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Stock Thread (25 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
I didn’t parse the numbers that carefully and I really just saw the top ten volume plays which were all puts (10 million contracts right there). I wouldn’t have estimated 97% as puts, that is a very high number but I don’t doubt it.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Have we figured out if the dated put volume was really that crazy? :interested:
Also, I'm considering a pair trade, up in the air about it, but considering long SHAK short CMG
Also, I'm considering a pair trade, up in the air about it, but considering long SHAK short CMG
culdeus
Footballguy
Well this isn't good.
Or is it just another reason to get some TVIX positions opened up again?
-OZ-
Footballguy
:(
The only real problem with getting ready to pay cash for a car is now my "fun money" went from 5 digits to 3.
so the fun for today was buying a whole 3 shares of Tesla at $283.33. would buy more.
instead I can buy a 2018 Camry XSE. Could go for a 17 Accord ex-l and have a few more thousand to play with....
The only real problem with getting ready to pay cash for a car is now my "fun money" went from 5 digits to 3.
so the fun for today was buying a whole 3 shares of Tesla at $283.33. would buy more.
instead I can buy a 2018 Camry XSE. Could go for a 17 Accord ex-l and have a few more thousand to play with....
Sold 18 shares at 1703. Wanted to get some out above 1700. If it keeps going up, sweet but had to cash some out.
ETA: It “crashed” a bit at the end of the day so an extra $200 in my pocket. Woot!
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Bossman
Footballguy
Nice day for both ... I'm up about $800 (8%) since 2/28 purchase.
Seems very volatile though.
Probably should have bought more ... but I've no idea what I'm doing.
So glad I sold. It wasn’t a huge chunk but I’m just two days it’s down to 1632. I would have lost an extra $1200. Just glad I sold all I had available to sell when it poked its head over 1700.
Capella
Footballguy
Bought a bunch at......1632 the other day so I guess I can’t complain too much right now.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Oops, just looked at NIO 
I'm down like $3,500... I was up like $5k on Monday, I'm just going to stop looking - didn't even realize they reported earnings this week (and they were ugly!).
I'm down like $3,500... I was up like $5k on Monday, I'm just going to stop looking - didn't even realize they reported earnings this week (and they were ugly!).
Bought a bunch of NIO calls today. Now I am rooting along right beside you. What a two-day beating.Oops, just looked at NIO
I'm down like $3,500... I was up like $5k on Monday, I'm just going to stop looking - didn't even realize they reported earnings this week (and they were ugly!).
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
What's the next catalyst for a move higher? The Fed drops back to 0? Injects more stimulus?
Organic growth is a thing of the past, right? When the market sheds 20% on the fear of an FFR at 3-3.5% gotta think so.
https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-chart
Here is a look at the FFR, zoom in from 1980 until now. Every cycle has come down and down and down. If they haven't made their final hike of this cycle, they're close. With the amount of debt and leverage in the system, I guess anything over 2.5% is chaos - long term prospects can't be that good if that is case.
Would love someone to argue the other side of that, just curious what the talking points are? I'd assume employment numbers would be the lead?
Organic growth is a thing of the past, right? When the market sheds 20% on the fear of an FFR at 3-3.5% gotta think so.
https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-chart
Here is a look at the FFR, zoom in from 1980 until now. Every cycle has come down and down and down. If they haven't made their final hike of this cycle, they're close. With the amount of debt and leverage in the system, I guess anything over 2.5% is chaos - long term prospects can't be that good if that is case.
Would love someone to argue the other side of that, just curious what the talking points are? I'd assume employment numbers would be the lead?
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
They delivered 1800 cars in Jan and 800 in Feb - feels like I was hoodwinked
But I committed and I'm sticking with it.
The Big Guy
Fear the Blitz
You also bought immediately after a 20/20 fluff piece on them, giving a uptick in pricing too. Double whammy.They delivered 1800 cars in Jan and 800 in Feb - feels like I was hoodwinked
But I committed and I'm sticking with it.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I bought before the real pump though in the $8's - looks like it topped out around $10.65.
Think it is China's best interests to have this brand succeed. I'll hold forever, this a discretionary funds purchase. $0 or $50.
You can complain a little now. I don’t really care until May know but it seems like the market has turned a little negative. I only sold because as you noticed it hadn’t been able to get much above 1700 and I took the chance when it climbed a little above. Down 5% since I sold so it’s nice to still have that extra $1500.
Capella
Footballguy
proteus126
Footballguy
The PE10 is going to drop like a rock this year. Slowly valuation-based sentiment will turn more favorable. Not that it solely drives prices.
Yep, I kind of figured it had and I’m really glad I sold all our vested shares of AMZN above 1700. I had a feeling that was a near term high. I’m sitting ready to jump in again. I should have jumped in back at the end of the year but I was legitimately worried it would go lower.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
It's still around 30 right now, historically that still indicates abysmal 10 year returns. Granted, it has come down some from last year, but buying in now based on Shiller methods isn't a very wise idea. If you're looking for long term investments, you want to get in at 20 or lower.
Regardless of sentiment, I ask the same question over and over in here and have never received a single response - what is the catalyst for new highs? Fed injecting more money into the system? Not sure what impact going from 2% to 0% will really have, I suspect it would be like the tax cuts, a sugar high that would wane quickly.
cosjobs
Footballguy
I made an offer at 5% over list for a house and lost the bid.
I want to make another offer on a house today in the red hot Round Rock/Austin market.
With the market down for a week and home prices rising sharply, should I risk waiting?
The market in the area I've been looking at has close proximity to Dell, Samsung and apple, which have propelled the growth lately with more scheduled and funded to come.
I want to make another offer on a house today in the red hot Round Rock/Austin market.
With the market down for a week and home prices rising sharply, should I risk waiting?
The market in the area I've been looking at has close proximity to Dell, Samsung and apple, which have propelled the growth lately with more scheduled and funded to come.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/kudlow-brushing-aside-concerns-over-fluky-jobs-report-sees-3-growth-rate-this-year-2019-03-08
The Atlanta Fed and NY Fed are between .3% & .9% growth in the 1st quarter. I really hate Kudlow, guy is such a slimy dbag.
How exactly are we going to get to 3% this year? We couldn't do it last year on tax cuts, does he really think anyone believes his bull#### anymore?
I guess we're going to average 3.7% growth in Q2-Q4
The Atlanta Fed and NY Fed are between .3% & .9% growth in the 1st quarter. I really hate Kudlow, guy is such a slimy dbag.
How exactly are we going to get to 3% this year? We couldn't do it last year on tax cuts, does he really think anyone believes his bull#### anymore?
I guess we're going to average 3.7% growth in Q2-Q4
Sand
Footballguy
Having some profit taking this week isn't terribly surprising. I have been expecting it. Everything doesn't suck, though the last employment report didn't help (though heavily affected by snowstorms and the shutdown).
Always thought PE10 should be and EMA and not an SMA. When those awful 2009 numbers roll off the PE10 should indeed drop a good bit. P/E of the market in 2009 was like 70.
I'm talking about the narrative- in Q4 everything was doom and gloom, then for the first two months of this year everything was clear sailing, now we're back to doom and gloom.
Sand
Footballguy
I concur on the narrative. The economy is still humming, so I'm pretty much plugging my ears and hodling.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Market is already priced for the economy to keep humming along, so what is the catalyst for new highs?Sand said:
Sand
Footballguy
proteus126
Footballguy
There is no catalyst for new highs. But another year passing, trading sideways, and the picture clears considerably. The market will creep higher eventually. You trying to hit home runs?fantasycurse42 said:
Sand
Footballguy
No economy is perfect. But, yes, absolutely humming at the moment.
Record employment, low inflation, superb rail traffic, wages the strongest in at least a decade, etc.
(Also, I'm not reading too much into that jobs report due to the shutdown and a couple difficult winter storms. We'll see how it holds up next month.)
Bossman
Footballguy
I would guess that retail stores are closing because more and more people are shopping on-line.
This is the part where I recommend amzn as a quality investment.
Bossman
Footballguy
I told myself that I wouldn't do it .... but tvix is as low as it's been in several months.
Very tempted to jump back in.
Bossman
Footballguy
ACB up another 13% today. Not sure what I did to deserve that.
... but CRON is back down to what I paid for it.
I'm sure there are reasons ... but I don't care to ask.
kevzilla
Footballguy
They are bringing in Nelson Peltz as a "strategic consultant." Paying him with options on 20 million shares, which would make him the second-largest shareholder if he exercised them. Probably good news for shareholders either way, as the dude has been crapping money for half a century.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
Tempted to dip toes into TVIX, then found this online:
TVIX—destroyer of wealth
According to ETF.com’s ETF Fund Flows tool, TVIX’s net inflows have been around $2.8 billion since its inception in 2010. It’s currently worth $450 million, so VelocityShares has facilitated the destruction of over one and a half billion dollars of customer money—so far. I’m confident this overall destruction will continue.
TVIX—destroyer of wealth
According to ETF.com’s ETF Fund Flows tool, TVIX’s net inflows have been around $2.8 billion since its inception in 2010. It’s currently worth $450 million, so VelocityShares has facilitated the destruction of over one and a half billion dollars of customer money—so far. I’m confident this overall destruction will continue.
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Is this new math? $2.8 billion - $450 million = $2.35 billion lost. Is $2.35 billion close enough to call it "over" $1.5 billion?Tempted to dip toes into TVIX, then found this online:
TVIX—destroyer of wealth
According to ETF.com’s ETF Fund Flows tool, TVIX’s net inflows have been around $2.8 billion since its inception in 2010. It’s currently worth $450 million, so VelocityShares has facilitated the destruction of over one and a half billion dollars of customer money—so far. I’m confident this overall destruction will continue.
Mario Kart
Footballguy
AAPL on the move all week. I missed out on the 152ish to 162ish jump earlier in the year but it's now hovering around 183. I'm just riding the wave but it is nice to ride it.
Bossman
Footballguy
Ouch. Sorry.
Now I remember why I stopped trading this stuff.
It could run down one day ... then down the next. Then it goes down again after that.
Then, after months of futility, it comes up enough to get me to take a minuscule profit ... and it promptly rips up 300%
TVIX gets me so excited that it gives my middle finger an erection.
Bossman
Footballguy
lol .... ACB, what a run!
up 26% in 2 weeks.
For some reason I'm not even tempted to lock in the $1400 profit that I'm sitting on.
Am I wrong for letting this play out?
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