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Stock Thread (31 Viewers)

pecorino said:
Mostly long. I have 15% in cash, about 3% in short hedges (SPY puts) and the vast majority in ETFs and some individual stocks. My worry is more on the public health side, not the money side. I don't trust that our government will do what is in the best interest of the health of its people.
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Ah fair point. I mean Trump himself admitted it will ultimately be up to the governors. I will more fade the move if Trump hypes it up or expect the market will sell off if Trump takes a more reasonable tone in terms of a slow re-opening in phases. 

 
sporthenry said:
Ah fair point. I mean Trump himself admitted it will ultimately be up to the governors. I will more fade the move if Trump hypes it up or expect the market will sell off if Trump takes a more reasonable tone in terms of a slow re-opening in phases. 
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I just loaded up on JVNK - 3x ETF that tracks Javanka lead task forces.   :moneybag:

 
I got a PM asking why I was high on DFS

My reply:

P/E 3.63

Dividend $5.34

Selling at 1/3 the price from August 2019

It will face headwinds with the pandemic, but nothing like DIS, CAT and all the energy stocks. Their P/E could double and dividend go down 50% and their numbers still look better than DIS, CAT, energy and about everything else.

Love love ROKU and ABT, too. Probably more, but lacking the huge discount DSC has.

 
lod001 said:
House Democrats are pushing to pay Americans $2,000 a month during the economic crisis. Trump has signaled support for a 2nd round of payments.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-says-hes-interested-another-173929813.html

Under Reps. Tim Ryan and Ro Khanna's Emergency Money for the People Act,  :lmao:  announced Tuesday, US citizens who are 16 or older and make less than $130,000 a year would receive up to $2,000 a month from the federal government for at least six months and until unemployment falls to pre-pandemic levels. 

BIG is on the verge of starting. I love 'em all. Such great folks.  :sarcasm: but I'll gladly take more free $. I'd kinda like my name engraved somewhere on the T-coins when they give up the charade and start printing them.
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JFC, I am sure like the current checks I will somehow miss out on this as well but this is crazy. If they do this unemployment will never reach pre-pandemic lows because those were really freaking low and many people would rather sit at home for $2k a month. 

 
Nick Vermeil said:
Really?  24k a year?  
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Yes. 24k a year is more than 4 states minimum wage for 40 hours a week of work. Even in CA, would you rather work 40 hours a week for $26k or sit at home for $24k? A lot more stay at home dads and moms would happen if you have two low wage earners. The typical FBG salary isn’t minimum wage but there are a #### ton of people who make that and most states it’s way less than $24k a year.

The median income in the US including lots of good wage earners is $63k. A stay at home mom and dad in this scenario makes $48k. Seems pretty straightforward that a lot of people would do better or as well.

 
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https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1250876781718052867/photo/1

Document of the three phases of Reopening America leaked.  Doesn't say how we'll determine which phase but phase 1 includes avoiding groups of 10 or more. Schools stay closed, large venues (theaters/stadiums) can open under strict social distancing, gyms can open, bars stay closed. 

Stage 2 includes opening schools, bars where social distancing can be practiced, stadiums under moderate social distancing protocols. 

 
Nick Vermeil said:
Can I choose neither?
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I wouldn’t choose either as well but for a married couple staying at home for $2k a month a piece is as I posted above only 20% less than the median income in the US. If you’d choose neither then you aren’t the person I am talking about.

 
stbugs said:
JFC, I am sure like the current checks I will somehow miss out on this as well but this is crazy. If they do this unemployment will never reach pre-pandemic lows because those were really freaking low and many people would rather sit at home for $2k a month. 
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I'm guessing this isn't a very serious policy proposal, more of a signal to the other side that the next round of checks has to be bigger. 

 
lod001 said:
House Democrats are pushing to pay Americans $2,000 a month during the economic crisis. Trump has signaled support for a 2nd round of payments.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-says-hes-interested-another-173929813.html

Under Reps. Tim Ryan and Ro Khanna's Emergency Money for the People Act,  :lmao:  announced Tuesday, US citizens who are 16 or older and make less than $130,000 a year would receive up to $2,000 a month from the federal government for at least six months and until unemployment falls to pre-pandemic levels. 

BIG is on the verge of starting. I love 'em all. Such great folks.  :sarcasm: but I'll gladly take more free $. I'd kinda like my name engraved somewhere on the T-coins when they give up the charade and start printing them.
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Quickly checks 2019 AGI :)  (just below. But I think I'm over it for 2020) :oldunsure: .  Thinking I might need to go all traditional tsp if this passes unless there's a phase out.

Nick Vermeil said:
Really?  24k a year?  
Click to expand...
:shrug:  have you ever checked out the FIRE movement? If there were no inflation this would be sufficient for many there, or so they say.

 
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caustic said:
I'm guessing this isn't a very serious policy proposal, more of a signal to the other side that the next round of checks has to be bigger. 
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Probably true. I don’t mind stimulus checks and some people have gotten screwed. I’m lucky and don’t complain about that at all because most of those checks will get spent. This is just a whole different ball game.

 
matuski said:
Can you educate me on PEO?
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PEO is a closed end fund that focuses it’s holdings and investment strategy in the energy sector only. Their top holdings and highest weighting's are in the Largest diversified oil companies in the world. Exxon, Chevron, Royal Dutch, Valero, Marathon, BP, etc.

They ay an outstanding dividend and this gives you a well diversified play on the oil space. I recommended back when it was around $6.80 a share which at the time was over a 25% discount on it’s net asset value. Insane

I used to love oil stocks for long term growth and a stable growing dividend. Those days a gone. In fact they have been since 2015/2016. Now I view the oil sector as a true cyclical commodity trade. So right now Oil is at lows we have not seen in decades. IMO it is a great time to go in and go long on oil.

Hope that helps. 

 
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stbugs said:
JFC, I am sure like the current checks I will somehow miss out on this as well but this is crazy. If they do this unemployment will never reach pre-pandemic lows because those were really freaking low and many people would rather sit at home for $2k a month. 
Click to expand...
Yeah. Exactly. It made me laugh.

 
stbugs said:
JFC, I am sure like the current checks I will somehow miss out on this as well but this is crazy. If they do this unemployment will never reach pre-pandemic lows because those were really freaking low and many people would rather sit at home for $2k a month. 
Click to expand...
Exactly I'm OK with people getting help but good god. 

 
lod001 said:
All day long around here. Every 'never learned anything, loser in HS' would fit that category and there are boatloads of them.
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But then they would complain about wealthy not paying their fair share of taxes. But I don't hear anyone protesting cause I'm not getting a stimulus check. 

 
Mancini - We're coiled very tight now in $SPX and price looks to be waiting for a catalyst. The triangle in my below chart is well formed will determine the next leg - a breakout should see 100+ points up quickly to my upside targets. If so, this should setup a nice pullback next week

Amazing how it coincides exactly with Trump making a major announcement. 

From earlier today: For those looking for another pop higher in $SPX, this is the setup: Price is coiling up into a triangle now on the 1hr chart, which means a move is coming. Breakout targets 2855 with 2930 above. If we lose support at 2735 first though, we'll get the drop bears are waiting on

 
lod001 said:
Mancini - We're coiled very tight now in $SPX and price looks to be waiting for a catalyst. The triangle in my below chart is well formed will determine the next leg - a breakout should see 100+ points up quickly to my upside targets. If so, this should setup a nice pullback next week

Amazing how it coincides exactly with Trump making a major announcement. 

From earlier today: For those looking for another pop higher in $SPX, this is the setup: Price is coiling up into a triangle now on the 1hr chart, which means a move is coming. Breakout targets 2855 with 2930 above. If we lose support at 2735 first though, we'll get the drop bears are waiting on
Click to expand...
Bought SPY around 2PM tomgo along with the rest of my positions.  Try and get one more pop out of this before going short at 2900

 
Any of you guys have opinions on the health insurance stocks such as UNH or ANTM?

I work in healthcare and patient volumes at my client hospitals are down 50+% due to COVID.  All elective surgeries (such as knee/hip replacements, spinal fusions, endoscopies, etc) are cancelled which are the money makers for hospitals and big payouts for the insurance carriers.  I assume the volume will pick back up post-pandemic but i don't know if it will totally be made up.

 
cosjobs said:
Even at current price? I like the stock, but jeez its high. Would almost prefer GOOG?

But I think its one of those things, like grocery delivery, that people will become accustomed to, like, and continue after the pandemic
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I don't know. I'm not sure how anyone could atm. I'm happy to be in it at a much lower cost basis and not have to make that call. Just jumped off the page as absent when I read what it was and what was in it. All I can say is, even where it is, it's only a $12B company.

 
stbugs said:
Yes. 24k a year is more than 4 states minimum wage for 40 hours a week of work. Even in CA, would you rather work 40 hours a week for $26k or sit at home for $24k? A lot more stay at home dads and moms would happen if you have two low wage earners. The typical FBG salary isn’t minimum wage but there are a #### ton of people who make that and most states it’s way less than $24k a year.

The median income in the US including lots of good wage earners is $63k. A stay at home mom and dad in this scenario makes $48k. Seems pretty straightforward that a lot of people would do better or as well.
Click to expand...
What? Most people would keep their job and collect the $2000 a month.

 
metoo said:
stbugs said:
Yes. 24k a year is more than 4 states minimum wage for 40 hours a week of work. Even in CA, would you rather work 40 hours a week for $26k or sit at home for $24k? A lot more stay at home dads and moms would happen if you have two low wage earners. The typical FBG salary isn’t minimum wage but there are a #### ton of people who make that and most states it’s way less than $24k a year.

The median income in the US including lots of good wage earners is $63k. A stay at home mom and dad in this scenario makes $48k. Seems pretty straightforward that a lot of people would do better or as well.
Click to expand...
What? Most people would keep their job and collect the $2000 a month.
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Also this isn’t like the Yang plan that it’s in perpetuity. This is just a Band-Aid Financial relief for Covid, it would only be for a few months.

 
I am setting my portfolio on fire and the tinder is International Paper.

IP has beaten earnings for 4 quarters in a row. Their Q1 Corona consensus is a paltry 44 cents. Earnings is 4/30/20. IP is a key component in the push to bring manufacturing back to the USA. Their supply chain is heavily USA and almost all North America. Their P/E is roughly 50% of the industry average. They are getting killed because of the business downturn (people aren't printing on Hammermill).

Have 2500 left for my 2020 Roth contribution. If IP has another flat/down day, may just skip buying shares and throw it into 5/1 35 calls.

Disclaimer: I'm an idiot who doesn't know what they're doing. I got lucky and am playing with house money. I've lost 30% on my foray into IP and am obviously throwing good money after bad.

 
metoo said:
What? Most people would keep their job and collect the $2000 a month.
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I was referring to the part about it lasting until the unemployment was back down to pre-pandemic levels, which were 3.5%, I think. Just thinking there’d be enough people out of work that wouldn’t bother to go back, hence never getting back to that level. It’s not happening but it was more a joke about the amount causing it to never stop.

 
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Todem said:
PEO is a closed end fund that focuses it’s holdings and investment strategy in the energy sector only. Their top holdings and highest weighting's are in the Largest diversified oil companies in the world. Exxon, Chevron, Royal Dutch, Valero, Marathon, BP, etc.

They ay an outstanding dividend and this gives you a well diversified play on the oil space. I recommended back when it was around $6.80 a share which at the time was over a 25% discount on it’s net asset value. Insane

I used to love oil stocks for long term growth and a stable growing dividend. Those days a gone. In fact they have been since 2015/2016. Now I view the oil sector as a true cyclical commodity trade. So right now Oil is at lows we have not seen in decades. IMO it is a great time to go in and go long on oil.

Hope that helps. 
Click to expand...
Would you close positions in XOM/CVX to open up PEO?

 
cosjobs said:
I got a PM asking why I was high on DFS

My reply:

P/E 3.63

Dividend $5.34

Selling at 1/3 the price from August 2019

It will face headwinds with the pandemic, but nothing like DIS, CAT and all the energy stocks. Their P/E could double and dividend go down 50% and their numbers still look better than DIS, CAT, energy and about everything else.
Click to expand...
Yeah, might jump in this one tomorrow. Kicking myself for not doing so today (up 13% after hours) but still plenty of room to run.

 
Remember on the COVID drugs, there are at least three major types that could ll succeed:

Testing - ABT seems in the lead there with a million tests , then fie million the next month. I hope its their drug that gives results in five minutes.

Vaccine - (and/or antibody) - they'll prevent well people from getting the disease

Curative - this is where CYDY is. If they can really get substantial numbers out of ITC and off respirators, there should be a place for them

Haven't read up on Gilead's drug, yet. For the sake of CYDY, I'm hoping its a vaccine.

 
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