Stock Thread (35 Viewers)

[Buckna]

I agree more with Culdeus on this one. AT&T stopped subsidizing at the start of 2016, it's been 3 full years, it is now full force. Kinda think his take on leasing makes sense too. 

I used to get a new phone every 2 years like clockwork, $300, you got it! I've now stretched my cycle to 4 years. 

Finally offering cheap battery replacements really hurt them as well (but I guess they had no choice since it came out they were sapping battery in older models on purpose.) I upgraded this year, but won't be doing it again for a long time.

Edit: Without subsidies, they are basically betting on consumers to basically buy a new computer for $800~$1K every two years. That's not sustainable without subsidies, IMO. Not until someone thinks up some sort of new gee-whiz features we can't live without.

 

[fantasycurse42]

& on China:

Trump meets his best friend Xi at the end of November. Let's look at a timeline since:

12/6 - Pretty important player in the China ecosystem arrested at the request of the USA

12/18 - Xi delivers 80 minute speech to mark the 40th anniversary of China "opening up to reform" or whatever they want to call it:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-18/xi-says-reform-and-opening-up-is-revolution-in-china-s-history

Xi Says No One Can Dictate Reforms to China

President Xi Jinping said China would stick to its policy agenda, despite pressure from the U.S. and others to allow more competition in its economic system and reduce support for state industry.

“no one is in the position to dictate to the Chinese people what should and should not be done.”

He reasserted his contention that the country had entered a “new era” under his leadership and was poised for a bigger role in world affairs.

he reiterated the need for the Communist Party to exercise leadership and control over all aspects of the country’s development.

“What and how to reform must be based on the overarching goal of improving and developing the socialist system with Chinese characteristics,” Xi said “We will resolutely reform what should or can be changed, but will never reform what cannot be changed.”

Does that sound like a man who is looking to hand over meaningful concessions? 

Then, the guy leading the negotiation on our side, just yesterday:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/02/us-trade-rep-reportedly-thinks-more-tariffs-needed-to-get-meaningful-concessions-from-china.html

And then today from the State Department:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/03/us-issues-new-warning-over-china-travel-urging-increased-caution-.html

So, we can either take the very honest POTUS at face value, or look at the DNA from the crime scene, I know which one I believe. Honestly, I think a deal with China will either be ####ty and Trump folding, or nothing at all. Certainly not a good deal, Xi knows it'll be business as usual in 23 months, he has all the time in the world, Trump does not. 

So even if Trump inks the biggest and greatest deal ever, which we all know would be bull####, I think it provides temporary relief, but does not do much to prolong the cycle by maybe an extra 6 months. 

 

[fantasycurse42]

Finally offering cheap battery replacements really hurt them as well (but I guess they had no choice since it came out they were sapping battery in older models on purpose.) I upgraded this year, but won't be doing it again for a long time.

If Apple develops a 5G compatible iphone (and to me, this will be the start of their next worthwhile cycle, and when you'll want to be bullish again), which it doesn't appear to be a big focus for them as of yet, then I'll buy that, but not until then. 

 

[Don't Noonan]

Let's say you're right, and GDP stays around 2%-2.5% (which I believe might be a rosy outlook, but I'll concede for this discussion), and rates stay in a similar range. 

Current P/E levels stand still well above historical averages. Here they are on the WSJ . I'll summarize:

DJIA: 19.4

Nasdaq 100: 20.54

S&P 500: 19.6

Russell 2000: 39.85

I've heard the argument that they've contracted so much! It's bull####, it isn't where you're coming from, it is where you going. They went from ridiculously high to well above average. If we were at the beginning of a cycle, I could understand the argument, but towards the end, not so much. Don't even get me started on CAPE, still very very high and based on using it to chart returns, you're still looking at an abysmal entry point for a LT investment. 

So where does that leave us? Lower earnings estimates? That isn't good, no? We'll limp over a low bar, earning will grow 5-7% (if things don't fall apart, and everything stays how it has been). How much room does that leave these indexes to expand? Or do you expect the P/E to expand again? Where do you see the indexes going? 

For equity valuation, I really like the rule of 20.  Basically, PE Ratio and inflation on fair value should equal 20.  Currently, the S&P 500 trades at 2463.  2018 earnings came in at 162.50.  That gives a current PE for S&P 500 at 15.15.  2019 earnings are estimated at 172.  That gives you a future PE of 14.32.  Inflation is only at 2%.  

PE ratios are important but I would argue you have to consider where interest rates and inflation are as well.  The 10 year treasury is currently 2.58%.  I don't believe stocks are overvalued right now.

Look back in 2000, the S&P 500 PE was at 33, inflation was at 3.4%, but 10 year treasury was at 6%.  We are no where near those clearly overvalued numbers.

Keep in mind that PE ratios are better for long term valuations.  In the short term, I expect continued volatility.

 

[culdeus]

Finally offering cheap battery replacements really hurt them as well (but I guess they had no choice since it came out they were sapping battery in older models on purpose.) I upgraded this year, but won't be doing it again for a long time.

Edit: Without subsidies, they are basically betting on consumers to basically buy a new computer for $800~$1K every two years. That's not sustainable without subsidies, IMO. Not until someone thinks up some sort of new gee-whiz features we can't live without.

This isn't totally true.  There is a limitation of LiPoly batteries where after about 600 cycles they begin to age rapidly if charged completely to full and discharged to empty.  

To account for this chemistry gap they started banding the available charge on batteries with that age.  

The same thing happens with Tesla cars except in reverse. The first 2-3 years they allow you only to run in what you are calling the "sapped" mode, then they open it up more.  This maintains the range out to what could be 8-10 years which is what you want in a car.  You can tap into this "reserve" charge periodically, but it will give you a warning that you are hurting yourself in doing so.  Tesla doesn't use LiPoly, fwiw.

But for phones people want max battery life at launch out to 2-3 years and Apple attempted to provide an extra 5 years on that given chemistry limitations and got just annihilated for it.  

The reality is people need to take their phone in for an "oil change" every 2-3 years.  At ~45 bucks it's cheap as hell and way worth it.

 

[Mario Kart]

I’m thinking Bend-gate 2.0 is not helping matters. It’s preventing me from buying one. 

 

[humpback]

My bull case is that earnings estimates have been sharply dropped which should make it easier to beat on earnings.  Market seems to be pricing in a recession in 2019, I don't see it, I see GDP growth slowing to 2-2.5%.  If economic data comes in supporting no recession market should rally.  Trade war can end at any time, which would obviously be a big catalyst.

Things that worry me include the Fed balance sheet and the continued unwinding of the QEs.  If the Fed does it fact raise 2-3 times in 2019 along with the unwinding of the balance sheet it is possible we could see a recession in late 2019/early 2020.  Also, not sure the market is pricing in the good possibility Trump loses in 2020 and tax law is reversed.  This would be a big blow to the market.

Thanks for the response. My counterpoints:

• Lower estimates may make them easier to beat, but that doesn't mean it'll be easy/likely (see Apple). Estimates have been dropping for a while and continue to do so as more disappointing reports come out.
  
• I don't think the market is pricing in a recession just yet, only slower growth- current consensus GDP estimates are right in your range.
  
• The trade war can end at any time, or it could continue for a lot longer- right now I see little reason to believe that it's going to end anytime soon.  I also disagree that it would obviously be a big catalyst, that all depends on the details. More likely IMO is that it drags out several more months causing more pain along the way, then they agree to a deal with minor concessions to try and save face. We'd get a relief rally in the market, but we'd still be lower than we were.
  
• The Fed is a big concern, and they are in an almost impossible spot. They want to tighten so they have some ammo for the next downturn, but in doing so they may help bring one on sooner. If they turn much more dovish it will likely only be because the economy softens even more, which at least partially offsets the dovishness.
  
• I brought up the political stuff before, I think it's a pretty big concern for the next several years. Now that the Dems have taken over the House, the next two years are going to be full of investigations and bickering, very likely followed by a Dem POTUS and perhaps even controlling all 3 branches. Then not only could the tax law be reversed, it's possible that they raise taxes and regulations even higher than they were prior. Not trying to get political, you could argue that society would be better off if we did this, but it's hard to argue that the markets wouldn't get punished if it plays out this way.
  

I don't mean to imply that there's nothing good that could happen to help the markets turn around- perhaps we do get a good trade deal with China done quickly, a meaningful infrastructure deal or another fiscal stimulus in place, stronger than expected earnings or economic reports combined with a more dovish Fed, global growth picks back up, Trump quits twitter (), etc. I just think that when you consider the full picture, there are more potential negative catalysts than positive, the odds of the negative ones happening are greater, and the potential downside is greater than the potential upside.

 

[kevzilla]

BMY is acquiring CELG, which is good news for CELG holders like my dad. It was at $67, and the buyout price is $102. It went to $89 pre-market, but has since retreated to $81. Any ideas on why it's so short of the buyout price, and when it might get there?

Before you say "Just sell it, you're up a pile," he bought it last January at the top. Even at the full buyout price, he would take a tiny haircut. His Research Director really let him down on this one.

 

[Capella]

I agree more with Culdeus on this one. AT&T stopped subsidizing at the start of 2016, it's been 3 full years, it is now full force. Kinda think his take on leasing makes sense too. 

I used to get a new phone every 2 years like clockwork, $300, you got it! I've now stretched my cycle to 4 years. 

Apple reached too far. I’m not paying 1100 for another phone that does the same thing the one I have now does. I check twitter, stocks, some websites and apps. I can just keep this phone for 5 years and do that. All their upgrades is just nerd #### I don’t care about. 

 

[NREC34]

BMY is acquiring CELG, which is good news for CELG holders like my dad. It was at $67, and the buyout price is $102. It went to $89 pre-market, but has since retreated to $81. Any ideas on why it's so short of the buyout price, and when it might get there?

Before you say "Just sell it, you're up a pile," he bought it last January at the top. Even at the full buyout price, he would take a tiny haircut. His Research Director really let him down on this one.

Bristol Myers shareholders can veto the deal, can’t they?

 

[kevzilla]

Bristol Myers shareholders can veto the deal, can’t they?

I believe so, but I don't believe they will. They've been working on this deal since September, apparently. Both boards have signed off. BMY  holders know they need a bigger pipeline.

 

[fantasycurse42]

BMY is acquiring CELG, which is good news for CELG holders like my dad. It was at $67, and the buyout price is $102. It went to $89 pre-market, but has since retreated to $81. Any ideas on why it's so short of the buyout price, and when it might get there?

Before you say "Just sell it, you're up a pile," he bought it last January at the top. Even at the full buyout price, he would take a tiny haircut. His Research Director really let him down on this one.

You need to subtract the buyout price from the trading price - looks like the market is pricing in a 20% chance or so the buyout doesn't go through. 

 

[Don't Noonan]

BMY is acquiring CELG, which is good news for CELG holders like my dad. It was at $67, and the buyout price is $102. It went to $89 pre-market, but has since retreated to $81. Any ideas on why it's so short of the buyout price, and when it might get there?

Before you say "Just sell it, you're up a pile," he bought it last January at the top. Even at the full buyout price, he would take a tiny haircut. His Research Director really let him down on this one.

I believe the terms are 1 share of BMY (currently $44.36) and $50 cash.  CELG at $81 right now because possibility deal does not close.  It is projected to close in 3rd quarter which is a ways away, and still needs approval.

 

[stbugs]

I agree more with Culdeus on this one. AT&T stopped subsidizing at the start of 2016, it's been 3 full years, it is now full force. Kinda think his take on leasing makes sense too. 

I used to get a new phone every 2 years like clockwork, $300, you got it! I've now stretched my cycle to 4 years. 

That’s fine and I agree somewhat. To think that it took three years for the subsidies to finally have an impact IMHO means that it isn’t the only impact and that’s what I said. If I could still upgrade for $199 or $299, it would be tempting but that’s not much different than my BOGO example. Subsidies aren’t there but there are sure still phone deals to be had.

I’m older than you and have probably been through more product lifecycles. When I was upgrading before there were clear advantages. Just like my PC example. When the product gets mature enough that everything you do now doesn’t really change by upgrading then you won’t. I used a PC with Windows 3.1 all the way through the current Windows 10. The early jumps were gigantic in terms of performance and being able to improve productivity. What is the attraction to get me to buy a new iPhone? It’s a maturing product and a 3-4 year contract of phone is good enough.

 

[siffoin]

I think a lot of times we seek out information that confirms our belief/desire.  With investing this is a bad idea.

The TRUTH of the market = PRICE.  Really that's all that matters.  Price tells you where we are right now.  And knowing where we are right now (as well as where we have been) can give us a good indication of where we are going.  

If we look at price right now and we look at where price has been - then we can reasonably determine future direction of price.  If we look at price performance over the past month - 3 months - 6 months and 1 year...that seems reasonable to provide thought-thru actionable intel on what we should be doing.  Should we be looking at levels of support as spots to buy or should we be looking at levels of resistance as levels to sell.  If you can be detached from loving your "beloved" stock and just see the market for what it is - long term I believe you do better.  It's not about "timing the market" except in the sense that every buy or sell decision is trying to "time the market." Because why would you sell something today if you thought it would be worth more tomorrow and why would you buy something today if you thought it would be worth less tomorrow.

So in biggest market terms what is PRICE PERFORMANCE of $SPY of the past 1-3-6-12 months?  And from that what should be be looking at doing (really should have been doing all along)

• 1 month performance=  -8%
  
• 3 month performance= -13.6%
  
• 6 month performance= -6.6%
  
• 1 year performance = -5.1%
  

The Price Performance is telling you what the market is; what you should have been doing over the past few months; what you should be doing now; and what you should do in the future.

If the market is indeed bearish - what might the natural ebbs and flows of that trend be?  How long might it last? How might one best prepare now and during tradeable bounces?  And what to do if/when Price is 100% wrong and the down trend is fleeting like 7/15-2/16?  These (I think) are important questions to consider.

 

[pecorino]

I keep hearing that 2019 will be volatile but that fundamentals are strong so it could be an up year, while the wheels could come off in 2020. This AAPL news is a harbinger of a down year in 2019 (IMO) with a full blown recession coming 2020. I’m ready to sell what I still have in equities, pony up for long term puts on SPY, and get the heck out. Like now (or on the next pop). Happy to hear counterpoints, but I think I’m past the point of no return. I’ve had enough of this correction already.

 

[stbugs]

Apple reached too far. I’m not paying 1100 for another phone that does the same thing the one I have now does. I check twitter, stocks, some websites and apps. I can’t just keep this phone for 5 years and do that. All their upgrades is just nerd #### I don’t care about. 

Exactly my point. Subsidies helped but the compelling argument to go from my 8 plus to new isn’t there anymore. Subsidy or BOGO, I saw huge differences when I went for 3GS to 4 to 5 to 6 plus. 6 plus to 8 plus was nice, but more because I had kids to hand down a phone.  I have 0 desire to move up.

 

[ericttspikes]

Based on current valuations, either AAPL is a buy or MSFT is a juicy short.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Exactly my point. Subsidies helped but the compelling argument to go from my 8 plus to new isn’t there anymore. Subsidy or BOGO, I saw huge differences when I went for 3GS to 4 to 5 to 6 plus. 6 plus to 8 plus was nice, but more because I had kids to hand down a phone.  I have 0 desire to move up.

Where are you getting these BOGO? Do you have to switch carriers? Do you have to be on one of those Next payment plans? 

I'm a very thrifty consumer, sadly, my most painful purchase in the last year was an iPhone X.

I had a 6 that I bought right when it came out, I broke it about 2 days before my Apple Care expired and hoped I could ride it for another 3 years. 

In late May, the phone stopped working, the microphone to be specific. I decided to keep some small bluetooth headphones in my pockets at all times, and since using the phone wasn't big for me, it was no big deal as everything else functioned perfectly. 

In late June, I was going away with my family for a week, the day before we were scheduled to leave the bluetooth stops working. So I was a month in with no working phone, now I couldn't connect to a bluetooth. I decide to head to Apple, on my way, my reception breaks down too  

I get in there and ask if they can fix it

Anyways, an unlocked 256gb iPhone X, with Apple Care, and I walked out paying the absolute maximum a human being could for an iPhone. I really didn't have much of a choice, it was either that or being phone-less for a week on vacation, which wasn't really an option, unless I felt like lugging around a Macbook. 

 

[fantasycurse42]

Based on current valuations, either AAPL is a buy or MSFT is a juicy short.

Very different companies, although MSFT is one of the most crowded hedge fund trades right now, so who knows. 

 

[fantasycurse42]

AAPL down just a touch under 40% in the last 3 months 

Perfect example of why you don't buy something bc Buffet bought it or some other hedge fund bought something. Sadly, nobody will learn this lesson. That guy will hold forever and be fine, the people who chased him are losing their shirts. 

 

[Bob Sacamano]

AAPL down just a touch under 40% in the last 3 months 

Perfect example of why you don't buy something bc Buffet bought it or some other hedge fund bought something. Sadly, nobody will learn this lesson. That guy will hold forever and be fine, the people who chased him are losing their shirts. 

Nothing keeping them from holding forever.

 

[pecorino]

Nothing keeping them from holding forever.

Ya, I’m a believer in Warren and a holder of AAPL shares in my retirement account. I’m not selling but I would have preferred to buy at these levels, of course.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Ya, I’m a believer in Warren and a holder of AAPL shares in my retirement account. I’m not selling but I would have preferred to buy at these levels, of course.

He's obviously one of the best investors, but my point was, as soon as a headline breaks "XYZ bought XYZ" the herd comes running in, such irresponsible behavior. 

 

[Bob Sacamano]

He's obviously one of the best investors, but my point was, as soon as a headline breaks "XYZ bought XYZ" the herd comes running in, such irresponsible behavior. 

Right.  Should just be buying BRKA.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Right.  Should just be buying BRKA.

Added 1,000 shares of it on the fall today myself.

I’ll add another 2,000 if it keeps dropping.

 

[stbugs]

Where are you getting these BOGO? Do you have to switch carriers? Do you have to be on one of those Next payment plans? 

I'm a very thrifty consumer, sadly, my most painful purchase in the last year was an iPhone X.

I had a 6 that I bought right when it came out, I broke it about 2 days before my Apple Care expired and hoped I could ride it for another 3 years. 

In late May, the phone stopped working, the microphone to be specific. I decided to keep some small bluetooth headphones in my pockets at all times, and since using the phone wasn't big for me, it was no big deal as everything else functioned perfectly. 

In late June, I was going away with my family for a week, the day before we were scheduled to leave the bluetooth stops working. So I was a month in with no working phone, now I couldn't connect to a bluetooth. I decide to head to Apple, on my way, my reception breaks down too  

I get in there and ask if they can fix it

Anyways, an unlocked 256gb iPhone X, with Apple Care, and I walked out paying the absolute maximum a human being could for an iPhone. I really didn't have much of a choice, it was either that or being phone-less for a week on vacation, which wasn't really an option, unless I felt like lugging around a Macbook. 

AT&T had it. I was getting a new line as I was adding my youngest in a few months, so I used that to get one new phone free (an 8). It’s been a year I think, right before last Christmas. I haven’t been looking so no idea what’s around now. 

 

[fantasycurse42]

NFP today has to be considered neutral by the market. 

On one hand, should alleviate the recession fears, but on the other, Powell has to be holding his middle finger up saying I told you so. Can’t imagine that data alters his course one bit.

 

[fantasycurse42]

No change in tone from Powell, still sounds Hawkish. 

Guy is such a hawk.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Wait a minute, sounds like he is blinking a little. 

 

[fantasycurse42]

Yup, blinked. 

Blast off. 

 

[fantasycurse42]

I think Powell is an amazing Fed Chair. He has the hardest job any of them have had, trying to normalize a mess he inherited with rates running on nothing forever and a disgusting balance sheet. 

He said what he had to today to give the market a boost, and continue what he wants to do, normalize. 

Think his comments today give us a powerful rally. This is a rally I intend on selling when the S&P gets to 2600. 

Market today proved what I already knew, we can't handle normal rates or normal liquidity, but this guy will do his best to try and get us back to normal. 

 

[humpback]

He isn't hawkish, he isn't dovish, he's perfectly reasonable and will remain flexible based on the data. Unfortunately for the market, that's a big negative compared to most of the last decade.

 

[stbugs]

Interesting. There are two small batches I want to sell. SMH for not buying more AMZN at 1320ish. Was just a little scared since we already have a lot that we can’t sell. I don’t see a  high past where I sold off most before (high 1700s) any time soon. I think if it gets to mid 1600s, I jump out and enjoy any further gain on a bigger share. If SQ gets over 60, I’ll dump that, obviously not selling until I see it plateau a bit. I’ll definitely ride out a couple days to see if the rally goes for a little. 

 

[fantasycurse42]

Interesting. There are two small batches I want to sell. SMH for not buying more AMZN at 1320ish. Was just a little scared since we already have a lot that we can’t sell. I don’t see a  high past where I sold off most before (high 1700s) any time soon. I think if it gets to mid 1600s, I jump out and enjoy any further gain on a bigger share. If SQ gets over 60, I’ll dump that, obviously not selling until I see it plateau a bit. I’ll definitely ride out a couple days to see if the rally goes for a little. 

I think he gave the market the ammunition to rally a little. Get the sense that was his goal, which would make his job of normalizing easier. 

 

[stbugs]

I think he gave the market the ammunition to rally a little. Get the sense that was his goal, which would make his job of normalizing easier. 

Yep. I think we may see a normal pull back on Monday if this stays a big day and then maybe a little run for a bit. I’ll be watching as I do not think we are having a multi year rally here just a little bit of rally.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Where is everyone? We're rich again! 

 

[Don't Noonan]

. Until Mondays 600 point decline!

What a rollercoaster

 

[Sand]

. Until Mondays 600 point decline!

What a rollercoaster

Wake me when things get rowdy.

BTW, that employment report was about the best report I've read. Off the charts.  This economy is a freaking jet engine.

 

[Iceman03]

First day of the recovery, or, last day to jump ship?

Option 3) Bear market continues and so does volatile swings in both directions?

 

[Don't Noonan]

First day of the recovery, or, last day to jump ship?

Expect continued volatility until trade war and Fed policy clarity.  If you are long term investor things look pretty good.

 

[culdeus]

First day of the recovery, or, last day to jump ship?

yes

 

[fantasycurse42]

First day of the recovery, or, last day to jump ship?

You've prob got time to jump ship, at least another 3-5%. 

I'd think the cycle top is in though. 

 

[fantasycurse42]

And I love these big banks; https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/04/its-time-to-buy-bank-of-america-market-gauge-flashes-first-buy-signal-since-brexit.html

Okay, we can put this out now, being that we've got our positions marked and a 4% cushion

 

[Don't Noonan]

And I love these big banks; https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/04/its-time-to-buy-bank-of-america-market-gauge-flashes-first-buy-signal-since-brexit.html

Okay, we can put this out now, being that we've got our positions marked and a 4% cushion

It is actually a pretty interesting contrarian indicator partly based on fund flows.  Good track record too.

 

[Buckna]

It is actually a pretty interesting contrarian indicator partly based on fund flows.  Good track record too.

Not sure I trust anything that's track record is based on backtesting 11 out of the last 17 years. Their own figure of their model that they provide in the article totally breaks down during the last bear market in the time period from '08 to mid '09.

 

[Sand]

And I love these big banks; https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/04/its-time-to-buy-bank-of-america-market-gauge-flashes-first-buy-signal-since-brexit.html

Okay, we can put this out now, being that we've got our positions marked and a 4% cushion

All aboard!  

Seriously, though, I have done nothing but TLH and buy a couple items (NVDA, BX) since we dove down.  I don't see the economy tanking here or in the near future.

This note also reminds me, though, that I'll never own big banks.  Or much of anything in the financial sector.  If you look at the long term (20 years) the long term CAGR of the financial sector is 2.5 freakin' percent.  That's it.  Even the technology sector with 2 massive crashes is at 5.5%.  That sector rewards itself first and stockholders are 8th in line at the trough.  Easily the worst performing sector over the last couple decades and I don't see it changing.

 

[Don't Noonan]

Not sure I trust anything that's track record is based on backtesting 11 out of the last 17 years. Their own figure of their model that they provide in the article totally breaks down during the last bear market in the time period from '08 to mid '09.

Understood.  I think the main premise behind it is when sentiment is negative that traditionally is the best time to invest.  It is just an interesting report that I look at weekly.  I certainly wouldn't blindly follow the recommendations based on that barrometer.  

 

[The Ref]

A quote I read over ten years ago that kind of scares me a little bit because I think it rings true.

“in a bull market you take the stairs up and the elevator down.  In a bear market you take the elevator up and the stairs down.”

 

[Sand]

So, just looking this morning - on track to be up 129% this year.