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Stock Thread (40 Viewers)

Capella said:
I’m overstating it a bit but it seems like Amz misses almost every report now. If I was a short-term trader I would be looking to unload it today too I think. 
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I believe the only report I recall them really missing on recently was last quarter. That was the first revenue miss. Still 27% revenue growth but not as high as they guided. Other misses on earnings have happened but they were hey we spent X billion on COVID safety or we spent $X billion on building out logistics/our own fleet. I do think it’s beat down so much that it should snap back if they meet but who knows. GOOG was already close to its 52 week high. We’ll see because this is not a great time but they look cheap right now.

 
cosjobs said:
I think incremental share buying kind of killed the split play, since small-time investors can already buy in for $30 or whatever.
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I buy it on the companies revenue growth and cash flow and growth rate…..splits mean nothing to me long term.

 
So we did all our FB buying today and also nibbled into AMZN a little today.

Now I can enjoy my birthday. 
 

I do love days like today. Nothing like fire sales to take advantage of long term.

 
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Am I too much get off my lawn to think the metaverse will be a massive flop on all fronts, both from innovation, revenue generation, and just user experience?  

Maybe there are some edge cases like pr0n that make sense, but those are already out there and are sort of meh.  

 
cosjobs said:
I think incremental share buying kind of killed the split play, since small-time investors can already buy in for $30 or whatever.
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I mention this every time splits come up but one reason I like them is it makes options more accessible. I sell covered calls constantly on a lot of my positions, which is especially helpful during times like these, and splits make it more affordable to own shares in blocks of 100.

 
culdeus said:
Am I too much get off my lawn to think the metaverse will be a massive flop on all fronts, both from innovation, revenue generation, and just user experience?  

Maybe there are some edge cases like pr0n that make sense, but those are already out there and are sort of meh.  
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I’m with you. I liken it to 3D TVs, pot stocks and even sports betting stocks. Analysts laid out addressable markets where every home would have one, every person in the US would start smoking and every person watching a game would start betting during it. None of those things happened yet so the stock prices are way off highs.

I think there are people who will live in the Metaverse to some degree but most people are still going to want to be outside in the real world. I do understand some enhanced experiences like having your house scanned like MTTR and shopping on Amazon or Wayfair and being able to put your potential new furniture in place be. You can kind of do that now with your phone by taking a picture, but it could be better and you could walk around it. I definitely think that there are some multi-billion dollar valuations that are assuming a lot.

 
stbugs said:
I’m with you. I liken it to 3D TVs, pot stocks and even sports betting stocks. Analysts laid out addressable markets where every home would have one, every person in the US would start smoking and every person watching a game would start betting during it. None of those things happened yet so the stock prices are way off highs.

I think there are people who will live in the Metaverse to some degree but most people are still going to want to be outside in the real world. I do understand some enhanced experiences like having your house scanned like MTTR and shopping on Amazon or Wayfair and being able to put your potential new furniture in place be. You can kind of do that now with your phone by taking a picture, but it could be better and you could walk around it. I definitely think that there are some multi-billion dollar valuations that are assuming a lot.
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Commercial use in different lines of business. The Metaverse and the use of Virtual Reality is going far deeper than just in home personal use. 

The story of this for FB is so deep.....this sell-off is the opportunity to get in to a company that plans on leading the way into this. 

They are trading at valuations that represent long term value.....big time.  

The stock is being flushed down the toilet........I love being a plumber here. 

 
stbugs said:
I’m with you. I liken it to 3D TVs, pot stocks and even sports betting stocks. Analysts laid out addressable markets where every home would have one, every person in the US would start smoking and every person watching a game would start betting during it. None of those things happened yet so the stock prices are way off highs.

I think there are people who will live in the Metaverse to some degree but most people are still going to want to be outside in the real world. I do understand some enhanced experiences like having your house scanned like MTTR and shopping on Amazon or Wayfair and being able to put your potential new furniture in place be. You can kind of do that now with your phone by taking a picture, but it could be better and you could walk around it. I definitely think that there are some multi-billion dollar valuations that are assuming a lot.
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$500M was spent on virtual real estate last year, and $85M in January.  Now that's a drop in the bucket in the grand scheme of things, but there is a ton of money being invested into the space.  Brands are looking to get involved, there is the associated crypto play with many of them, and investment and R&D is increasing.

I don't get it, and I think it's a horrible thing for society (get outside, people!).  But there sure looks to be money to be made in this space.

 
culdeus said:
Am I too much get off my lawn to think the metaverse will be a massive flop on all fronts, both from innovation, revenue generation, and just user experience?  

Maybe there are some edge cases like pr0n that make sense, but those are already out there and are sort of meh.  
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The metaverse as a concept is something to be bullish on, but I doubt Facebook is the winner. The future of this stuff is much more likely to occur on decentralized blockchains than under an increasingly unpopular Web2 company.

 
Desert_Power said:
The metaverse as a concept is something to be bullish on, but I doubt Facebook is the winner. The future of this stuff is much more likely to occur on decentralized blockchains than under an increasingly unpopular Web2 company.
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This. The leader in selling your data is not who the people want to be in charge of the Metaverse.

 
SFBayDuck said:
$500M was spent on virtual real estate last year, and $85M in January.  Now that's a drop in the bucket in the grand scheme of things, but there is a ton of money being invested into the space.  Brands are looking to get involved, there is the associated crypto play with many of them, and investment and R&D is increasing.

I don't get it, and I think it's a horrible thing for society (get outside, people!).  But there sure looks to be money to be made in this space.
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Exactly. I don’t like all this either....but I am a Gen X guy.....this is a different generation and there is a lot of money to be made in the space. 

 
Todem said:
This market is so volatile right now.......again have a list of stocks you want long term. You are 99% never gonna catch the bottom. If the price is a value take a bite and buckle in for the long term. 

Mega Tech is on a fire sale (NVDA, SHOP, AMD, ADSK) There is so much long term value in those names right now.....but they can and probably will whipsaw back and forth here for several weeks, months. So trying to time the bottom is a fools game. I have been buying dips.....but they get pushed lower. At some point we will stop and just be long. 

Monday was an extraordinary day with that 1000 point swing on the Dow and now we are seeing that everyday this week pretty much.

Once the market fully digests the “recalibration” of monetary policy I expect this market later in the year to be a coiled spring and finish 6-8% higher than where we started. Maybe higher if the sell off goes deeper.  I am seeing so much nervousness just by all the price action on growth names. And these are names that are built for high growth and free cash flow. 

One area of the market that has been very resilient is the industrials, utilities and staples. It is very hard to find much value there right now. That is the leg down I am still waiting for to finish deploying the remaining cash I have. The proverbial “throwing in the towel” moment. 

This market will be sideways for a while here till late 3rd quarter in my estimation. We may see a great rally followed by another sell off rinse and repeat until things are fully settled in with the Fed’s hikes etc. 

The fundamentals though are strong and that is the key to all this. We are not having a double digit return on the index's this year (most likely) but positive returns are in view in my opinion simply based on the nature of why we have corrected thus far. Black Swains aside (Covid and War). 
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The bold matches our financial advisor team's outlook for 2022.  In addition to industrials, utilities and staples is financials.  In addition they forecasted these four areas to be potential high soaring markets after 2022 and beyond.  They projected that the high soring tech market is over, for example they had AAPL at 8% this year and MSFT at 12% and that would be more normal going forward.  But the industrials, utilities, staples and energy are the markets that could kind of replace them and soar past normal type numbers.

Todem said:
I am speculating on their complete pivot into streaming and a massive comeback with theme park revenue moving forward from the pandemic. It looks expensive at it’s current numbers.....but the forward multiple looks a lot better based on guidance. If that guidance does not come through.....well then we will be wrong...and the market will decide as it always does. 

When it comes to the streaming landscape I have em ranked:

1. Netflix

2. Disney Plus

3. Amazon

Those three have the biggest runway towards streaming growth.....again in my opinion.  Disney also has other streams of revenue as well as Amazon. The only pure play is NFLX but Disney Plus’s growth prospects are very 2nd 3rd inning like Netflix IMO. 
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It's hard for me, but in the spirit of some of the posts I need to not put too much money into the sexy tech stocks and wait for that third leg you mentioned and get good prices on industrials, utilities staples and financials.  Do you have a top 3 for for those markets?

PS.  Happy 52nd!

 
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culdeus said:
Am I too much get off my lawn to think the metaverse will be a massive flop on all fronts, both from innovation, revenue generation, and just user experience?  

Maybe there are some edge cases like pr0n that make sense, but those are already out there and are sort of meh.  
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You might be right of course, but there are a lot of examples in history of adult content leading technology changes, from the VHS/Betamax to the internet in general to crypto/blockchains to VR stuff. It seems like that content is usually an early adopter. 

 
PhillipPhoto said:
The bold matches our financial advisor team's outlook for 2022.  In addition to industrials, utilities and staples is financials.  In addition they forecasted these four areas to be potential high soaring markets after 2022 and beyond.  They projected that the high soring tech market is over, for example they had AAPL at 8% this year and MSFT at 12% and that would be more normal going forward.  But the industrials, utilities, staples and energy are the markets that could kind of replace them and soar past normal type numbers.

It's hard for me, but in the spirit of some of the posts I need to not put too much money into the sexy tech stocks and wait for that third leg you mentioned and get good prices on industrials, utilities staples and financials.  Do you have a top 3 for for those markets?

PS.  Happy 52nd!
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Industrials:

DE

CMI

EMR

Materials:

LYB

DOW

Utilities

EXC

AEP

MDU

Financials:

JPM

Staples:

PG

UL

MCD

WMT (I know they are consumer disrectionay......but they are a super defensive stock and more of a stalwart staple)

TGT (read above....but with more growth)

KO

PEP

DEO

GIS

FAANG will have more normalized growth rates.....but there is large tech that will still soar going long no doubt in my mind:

NVDA

SHOP

CRM

ADSK

TTD (a new one we have added to our list)

RBLX

AMD

Those stocks above (Large Tech not in FAANG) have been beaten down to a pulp and to me long term? Represent compelling value for high growth for a long term investor with a strong stomach. 

I think FB and NFLX are great here as an entry point for those who have never owned them. AMZN is as well as it has been beaten down and may have some more after the bell today.....we shall see. 

I have not seen the value in the industrials, Staples, Utilities just yet for adding more.....still waiting (and maybe it does not happen but we are already in all these names....this is merely just to add more quality when the market panics). 

Financials look cheap here. Chemicals look cheap. Big High Growth Tech is on a fire sale. Now is the time to own some really great names for the long term in that category......again going against the herd here. And I have been doing that my entire investing life. 

Block out the noise. Because today.....it pounds you 24/7. Block it out and go long on stocks you believe in. 

 
Nugget said:
My daughter and her friends are Apple music.  As Apple continues to grow services and payments, I feel like it is a safer play than a stand alone music/podcast service.  As someone with little experience, how integrated are they in to daily interactions?
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my family all use Apple. for one monthly fee for a 'shared' plan, we all have Apple Music, TV, Arcade, and increased cloud storage. they make it very easy to stay in their ecosystem. it's pretty slick.

 
Todem said:
Industrials:

DE

CMI

EMR

Materials:

LYB

DOW

Utilities

EXC

AEP

MDU

Financials:

JPM

Staples:

PG

UL

MCD

WMT (I know they are consumer disrectionay......but they are a super defensive stock and more of a stalwart staple)

TGT (read above....but with more growth)

KO

PEP

DEO

GIS

FAANG will have more normalized growth rates.....but there is large tech that will still soar going long no doubt in my mind:

NVDA

SHOP

CRM

ADSK

TTD (a new one we have added to our list)

RBLX

AMD

Those stocks above (Large Tech not in FAANG) have been beaten down to a pulp and to me long term? Represent compelling value for high growth for a long term investor with a strong stomach. 

I think FB and NFLX are great here as an entry point for those who have never owned them. AMZN is as well as it has been beaten down and may have some more after the bell today.....we shall see. 

I have not seen the value in the industrials, Staples, Utilities just yet for adding more.....still waiting (and maybe it does not happen but we are already in all these names....this is merely just to add more quality when the market panics). 

Financials look cheap here. Chemicals look cheap. Big High Growth Tech is on a fire sale. Now is the time to own some really great names for the long term in that category......again going against the herd here. And I have been doing that my entire investing life. 

Block out the noise. Because today.....it pounds you 24/7. Block it out and go long on stocks you believe in. 
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You the man!

Tech - In trying to time the bottom retrospect I got in too early but took new positions in NVDA and NFLX for the first time, added to existing CRWD and took a flyer on SNOW.  Way too stock leveraged already and probably way too much AMZN and GOOG.  C'mon earnings report tonight!

Waiting for the rest:

Financials - Glad to see JPM, looking to add to existing position.

Utilities - Looking to add to existing MDU and will look at other suggestions.

Staples  -  Have currently JNJ, COST, WMT, HD.  Based on advise and price look to add to WMT and pick a new one.

Thank you.

 
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SFBayDuck said:
$500M was spent on virtual real estate last year, and $85M in January.  Now that's a drop in the bucket in the grand scheme of things, but there is a ton of money being invested into the space.  Brands are looking to get involved, there is the associated crypto play with many of them, and investment and R&D is increasing.

I don't get it, and I think it's a horrible thing for society (get outside, people!).  But there sure looks to be money to be made in this space.
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This article what I think of some of these $$$s thrown around now:

https://www.vice.com/en/article/xgdvnd/the-nft-ecosystem-is-a-complete-disaster 

I see this happening but like some of the initial NFT sales, they were done to make the prices high by basically having insiders buying their own stuff if you will.

Metaverses have a long way to go before we are Ready Player One’ing stuff. I’m not saying it won’t happen but I see the notes that metaverse real estate will one day be more than real world real estate. Maybe I’ll put my position as I believe blockchain and crypto technology will absolutely have a place in the future but I don’t believe in SHIB and the bulk of the alt coins. Same way that I think the current NFT space right now will likely be worth very, very little in the future. Doesn’t mean that smart contracts won’t be useful but owning a link to a GIF won’t be worth $1M.

 
pecorino said:
I don't disagree or go against todem advice very often, but I will not buy FB no matter how much it is on sale. Just cannot stomach it, plus as a teacher, I see how the teens are very much past Facebook now and on to other platforms.
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Yeah like Instagram.....

 
Desert_Power said:
You're not wrong, just would have to get a lot cheaper for me to do so. 
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At this price.......17 times current earnings. This is still a long term growth story.....and IMO on sale. Could it get a little cheaper tomorrow? Yeah...I can’t time that. I am long here.

 
pecorino said:
I don't disagree or go against todem advice very often, but I will not buy FB no matter how much it is on sale. Just cannot stomach it, plus as a teacher, I see how the teens are very much past Facebook now and on to other platforms.
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I totally respect that approach. You gotta want to own something and I can understand that feeling you have. 

I am so non emotional about it. Sometimes to a social fault....I guess. But again...they are not poisoning the water or running a sweat shop with child labor. 

I am very aware of the bad things they do behind th scenes.....and I have made my son fully aware of “The Social Dilemma” 

I educate him on a lot of things. But I also told him.....you can profit on this company without using it yourself.....oh crap...does that make me a drug pusher? 

Be well GB. 

 
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pecorino said:
I don't disagree or go against todem advice very often, but I will not buy FB no matter how much it is on sale. Just cannot stomach it, plus as a teacher, I see how the teens are very much past Facebook now and on to other platforms.
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Agree 100%.  It's on par with tobacco stocks with me.  I respect the right for individuals to use either of their products but wish they wouldn't. 

 
fruity pebbles said:
exactly. Kinda like how PayPal owns Venmo. Company gets big enough they can pivot and buy their way into whatever is the next thing. 
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Sure, but if you wait until they are "the next thing", you have to pay a huge premium for them.

It's the main reason why Buffett shies away from these stocks, he has no idea what they will be worth in 5-10 years because things change so quickly with them.

 
Todem said:
I totally respect that approach. You gotta want to own something and I can understand that feeling you have. 

I am so non emotional about it. Sometimes to a social fault....I guess. But again...they are not poisoning the water or running a sweat shop with child labor. 

I am very aware of the bad things they do behind th scenes.....and I have made my son fully aware of “The Social Dilemma” 

I educate him on a lot of things. But I also told him.....you can profit on this company without using it yourself.....oh crap...does that make me a drug pusher? 

Be well GB. 
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I think my tiering of "evil" big tech would be:

FB

GOOG

TWTR

AMZN

APPL

MSFT

 
Todem said:
The only one I don’t own is TWTR which has come down so much now too. 

All those stocks are profit centers. Printing green backs everyday 365 a year. 
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Sure and it pays to be completely neutral and I would do so with any clients. 

But as ESG-based investing grows in popularity it's nice to have an idea of how they may be affected/perceived. 

 
ConstruxBoy said:
Sure and it pays to be completely neutral and I would do so with any clients. 

But as ESG-based investing grows in popularity it's nice to have an idea of how they may be affected/perceived. 
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When I onboard anyone I always ask any companies you never want to own or be a part of. One of the big questions. 

Everyone I work for.....has no qualms with what we have constructed. 

I do have a few that want nothing to do with tobacco stocks. 

It will be interesting to see if I ever get a “don’t buy me FB or GOOGLE” request. Has not happened yet.

 
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Todem said:
I know your embellishing a little....because I know way too many late 20’s early 30’s that live there LMAO.
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On Fb? I have probably 8 people that age I know of in my life and none are on FB. I asked one the other day actually and he said it’s all either the gram or tiktok. 

 
My FB is just 60 year olds posting memes that say “DOES ANYBODY EVEN EAT COLE SLAW ANYMORE? Like and share if you do” with a picture of a bowl of cole slaw attached or the “how many of these have you tried? 8+ makes you a real southern” and one of the options is like, fried chicken 

 
Todem said:
When I onboard anyone I always ask any companies you never want to own or be a part of. One of the big questions. 

Everyone I work for.....has no qualms with what we have constructed. 

I do have a few that want nothing to do with tobacco stocks. 

It will be interesting to see if I ever get a “don’t buy me FB or GOOGLE” request. Has not happened yet.
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Oh sure and you may never get that. But I don't question someone who personally doesn't want to own them, or really, any company. That's why you ask new clients. 

I'm wondering if this ESG is a fad or will catch on. 

 
Meta is an interesting. Can they pivot without walking the tech desert for 15 years like MSFT? I think it is positive that they clearly see that their core business will have diminishing returns and are proactively seeking out a new path forward. With an expected capex increase of something like 80% in 2022, how much can their current business support the spending needed to go after this new space? How long will it take them to make the pivot and will it work? Another play might be the companies benefitting from FB spending; CSCO, ANET, NVDA, etc.

 
ConstruxBoy said:
Oh sure and you may never get that. But I don't question someone who personally doesn't want to own them, or really, any company. That's why you ask new clients. 

I'm wondering if this ESG is a fad or will catch on. 
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It will always be IMO a niche. It has been around for a long time.

 
Capella said:
On Fb? I have probably 8 people that age I know of in my life and none are on FB. I asked one the other day actually and he said it’s all either the gram or tiktok. 
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Gram is very popular....owned by FB. Tick Tock is mostly under 21....but some 20 somethings....who then outgrow it and move on to.....yep FB.

 
Capella said:
My FB is just 60 year olds posting memes that say “DOES ANYBODY EVEN EAT COLE SLAW ANYMORE? Like and share if you do” with a picture of a bowl of cole slaw attached or the “how many of these have you tried? 8+ makes you a real southern” and one of the options is like, fried chicken 
Click to expand...


:lmao:   :lmao:   :lmao:

I log in once a year to see pics of my grandchildren on the first day of school.  I can confirm this phenomenon.  I also see a lot of DO YOU KNOW WHAT THIS IS?!! IF YOU ARE UNDER 60 YOU PROBABLY DON'T!! 

 
Todem said:
I know your embellishing a little....because I know way too many late 20’s early 30’s that live there LMAO.
Click to expand...
Same - I always hear people say things like "no one under 45 are on Facebook" but in my anecdotal experience I don't find that true. 

 
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