General Malaise
Footballguy
Gold is up over $1,990/Oz. All-time high $2,063. Strap in.
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Stock Thread (33 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Capella
Footballguy
cosjobs
Footballguy
He wrote a lot about market capitulation and even the blue chips down 20%. But I think he was low on powder a week or so ago and I assumed he thought the capitulation had happened, on the last dead cat bounce. That surprised me but maybe I'm misremembering.
cosjobs
Footballguy
cosjobs
Footballguy
cosjobs
Footballguy
But the Ukraine war was a black swan event I don't think he foresaw, beyond all the other reasons to call a 20% correction. I think that event made energy spike but sent most other sectors in the toilet
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cosjobs
Footballguy
Have you been following palladium and platinum? Both mined a lot in Russia and up 4% this weekend.
GoBirds
Footballguy
Just look at it as getting your stocks on sale form what you would have paid a few weeks back.
If a deal closes next month I will have a windfall hit and I’m not sure I have the stones to invest much of it initially but I will keep averaging in as I always do. Not sure where else to put money right now? If I unload a piece of real estate my cash in the money market will be eroding value so I’ll just keep biting off chunks I figure.
cosjobs
Footballguy
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stinkzmagee
Footballguy
Yeah, but where? Profitable growth down a decent bit (FB, AMD type stuff)? Speculative growth that’s gotten crushed 75% (ARK type stuff)? Dividend blue chips? Other?Just look at it as getting your stocks on sale form what you would have paid a few weeks back.
If a deal closes next month I will have a windfall hit and I’m not sure I have the stones to invest much of it initially but I will keep averaging in as I always do. Not sure where else to put money right now? If I unload a piece of real estate my cash in the money market will be eroding value so I’ll just keep biting off chunks I figure.
GoBirds
Footballguy
I’m no expert but I’ve been adding to Vanguard ETF for total market, some Amazon/Apple, went with Google in my Roth. When we see pullbacks I’ll try to do a little extra. When I catch advise from great posters like Todem on stocks they are high in I sometimes grab those as well.
It’s tough right now for sure but I’m trying to stay the course.
cosjobs
Footballguy
Imo, safest current asset is inflation protected bonds direct from US treasury. You can buy $10k worth per year
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
You may not be an expert (neither am I) but this sounds like exactly what one should be doing, given risk tolerance and time horizon, etc. The really-not-experts are the ones who sell on the downturns.
Todem
Footballguy
I never said a number. Just expected a correction and we got it. And again I will reiterate that they can snowball and this black swan (Ukraine) can easily tip the scales to more pain.
North American staples have not corrected. So the defensive part of the portfolio has held up quite nicely.
My signal for bottom swimming is total capitulation when all sectors sell indiscriminately.
We have been able to get some great value in industrials (DE, CMI), International staples (UL, DEO, PM). And of course mega tech.
I am comfortable with the cash I have left….and I keep maxing my 401K.
Todem
Footballguy
I have simply given my thoughts and my biggest year end thought last year is we would see sone volatility hence my cash build before Thanksgiving last tear in trimming profits. We have certainly gotten volatility and it hit the tech sector the hardest and at one point the Dow, and S&P hit correction territory being off 10% plus and we deployed half the powder into Tech, discretionary, financials, Industrials. We have not seen that in staples though.
If we do and see total indiscriminate selling I define that as capitulation.
Has not happened yet in the market as a whole.
Mega and large tech? Most certainly has capitulated. But that’s it so far.
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Todem
Footballguy
I’m just continuing to plow money into our 401ks and sitting on whatever cash position I still have. Somewhere in the 10-20%, not looking as much lately. Luckily, good on cash outside retirement funds so riding it out like 2020. Wish I liquidated more but c’est la vie.
James Daulton
Footballguy
What indicators are there that this market has any upward pressure at all? War, oil, inflation, higher interest rates, uncertainty are all the major market forces right now and they all point to lower stocks at least in the near term.
I do think that when things settle we move upwards pretty quickly since the US economy is actually really healthy right now outside of inflation and demand is massive.
I do think that when things settle we move upwards pretty quickly since the US economy is actually really healthy right now outside of inflation and demand is massive.
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Todem
Footballguy
Good assessment. A lot of headwinds…..if things get clarity as the year progresses a nice coiled spring year end rally is what I am looking for to squeak out a low single digit return. That is the hope for 2022.
James Daulton
Footballguy
And despite all the headwinds the market really hasn't reacted all that badly. Nothing like the reaction to covid in 2020 for example. There's just too much pent up demand and potential. Too many people have jobs and money to spend. Folks complain incessantly here about inflation and gas prices yet the roads are packed and companies are setting sales records.
Todem
Footballguy
Well……I do have a decent bite sized tax bill for 2021 for that cash build lol….is what it is.
Todem
Footballguy
Agree and agree. The economy is robust. I have my eye on late 2023 though as a potential moderate recession as interest rates can pull us into that and that can ultimately bring inflation down a lot….that is direct by-product of a shift in monetary policy and the Fed is certainly behind the curve.
It will be interesting to say the least to see how we pull out of this heavy inflationary pressure and how the economy as a whole will digest all this.
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jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
It’s not all negative. The biggest hurdle for the market the past two years was covid. Between declining numbers and more treatments—you have more Americans ready to go back out and to living normally again. Also—generally speaking—the American consumer and investor is strong. You have a strong job market with an unemployment rate that is dropping pretty solidly. You also still have more money in the hands of American consumers due to the past couple years of stimulus, as well as the fact that some people weren’t able to spend as much as they normally do the past couple of years. I’m not saying that the markets will be smooth sailing—-as I think the opposite. I think the market will have a lot of short term volatility. With that said—I do think that medium to high inflation is going to be around for a while. I don’t think that you want to be overly heavy in cash for the short to medium term.
So true. Amazon is my biggest holding in my taxable account and I have a bigger chunk of cash there, so I wasn’t going to get hit much. In the IRAs, I had some more stocks that have gotten whacked that honestly I should have dumped. They might be fine in a few years but in hindsight I agreed with you that we needed to trim and I did, but I should have been more aggressive with the things I didn’t have 100% faith in. Water under the bridge now. Very glad I did sell what I did in November.
McBokonon
Footballguy
Apparently Ryan Cohen disclosed a 9% or so stake in the company. It was already a sometimes meme stock and now there’s hope he’ll bring innovation like NFT vanilla candles so obviously it should moon.
People who want to continue to give Ryan Cohen more money. Amazing considering how poorly the company is doing. The letter basically says same store sales are in the toilet so focus on something else and sell stuff. If Toys R Us and Sears didn’t find buyers, who’s going to buy BBBY at that high a premium?
cosjobs
Footballguy
I had some at 17 and sold 90% of them this morning. NOT buying. Esp. in this environment.
cosjobs
Footballguy
Thanks for replying/updating.
I hope you did not think I was calling you out or anything. Quite the opposite. I appreciated your earlier guidance for the correction and have profited from it (in a different way - inverses, VIx and Oil plays). I was showing what you opinions were a month ago, which were quite astute.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
60% deployed in my play (roth) account. Mostly tech stuff after sell offs, but still down around 10-15% on that money.
Now what to do with the last 40%.
Now what to do with the last 40%.
cosjobs
Footballguy
Thanks for these. I like them and they will be a nice balance to my positions this morning in Platinum (IMPUY) and Palladium (PALL) on their dips. They were both up 4% over the weekend, but down now. These are strong plays if Russia is sanctioned out of selling precocious metals.
GoBirds
Footballguy
Exactly, while we don’t want to walk into a buzzsaw for those of us more than a decade from retirement odds are today is a good price relative to 15 years out. I added to my Vanguard total market fund and added to my Southwest Airlines position today. Good luck to all.
I think you answered your own question- a big part of the reason why the market really hasn't reacted all that badly is because it's expecting things to get better. If it was only reacting to what's happening right now, we'd undoubtedly be a lot lower. Unfortunately, that also means we shouldn't really move upwards that quickly when things turn around because that's the expectation.
Likewise, yes the US economy is healthy right now, but tightening monetary policy could easily put the kibosh on that. I mean, the whole point of tightening is to slow things down, but it's a delicate balancing act to not over-do it and put us into an outright recession.
cosjobs
Footballguy
I'm polar opposite in FAZ (mid sized position bought last week, up 7%). Good news is one of us will win. High interest works in your favor. I guess war and uncertainty helping my side. I also dumped most of my GS and MS this morning
beef
Footballguy
BNKU is not necessarily a ST play for me and I'll keep buying it down and hold as long as I need to. I want to build a massive position in it like I did Big Oil the past two years.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
So Amazon down below 2800 again?
So much for that bomb earnings report from a couple weeks back.
I'm about to dump the rest of my play money into amazon and a few things Todem me tioned and just be done with ever looking at all this nonsense again
So much for that bomb earnings report from a couple weeks back.
I'm about to dump the rest of my play money into amazon and a few things Todem me tioned and just be done with ever looking at all this nonsense again
