Yeah, still sell you think? So true, until that dough is in your pocket, it's not up.
Dropped 10% on the day, still up 60% on the whole. Can't this stock only get better going forward?
I felt 13ish bucks was the highest I could see it given the debt load etc and it nearly touched there. But you can see how volatile it is. I saw a good trade and made it. Will I buy it again for a trade? Probably....when it drops under 10 which I believe it will. Their balance sheet is hot garbage.
I would take my money on this one like I said back when I did it. This is not some high quality stock I would make part of my core portfolio. Simply a Covid trade.
The economic damage that has been done has not made its way into stock prices. Why? The market has no clue with zero guidance. We are flying blind. So on weak balance sheet companies that trade wildly like BLMN I take my 50-60% and pat myself on the back and look for another trade to potentially make.
My serious money is invested in my master list for the long term. Currently 70% Stocks and 30% cash again. I feel the market has topped out here for 2020. I think where we were last week will be where we close in December....maybe a tad higher maybe a little lower. I will pounce on the next correction. Because make no mistake there will be one. People have no patience though....so they plow into this rally thinking they missed it (which they did). We did not. But we sold 15% into this rally a week ago like I posted here by trimming highly consumer sensitive and cyclical industrials.
The value in this market on the next leg down will be:
Utilities
REITS
Industrials
Materials
The market has been led heavily by big tech.....that is about it (and staples). There are plenty of good stocks still 15-20% down from their highs. But you have to ask yourselves. Is the economy going to get back to where it was pre corona this fast? I say no. It will take at least 12 maybe 18 months to do that. And that is assuming a successful reopening that is starting around the country. There will be flare ups, new outbreaks and again fear can grip this market again....enough so to send it down 10 even 15% again. So be ready.
If I am wrong.....great. But I feel good sitting 70% invested as a long term guy and having cash for another downturn in the market. I do not think you see the lows of March 23rd. But you don’t need to in order to get great stocks at lower prices. Even a modest 10% correction will be healthy for the market again. Because right now this is all air and the Fed priming the printing press. This is a rally built on hopes, dreams and not rooted in fundamentals. And when the fundamentals meet the road at some point....and this may take months BTW. You will see another leg down. Which is normal BTW. In 2017 we had what......three 10% corrections? So another 10% correction is very much going to happen. It is just a matter of when. So if you have cash......be smart. Don’t chase the market. Let it come to you. It will. If your fully invested (like my retirement accounts all are) no worries. Stay long. But your taxable accounts....be patient and pounce when some fear and pain enter the market again. The market is a forward looking device....we all know that.
But what is it using to look forward in this situation? It can’t be earnings. No one has a any clue what earnings are going to look like in this new normal we will be facing over the next 12 months. Because life is not going back to normal again anytime soon with shoulder to shoulder theme parks, planes, crusielines, travel around the world, restaurants being packed to the rafters, concerts, sporting events, etc etc etc. We are a consumption economy. We are going to lose the ability to consume at the pace we had pre COVID. That won’t come back for at least a year....maybe longer. Again no one can sit here and predict that. That is why I say the market right now is trading on hopes and dreams, not grounded in the real economic reality we are about to truly face for the next 12-18 months. Many small business are gone permanently, jobs will be lost permanently, and all of this was a self induced recession. It will be looked back on and argued if we did the right thing yada yada yada. I have no idea right now. I don’t think anyone can say with any certainty what is going to happen over the next year. This health crisis mutated into a financial/economic crisis. It is incredible what has taken shape in just 2 months. And aggravating. It is a shame. Our economy was humming.