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GoBirds said:
March 1 the deadline before tariffs increase? Been quite a run up before this "selloff". Was hoping to find some value start of year but not seeing it. 
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Yes, as of now tariffs are due to increase on March 1, but it seems likely they'll come up with some sort of extension again when we get there.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
My thesis for months is they're going to have to cut their dividend (maybe not for 12-24 months, but I think it will be unfolding at some point in the not too distant future). It's a bold call since they've raised for 34 straight years, but it is hard to justify acquisitions when you're losing subscribers (or not gaining much) across all major lines of business hand over fist. 

T Mobile & VZ added over 1mm wireless subs each, T added 134k. They lost 400k DTV subs (worse than 350k anticipated), and they lost 267k DTV Now subs, catastrophically bad!

How many people said something similar on the fall of GE to what you're saying now? And their dividend right now as of close today is a hair under 7%, FWIW. 
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Their CEO has an interview on CNBC today. Obviously things could go bad but he had good things to say when specifically asked about the dividend I thought. https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/02/08/att-randall-stephenson-pebble-beach-pro-am-golf-tournament-earnings-q4.html

 
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Is it possible we're in the buy rumor phase? Some ####ty watered down trade deal could be forthcoming. I suspect Trump is ready to cave and bow to the market Gods (even though his base could care less about the DJIA, guy is an imbecile) - at least that is what the market is saying. 

Anyways, if they're buying the rumor, will the news get sold? VIX is currently around 15, around 12, I think the R/R on a short is solid and I'll prob take a ST position. 

 
humpback said:
That retail sales report was scary bad.
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The market took the Feds dovish pivot and ran with it. Certainly some sort of disconnect from reality. 

My only issue is I don't see the breaking point or what tips the economy. I think debt is a huge issue, but not sure how it plays out or timing, so I can't say that will do it. 10 year is 2.7%, I doubt that will do it, that's nothing, or at least it should be considered nothing. Craziest part about the 10 year to me is that it hasn't budged at all since Jan 1, with the market roaring. One of these two markets is wildly incorrect. 

I shifted a small amount of money into VFMXX a few weeks ago, thinking about making another small shift today/tomorrow. Every risk the market had priced in last quarter has already been priced out.

 
humpback said:
That retail sales report was scary bad.
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And the market appears to be giving that report the one finger salute.  Back to even.

Sold some REITs yesterday and tried to grab a couple MLPs which are looking good.  Fidelity won't let me buy until the sale has cleared.  It would let me buy regular stocks, but not an MLP.  Weird.  And, of course, the two that I want have exploded higher today.

On a "hey I'm an awesome trader by complete luck" note, I sold some KO for my kid a few days ago.   :bowtie:

 
Sand said:
And the market appears to be giving that report the one finger salute.  Back to even.

Sold some REITs yesterday and tried to grab a couple MLPs which are looking good.  Fidelity won't let me buy until the sale has cleared.  It would let me buy regular stocks, but not an MLP.  Weird.  And, of course, the two that I want have exploded higher today.

On a "hey I'm an awesome trader by complete luck" note, I sold some KO for my kid a few days ago.   :bowtie:
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Terrible numbers means the Fed's next move may be to loosen instead of tighten, although I don't see how that's a good thing longer term.

 
humpback said:
Terrible numbers means the Fed's next move may be to loosen instead of tighten, although I don't see how that's a good thing longer term.
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Well, one thing to remember if you're on recession watch is that the last few recessions occurred right after the first rate drop.  So, yeah, my ears will definitely perk up on that one.

 
Sand said:
Well, one thing to remember if you're on recession watch is that the last few recessions occurred right after the first rate drop.  So, yeah, my ears will definitely perk up on that one.
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Where did the markets go on average when that happened?

 
Current FFR is 2.25 - 2.5%... That isn't restrictive, and if a recession is coming, printing money is really their only out. 

Hence, buy gold if you think they'll be cutting, imo. I own some IAU. 

 
stbugs said:
Gotcha, but is it consistent, meaning every recent recession occurred around a rate drop?
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By my memory the last 3 recessions occurred after the first rate drop that was preceded by a set of rate increases (as we have now).  The idea is that the rate drop signals that the economy is rolling over and the Fed is trying to catch it.  If i find the article I'll post it.

 
Sand said:
By my memory the last 3 recessions occurred after the first rate drop that was preceded by a set of rate increases (as we have now).  The idea is that the rate drop signals that the economy is rolling over and the Fed is trying to catch it.  If i find the article I'll post it.
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Awesome. I’m sitting on a lot of cash right now. Sort of waiting for the other shoe to drop to jump back in with those accounts. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I shifted a small amount of money into VFMXX a few weeks ago, thinking about making another small shift today/tomorrow. Every risk the market had priced in last quarter has already been priced out.
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Just followed through and shifted a little more over.

Who knows what the 10 year was on Jan 1? Today it is 2.66%, take a guess...

2.69%

You'd think a huge rally like we have had and there would be a sell off in safer assets. Nonetheless, glad I sat tight in December. 

 
Today is a perfect example of my post above. 

Asking seriously, with the DJIA up about 350 points today, why has A) 10 year not moved B) the yield curve actually flattened a little C) gold risen, again?

I view gold as a hedge against inflation (which can be argued in circles) and an asset when preparing for a risk off sentiment. If you listen to all of the talking heads, inflation isn't an issue, and risk is clearly on, so why has gold continued to rise? 

All of these things should not correlate - am I wrong? This has all been leaving me wildly confused.  

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Today is a perfect example of my post above. 

Asking seriously, with the DJIA up about 350 points today, why has A) 10 year not moved B) the yield curve actually flattened a little C) gold risen, again?

I view gold as a hedge against inflation (which can be argued in circles) and an asset when preparing for a risk off sentiment. If you listen to all of the talking heads, inflation isn't an issue, and risk is clearly on, so why has gold continued to rise? 

All of these things should not correlate - am I wrong? This has all been leaving me wildly confused.  
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Gold can be a crappy marker since it is also a commodity for use in electronics, and all sorts of other industrial processes.  

 
culdeus said:
Gold can be a crappy marker since it is also a commodity for use in electronics, and all sorts of other industrial processes.  
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What about the 10 year though? I can't connect the dots. Market is up 3500 points this year, 10 year is flat - does the bond market simply not believe in this rally? 

 
I'm shocked nobody is discussing this, no articles being written, nothing... The 10 year tumbled from 3.25% in November to a little over 2.5% and has only recovered 15 or so basis points since. It's a very very odd correlation. 

You'd think it would be sold, especially with lousy yields under 3%, but it hasn't budged - what gives? 

ETA: And it def is not a supply issue - the deficits we're running, tons of notes coming to the market. 

 
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Added to my stakes in EPD and MMP the other day. These MLPs have been neglected the last few years to the point they are pretty compelling.  Considering this and the fact that I'd be happy with the 6.5% they shed every year with no cap gains (thinking of it as a bond) and it was a pretty easy decision to put some more money into them.  Risk reward is very high.

 
St. Louis Bob said:
 I don't follow it at all but noticed the price a few months back and thought "HFS, I thought they went out of business 20 years ago".  Yikes on that cut they got yesterday.
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Yep, they exceeded the earnings for the 4th quarter but the CEO said that they are not partnering with USPS in 2019 as they want to do business with other carriers and not be solely tied with USPS.  That statement created a freefall of the stock.  Lost over 50% last night.  

I don't own any STMP but in the long run this might be a good opportunity to put it on a watch list.  Over-reaction going on now but when earnings forecasts for next year are cut in half, investors tend to react quickly.  Black Thursday night/Friday for sure.  

 
St. Louis Bob said:
 I don't follow it at all but noticed the price a few months back and thought "HFS, I thought they went out of business 20 years ago".  Yikes on that cut they got yesterday.
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Lol. I had to look up the stock ticker because I was wondering if it was them. I never thought they were still around either. Heck, can’t believe the company was worth $3billion yesterday. 

 
I bought 2k shares of NIO at $8.80. 

China is going to dominate EV one day, this will be their leading luxury brand in doing so. 

I'm going to hold this one forever. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I bought 2k shares of NIO at $8.80. 

China is going to dominate EV one day, this will be their leading luxury brand in doing so. 

I'm going to hold this one forever. 
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Looks interesting.  I went ahead and bought a 10% stake in the company.  :FBGcouchchange:

In other news the oil market is puking on DJT's latest comments, but the major integrateds are up.  Says something about how much more efficient these big boys are per barrel these days.

 
I wanted a stocks guys opinion on Britain crashing out of the EU. I heard today that it could "gridlock their economy and send shockwaves through the global markets."

Curious what you guys think the resulting impact could be. I remember Greece throwing water on the market for some time. Could we see a bear market lit off by this thing? 

 
crnerblitz said:
I wanted a stocks guys opinion on Britain crashing out of the EU. I heard today that it could "gridlock their economy and send shockwaves through the global markets."

Curious what you guys think the resulting impact could be. I remember Greece throwing water on the market for some time. Could we see a bear market lit off by this thing? 
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Northern Ireland probably takes it in the shorts the most.  Maybe they can get Mexico to pay for the wall they will need to put up too.

 
Maybe I'm crazy, but I still don't think Brexit is going to happen. The British don't want to give the impression that their elections don't mean anything, but I think it's clear the Russians had something to do with it, which gives them an out. There's been a lot of face-saving and posturing, but I believe when the time comes, the British are not going to commit ritual economic suicide.

 
Sand said:
Added to my stakes in EPD and MMP the other day. These MLPs have been neglected the last few years to the point they are pretty compelling.  Considering this and the fact that I'd be happy with the 6.5% they shed every year with no cap gains (thinking of it as a bond) and it was a pretty easy decision to put some more money into them.  Risk reward is very high.
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Either of these companies going to be involved with getting the new crude oil out of Texas or would it be COP or PPA?  curious what you know & think on this.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I bought 2k shares of NIO at $8.80. 

China is going to dominate EV one day, this will be their leading luxury brand in doing so. 

I'm going to hold this one forever. 
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I've only got 300, but got in high 6's. Soooo tempted to bail, but it's on a monstrous run here. Have a bad feeling it's a pump into lockup expiry on March 5. Up enough that I'll probably hold into earnings and add if it gets beaten down. Another thing to consider is that there literally is 1bn shares outstanding, so not sure how high this really can go short or long term; thinking 15 short term and maybe 50 in 5-10 years?

 
ericttspikes said:
I've only got 300, but got in high 6's. Soooo tempted to bail, but it's on a monstrous run here. Have a bad feeling it's a pump into lockup expiry on March 5. Up enough that I'll probably hold into earnings and add if it gets beaten down. Another thing to consider is that there literally is 1bn shares outstanding, so not sure how high this really can go short or long term; thinking 15 short term and maybe 50 in 5-10 years?
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This is a long long long term play for me, lockup periods, earnings, etc will just be noise. I would've gone heavier, but with 2k shares here, 20% swings aren't going to garner much attention from me, this is set it and forget it and hope. This goes into my highly speculative bucket where I'm swinging for the fences. 

Yes, $50 a share would equal $50B in market cap. I hate using addressable market, bc it really can be applied to almost any company about anything, but I feel it actually applies here. EV is early in China, the government is fully backing it, & my gut says this a company the Chinese government wants to succeed. 

Would I like to be on the ground floor of a company that could lead China in the luxury EV market? #### yea. This can be $50 in 10 years or it could be $0, I honestly don't think there is much middle ground between though. 

Also, I get the sense as Elon becomes more and more unhinged over the years, Tesla investors will be jumping ship to NIO, but who knows. 

Kind of interested in BYD too, but they only sell pink sheets. 

 
irishidiot said:
Either of these companies going to be involved with getting the new crude oil out of Texas or would it be COP or PPA?  curious what you know & think on this.
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EPD has crude and NG pipelines going into west Texas.  MMP is more into refined product pipelines, so I don't think they have quite the exposure there.

That said I've held both of these since 2008 or so and had much higher total returns with MMP.  When I bought more I split the baby and bought equal amount of both.  EPD has a lot of investments coming on line in the next few years that should be quite accretive.  And, as noted, I'm perfectly happy holding these for life and collecting 6.5% on cost.

 
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I was going to post this in the Options thread but the underlying point is the possibility of a recession in the next year or two so it fits in this thread too. Saw data on a website which shows unusual options activity. The top volume ETF option trades today indicate enormous volume going into long term puts on the SPY. The top ten in volume are for either about one year or two years out, all puts, and with a total of about ten million contracts (which is a lot) at a cost of about $100 to upwards of $700 for each contract. Billions being bet against the S&P in the upcoming year just today. Granted there is some significant money being thrown into calls as well, but those are mostly short term and much smaller volume. Seems like a good time to jump on board to bet against the markets (I think they are overbought right now) for the upcoming year. I'll seriously look at dumping some money into SPY puts tomorrow based on this massive options action today.

 
pecorino said:
I was going to post this in the Options thread but the underlying point is the possibility of a recession in the next year or two so it fits in this thread too. Saw data on a website which shows unusual options activity. The top volume ETF option trades today indicate enormous volume going into long term puts on the SPY. The top ten in volume are for either about one year or two years out, all puts, and with a total of about ten million contracts (which is a lot) at a cost of about $100 to upwards of $700 for each contract. Billions being bet against the S&P in the upcoming year just today. Granted there is some significant money being thrown into calls as well, but those are mostly short term and much smaller volume. Seems like a good time to jump on board to bet against the markets (I think they are overbought right now) for the upcoming year. I'll seriously look at dumping some money into SPY puts tomorrow based on this massive options action today.
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Any chance you could provide a link to that info?  Thanks

 
pecorino said:
I was going to post this in the Options thread but the underlying point is the possibility of a recession in the next year or two so it fits in this thread too. Saw data on a website which shows unusual options activity. The top volume ETF option trades today indicate enormous volume going into long term puts on the SPY. The top ten in volume are for either about one year or two years out, all puts, and with a total of about ten million contracts (which is a lot) at a cost of about $100 to upwards of $700 for each contract. Billions being bet against the S&P in the upcoming year just today. Granted there is some significant money being thrown into calls as well, but those are mostly short term and much smaller volume. Seems like a good time to jump on board to bet against the markets (I think they are overbought right now) for the upcoming year. I'll seriously look at dumping some money into SPY puts tomorrow based on this massive options action today.
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siffoin said:
Any chance you could provide a link to that info?  Thanks
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It was on This Page for yesterday's data. I also saw it after Pecorino pointed this out. Oddly enough, I do not see SPY in today's data.

 
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