Todem
Footballguy
Yeah it sucks. But it’s part of investing. Pain. And then pleasure for a long term outlook. Sentiment is at a 10 year low on the stock.
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Stock Thread (25 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
I think it's more a reality check that a good company does not necessarily make for a good investment. Many people invest because "I love this company and so do most people I know" with little focus on the actual nuts and bolts of the business.
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Capella
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
RBLX down 12% as well. At 52 week low I think.
Man, all these techy stocks dropped like 70%
Man, all these techy stocks dropped like 70%
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
SHOP down 11% today as well.
I don't quite get the correlation between online shopping and TV streaming, but I guess the idea here is the covid boom in all these businesses really was just temporary, and not "a fundamental change to the way we live our lives" and people are getting out of all of them.
General Malaise
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Chadstroma
Footballguy
No, talking NFLX.
UWMC and my myriad of cannabis stocks have been the dogs of my portfolio but I am still in the long game for them (and the cannabis stocks) but the nice thing with UWMC is the about 10% dividend yield while I wait it out.
Mortgage lenders will start to drop like flies and my expectation is that when the recession hits that rates will come back down.... perhaps even lower (the guy I listen to about the future of rates thinks this is what will happen). These other companies will not survive to then or will shed a ton of their capacity (layoffs) while UWMC will continue to move along, be healthy, produce and retain capacity to take advantage of it with another refi boom.
Regardless, my view of UWMC (as I have said) is that it is more a tech company doing mortgages than a mortgage lender using tech but has the experience of actually being a mortgage lender. If they just came on the scene without growing out from their roots, Wall St would have been stumbling over themselves to hand them money like some other Fintech.
McBokonon
Footballguy
McBokonon
Footballguy
Maybe Ryan Cohen will buy NFLX and start selling NFTs of Bojack Horseman plowing the cast of Bridgerton.
Capella
Footballguy
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Oof. Bill Ackman reportedly lost almost half a billion on Netflix since the beginning of the year…….that’s a shame.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
beef
Footballguy
WTF is this shady #### Melvin Capital is up to now? Unwinding their current fund and starting up a new one because they can't return capital to their investors so they can then charge fees? No penalties, no repercussions? This must be part of the "we can't let Billionaires fail" law politicians continue to support.
hedge fund Melvin Capital weighs unwinding current fund to start new one
hedge fund Melvin Capital weighs unwinding current fund to start new one
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beef
Footballguy
Are you still playing DWAC? Their future looks as good as Russia's economy.
“We believe $DWAC will never secure regulatory approval to close its proposed merger with Trump Media & Tech Group,” Kerrisdale tweeted.
The short seller points to the SEC cracking down on SPACs recently and calls Digital World Acquisition “a poster child for some of the worst abuses the investment vehicle has spawned.”
The SPAC and the target company are high-profile, which could lead to the SEC making an example. Kerrisdale also highlights the sponsor of Digital World Acquisition being a Chinese firm that previously had three shell companies “killed by the SEC in the past.”
McBokonon
Footballguy
Hey guys, just an fyi that all of the things we were discussing yesterday about Netflix’s challenges, like increasing competition, pricing, and so on, are actually irrelevant and the real problem, according to the political forum, is wokeness. So we just need to put them back asleep and everything will be ok.
Capella
Footballguy
Gopher State
Footballguy
Love KMI up 26 percent YTD and bonus 5.5 percent dividend that they just raised. I have a nice position in it and thinking I will be adding when I sell some tech stocks in May and go away for the summer.
kevzilla
Footballguy
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
I still am. Have 6, 5/20 $45 put contracts. Could sell right now which would be the equivalent of it trading at $35 a share but holding on. Selling is accelerating today and have roughly a month still.
I keep looking to buy more puts, particularly when it recently went over $60 again but they are incredibly expensive. A 12/16/22, $40 put is going to cost you around $25 each. The market has been expecting this to end at $0.00 long before this news broke.
ETA
I'm hoping for a close below $40 today which should lead to a major leg down.
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General Malaise
Footballguy
It's shady as hell. You start a fund, you charge 1/20, assets swell so if you run a slim organization with low overhead, you can cover the fees with the 1% and get phat on the 20% IF AND ONLY IF you make money. The problem is, if you have a down year, you gotta make that loss up the next year. And god help you if you have two down years in a row. Now you gotta make up those losses AND your partners are leaving because the hedge fund next door is up and their neighbor just bought a boat. So you close shop, return what's left to your partners, go away for a while, "FIND YOURSELF", and open up a brand new hedge fund with a different name and a new mandate.
I don't want to name names, but many of you might recall a flamboyant, long haired know-it-all who used to be on CNBC as a frequent guest, usually predicting doom and gloom. He blew up a fund or two, came back, did it all again. Because why wouldn't you trust your money with a guy who is ON TV! And you'd think from his TV interviews that maybe this fancy hedge fund manager with a 3 syllable last name and a penchant for tennis would have a big fancy office with a huge staff, you know, like you see on "Billions". Nope, just a small office on the second floor of a hair dresser on a non-descript block of a PNW city with one other employee and a decent internet connection.
A $5 billion short fund is suicide. Short dedicated funds should be much smaller. You gotta be nimble, like a small sail boat so you can tack and change with the wind in a moment's notice. $5 billion is an air-craft carrier for a dedicated short to run. Give me $5 billion and I'm just going to put it in Tbills and live off your 1%. No staff, I'll work from home and my quarterly letters will be full of platitudes like "We here at Milos Money Management pride ourselves on capital preservation" or "We chose to be very conservative in the quarter just passed but will re-engage with the markets when conditions improve". Then I'd tell a witty story about one of my kids and finish with "We look forward to reporting to you in the quarter ahead".
General Malaise
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
Jeeezam. Yeah, we couldn't locate a short on this weeks ago when asked. And I think I told you that generally, when you ask stock loan departments for a borrow (either on the phone or through their system) there's a lag before you get your answer. This was an immediate NO. Like asking your wife if you can sleep with her sister "NO".
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
I tried to straight short it a dozen times over the last couple of months and ran into the problem.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
This is just torture.
Gopher State
Footballguy
Same here. I only have 100 shares, but it seems to go down daily. Don’t know if I should cut bait or ride it out
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I guess. Fundamentally though it's a company with 650% YoY growth in both revenue and profit that has a P/E ratio of 9.6.
A little different than the gambling stocks that never had a single quarter of profit.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Are they sold at a loss and you're worried about the wash rule?
No wash rule in an IRA since you're not paying taxes on the gains/losses anyway.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
We could've shorted any tech stock outside of FAANG over that period and made insane profits. Actually half of FAANG would have worked too.
General Malaise
Footballguy
beef
Footballguy
Good points. And quite different based on that. It's just the watching it drop every day no matter what real cryptos are doing that gets old.
For a while there the only things I was certain on was death, taxes and DKNG dropping. Now COIN seems to want to join this group.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I own a lot of stocks in that group. UPST, SE, ADBE, NVDA, AMD, SHOP, etc.
They all have slower growth than COIN with P/E ratios 4x-20x higher. Of course COIN has tons of other risks (moat, crypto as a whole remaining relevant, etc). That's what makes COIN so weird.
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SFBayDuck
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
All U is dropping; well EVERYTHING is on sale today, but yeah, Uranium names are taking it on the chin. Spot price dropped for the first time in a while, not a lot of buyers, investors seem to have vanished - blah blah blah. Also thinking about it out loud, there were probably more than a few speculators who bought stocks on margin and they are now getting sold sloppily.
I'll stick with UUUU for now, but I have a trigger finger on it.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Here I thought my SPXS calls would expire worthless. Which would have been just fine with me. :(
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Fed ever going to stop jawboning and actually do something? We are a 1/3 of the way through the year and they’ve raised rates a whole .25 point and haven’t done anything with their balance sheet yet.
Gopher State
Footballguy
Again, only the fed chair should be allowed to speak, and only once a month. They talked about rate increase of .50 next month today, and the market tanked.
