Stock Thread (35 Viewers)

[adonis]

Just wait a day.  Our feelings about the results don't matter.  Euphoria, cynicism, indifference, optimism.

The stock will be driven by the results likely to be released tomorrow regardless of investor sentiment today.

So if you're nervous and suspect bad results, sell.  If you're willing to wait it out, wait it out.  But others feelings aren't driving the price right now.  Towards the end of the day, maybe it'll go up due to folks wanting to get on board before results, or maybe it'll go down due to folks looking for one last chance to do a major short attack.   Beats me.  I'm in it to see the results.  Period.  Your feelings don't matter, nor does the euphoria of others, or the fear/cynicism of others.

 

[Capella]

And here’s something shockingly I haven’t seen discussed anywhere on any forum:

What is a slam dunk here? Say 60 patients receive the drug & 30 receive the placebo.

If you really want a read on how good the results are, what type of outcome comes from this first sample?

Like if all of the 60 are discharged and none go back to the hospital, sure slam dunk, but what’s a reasonable expectation here? THIS is something we should discuss, but I’m just a big scared idiot, apparently.

You’re no idiot at all but you aren’t James Bond at the card table either lol 

 

[fantasycurse42]

So not trying to pick a thing here but why not just sell? This is obviously stressing you out and making you uncomfortable. You’re up big if you bought that chip so why not cash out? Doesn’t make sense. 

$35-$40k profit doesn’t change my life one bit. An extra $300k, while far from a life changer, changes my process on a few things related to home searches. 

With that, I’m obviously happier with $40k than $7k. 

 

[Capella]

And here’s something shockingly I haven’t seen discussed anywhere on any forum:

What is a slam dunk here? Say 60 patients receive the drug & 30 receive the placebo.

If you really want a read on how good the results are, what type of outcome comes from this first sample?

Like if all of the 60 are discharged and none go back to the hospital, sure slam dunk, but what’s a reasonable expectation here? THIS is something we should discuss, but I’m just a big scared idiot, apparently.

Some guy on another board had a breakdown of what to expect in the numbers. He seemed knowledgeable about the topic and said he believes they will crush it. I’ll try to find the post. 

 

[Capella]

$35-$40k profit doesn’t change my life one bit. An extra $300k, while far from a life changer, changes my process on a few things related to home searches. 

With that, I’m obviously happier with $40k than $7k. 

But baseline you know you made money on this. I get why taking a hit is frustrating if it crashes but you are looking at another chance to get out with a nice profit if you want. 
 

Personally I don’t make financial decisions on whether it is life changing or not. Singles and doubles turn into runs eventually too. 

 

[fantasycurse42]

Can you just sell then so we aren't subject to another one of your anxiety rants.  Thanks

You made an incorrect statement, I responded with facts, your response is to tell me to go away. 

 

[Zegras11]

I'm finding it strange that the volume so far is a little underwhelming.  Only 80k shared traded last 7 minutes.  Can't remember seeing that in awhile.

 

[Charlie Harper]

$35-$40k profit doesn’t change my life one bit. An extra $300k, while far from a life changer, changes my process on a few things related to home searches. 

With that, I’m obviously happier with $40k than $7k. 

Pretty tone deaf, when businesses are shutting down and people losing jobs. 

 

[Capella]

And here’s something shockingly I haven’t seen discussed anywhere on any forum:

What is a slam dunk here? Say 60 patients receive the drug & 30 receive the placebo.

If you really want a read on how good the results are, what type of outcome comes from this first sample?

Like if all of the 60 are discharged and none go back to the hospital, sure slam dunk, but what’s a reasonable expectation here? THIS is something we should discuss, but I’m just a big scared idiot, apparently.

From yahoo. There are good posts there. 
 

Regarding the prospects of this week, here’s my clinical perspective:

The M/m trial may not show huge clinical differences between the leronlimab and placebo groups. By definition, most of these patients will recover with supportive measures. Therefore it will be hard to show clinical differences between the two groups that reach statistical significance. However based on BPs work on how leronlimab affects RANTES, I suspect that there will be a difference in the biochemical profiles of these patients- ie decrease in inflammatory markers, dec IL6, etc. Hopefully there will also be a trend toward better physiological parameters- less fever, less need for oxygen, shorter length of stay. Based on how big the difference is, I suspect the FDA asks them to do a phase 3. That’s not a bad thing- and if we get lucky and the results are better than expected, then maybe we get approval in this population. 

For the severe population, based on the eIND anecdotal reports, I think there will be a big difference in mortality. These patients die or suffer very high morbidity. Even a few lives saved should impact the results of the study in a meaningful way. If the results are clear, based on what’s going on in the world, I suspect we will get approved for emergency use in the severe population. And along with that, possible federal funding. 

At the end of the day, anything can happen. The market is very unpredictable and I’m wary of the political issues and manipulations by big pharma that can stifle a small company like cytodyne. However, as I’ve said many times before, I believe in the physiology, and I’m long on the stock. Covid is icing on the cake. Hiv prevention and treatment, hiv cure, tn-breast ca, other cancers and the 20 other indications will make this company a winner eventually. Not to mention potential uplisting. 
Let’s hope the next week gives us some amazing news that catapults this stock into the triple digits! Good luck to everyone.

 

[stbugs]

But baseline you know you made money on this. I get why taking a hit is frustrating if it crashes but you are looking at another chance to get out with a nice profit if you want. 
 

Personally I don’t make financial decisions on whether it is life changing or not. Singles and doubles turn into runs eventually too. 

Agree 100% with your last paragraph even if I am still on the nervous side. I’ve got some other stocks I’d like to invest in that could do really well and having a $60k profit right now would mean a good chunk to roll over into other things or wait for another downturn and push. Every investment can’t be life changing unless you’ve got a huge portion invested. If CYDY crashes, it would hurt but it’s not going to put me on food stamps. If it hits even $10 again, that would technically change my life. Not going to get me a beach front mansion but certainly not chump change. Hope for the best, but I’d like to lock in a real nice profit (should have before it popped and bought back in) this time and then see where that money goes in 5-10 years.

 

[Chaz McNulty]

You made an incorrect statement, I responded with facts, your response is to tell me to go away. 

You're a Beauty!!!  And I truly mean that in a good way.

We all feel apprehensive, but you really wear your heart on your sleeve.

 

[adonis]

I'm finding it strange that the volume so far is a little underwhelming.  Only 80k shared traded last 7 minutes.  Can't remember seeing that in awhile.

Absence of news, calm before storm.  Folks are likely waiting either for midday, end of day, or results tomorrow.

 

[Charlie Harper]

Synairgen shares soar 300% on COVID-19 treatment, but caveats abound

The data from Synairgen's drug, the inhaled formulation of interferon beta known as SNG001, come from a double-blind placebo-controlled trial that recruited 101 patients from nine specialist hospital sites in the U.K. during the peak of the virus’s grip on the country from March through May.

The data showed those who were given SNG001 had a 79% lower risk of developing severe disease compared to placebo, according to the biotech, with patients who got that drug also more than twice as likely to recover from COVID-19 than those on a dummy med.

Patient groups were evenly matched in terms of average age (56.5 years for placebo and 57.8 years for SNG001), comorbidities and average duration of COVID-19 symptoms prior to enrollment (9.8 days for placebo and 9.6 days for SNG001). 

The early data look like this: The odds of developing severe disease (e.g., requiring ventilation or resulting in death) during the treatment period (day 1 to day 16) were reduced by 79% for patients receiving SNG001 compared to placebo, although the p-value at 0.046 was very, very close to not being statistically significant.

And on a second metric, where SNG001 patients were more than twice as likely to recover (defined by the company as "no limitation of activities" or "no clinical or virological evidence of infection") over the course of the treatment period compared to those receiving placebo, this again was very close to not being significant, with a p-value of 0.043.

It also found the measure of breathlessness was “markedly reduced” in patients who received SNG001 compared to those receiving placebo (where p=0.007), and while three subjects (6%) died after being randomized to placebo, there were no deaths in the SNG001 group.

In the patients with more severe disease at time of admission (i.e. requiring treatment with supplemental oxygen), SNG001 treatment increased the likelihood of hospital discharge during the study, but the difference was not statistically significant, where p=0.096.

The median time to discharge was six days for patients treated with SNG001 and nine days for those receiving placebo.

It also found that patients receiving SNG001 “appeared to be more than twice as likely to have recovered by the end of the treatment period,” but again this was not statistically significant, with p=0.062.

“However by day 28, patients receiving SNG001 treatment had statistically significantly better odds of recovery," (where p=0.017), the biotech said.

“Interestingly, the efficacy analyses indicate there is no evidence of an association between the SNG001 positive treatment effects and prior duration of COVID-19 symptoms,” the biotech, which spun out of Southampton University in Southern England, added in a release.

“Further analysis will be conducted over the coming weeks and reported in due course.” It has not been published in a peer-reviewed journal, and, without full data, there are still many caveats as to how well this helped patients.  

Interferon beta is produced when host cells get a viral infection; Synairgen uses this protein in an inhaled formulation, which means it passes directly into the lungs of patients with coronavirus using a nebulizer in the hope it will stimulate an immune response.

The drug had once been partnered through U.K. Big Pharma AstraZeneca, but a failed midstage test in asthma patients three years ago saw it cut that deal loose, returning rights back to the biotech.

Richard Marsden, CEO of Synairgen, said: “We are all delighted with the trial results announced today, which showed that SNG001 greatly reduced the number of hospitalised COVID-19 patients who progressed from ‘requiring oxygen’ to ‘requiring ventilation.’ It also showed that patients who received SNG001 were at least twice as likely to recover to the point where their everyday activities were not compromised through having been infected by SARS-CoV-2.

“In addition, SNG001 has significantly reduced breathlessness, one of the main symptoms of severe COVID-19. This assessment of SNG001 in COVID-19 patients could signal a major breakthrough in the treatment of hospitalised COVID-19 patients. Our efforts are now focused on working with the regulators and other key groups to progress this potential COVID-19 treatment as rapidly as possible.”

Shares in the biotech soared 300% in early U.K. trading Monday morning on the news.

 

[-OZ-]

When the Dow leads, Amazon and other CV+ tech stocks (the ones the lead during the crisis) tend to lag.

Yep

Sea limited down last week. Up over 7% today.

Tempted to sell but can't (cash hasn't settled)

 

[stbugs]

Pretty tone deaf, when businesses are shutting down and people losing jobs. 

Agree here as well and before I retire the $60k in profit I have now could turn into a true life changing number. It’s certainly not an amount I’d act like wouldn’t be helpful. That’s a couple years of college costs. Huge deal.

I’m not going to lie, this year sucks for everyone, some a lot more than others, but stock market wise this year has been a banner year for me. It’s really weird to put it in context of how bad it’s been for most. Honestly, the market has helped me not go completely stir crazy or get a bit depressed.

 

[PennState-JD]

Anyone having issues with Ameritrade?  The site won't load and the app is hella slow.

It is loading but takes about 10 seconds to get there. 

 

[stbugs]

Yep

Sea limited down last week. Up over 7% today.

Tempted to sell but can't (cash hasn't settled)

Still don’t know why I didn’t buy at $107. I think I’m holding on to the cash I’ve got. Only about 10% cash which feels too small.

 

[beef]

NKLA down 21% 

Diluted by warrant conversions?  I sold off all mine after it rebounded a bit from a huge drop a couple of weeks ago.  

 

[pmedina]

Back in the onion at 9.99. Can’t help it. 

 

[Acrobat7]

On a non-CYDY note, GOLD is flirting with a new 52 week high

Same goes for FNV. NEM ain’t doing badly either. 

 

[fantasycurse42]

From yahoo. There are good posts there. 
 

The first sentence is really something I’ve spent a decent amount of time thinking about. The M2M, on a small sample size, I think it’s going to be very difficult to show a huge lift due to cases being mild. 

 

[Capella]

The first sentence is really something I’ve spent a decent amount of time thinking about. The M2M, on a small sample size, I think it’s going to be very difficult to show a huge lift due to cases being mild. 

I think they have a way to show difference in BP, oxygen levels, stay time in hospital and other factors. It might take some reading into and won’t be a headline pop like 8 died on the placebo/0 on treatment would be but these have been done before. 

 

[fantasycurse42]

I think they have a way to show difference in BP, oxygen levels, stay time in hospital and other factors. It might take some reading into and won’t be a headline pop like 8 died on the placebo/0 on treatment would be but these have been done before. 

I think a lot of the M2M is more of a Q/A and baselines with improvements (outside of basic stuff like temps).

I.E. shortness of breath rate 1-3, cough rate 1-3, throat, etc... 

 

[Don Hutson]

Generally, what percentage of mild/moderate become critical/severe within 28 days?  If the treatment arm has zero M2M patients becoming severe/critical and the placebo arm has 2 or 3 M2M becoming severe/critical, that would seem significant.  But I'm not a scientist I just play one on this board.

 

[adonis]

The first sentence is really something I’ve spent a decent amount of time thinking about. The M2M, on a small sample size, I think it’s going to be very difficult to show a huge lift due to cases being mild. 

Despite it being folks with mild-to-moderate illnesses, they'll still have symptoms.  You can get statistics on what % of folks had symptoms reduced on LR vs placebo, recovery time, lingering symptoms, blood indicators, etc.

If you can tell a story that in X% of patients overall given LR had better outcomes than those on placebo, without bad outcomes, you're in good shape.  

The endpoints you select for M/M are different and less stark than s/c, but you can still show statistical significance if there is one.  If there is, telling that story is fairly straightforward.

 

[The General]

What a day so far. It works much better when I don't watch.

 

[Jayrok]

I'm finding it strange that the volume so far is a little underwhelming.  Only 80k shared traded last 7 minutes.  Can't remember seeing that in awhile.

I think the bear raid that happened on June 30 has investors more cautious this time around.  Shares were scooped up daily the week prior to that big drop.  People were anticipating good news.  This time everyone is waiting to see results.  No more words.  All investors are hoping for good results.  

I'd like to see a positive PR tomorrow and see a few whales swoop in and start swallowing up all this krill.  

 

[fantasycurse42]

Generally, what percentage of mild/moderate become critical/severe within 28 days?  If the treatment arm has zero M2M patients becoming severe/critical and the placebo arm has 2 or 3 M2M becoming severe/critical, that would seem significant.  But I'm not a scientist I just play one on this board.

I absolutely agree with this. If we see the treatment arm have zero cases advance to severe, it’s a home run, but I feel like there are very few scenarios beyond that, that would be indicative of a home run. It’s difficult to show statistical significance on a small sample size with a mild audience. 

 

[Terminalxylem]

Pretty tone deaf, when businesses are shutting down and people losing jobs. 

The market as a whole appears pretty tone deaf, and I’m not sure an investment thread during a health crisis is the best place to find compassionate posts in any event.

 

[bshell27]

Rookie question.  Will setting a stop loss for tomorrow do any good if results are mediocre?  Or does it fly by without completing the order?

 

[Capella]

Rookie question.  Will setting a stop loss for tomorrow do any good if results are mediocre?  Or does it fly by without completing the order?

If it’s terrible it’ll fly by. You’ll get yours sold but probably not at the price you stopped at. Imo 

 

[FreeBaGeL]

How much has their share price gone up since their covid trials?  CYDY is up quite a bit, just a slower burn

A lot.  52 week low of $5.50.  On a steady rise since mid-April before this morning's moonshot.

 

[djmich]

Rookie question.  Will setting a stop loss for tomorrow do any good if results are mediocre?  Or does it fly by without completing the order?

It will fly by.  Difficulty exiting will be exacerbated because OTC and liquidity not as good.

 

[ghostguy123]

Feels weird, I am about 95% invested between my brokerage and roth right now.  By the highest I have been since I opened these accounts a few months ago.

Bought a bit more PPL, PM, XOM today.  

 

[stbugs]

The market as a whole appears pretty tone deaf, and I’m not sure an investment thread during a health crisis is the best place to find compassionate posts in any event.

True. It’s no different than the discussions about MLB and NBA that will happen. This thread is a place for a lot of us to talk about something else for a bit. Doesn’t mean we can try not to be ##### either.

 

[Don Hutson]

Rookie question.  Will setting a stop loss for tomorrow do any good if results are mediocre?  Or does it fly by without completing the order?

Official news won't come during trading hours.  A leak could happen but not likely.

 

[adonis]

I absolutely agree with this. If we see the treatment arm have zero cases advance to severe, it’s a home run, but I feel like there are very few scenarios beyond that, that would be indicative of a home run. It’s difficult to show statistical significance on a small sample size with a mild audience. 

Mild/Moderate - if you have a drug that's effective, it's pretty straightforward to show a difference in symptoms after giving the drug in group with the drug vs placebo.  

Think about Tamiflu - symptoms of the flu for most are mild to moderate, but if you pick 100 folks and give 60 of them tamiflu and 40 saline, you'd clearly see changes in the duration and severity of symptoms in the group given Tamiflu vs placebo as the days go on.  

Of course, it all depends on how well the drug works, but that's what we're studying right?

For exmaple, think about a test that detects viral load in all patients.  Do you think it'd be tough even in mild-moderate populations to show viral load decreases in those given LR vs placebo days after the drug was given?

 

[General Malaise]

Anyone having issues with Ameritrade?  The site won't load and the app is hella slow.

Yes. Very wonky on my phone. 

 

[Shula-holic]

Feels weird, I am about 95% invested between my brokerage and roth right now.  By the highest I have been since I opened these accounts a few months ago.

Bought a bit more PPL, PM, XOM today.  

I considered selling some PPL around $26.10 late last week hoping for a pullback like today but just decided to leave it alone.  Hindsight is always 20/20 but I'm pretty happy with my average cost as is.  

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Diluted by warrant conversions?  I sold off all mine after it rebounded a bit from a huge drop a couple of weeks ago.  

Yes.  Warrants are up 13% while the common shares are down 20%.  The arbitrage gap has basically closed now.

 

[eaganwildcats]

Rookie question.  Will setting a stop loss for tomorrow do any good if results are mediocre?  Or does it fly by without completing the order?

Is this something that could be released during trading hours? If not, and is released prior to open, will likely gap one way or the other and thus the stop loss would just trigger at a low price (assuming the worst) upon open. 

 

[Charlie Harper]

First human trial of AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine shows promise

(Reuters) - AstraZeneca's experimental COVID-19 vaccine was safe and produced an immune response in early-stage clinical trials in healthy volunteers, data showed on Monday, with the strongest response seen in people who received two doses. The vaccine, called AZD1222 and being developed by AstraZeneca and scientists at Britain's University of Oxford, did not prompt any serious side effects and elicited antibody and T-cell immune responses, according to trial results published in The Lancet medical journal.

"There is still much work to be done before we can confirm if our vaccine will help manage the COVID-19 pandemic, but these early results hold promise," vaccine developer Sarah Gilbert said.

"We still do not know how strong an immune response we need to provoke to effectively protect against SARS-CoV-2 infection."

Gilbert said researchers needed to learn more about COVID-19 and continue late stage trials which have already commenced.

AstraZeneca shares spiked higher, but then gave up some gains, to last trade up 0.4% on the day

AstraZeneca's is among the leading vaccine candidates against a pandemic that has claimed more than 600,000 lives, alongside others in mid and late-stage trials.

These include shots being developed by China's Sinovac Biotech, another from state-owned Chinese firm Sinopharm, and one from the U.S. biotech firm Moderna.

AstraZeneca has signed agreements with governments around the world to supply the vaccine should it prove effective and gain regulatory approval. The company has said it will not seek to profit from the vaccine during the pandemic.

Researchers said the vaccine caused minor side effects more frequently than a control group, but some of these could be reduced by taking paracetamol, with no serious adverse events from the vaccine.

AZD1222 was developed by Oxford university and licensed to AstraZeneca, which has put it into large-scale, late-stage trials to test its efficacy. It has also already signed deals to produce and supply over 2 billion doses of the shot.

The new trial included 1,077 healthy adults aged 18-55 years with no history of COVID-19.

"Today’s data increases our confidence that the vaccine will work and allows us to continue our plans to manufacture the vaccine at scale for broad and equitable access around the world," said Mene Pangalos, Executive Vice President of BioPharmaceuticals Research and Development at AstraZeneca.

Seems like AZN is just behind MRNA. Vaccine safe with some sudd effects that can be managed with another drug.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

AZN is too legit of a company.  Not much pump verbiage in there.

 

[Don Hutson]

One thing to remember is that we are not entirely flying in the dark like other trials.  We have seen the results of over 70 eIND patients so we can be semi-confident that it works.  Other trials don't have near that much anecdotal evidence so the trial results are a complete mystery until they are disclosed.

 

[LoadLetterPaper]

IBIO up 56% today   and climbing

 

[fantasycurse42]

One thing to remember is that we are not entirely flying in the dark like other trials.  We have seen the results of over 70 eIND patients so we can be semi-confident that it works.  Other trials don't have near that much anecdotal evidence so the trial results are a complete mystery until they are disclosed.

We have an understanding of the MOA for severe and how it reduces inflammation and restores a normal immune system. I guess the expectation is that the MOA is similar in M2M which will prevent someone from becoming more severe?

 

[bshell27]

EVSI has been decent. Forgot who mentioned it. 

 

[Capella]

One thing to remember is that we are not entirely flying in the dark like other trials.  We have seen the results of over 70 eIND patients so we can be semi-confident that it works.  Other trials don't have near that much anecdotal evidence so the trial results are a complete mystery until they are disclosed.

This is why I’m not that worried. The risk that this is a total failure is relatively low imo. But I’ll be pleased with 10-12 bucks a share. I don’t have expectations of 85 a share or anything. 

 

[unckeyherb]

This is why I’m not that worried. The risk that this is a total failure is relatively low imo. But I’ll be pleased with 10-12 bucks a share. I don’t have expectations of 85 a share or anything. 

This is generally where I'm at as well.

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

This is our trial for the M2M.

NCT043434651

Primary Outcome Measures:

Clinical Improvement as assessed by change in total symptom score (for fever, myalgia, dyspnea and cough) [ Time Frame: Day 14 ]

Note: The total score per patient ranges from 0 to 12 points. Each symptom is graded from 0 to 3. [0=none, 1=mild, 2=moderate, and 3=severe]. Higher scores mean a worse outcome.

Secondary Outcome Measures :

Time to clinical resolution (TTCR) [ Time Frame: Day 14 ]

Change from baseline in National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) [ Time Frame: Days 3, 7, and 14 ]

This score is based on 7 clinical parameters (respiration rate, oxygen saturation, any supplemental oxygen, temperature, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, level of consciousness). Higher scores mean a worse outcome.

Change from baseline in pulse oxygen saturation (SpO2) [ Time Frame: Days 3, 7, and 14 ]

Change from baseline in the patient's health status on a 7-category ordinal scale [ Time Frame: Days 3, 7, and 14 ]

A 7-category ordinal scale of patient health status ranges from: 1) Death; 2) Hospitalized, on invasive mechanical ventilation or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO); 3) Hospitalized, on non-invasive ventilation or high flow oxygen devices; 4) Hospitalized, requiring supplemental oxygen; 5) Hospitalized, not requiring supplemental oxygen; 6) Not hospitalized, limitation on activities; 7) Not hospitalized, no limitations on activities.

Lower scores mean a worse outcome.

Incidence of hospitalization [ Time Frame: Day 14 ]

Duration (days) of hospitalization [ Time Frame: Day 14 ]

Incidence of mechanical ventilation supply [ Time Frame: Day 14 ]

Duration (days) of mechanical ventilation supply [ Time Frame: Day 14 ]

Incidence of oxygen use [ Time Frame: Day 14 ]

Duration (days) of oxygen use [ Time Frame: Day 14 ]

Mortality rate [ Time Frame: Day 14 ]

Time to return to normal activity [ Time Frame: Day 14 ]

Other Outcome Measures:

Change in size of lesion area by chest radiograph or CT [ Time Frame: Day 14 ]

Change from baseline in serum cytokine and chemokine levels [ Time Frame: Days 3, 7, and 14 ]

Change from baseline in CCR5 receptor occupancy levels for Tregs and macrophages [ Time Frame: Days 3, 7, and 14 ]

Change from baseline in CD3+, CD4+ and CD8+ T cell count [ Time Frame: Days 3, 7, and 14 ]