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Stock Thread (36 Viewers)

BassNBrew said:
Bless you @-OZ-, I could't do it.  

Enforce the laws (equally) or change the laws.  If it's listed and they aren't doing anything about it, they need to keep their nose out of any investment you make that is listed (assuming you are following the other laws).
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I will say (and my boss concurs) that I won't raise the issue if I happen to see a non-conflict holding. But their supervisor might raise it before I see it.

 
-OZ- said:
I think this is accurate.

Might be a good time to buy tobacco stocks
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Other than PM what are some tobacco stonks to look at?

I bought a reasonable chunk of PM when it hit 70 a short while back.  Wish I had bought more.

 
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[icon] said:
@Todem no concerns on Intel moving running build v buy analysis and considering outsourcing production? That would seem to be a huge blow to their core value. 

At the same time there is a significant motivation on a federal level to maintain independence with semiconductor engineering and production. Have to think there will be some support from our govt to push them to stay stateside. 

Thoughts? 

 

Also, would love a rundown / update on your list and where you might still see strong mid term plays at current valuations. 
 

for ease of reference: 

Todem stock list 

AAPL

AMZN

GOOGL

EMR

CSCO

T

EXC

LMT

PG

JPM

INTC

MSFT

GLPI

BA (we were buying aggresively at 115, 105 and 100)

BMY

TGT

VZ

PEO

BLMN (trading this)

TXRH (Traded this)

CCL

DAL - Have not bought this yet

FDX

DFS

PFE

PPL

CSCO

GCX

ADX
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I think the move was a big overreaction, but both AAPL making their own chips and AMD doing so well in the gaming space are big headwinds.

 
CR69 said:
I’ve seen this brought up for years but don’t you think they’d just buy existing companies? It’s what they did with vape pens, right?
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There are $80+ billion in municipal bonds in this country still tied to big tobacco profits.  They sit closer to the ear of the government then any of the current marijuana companies could hope for over a 50 year time line.

When it came to vape pens, big tobacco still was able to use the media and government laws and ordinances to condemn new competition while securing their own alternative patents.

The packaging and distribution advantages big tobacco currently has would blow any other competitor advantage out of the water.  Quality being #1.  

Also, based on sentiments from the Busch family, I think BUD would figure itself into a federal distribution some way, some how, almost immediately.  

 
Todem said:
It was beautiful.....bought and bought and bought. Overweighted the position a little today. 

Tremendous stock....grows the dividend about 5% a year.....great financials, low debt, fundamentals are excellent. Love when this happens. Overblown short sighted news...you gotta pounce on this stuff. Also love when firms revise price targets down.....they have no clue. Seriously....most of them have no clue.
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I bought a bunch more too. I'm not going to lie. I owned intel before the drop and it was painful but honestly--the way I see it--the loss is only hypotethical until I actaully sell it for less than I bought it. With that said--I'm actually more happy to be able to get more of it and lower my average cost. I'm happy taking a hypothetical loss in exchange for the opportunity at a much larger future gain.    

 
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hooter311 said:
There are $80+ billion in municipal bonds in this country still tied to big tobacco profits.  They sit closer to the ear of the government then any of the current marijuana companies could hope for over a 50 year time line.

When it came to vape pens, big tobacco still was able to use the media and government laws and ordinances to condemn new competition while securing their own alternative patents.

The packaging and distribution advantages big tobacco currently has would blow any other competitor advantage out of the water.  Quality being #1.  

Also, based on sentiments from the Busch family, I think BUD would figure itself into a federal distribution some way, some how, almost immediately.  
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There are some very large cannabis companies though with production and distribution already in place. Why reinvent the wheel when they can just buy them out and reduce competition? We see it in the food and beverage industry all the time which is why companies like Pepsi, Coke, Kraft, Nestle, etc. all own a ton of different brands. 
 

For example there are only a few brands of vape cartridges I buy because of the quality, selection and reliability. It would be much easier for Altria to just buy one of them. 
 

On the Busch thing, sounds like one of the descendants started his own company and nobody from the family is currently on the BUD board so I don’t see what they would have to do with anything. I only did a quick search though, did I miss something?

 
cosjobs said:
Got a link or something? I'm very reluctant to take that path without more info. Nothing personal.
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https://cointelegraph.com/news/at-this-rate-grayscale-will-own-34-of-all-bitcoin-by-january

Note: grayscale did temporarily pause buying Bitcoin about 3 weeks ago as required by regulators.

Eta: https://www.forbes.com/sites/haileylennon/2020/07/22/bitcoin-meets-banking-as-us-bank-regulator-permits-cryptocurrency-custody/

This also happened last week, putting increased pressure on demand.  Especially if it starts to build momentum, previous large jumps will only be compounded.

 
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Baseball Is Back. Online Sports Betting Could Hit Record Levels.

Barron's

Last Updated: July 25, 2020 at 12:03 p.m. ET

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/online-sports-betting-reaps-big-gains-from-resumption-of-major-league-baseball-51595607739?mod=newsviewer_click_seemore

Sports betting sites in New Jersey were aggressive in offering attractive odds to bettors on the opening games for Major League Baseball on Thursday, according to an analysis by Morgan Stanley analyst Tom Allen.

Baseball is the first of the major professional team sports to begin play with the NBA and NHL due to resume in about a week. Allen has written earlier that sports betting could hit record levels as major sports resume due to pent-up demand and abbreviated seasons that will magnify the importance of each game.

That projection could be panning out. A spokesman for DraftKings said the number of bets on Thursday night’s game between the New York Yankees and Washington Nationals was the highest for a baseball game in the history of DraftKings Sportsbook. The previous record was the seventh game of last year’s World Series, between the Nationals and the Houston Astros.

DraftKings (ticker: DKNG), which went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company in April, and FanDuel, majority owned by U.K.’s Flutter Entertainment (PDYPY), are the two leaders in the New Jersey online sports betting market.

DraftKings shares were up 15 cents Friday, at $36.36, and have doubled since late April. The company has a market value of more than $12 billion, making it one of the highest-valued gambling companies in the country.

Allen found that MLB pricing was “customer friendly” on the point, or run, spread with an “overround” of 4% against 4.3% for the National Football League season opener in 2019. The overround is a betting profit measure with 4% meaning that bettors wagered $104 and got back $100. Allen didn’t find much deviation in odds among the New Jersey operators.

By comparison, Las Vegas slot machines had a win percentage of about 8% in 2019.

“A lower number can be read as more aggressive as it represents lower gross win margins (hold) for operators, though it may lead to better volumes as it reflects a more attractive price to customers,” Allen wrote of the MLB betting lines.

New Jersey has the largest and most important online sports betting market in the country and operators have been aggressive in the state in attracting and retaining customers.

Allen also looked at the money line and over/under betting lines on the MLB games. For money line bets, the average overround was 3.4%, against 4.1% on the NFL opener and for the over/under, the average overround was 4.6% against 4.7% at the NFL opener.

There were no betting allowed on the opening ceremonial pitch in Washington by Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. His pitch was wild and nowhere near the plate. Those kind of “prop” bets aren’t legal in New Jersey and other states.

Correction & Amplification:
The opening day game between the New York Yankees and the Washington Nationals was a record for the online sports book of DraftKings in terms of the number of bets. It was not a record in terms of the handle, or the amount bet.
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Call me crazy but sports betting is legal in how many states? DKNG is offered in I believe 7 states? $13bn market cap for 7 states? The article itself said that it's a race to the bottom in terms of fees. It could work out long-term and valuations could stay elevated in the near-term but given a big majority of the US population still can't legally bet, seems like they're missing this great window to bet on sports. 

 
sporthenry said:
Call me crazy but sports betting is legal in how many states? DKNG is offered in I believe 7 states? $13bn market cap for 7 states? The article itself said that it's a race to the bottom in terms of fees. It could work out long-term and valuations could stay elevated in the near-term but given a big majority of the US population still can't legally bet, seems like they're missing this great window to bet on sports. 
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Yeah, but how big will it grow when more states allow it? 

Now, I'm writing this from a state that still doesn't use the lottery. It will be a long time before bama legalizes gambling or MJ. But most states are far more progressive.

 
[icon] said:
Is GBTC the best BTC play on the open market? 
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Yes. They currently hold roughly 3% of entire supply.  Each share worth roughly  1/1030 of a btc.  Currently trading at like a 13% premium.  It was closer to a 40% premium a year ago.

Grayscale's ethereum trust trades at like 775% premium so plenty of room to grow there too.

 
hooter311 said:
Yes. They currently hold roughly 3% of entire supply.  Each share worth roughly  1/1030 of a btc.  Currently trading at like a 13% premium.  It was closer to a 40% premium a year ago.

Grayscale's ethereum trust trades at like 775% premium so plenty of room to grow there too.
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The price I see in a over $10k. Is there a $10 version based on your 1/1030th?

LOL, never mind, I hit the back button and it went back to the Nasdaq index which happens to be almost exactly 1000x the value. 10,363 versus 10.38. Weird coincidence and I didn’t notice. 

 
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Anyone have strong feelings on Healthcare REITs?    A lot are based around nursing home/senior living with a sprinkling of other healthcare buildings.  I can see real estate taking a beating but don’t really see healthcare/senior sector being impacted too much.  Any of the teledoc movement likely doesn’t impact the senior population and COVID or not, 65+ has to live somewhere.

Seems like these REITs are still down ~50% from the highs and pay in the 5-8% dividend range.  Considering SBRA, VTR, WELL and NHI.

Thoughts?

 
hooter311 said:
Yes. They currently hold roughly 3% of entire supply.  Each share worth roughly  1/1030 of a btc.  Currently trading at like a 13% premium.  It was closer to a 40% premium a year ago.

Grayscale's ethereum trust trades at like 775% premium so plenty of room to grow there too.
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Maybe a dumb question - but are their any bitcoin specific tax issue in owning either of these ETFs?  Similar to how gold is taxed depending on how you own it.

 
-OZ- said:
Yeah, but how big will it grow when more states allow it? 

Now, I'm writing this from a state that still doesn't use the lottery. It will be a long time before bama legalizes gambling or MJ. But most states are far more progressive.
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I don't disagree but when does that happen? States will legalize it. I'd argue most of that is priced in. Just a matter of timing but everyone is expecting this massive pop on sports being played now when betting only reaches a small percentage of the population. 

I also think there is a chance it's not similar to MJ where a lot of illicit gambling stays operational especially if taxes are too high. You will open up the retail gambler and I presume that will be easier to attract than MJ. But the pros are going to shop around and play different places for the best odds. Perhaps retail is larger margin but may be like DFS where volume shoots up at first then people realize they're stupid and stop playing. 

 
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General Malaise said:
Gold and silver on a tear....wow.
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Low rates, the government firing up the printing presses like no tomorrow, China tensions, the reality that the virus is going to be having a heavy impact on our lives for many more months, an election that has the potential to create turmoil and tension in this country coming up in a couple of months, general market uncertainty, global demand for metals going up as many countries are firing up their presses..etc.  People like @fantasycurse42 (he more on the mining stocks) and myself (more promoting purchasing the hard assets) have been pushing people to purchase gold and silver for a few years to balance their portofolios. I know of a few posters that listened so thats good.   Silver also has the benefit of being an industrial metal that is used in a lot of electronic devices--so this WFH trend could propel it even further.  With that said--at some point--there will be days where there is profit taking--so there will probably be better days to jump in for those who want to.  However--I can tell you that not only are the prices of the metals high--but most of my friends that are vendors in the precious metal trade are telling me that the premiums over spot to buy them are crazy high right now. Far more buyers than there are sellers according to what they are telling me. 

 
In MJ at $13.01 for a small nibble. Going to DCA average into this one over the next few weeks. Ex dividend date will be in mid September FYI. 

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
Low rates, the government firing up the printing presses like no tomorrow, China tensions, the reality that the virus is going to be having a heavy impact on our lives for many more months, an election that has the potential to create turmoil and tension in this country coming up in a couple of months, general market uncertainty, global demand for metals going up as many countries are firing up their presses..etc.  People like @fantasycurse42 (he more on the mining stocks) and myself (more promoting purchasing the hard assets) have been pushing people to purchase gold and silver for a few years to balance their portofolios. I know of a few posters that listened so thats good.   Silver also has the benefit of being an industrial metal that is used in a lot of electronic devices--so this WFH trend could propel it even further.  With that said--at some point--there will be days where there is profit taking--so there will probably be better days to jump in for those who want to.  However--I can tell you that not only are the prices of the metals high--but most of my friends that are vendors in the precious metal trade are telling me that the premiums over spot to buy them are crazy high right now. Far more buyers than there are sellers according to what they are telling me. 
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To me with the miners it comes down to two things:

1) Tax implications

2) Gains

If the rock gains 25%, I expect the miners to gain 50%. On the flips side, I would expect a similar correlation. 

 
Lacey said:
Anyone have strong feelings on Healthcare REITs?    A lot are based around nursing home/senior living with a sprinkling of other healthcare buildings.  I can see real estate taking a beating but don’t really see healthcare/senior sector being impacted too much.  Any of the teledoc movement likely doesn’t impact the senior population and COVID or not, 65+ has to live somewhere.

Seems like these REITs are still down ~50% from the highs and pay in the 5-8% dividend range.  Considering SBRA, VTR, WELL and NHI.

Thoughts?
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I have owned MPW for income clients for several years. Check them out. Only down 10% YTD. They buy and develop medial properties to lease to the medical community with long term Net Leases and they also provide mortgage financing for medical offices as well. So they have their hand in both collecting rent and interest on lending. They are spicy. But their margins are thick (37% plus margins) debt to income around 50% (due to lending arm). Fundamentals are ok not amazing. Again they take on debt risk for margins and income. Dividend is solid north of 5.5% and grows at annual rate of about 4%.

That is what I got for that Medical REIT sector for ya.

 
Lacey said:
I understand the fear.  Guess my question is where else do the tens of millions of seniors go?
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My thoughts as well. I have WELL, although I'm not sure I could sell you on it right now. I know someone else here likes OHI. 

 
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Steeler said:
Maybe a dumb question - but are their any bitcoin specific tax issue in owning either of these ETFs?  Similar to how gold is taxed depending on how you own it.
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Not a dumb question, because I'm not quite sure of the answer.  My current holdings are all sitting in IRAs.

 
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