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Stock Thread (9 Viewers)

Shula-holic said:
I think he was doing it via SPY but essentially the same, roughly resistance levels at 2200, 2100, then 1800 I believe.  I'm not the best technical/chart guy so someone feel free to correct me.
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Those would be general support levels.  I think he was asking about resistance...which is in the $270-80ish levels.

Honestly...I think we're have more than a punchers chance to drop to around $130ish $SPY

 
humpback said:
Apology accepted?  :lol:

Now that we've put that behind us, can we all agree that none of us "knows" what's going to happen? Just because I may have a different opinion than you doesn't make me a "total bear who thinks we are doomed". These are unprecedented moves we've been seeing, which makes sense because these are unprecedented circumstances. Time will tell how it all shakes out, but I think it's only prudent to consider the possibility that this isn't going to be a short term issue with a quick v-shaped recovery.
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Yes....I agree. This is getting quite serious. I do believe we are going to come out of it. But a V shaped recovery is wishful thinking. U shaped is more on the table. However....again, if we can get the curve down in the next 3-4 weeks we can see a bear market snap back of at least 10-15%. By year end I am hopeful we can see a 20% - 25% snap back from these levels. 

The market looks to open down 5% already at the bell....and the circus breaker will be hit again. This are truly unprecedented times. And it sucks. 

Pure doom and gloom headlines are really crushing this market. It is insane the speed this is happening at. But one thing is certain.

We will overcome this. We will recover from this. And this will be behind us IMO sooner rather than later. And the rally will be violent on the way back up too. 

 
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xulf said:
Pulling back now.  This market is so whacked out, it probably limits up overnight, open flat and circuit breakers up.  Everyone thinks we are headed down, so it will just do the opposite.
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That would be a nice surprise. We could use a relief rally.

But right now.....it is just wild volatility and all unknown territory. And more extreme forecasting by fed governor's does not help the markets......at all. It is making more people freak out.

 
Penguin said:
Thanks, that's pretty scary
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That would put the stock market at negative returns over 20 years and not all so good over 30.  :)

Almost entirely wiping out 2 of the biggest bull runs in history, lol.   

 
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lod001 said:
It's time to be all in. Italy is rolling over with new cases as is the state of Washington. The market wont wait for the all clear.

I could see a quick V bottom tomorrow.
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We haven't even heard the worst of the unemployment numbers and there are going to be plenty of layoffs from solid companies.  Not to mention we dont know when this virus plateaus and the time for any semblance of a return to normal happens.

Highly doubt now is the time to be all in.

 
Jefferson the Caregiver said:
We haven't even heard the worst of the unemployment numbers and there are going to be plenty of layoffs from solid companies.  Not to mention we dont know when this virus plateaus and the time for any semblance of a return to normal happens.

Highly doubt now is the time to be all in.
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I'm definitely not ready to go all in although I don't have a large cash position.

That said, I think the market has definitely digested the layoff and GDP estimates we've gotten from Goldman. Doesn't mean that there's no downside, just that I know the worries about layoffs has already been considered. What's still wide open is when the virus news turns positive. There is going to be a lot of bad unless there's some miracle cure/early recovery treatment. I think that's what he's saying that if WA numbers appear to be getting contained, i.e. China like the market will start looking positive even if we are still not out of lock downs in most states.

 
I figure what is going to happen tomorrow - it starts out shaply down.     Stuff like Delta drops back to $20, MGM back to $6 or whatever.     Then some people snap them up and they improve throughout the day.    Then they dump them for a quick profit.    And we end up down a lot again...   

 
DrJ said:
That would put the stock market at negative returns over 20 years and not all so good over 30.  :)

Almost entirely wiping out 2 of the biggest bull runs in history, lol.   
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Well siffoin's earlier advice saved my ### a few hundred thousand by getting out around DOW 26000 and protecting my tail in TAIL.

 
Shula-holic said:
Someone else brought this up, and having traded in USO before, I believe it kind of degrades over time.  But for shorter term trading I think it's the best way to track it.  I may be remembering wrong, but pretty sure it's USO.
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I've started collecting some UCO

 
Jefferson the Caregiver said:
We haven't even heard the worst of the unemployment numbers and there are going to be plenty of layoffs from solid companies.  Not to mention we dont know when this virus plateaus and the time for any semblance of a return to normal happens.

Highly doubt now is the time to be all in.
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I'm not going to be a pig on this and end up missing the boat. I can't just jump in mid day, my 457b executes end of day. Since I'm already beating the S&P by 15% and the NAZ by 10% for the year, I'll take that. If I get greedy, that could very well end up negative. 

 
humpback said:
Fed trying to come to the rescue yet again, let's see if it at least stops the bleeding this time.
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Well, that was interesting.  Let's see if they can keep it green until opening.

 
Argh.  I’ve put most of the funds I manage personally back into the market already, and with Futures hitting limit down this weekend I told my broker (brother) to get a majority of what he manages for me back into the market first thing this morning.  Unfortunately the Fed to the rescue is exactly what they needed to do, at likely the right time.  A huge down day today following last week’s bloodbath would just send more and more people into a panic, as this thing snowballs.  Just wish they would’ve announced this tonight.  

I still think odds are we still go lower, but I wanted to get back in and stop stressing about it.  Now?  Not sure what to do...again.

 
SayWhat? said:
Argh.  I’ve put most of the funds I manage personally back into the market already, and with Futures hitting limit down this weekend I told my broker (brother) to get a majority of what he manages for me back into the market first thing this morning.  Unfortunately the Fed to the rescue is exactly what they needed to do, at likely the right time.  A huge down day today following last week’s bloodbath would just send more and more people into a panic, as this thing snowballs.  Just wish they would’ve announced this tonight.  

I still think odds are we still go lower, but I wanted to get back in and stop stressing about it.  Now?  Not sure what to do...again.
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It went to 4% up and now is like 2% up.  Anything, at this point, can happen.

 
siffoin said:
Those would be general support levels.  I think he was asking about resistance...which is in the $270-80ish levels.

Honestly...I think we're have more than a punchers chance to drop to around $130ish $SPY
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It wouldn't entirely shock me. That would be right around the 60% mark off the highs - if anything a little short of what Hussman is predicting for the unwind.

It sounds apocalyptic but it's not really. All it takes to get there is a 25% haircut from peak-cycle earnings, 25% multiple compression, and a 30% downside overshoot of "fair value" due to fear and panic (0.75*0.75*0.7 = 0.39 = 61% down). The latter is what you typically see at the nadir of a bear, and the former two seem actually like they could be conservative based on early signs out of Goldman et al. I don't have an oracle's robe on and I'm not even saying it's likely ... but it's possible.

More anecdotally, the ratio of folks on this thread alone talking about buying the dips to selling everything and going to cash or gold is enough to tell me we're not at the bottom yet (sorry fellas).

 
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lod001 said:
I'm not going to be a pig on this and end up missing the boat. I can't just jump in mid day, my 457b executes end of day. Since I'm already beating the S&P by 15% and the NAZ by 10% for the year, I'll take that. If I get greedy, that could very well end up negative. 
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I’m with you. Market looks ahead. When you get the all clear dinner bell, it’ll have moved up a significant amount already imo. We know the unemployment numbers are going to look terrible, there are gonna to be a ton of layoffs and earnings are gonna be in the tank. That’s priced in, that’s why we’re down 35%. 

 
xulf said:
Pulling back now.  This market is so whacked out, it probably limits up overnight, open flat and circuit breakers up.  Everyone thinks we are headed down, so it will just do the opposite.
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:lmao:

 
As soon as there was talk that the bailouts/loans will come with stipulations we sell off hard again. Does the market really think it's just going to be "free" money?

 
stbugs said:
I'm definitely not ready to go all in although I don't have a large cash position.

That said, I think the market has definitely digested the layoff and GDP estimates we've gotten from Goldman. Doesn't mean that there's no downside, just that I know the worries about layoffs has already been considered. What's still wide open is when the virus news turns positive. There is going to be a lot of bad unless there's some miracle cure/early recovery treatment. I think that's what he's saying that if WA numbers appear to be getting contained, i.e. China like the market will start looking positive even if we are still not out of lock downs in most states.
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Yes, it's been considered, but in my opinion no way has -24% GDP for the 2nd qtr. or 20% unemployment been priced in (others are saying -30% and 30% unemployment). Consensus numbers aren't forecasting those levels (yet), seems more likely that's what's being priced in than the worst current predictions.

fruity pebbles said:
I’m with you. Market looks ahead. When you get the all clear dinner bell, it’ll have moved up a significant amount already imo. We know the unemployment numbers are going to look terrible, there are gonna to be a ton of layoffs and earnings are gonna be in the tank. That’s priced in, that’s why we’re down 35%. 
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Yes, the market looks ahead, but what exactly is priced in? You just wrote things like "terrible", "a ton", and "in the tank". There's a huge range of outcomes that would meet those definitions.

All we know is "some" bad news is priced in. There's really no way of knowing how much, or how bad it's going to actually get until after the fact.

 
so i just signed up with td ameritrade last week. deposited 100 bucks. the money has been withdrawn from my account but i still cannot buy anything?

i go into my account and it keeps showing Uncleared deposits $100. so confused why i cant spend this

 
humpback said:
Yes, it's been considered, but in my opinion no way has -24% GDP for the 2nd qtr. or 20% unemployment been priced in (others are saying -30% and 30% unemployment). Consensus numbers aren't forecasting those levels (yet), seems more likely that's what's being priced in than the worst current predictions.

Yes, the market looks ahead, but what exactly is priced in? You just wrote things like "terrible", "a ton", and "in the tank". There's a huge range of outcomes that would meet those definitions.

All we know is "some" bad news is priced in. There's really no way of knowing how much, or how bad it's going to actually get until after the fact.
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And the fact there’s so many people still optimistic means probably not soon haha 

 
Capella said:
Amazon is going to blast out their next two reports. 
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Amazon to me is one of the strongest buys in the short, mid and long term.   While I think the markets still have room to fall—I firmly believe that Amazon is one of a handful of stocks that is absolutely worth buying at these levels. 

 
Big League Chew said:
so i just signed up with td ameritrade last week. deposited 100 bucks. the money has been withdrawn from my account but i still cannot buy anything?

i go into my account and it keeps showing Uncleared deposits $100. so confused why i cant spend this
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If it is penny stocks, you gotta wait I believe. My bank account is linked to Atrade. I pulled right out of my savings account and it was there immediately. I could not buy a penny stock but I could buy MSFT. 

Plus you will pay $6 commission on penny stocks. The real stocks are free to buy and sell.

 
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lod001 said:
If it is penny stocks, you gotta wait I believe. My bank account is linked to Atrade. I pulled right out of my savings account and it was there immediately. I could not buy a penny stock but I could buy MSFT. 

Plus you will pay $6 commission on penny stocks. The real stocks are free to buy and sell.
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i was trying the CYDY and and ADX   ADX seems to work now

 
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