead of pragmatism, but, it's been a long time since I've seen it like this. 
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Right now I'm on track for a 50% year.  So I'm hoping another 350 days, at least?

Actually, I'll happily take 12.75% - that will open the gates to FU.

 
Last thing I just did before going to bed is check the futures; Dow up almost 200 points... gotta be honest, this is almost scary. I think we really need to sell off like 5% or something just to let this market take a breather, it’s getting out of hand, and I say this as someone who is pretty heavily invested right now. 

I feel like a genius for the winners I’ve been riding in here, but truth be told, I can hand an 8 year old a dart board with any company in the Dow, and the odds are strong he’d hit equal winners. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Last thing I just did before going to bed is check the futures; Dow up almost 200 points... gotta be honest, this is almost scary. I think we really need to sell off like 5% or something just to let this market take a breather, it’s getting out of hand, and I say this as someone who is pretty heavily invested right now. 

I feel like a genius for the winners I’ve been riding in here, but truth be told, I can hand an 8 year old a dart board with any company in the Dow, and the odds are strong he’d hit equal winners. 
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I have a 101% ROI in 7 months and I am, for all intents and purposes, an 8 year old with a dart board. 

 
Walking Boot said:
There was a post in this thread, maybe 4 months ago, with a link to a video that really hit for me. Can't remember who or where. But the argument was, everyone is listening to the "smart advice" now, and pouring their money into passive index funds with low fees. As more and more people get employed (and get 401ks and other workplace/retirement account access), we just keep getting weekly dumps of cash into the market as a whole. No one is buying, say, Coca-Cola specifically, thinking "This company is going to grow so much bigger!", but, by buying broad low-fee index funds, everything in the market is just going up as a whole. Rising tide is lifting all boats. So companies that are the stodgy old blue-chips that are as big as they're gonna get (and should be stable dividend plays instead of growth stocks), like Coca-Cola, keep getting more and more invested in them because they're in that big basket. Same with anything in the DJIA, so many passive funds hold those stocks that the momentum going into the market can't help but push them higher.

The plays for companies not in the broad index funds are the bets that people are throwing money at anyway. Tesla and such.

I dunno where the ride ends, or even if it does soon if at all, or where the leverage is if the above suggestion was accurate. But I don't think we can look at this as "scary" as in irrational, instead, it's almost inflationary. So much money pouring in to the whole market, buying everything because the passive funds are tapped into everything. Dunno if it's worth trying to swim against this tide or ride it out and see where it goes.
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This

I mean what else are you gonna pour your 401k into?

 
A little frustrating that every bank rode the JPM wave Friday (some even more than them!), they're all up again today, yet JPM is down. ####### WFC who had #### earnings is up - this morning they were down 2% premarket, I was searching to see if Jamie Dimon had sold his shares or anything, don't know what to make of it. 

When I said I wouldn't mind a 5% dip for a breather, I meant the market in unison, not just one of my largest holdings taking the ride by itself.

 
culdeus said:
How many 401k can even get gold
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It took me a little while to figure out how to buy gold in my 401k and I suspect my story won’t be useful to others who may need to find their own way to make it happen. I’ve got 20% in GLD right now and I like the diversification outside of stocks. When the bombs begin to fly, I expect it to really grow and it does provide an answer to the original question.

 
Thinking about getting out of stocks altogether in the short term...over 50% returns on several of my stocks this year...just feels overheated.

 
So I continue with boring purchases.  Did a bit of rotation and sold some BDCS, JNJ, and a couple REITs that I got as spinoffs.  Bought some O and VTR, both of which are hated right now.  Just buying solid, growing companies with 4+% yields.  :yawn:   Plan on buying more DLR, but it popped today pretty hard, so I'm going to wait and see there.

 
One thing I noticed this morning even as we opened up fairly big was that TVIX was up 4.5%... I have backed off day trading as it is a zero sum game, but might start keeping tabs on that, just as an indicator. 

 
I wouldn't get cute before this earnings season - balance sheets are pretty rock solid, cash on hand is at or near record levels, and based off of all the other data we've seen lately, good chance it will surprise to the upside. 

If there is selling this week, I'd think it is nothing more than noise and trying to shake weak hands. 

Geopolitical is the only thing derailing anything for the immediate future IMO, hopefully they keep (as they should) the peace with the Olympics coming up in South Korea.

I've been following credit card delinquency numbers as an indicator, when that starts rising, I think you might want to be alarmed, nothing alarming there at all right now.

 
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