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ETF question.  It's my understanding that 1) when you sell its at the price at the end of the day and 2) the price isn't updated until after the trading day ends.  Are those both true?

I'm looking to sell a little FNILX (which is my biggest holding across a few retirement accounts), to have cash to pick up a few more positions in individual stocks in my Roth.  Not trying to "time the market", per se, but would like to sell on an up day if I have the choice.  So if an ETF's price can't be followed during the trading day, is the best guess at which direction it may have gone that day to track the top 10 holdings, which in this case make up almost 25% of its holdings?.  

 
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SFBayDuck said:
ETF question.  It's my understanding that 1) when you sell its at the price at the end of the day and 2) the price isn't updated until after the trading day ends.  Are those both true?

I'm looking to sell a little FNILX (which is my biggest holding across a few retirement accounts), to have cash to pick up a few more positions in individual stocks in my Roth.  Not trying to "time the market", per se, but would like to sell on an up day if I have the choice.  So if an ETF's price can't be followed during the trading day, is the best guess at which direction it may have gone that day to track the top 10 holdings, which in this case make up almost 25% of its holdings?.  
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You're confusing ETF with mutual fund.

FNILX is a mutual fund, but you can find a similar ETF and get a good feel for what the MF will end that day. I'm not sure if there's a perfectly correlated ETF, but VOO may be similar enough to guess with. 

 
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-OZ- said:
You're confusing ETF with mutual fund.

FNILX is a mutual fund, but you can find a similar ETF and get a good feel for what the MF will end that day. I'm not sure if there's a perfectly correlated ETF, but VOO may be similar enough to guess with. 
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Yes I sure was, thanks!

 
Sandeman said:
Hate to break it to you GB, but that whole thing is staged. (IMO)
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Yes. I mean, any Q&A session done at any conference held by investment banks are staged. Well at least management gets Q&A ahead of time. Earnings calls are the only time management probably doesn't have the questions ahead of time but even they can sort of cherry pick whose questions they take. But what makes this even richer is that they pay this firm and this lady to ask them questions that CYDY gives them. 

 
sporthenry said:
Yes. I mean, any Q&A session done at any conference held by investment banks are staged. Well at least management gets Q&A ahead of time. Earnings calls are the only time management probably doesn't have the questions ahead of time but even they can sort of cherry pick whose questions they take. But what makes this even richer is that they pay this firm and this lady to ask them questions that CYDY gives them. 
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While I agree and understand your points, I feel you have a small group in over their head that have zero clue about marketing and communications. I really want to help them, but honestly, with good data, the science will get the message out. They have no idea how to get the PR out on their own. The move yesterday prob shocked them just as well, so NP contacted the only place he knows he can get a message out in response. 

ETA: I enjoyed the girls Zoom background of Manhattan, where do we actually think she was located?

 
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NKLAW:

From: Nikola Investors
To: D
Sent: Friday, June 26, 2020, 03:36:21 p.m. EDT
Subject: Re: Fw: Nicola Warrants

D,

Warrants can not be exercised into a share until the SEC approves the Resale S-1 filed June 15, 2020, AND the warrant exercise period has begun. The warrant exercise period begins July 3rd, however the market is closed on the 3rd of in observance of the 4th of July so it is effectively Monday July 6th.

Nikola has not publicly disclosed whether or not will call the warrants for redemption, as the company's redemption right has not yet become effective. The first day the redemption right could become effective is July 3rd. If Nikola chooses to call the warrants for redemption, the company will give a formal redemption notice, and warrant holders will have 30 days to exercise their warrants into a share.

We do not know how long it will take to receive your share once warrants are exercised. That would be a better question for your broker.

Regards,
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@FreeBaGeL and whoever else messed with this.

eta - I still don't understand what I'm supposed to do here.  :lol:    

 
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@sporthenry Question for you. How long does it take for these sales to settle typically?

I’m a bit confused on that.

Background: All my CYDY sold off in yesterday’s craziness. I bought more with that money the same day and got notification today that was a no-no due to settled funds or something. Got a warning basically. 

I bought some stuff this afternoon I will keep long term but noticed that it gave me a warning that I need to hold and not sell until those until the funds have settled but this has been a full day now.

Hopefully I explained this correctly.

 
The General said:
@sporthenry Question for you. How long does it take for these sales to settle typically?

I’m a bit confused on that.

Background: All my CYDY sold off in yesterday’s craziness. I bought more with that money the same day and got notification today that was a no-no due to settled funds or something. Got a warning basically. 

I bought some stuff this afternoon I will keep long term but noticed that it gave me a warning that I need to hold and not sell until those until the funds have settled but this has been a full day now.

Hopefully I explained this correctly.
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Equities are T+2 so if you sold Monday, it won't settle until Wednesday. So you should settle Wednesday's activity tomorrow. I'm not an expert on the timing of it. I take it you don't have a margin account? Fidelity doesn't let you margin CYDY anyways so essentially you need to have cash to cover it. So I'm probably close to running afoul of that since I've been going in and out of it over the past few days. 

But for the longer stuff, if you had margin buying power, it would reduce any headache from that. 

 
Thinking about dipping a toe into NEE, but I know some of the people here have a fondness for PPL. Anybody have a case to make for PPL >>NEE?

 
sporthenry said:
Equities are T+2 so if you sold Monday, it won't settle until Wednesday. So you should settle Wednesday's activity tomorrow. I'm not an expert on the timing of it. I take it you don't have a margin account? Fidelity doesn't let you margin CYDY anyways so essentially you need to have cash to cover it. So I'm probably close to running afoul of that since I've been going in and out of it over the past few days. 

But for the longer stuff, if you had margin buying power, it would reduce any headache from that. 
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Thanks. I must not have a margin account.

From my description am I ok with the ones I bought today? I think the funds I used still need to settle I guess. It just gave a message about not selling but still let me do it.

 
Bob Sacamano said:
Thinking about dipping a toe into NEE, but I know some of the people here have a fondness for PPL. Anybody have a case to make for PPL >>NEE?
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What is your end game? NEE's dividend yield is a lot smaller due to its higher growth prospects. That company has its hands in everything from pipelines to renewables. PPL is a pure-play utility. It's more boring. 6% yield seems high so it's either undervalued or at risk of a dividend cut. So you either get dividends plus stock appreciation or a dividend cut and likely stock sell-off. If you want income, PPL may be your better bet assuming your comfortable with them not cutting it. But long-term appreciation, I think NEE's growth prospects are higher. 

 
The General said:
Thanks. I must not have a margin account.

From my description am I ok with the ones I bought today? I think the funds I used still need to settle I guess. It just gave a message about not selling but still let me do it.
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You're ok in the sense of you're holding them longer-term and they said don't sell them until they settle, which would likely be tomorrow. You probably got tagged with one of the violations. You may have had a good faith one and were at risk of running into a free riding one which would restrict you to only trading settled funds (at least on Fidelity) for 90 days. They probably sent you something if you violated one. I don't think it could have been the free riding one since you haven't sold it yet but that would be the worst one. 

 
sporthenry said:
You're ok in the sense of you're holding them longer-term and they said don't sell them until they settle, which would likely be tomorrow. You probably got tagged with one of the violations. You may have had a good faith one and were at risk of running into a free riding one which would restrict you to only trading settled funds (at least on Fidelity) for 90 days. They probably sent you something if you violated one. I don't think it could have been the free riding one since you haven't sold it yet but that would be the worst one. 
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I’ll definitely keep the stocks I bought today for the long term (and the CYDY through at least tomorrow now based on what you said).

Hopefully they don’t get pissed :lol:

Thanks again for the info and all the posts you drop in here.

 
matuski said:
NKLAW:

@FreeBaGeL and whoever else messed with this.

eta - I still don't understand what I'm supposed to do here.  :lol:    
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Yeah so it looks like warrants were supposed to unlock 30 days after the merger (when VTIQ became NKLA).  As a part of that process NKLA had to file an S-1 with the SEC, which they did about 2 weeks ago.  That is usually a formality and takes a couple of days to get approved by the SEC but looks like the SEC sent it back and wanted something in it changed.  So even if the 30 days pass by the warrants still can't be exercised until that approval comes in.

NKLA filed the ammended approval a couple of hours ago.  Hard to tell what all was changed, looks like just some verbage and dates and whatnot.  I guess we will see if the SEC approves it this time.

One thing that it does solidify is that the PIPE shares and the warrants are in the same S-1 filing so they will be unlocked together.  So IF there is a big share price drop as a result of the pipe shares unlocking we won't be able to exercise our warrants before that happens.  They will unlock at the same time and it will take our broker 1-3 days to convert our warrants to shares during which time the pipe investors will already have their shares to play with.

That part definitely adds some risk to the equation for me.  I was hoping that one way to beat the pipe selloff was for it to not happen until after our warrants are exercised and we're out of the picture.  Now it looks like we will have to rely on not enough of them selling off to kill the share price beyond our arbitrage advantage.

 
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I believe there will be more short attacks on Cydy in the next few weeks. Why wouldn’t they after yesterday? I’m going to try and play it to increase my shares. I don’t have many and can’t add more cash. Pray for me. 

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Yeah so it looks like warrants were supposed to unlock 30 days after the merger (when VTIQ became NKLA).  As a part of that process NKLA had to file an S-1 with the SEC, which they did about 2 weeks ago.  That is usually a formality and takes a couple of days to get approved by the SEC but looks like the SEC sent it back and wanted something in it changed.  So even if the 30 days pass by the warrants still can't be exercised until that approval comes in.

NKLA filed the ammended approval a couple of hours ago.  Hard to tell what all was changed, looks like just some verbage and dates and whatnot.  I guess we will see if the SEC approves it this time.

One thing that it does solidify is that the PIPE shares and the warrants are in the same S-1 filing so they will be unlocked together.  So IF there is a big share price drop as a result of the pipe shares unlocking we won't be able to exercise our warrants before that happens.  They will unlock at the same time and it will take our broker 1-3 days to convert our warrants to shares during which time the pipe investors will already have their shares to play with.

That part definitely adds some risk to the equation for me.  I was hoping that one way to beat the pipe selloff was for it to not happen until after our warrants are exercised and we're out of the picture.  Now it looks like we will have to rely on not enough of them selling off to kill the share price beyond our arbitrage advantage.
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So why not just sell the warrants for a decent profit tomorrow?

 
Shula-holic said:
TIPS anyone?
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TIPS will likely get a bid but I just worry that CPI will continue to lag. I'm not an economist but it seemingly hasn't kept up with actual inflation in a consumer economy. Just feel like there could be a scenario where CPI doesn't rise as much as real inflation. 

 
Nick Vermeil said:
I believe there will be more short attacks on Cydy in the next few weeks. Why wouldn’t they after yesterday? I’m going to try and play it to increase my shares. I don’t have many and can’t add more cash. Pray for me. 
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You're going to need something incremental to the short thesis to really move the needle. I think the short attack likely keeps it from going parabolic again. I suppose if there aren't heavy pockets backing it but it sounds like the shorts played both sides and the thing didn't drop much below $5. So it clearly has support and would seemingly take a lot for it to drop back to $2. Obviously a lot of weak hands, myself included holding this. But I'd hope folks are better prepared for the next one. If not for nothing, the fact people are on here with cash waiting to buy the next dip is a positive. 

 
matuski said:
So why not just sell the warrants for a decent profit tomorrow?
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Because I am a compulsive gambler.

Selling the warrants for a reasonable profit is certainly the safer move.

My wife told me to sell half.  I told her hedges are for ####ies.

Obviously I would treat this differently in my main investment/retirement account but this is my gambling account where NKLA warrants and CYDY are by far my two largest holdings.  I may still sell a chunk of them just because it would suck to see those profits disappear, especially after what happened with CYDY yesterday when I was considering taking some profits but didn't.

I will have a few bourbons tonight and make a decision.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Because I am a compulsive gambler.

Selling the warrants for a reasonable profit is certainly the safer move.

My wife told me to sell half.  I told her hedges are for ####ies.

Obviously I would treat this differently in my main investment/retirement account but this is my gambling account where NKLA warrants and CYDY are by far my two largest holdings.  I may still sell a chunk of them just because it would suck to see those profits disappear, especially after what happened with CYDY yesterday when I was considering taking some profits but didn't.

I will have a few bourbons tonight and make a decision.
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I would gamble as well if I thought I would get in before the PIPE shares.

Now I'm thinking I'm out asap.

 
matuski said:
I would gamble as well if I thought I would get in before the PIPE shares.

Now I'm thinking I'm out asap.
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Yeah it's a tough call.  Current warrant value is $33 AH which with the exercise price puts it at the equivalent of about $44.5 per share.  Current actual share price is $65.  So the stock could drop around 30% and we'd still be basically break even with where we are for selling the warrants right now.

Obviously it could potentially drop a lot more than 30%, who knows.  7/17 put premiums imply an expected share price of around $40-$45 by July 17.

The upside is if the PIPE investors don't sell off en masse then with the crazy borrow rates this thing could squeeze into huge upside.  Huge risk along with it though.

I'm not sure if there are any comps out there with other stocks where PIPE shares took up such a large percentage of available float and what happened when those shares unlocked.  I haven't been able to find any.

 
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So with NKLA, the share price is expected to drop quite a bit soon right (I shared a video about it maybe a week or so ago)?  Something about those PIPE investors?  If I remember correctly a very small percentage of the company shares are circulating among the general public, correct?

Is there a buy point anyone is looking at?  The CEO dude seems shady but I suppose I wouldn't mind taking a stab at hydrogen vehicles with a little play money.

 
sporthenry said:
Trump says he supports ‘larger’ payments to Americans than Democrats in next coronavirus relief bill

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/coronavirus-update-trump-says-he-supports-larger-payments-to-americans.html

So now we're going to get a race to see which party can blow more money. Should be great for the $.
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Eh, I’ll believe it once McConnell gets on board. This probably isn’t the thread for it, but my understanding is that congressional Rs are stuck between Trump, who wants another big stimulus for re-election purposes, and GOP donors, who are threatening to pull the plug on campaign $$$ if they pass another huge bill. It’ll be interesting to see how that tension gets resolved.

 
djmich said:
You guys know we have a forum for this talk, right.
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Oh no, the thread police. So we can't discuss fiscal stimulus here? The market is literally dependent on the federal government right now. Or was it my passing comment on UBI? Either way, the implication of another stimulus bill, and an even larger one at that, has massive implications for the market. The latter discussion may not be as relevant but definitely will impact the longer term markets. But yes, let's get back to the long-term investing strategy of picking the next hot SPAC. 

 
sporthenry said:
But hey, we'll make them work meaningless jobs for it. But it's not like anything that Bernie or Yang were proposing. Totally different. 
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Different, but not totally. suppose this is political but it’s also macro.

anywho, pumping cash in at both the top and bottom may mean a 4000 S&P by summers end imo.

 
caustic said:
Eh, I’ll believe it once McConnell gets on board. This probably isn’t the thread for it, but my understanding is that congressional Rs are stuck between Trump, who wants another big stimulus for re-election purposes, and GOP donors, who are threatening to pull the plug on campaign $$$ if they pass another huge bill. It’ll be interesting to see how that tension gets resolved.
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I don't really know how you discuss stocks without mentioning massive government intervention at this point. I guess this thread is so sophisticated that we've already priced in these policies. But as far as I'm concerned, this market is driven by two things: the coronavirus along with possible treatments / vaccines and the government response (fiscal / monetary policy). I think there is a way to discuss it without going off the rails and quite frankly, if you aren't discussing it because it's politics, you are missing out on a huge thing. Heck, I'm sure I can't talk about the upcoming election even though some have said it could have a 10% impact on earnings. Someone may want to tell GS not to discuss politics in their notes anymore. I know I'm being snarky but this thread amazes me where we draw the line. At this point, 100 pages of this thread are probably taken up by an OTC penny stock. Investing is great b/c you can get as micro as talking about a single drug to talking about the possibility of the dollar losing it's reserve currency status. Ignoring politics b/c it's messy is a good way to lose (or miss out on gains). Heck, if you think Trump is going to lose, you should probably convert all your IRAs to Roths since the tax rate will likely never be lower for FBGs.

 
sporthenry said:
I don't really know how you discuss stocks without mentioning massive government intervention at this point. I guess this thread is so sophisticated that we've already priced in these policies. But as far as I'm concerned, this market is driven by two things: the coronavirus along with possible treatments / vaccines and the government response (fiscal / monetary policy). I think there is a way to discuss it without going off the rails and quite frankly, if you aren't discussing it because it's politics, you are missing out on a huge thing. Heck, I'm sure I can't talk about the upcoming election even though some have said it could have a 10% impact on earnings. Someone may want to tell GS not to discuss politics in their notes anymore. I know I'm being snarky but this thread amazes me where we draw the line. At this point, 100 pages of this thread are probably taken up by an OTC penny stock. Investing is great b/c you can get as micro as talking about a single drug to talking about the possibility of the dollar losing it's reserve currency status. Ignoring politics b/c it's messy is a good way to lose (or miss out on gains). Heck, if you think Trump is going to lose, you should probably convert all your IRAs to Roths since the tax rate will likely never be lower for FBGs.
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Bond market don’t lie and can’t be jawboned.

 
sporthenry said:
But hey, we'll make them work meaningless jobs for it. But it's not like anything that Bernie or Yang were proposing. Totally different. 
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sporthenry said:
Oh no, the thread police. So we can't discuss fiscal stimulus here? The market is literally dependent on the federal government right now. Or was it my passing comment on UBI? Either way, the implication of another stimulus bill, and an even larger one at that, has massive implications for the market. The latter discussion may not be as relevant but definitely will impact the longer term markets. But yes, let's get back to the long-term investing strategy of picking the next hot SPAC. 
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It was the Bernie / Yang comment.

 I’m not the police and think macro talk is fine, but the political forum is a cesspool and it’s nice to have a thread not polluted with the same political back and forth.

 
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