Stock Thread (32 Viewers)

[guru_007]

Looks like LYFT IPO is set to hit early April beating UBER to the punch.

And I heard this weekend, UBER is looking for a valuation of about 120 Billion (would be about 10x what LYFT is at).

UBER will be more valuable than the likes of Nvidia, Costco and MMM with this set.  Last I heard, UBER is still losing money.  Voodoo accounting at work here, imho.

 

[Sand]

For Bonds is it worth getting cute with a specific Vanguard Bond fund or stick with the large BND total bond market fund?

I try to tailor duration with general bond funds, for the most part - mostly split by investment between TLT and GVI.  So I don't dip too far into specialization (though I'll play with preferreds and muni CEFs a bit), but I do have some positive control on duration.

 

[Bossman]

I would guess that retail stores are closing because more and more people are shopping on-line.

This is the part where I recommend amzn as a quality investment.

almost like I know what I'm doing.

amzn up $70 since this recommendation a week ago.

I'm a regular Nostradumbass.

 

[culdeus]

I think Uber thinks there's a lot of interest in their IPO.

I think a bunch of that interest is people looking to short it, no matter where it opens. I think it could rival Tesla for most-shorted stock.

What metric are you using for stock shorts?  Tesla doesn't rank high on really any of the ones I see. 

 

[Penguin]

Probably going to short Theranos after the HBO doc

 

[Bossman]

What metric are you using for stock shorts?  Tesla doesn't rank high on really any of the ones I see. 

What he probably meant to say was that Tesla "should be" one of the most shorted stocks.

Long on cannabis. Did you hear they're expecting "cannabis beverages" to be on the shelf in Canada within the next year?

So you can walk into a store and buy a cannabis energy drink ... like buying a RedBull.

Now vending machines? cannabis vending machine

With legalization just now happening in many states, just a matter of time before marijuana reaches the popularity of alcohol. 

Not exactly ground floor now, but still early enough to make a nice profit imo.

BUT I'M NEW TO THIS ... so proceed with caution. I've not much of an idea what I'm doing.

 

[pecorino]

Not exactly ground floor now, but still early enough to make a nice profit imo.

BUT I'M NEW TO THIS ... so proceed with caution. I've not much of an idea what I'm doing.

I’m in three cannabis plays right now. The closest to ground floor is CBWTF. It’s a flyer but that’s what you do when you’re trying to find the next big thing. Then in ACB—got on last week after they announced Peltz joining the team. That’s a buy and hold for me. Auroura is better established than Auxly (CBWTF). Finally, I bought a short term call on NLSN, that’s the Neilsen ratings which are branching out into data aggregation in, you guessed it, cannabis. Not sure how that’s going to work, but I’m hoping for a short term spike in the stock. And I agree that I don’t know what I’m doing—very speculative but there is info out there so you can make an informed decision.

 

[culdeus]

Vix at 13.  Aren't we supposed to go pants off at 10?

 

[ComfortablyNumb]

Amazon fighting the 1700 wall again 

Let's talk Amazon. It has certainly smashed through that 1700 wall since Friday and is now trading around 1783!  I've bought some over the past few months at an average cost of 1618 (sure wish I'd had more cash available early Jan when I got some at 1400!)  I'd been buying hoping for a rebound to the 2000 range, but 1781 is a tempting sell.  My investment strategy is fairly aggressive - maximizing growth. I have no idea where I'd invest the $ if I sold - maybe Boeing. What does this group think of the sell/hold question?  

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Bought 20 EA at $98.14 to go with my ATVI.  If I can get a discount on either, will add more.  Think these stocks could be a grand slam 10 years from now.

 

[The General]

I’m a genius again! Back at my personal all time high.

I haven’t done any trades for months.

 

[culdeus]

So where is the siffo post that said we'd pull up to ath and then have a apocalypse event a few months later?  

 

[fantasycurse42]

Vix at 13.  Aren't we supposed to go pants off at 10?

If the Vix gets to 10, I'm selling the farm - I rebalanced to about 7.5% cash in late Jan when the DJIA was right around 25k and moved a little more to Bonds as well. 

Debating upping cash to 12.5% right now. Feels like everyone is being lulled to a sense of security, can't tell if that is good or bad. 

 

[GoBirds]

Vix at 13.  Aren't we supposed to go pants off at 10?

Mine are off.....whose with me. 

 

[Capella]

Let's talk Amazon. It has certainly smashed through that 1700 wall since Friday and is now trading around 1783!  I've bought some over the past few months at an average cost of 1618 (sure wish I'd had more cash available early Jan when I got some at 1400!)  I'd been buying hoping for a rebound to the 2000 range, but 1781 is a tempting sell.  My investment strategy is fairly aggressive - maximizing growth. I have no idea where I'd invest the $ if I sold - maybe Boeing. What does this group think of the sell/hold question?  

I think amazon sees 2000 again later this year but I’m a homer for them. I was more shocked than anybody when it fell to 1350 so I’m no expert here. 

 

[siffoin]

So where is the siffo post that said we'd pull up to ath and then have a apocalypse event a few months later?  

Is this the post you are looking for?

Where we are Dec 21, 2018

I post the long term charts on Twitter every month.  Typically I wait a couple of weeks to post them...but they go back for some time.

 

[fantasycurse42]

 maybe Boeing. 

This is an interesting one to me - high risk, high reward. If you're long BA and another plane crashes, anticipate your investment dropping 15-20% instantly. On the long horizon, they're backed up on orders and the demand still appears to be there. 

Over the years I've changed my philosophies to be more about annual well paced growth, 6-7% makes me more than happy if I can try to limit my risk - if I took a position there, it would be 1-2% of assets. 

 

[Bossman]

amzn over 1800 today.

anyone considering cashing in here?

... or are we expecting this to maintain ...or continue to run?

 

[fantasycurse42]

3 month 10 year spread is about 3.5 basis points, once it inverts, I'd start scaling out of most positions over the course of the following 6 months - ideally the 2/10 inverts and confirms, but 3 month 10 year is basically as good of a flashing red indicator you're going to get to sell. 

 

[Bossman]

3 month 10 year spread is about 3.5 basis points, once it inverts, I'd start scaling out of most positions over the course of the following 6 months - ideally the 2/10 inverts and confirms, but 3 month 10 year is basically as good of a flashing red indicator you're going to get to sell. 

... so a slow withdraw ... in the event the stock bounces?

that leads to the next question; what to do with all that cash. Bonds seem so lame.

 

[stbugs]

amzn over 1800 today.

anyone considering cashing in here?

... or are we expecting this to maintain ...or continue to run?

I cashed out 20% above 1700 but wished I waited a bit. It was struggling so hard and I was more worried about keeping gains (cost basis is in 700s). Can’t sell for a couple months so I’ll be watching intently. Still have lots of cash waiting to work again. Missed the sub 1600 a week ago. Damn work!

 

[culdeus]

... so a slow withdraw ... in the event the stock bounces?

that leads to the next question; what to do with all that cash. Bonds seem so lame.

Crypto, wheatpennies, whatever element GM is hyping, etc.  

 

[Capella]

amzn over 1800 today.

anyone considering cashing in here?

... or are we expecting this to maintain ...or continue to run?

These sites may be dumb and I don’t know how they come up with their methodology but it has amazon at 2100 in June and almost 2300 in November. I don’t really trust them but I do like to peek at them for ideas.

https://walletinvestor.com/stock-forecast/amzn-stock-prediction

 

[fantasycurse42]

Anyone listen to the Powell yesterday? I had it in an earphone on the background, feels like he just fully capitulated - the question I'm asking is why? What does he/they see that has them scared? 

 

[stbugs]

These sites may be dumb and I don’t know how they come up with their methodology but it has amazon at 2100 in June and almost 2300 in November. I don’t really trust them but I do like to peek at them for ideas.

https://walletinvestor.com/stock-forecast/amzn-stock-prediction

I’d be giddy if that happened.

 

[fantasycurse42]

So the 3 month & 10 year inverted this morning. 

When trying to log in this morning, I kept getting an error message, then I realized I had typed my name in as Fantasycurve42  Guess it’s on my mind.

This is the bond market giving you your warning, the 2/10 are next. 

You can believe one of two things:

1) This time is different (possibly the most dangerous concept in investing)

or 

2) A recession is coming within 12-18 months tops

I am 100% lowering my risk concentration over the next 6 months. 

 

[fantasycurse42]

Also debating shorting the bank stocks. There is a debt bomb somewhere out there, and if we do hit a recession, those banks will be dealing with defaults.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Also debating shorting the bank stocks. There is a debt bomb somewhere out there, and if we do hit a recession, those banks will be dealing with defaults.

Things are down 1.5% in the last 17 minutes, wtf?

 

[Bossman]

So the 3 month & 10 year inverted this morning. 

When trying to log in this morning, I kept getting an error message, then I realized I had typed my name in as Fantasycurve42  Guess it’s on my mind.

This is the bond market giving you your warning, the 2/10 are next. 

You can believe one of two things:

1) This time is different (possibly the most dangerous concept in investing)

or 

2) A recession is coming within 12-18 months tops

I am 100% lowering my risk concentration over the next 6 months. 

You've been lowering your risk concentration for the past year and a half ... how much lower can you go?

j/k FC ... but imo the market will do what it will do regardless of history, research, and charts. 

Like flipping a coin that lands on heads 3 times in a row ... it's still a 50/50 shot it lands heads on the next flip.

You'll be right eventually ... but until then, I'm in it to win it and I'm not letting "what if doom and gloom" keep me from making a profit.

 

[humpback]

Anyone listen to the Powell yesterday? I had it in an earphone on the background, feels like he just fully capitulated - the question I'm asking is why? What does he/they see that has them scared? 

The same things that many people are seeing- a slowing global economy, political turmoil, brexit, trade wars, debt levels, etc.

So the 3 month & 10 year inverted this morning. 

When trying to log in this morning, I kept getting an error message, then I realized I had typed my name in as Fantasycurve42  Guess it’s on my mind.

This is the bond market giving you your warning, the 2/10 are next. 

You can believe one of two things:

1) This time is different (possibly the most dangerous concept in investing)

or 

2) A recession is coming within 12-18 months tops

I am 100% lowering my risk concentration over the next 6 months. 

I think it might be "this time it's different", but not in a good way. Reactions (including overreactions) occur much more quickly than in the past, I doubt investors will wait until we actually enter a recession to sell. The risk/reward of waiting to try and time it perfectly doesn't seem very good IMO, particularly when you consider what the markets have done recently (and not so recently).

 

[Bossman]

... and others like myself will be bargain shopping today.

Lack of knowledge? Maybe.  ....holding too much cash? Probably.

Just wish that I pulled the trigger on that TVIX order that I had lined up at 25.05.

Had my mouse on the "submit order" tab and got cold feet ... after seeing the total amount I was putting up. Should have went with my gut.

 

[fantasycurse42]

The same things that many people are seeing- a slowing global economy, political turmoil, brexit, trade wars, debt levels, etc.

I think it might be "this time it's different", but not in a good way. Reactions (including overreactions) occur much more quickly than in the past, I doubt investors will wait until we actually enter a recession to sell. The risk/reward of waiting to try and time it perfectly doesn't seem very good IMO, particularly when you consider what the markets have done recently (and not so recently).

This is why I’m of the opinion to scale over the next 6 months, I think that a recession is lurking 12-18 months out, scaling over the next 6 months gets me out of the way far enough in advance.

Im also of the opinion that within 2-3 years a fresh round of money printing by all of the central banks will be taking shape, hence my ongoing love affair with gold.

 

[fantasycurse42]

You've been lowering your risk concentration for the past year and a half ... how much lower can you go?

Since I've been lowering risk, the market has produced a gigantic nothingburger - I'd say my returns are very close, if not better than mean over the last 10-12 months (when I started getting more bearish). 

At this juncture, thinking I'm in the same neighborhood as most on 12 month returns, I'm just positioned for volatility and money printing much better, while the overwhelming majority of the population is being herded into a slaughterhouse... We'll see. Pigs do get slaughtered, we just have short memories, I wish you the best bargain hunting today.

It's a marathon, not a sprint, took me a long time to learn that lesson.

 

[Bossman]

Since I've been lowering risk, the market has produced a gigantic nothingburger - I'd say my returns are very close, if not better than mean over the last 10-12 months (when I started getting more bearish). 

At this juncture, thinking I'm in the same neighborhood as most on 12 month returns, I'm just positioned for volatility and money printing much better, while the overwhelming majority of the population is being herded into a slaughterhouse... We'll see. Pigs do get slaughtered, we just have short memories, I wish you the best bargain hunting today.

So much for bargain hunting. I panicked and sold off 40 shares of amzn. Lost about $400 while I was procrastinating short term vs long term gains.

I will want to get those back when the dip is deep enough. 

 

[Bossman]

In 

Hope you're still holding this tvix from 10 days ago.

Chaaaachinnnnggg!!!

 

[humpback]

So much for bargain hunting. I panicked and sold off 40 shares of amzn. Lost about $400 while I was procrastinating short term vs long term gains.

I will want to get those back when the dip is deep enough. 

How do you go from bargain hunting to panic selling within the hour? No offense, but that's a recipe for disaster.

 

[Bossman]

How do you go from bargain hunting to panic selling within the hour? No offense, but that's a recipe for disaster.

Disaster is my middle name.

Still bargain hunting. Prices need to come down beyond where they were two weeks ago for me to be interested. A 2% discount isn't much of a bargain.

quick flip on amzn. I'll get those shares back when the dip is done. She drops $50 and I buy back in ... x 40 shares ... I'm up $2k lickety-split.

She drops $100? Even better. As Bob Barker would say .... "C'Mon Down!".

 

[humpback]

Disaster is my middle name.

Still bargain hunting. Prices need to come down beyond where they were two weeks ago for me to be interested. A 2% discount isn't much of a bargain.

quick flip on amzn. I'll get those shares back when the dip is done. She drops $50 and I buy back in ... x 40 shares ... I'm up $2k lickety-split.

She drops $100? Even better. As Bob Barker would say .... "C'Mon Down!".

You said you were going to be bargain hunting today. Anywho, good luck (you're going to need it if you're trying to "flip" things)!

 

[fantasycurse42]

You said you were going to be bargain hunting today. Anywho, good luck (you're going to need it if you're trying to "flip" things)!

It’s funny, Amazon was up almost 45%ish since the December lows.

In case people don’t realize, those who were buying in late December aren’t your friends. It’s the opposite, they’re the enemy.

Those huge/quick gains will be protected.

 

[humpback]

This is why I’m of the opinion to scale over the next 6 months, I think that a recession is lurking 12-18 months out, scaling over the next 6 months gets me out of the way far enough in advance.

Im also of the opinion that within 2-3 years a fresh round of money printing by all of the central banks will be taking shape, hence my ongoing love affair with gold.

I'm saying that if people are expecting a recession in 12-18 months, they likely aren't going to be waiting 6 months to sell (see today).

 

[fantasycurse42]

I'm saying that if people are expecting a recession in 12-18 months, they likely aren't going to be waiting 6 months to sell (see today).

They can’t not buy, it’s all they know. Regardless, I’m already well positioned, but I’ll continue reducing risk. 

 

[pecorino]

Bargain hunted on BAC sub-27 today and TME sub-17.

 

[Bossman]

Picked up more cron on sale today.

Earnings report next week. We'll see.

Amzn play looking good. I can get back in at $1200 less than what I sold for at this point. Might wait and see if she drops a bit more.

 

[culdeus]

Wow tvix today.  Anyone cash?

 

[humpback]

They can’t not buy, it’s all they know. Regardless, I’m already well positioned, but I’ll continue reducing risk. 

Of course they can, see Q4.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Of course they can, see Q4.

They came back and bought it so hard and so quick, simply bc they couldn't not buy it. 

 

[humpback]

They came back and bought it so hard and so quick, simply bc they couldn't not buy it. 

Even if this were true, why wouldn't the same thing happen next time if they "can't not buy"? Anyway, obviously the primary reason for the rebound was the Fed reversing course.

That's my point about timing- in Q4 the market sold off hard because people feared the Fed tightening would eventually push us into a recession even though there weren't any signs that a recession was imminent. I think the same thing could/would happen this time (if yield curves invert and stay there for a while). Everyone knows that even if the inversion leads to a recession it likely won't happen for 12-18 months, but I doubt they stick around very long to find out.

 

[Unwrittenlaw]

What he probably meant to say was that Tesla "should be" one of the most shorted stocks.

Long on cannabis. Did you hear they're expecting "cannabis beverages" to be on the shelf in Canada within the next year?

So you can walk into a store and buy a cannabis energy drink ... like buying a RedBull.

Now vending machines? cannabis vending machine

With legalization just now happening in many states, just a matter of time before marijuana reaches the popularity of alcohol. 

Not exactly ground floor now, but still early enough to make a nice profit imo.

BUT I'M NEW TO THIS ... so proceed with caution. I've not much of an idea what I'm doing.

I'm in cannabis (CVSI/SPLIF). $50k invested in this. There seems to be a pattern growing for the past year or so for 100 mil market cap stocks in the marijuana industry.   Looking for growing revenue + $1 million+ gross profit revenue quarter, and positive net income for that quarter. It happened with CVSI last year (increased 15x) , VFF early this year (increased 5x as of this posting), and I think SPLIF is next if their earnings report is positive in the next few days.

 

[Unwrittenlaw]

These sites may be dumb and I don’t know how they come up with their methodology but it has amazon at 2100 in June and almost 2300 in November. I don’t really trust them but I do like to peek at them for ideas.

 https://walletinvestor.com/stock-forecast/amzn-stock-prediction

Went to that site before. Thought it was BS. I think https://www.americanbulls.com/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=AMZN is a lot better.

 

[Sand]

Went to that site before. Thought it was BS. I think https://www.americanbulls.com/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=AMZN is a lot better.

They seem to offer an opinion on everything...

I just read Avi Gilbert, Jeff Miller, George Vrba, and Frank Piard on SA for opining on general economic winds.  I don't trust a site like the above to be better than Kramer on individual stocks.