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Stock Thread (13 Viewers)

Well, to keep it positive, I haven't maxed out my TSP Roth for the year yet and my next contribution I think hits tonight.  

 
Chadstroma said:
UWMC and my myriad of cannabis stocks have been the dogs of my portfolio but I am still in the long game for them (and the cannabis stocks) but the nice thing with UWMC is the about 10% dividend yield while I wait it out. 

Mortgage lenders will start to drop like flies and my expectation is that when the recession hits that rates will come back down.... perhaps even lower (the guy I listen to about the future of rates thinks this is what will happen). These other companies will not survive to then or will shed a ton of their capacity (layoffs) while UWMC will continue to move along, be healthy, produce and retain capacity to take advantage of it with another refi boom. 

Regardless, my view of UWMC (as I have said) is that it is more a tech company doing mortgages than a mortgage lender using tech but has the experience of actually being a mortgage lender. If they just came on the scene without growing out from their roots, Wall St would have been stumbling over themselves to hand them money like some other Fintech. 
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UWMC is so very tempting at these levels.  To the point that there's got to be more here for it to have fallen this far, beyond the obvious (current climate).   All of which is fine by me, btw, I love a contrarian take and/or times.  And I can wait it out, especially given the "discount".  

But how is that 10% dividend going to hold up?  Does anybody have a good gauge on what will happen there?

I know you're in the industry so I love hearing your take.  I would actually like to hear what some of the guys in the real estate threads think as well.  People in the industry.  Has it ever been brought up in there?

And thanks, been following this one for awhile because of you.

 
Harry Frogfish said:
UWMC is so very tempting at these levels.  To the point that there's got to be more here for it to have fallen this far, beyond the obvious (current climate).   All of which is fine by me, btw, I love a contrarian take and/or times.  And I can wait it out, especially given the "discount".  

But how is that 10% dividend going to hold up?  Does anybody have a good gauge on what will happen there?

I know you're in the industry so I love hearing your take.  I would actually like to hear what some of the guys in the real estate threads think as well.  People in the industry.  Has it ever been brought up in there?

And thanks, been following this one for awhile because of you.
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There is not much if a track record to look back in with their divided but I am not too worried about it. Can I say with total confidence it won't change? Absolutely not. My take on Ishbia is he isn't one to retreat... maybe an occasional tactical redeployment but retreat? Hell no. 

 
So rate hikes were priced in months ago when they were talked about happening this year.  But then they were discussed again and now they are really priced in and not just the previous talked about priced in.  Until May of course, when they might actually happen and then they'll be really really be priced in?  Is this how these rate hikes and the markets work?  

 
beef said:
So rate hikes were priced in months ago when they were talked about happening this year.  But then they were discussed again and now they are really priced in and not just the previous talked about priced in.  Until May of course, when they might actually happen and then they'll be really really be priced in?  Is this how these rate hikes and the markets work?  
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I think it's because the market was expecting .5 and got .25.  Mr. Market doesn't like surprises and this move should only prolong inflation issues. 

 
2Squirrels1Nut said:
I think it's because the market was expecting .5 and got .25.  Mr. Market doesn't like surprises and this move should only prolong inflation issues. 
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Wait so raising rates is a bad thing for the market, but not raising rates is also a bad thing for the market?  The game is rigged!

I think the only thing that is going to save us anytime soon is a surprise lower CPI print that maybe signals inflation headed in the right direction.  Not sure how long we'll be waiting on that, though.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Wait so raising rates is a bad thing for the market, but not raising rates is also a bad thing for the market?  The game is rigged!

I think the only thing that is going to save us anytime soon is a surprise lower CPI print that maybe signals inflation headed in the right direction.  Not sure how long we'll be waiting on that, though.
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The averages tumbled today after a shockingly low CPI number spooked the market, with many predicting this sharp inflation reversal will lead to a more dovish Fed, thereby inflaming inflation fears. We realize that last sentence was contradictory but we’re dealing with algorithms here. We just don’t know. Smoo?

 
beef said:
So rate hikes were priced in months ago when they were talked about happening this year.  But then they were discussed again and now they are really priced in and not just the previous talked about priced in.  Until May of course, when they might actually happen and then they'll be really really be priced in?  Is this how these rate hikes and the markets work?  
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yes 

the only way to beat this stupid game (imo) is to wait it out so buckle up and hunker down. 

 
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Buy Low.

NEE - added to existing position, earnings beat, miss revenue and bad news about Dept of Commerce causing delays getting solar panels.   But, all the project will still be happening, good buy opportunity.

VOO & VYM - adds just to funnel more money in the broader market while it's low, DCA.

 
McBokonon said:
Speaking of income, I’m restarting my love affair with CDW. They just keep doing what they say they’re going to do and they’re necessary in any environment. Covid? No problem, we’ll help your business get set up to work remotely. Covid been eradicated from the face of the earth? No problem, we’ll help them get back into the office. All the while, we’ll help them all stay up to date. 

The yield is only 1.09% but that’s mainly because the stock still appreciates and should continue to do so. Outside of COVID they increase the dividend significantly every year.
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CDW has at least held up well so far. Earnings May 4th, hopefully the force is strong with them. They’ll pay out two more $0.50 dividends before raising it again. If their history is an indicator, the raise will be around 20% if not more.

 
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SOFI looks like it’s working it’s way to under 6.00.  Lot’s of stocks look cheap, but I have a feeling their going to be a lot cheaper in the near future.  

 
Gopher State said:
SOFI looks like it’s working it’s way to under 6.00.  Lot’s of stocks look cheap, but I have a feeling their going to be a lot cheaper in the near future.  
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Was just looking at SOFI and thinking the same.  Until they can shake the "student loan only" view, the future does not look good.  

 
Everything’s down today but if some of you guys are getting slaughtered on down days, maybe a good value fund to add to all that high tech growth? VVIAX has been a life saver for me, before today sitting at it’s all time high. 

 
General Malaise said:
Dude, I'm getting out of all uranium.  Spot price is in a free fall.
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I followed you in, so I'm following you out, locking in the gain I have left on CCJ.  

Literally nothing working right now....energy, tech, pharma, aerospace and defense, commodities, it's all getting whacked.

 
fruity pebbles said:
Everything’s down today but if some of you guys are getting slaughtered on down days, maybe a good value fund to add to all that high tech growth? VVIAX has been a life saver for me, before today sitting at it’s all time high. 
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Checked in on VAW which has been a relatively nice balance and even that was down 3% today :lol:

Just went and spread $5k among a bunch of random stocks I'm already losing money on :shrug:

 
SFBayDuck said:
I followed you in, so I'm following you out, locking in the gain I have left on CCJ.  

Literally nothing working right now....energy, tech, pharma, aerospace and defense, commodities, it's all getting whacked.
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No, we're getting murdered.  Glad you exited with a profit on this one.  Should have run the other direction fast when I learned Reddit bros were trying to meme uranium higher.  The reality is, now that Sprott has purchased all their physical and they're done, there aren't any other meaningful buyers.  Utilities are stocked up, producers have supply, Japan still has supply.  I'm thinking uranium has more room to fall.  

And of course, I could be completely wrong.  I don't know anything anymore.  Except that I love OKE. :wub:

 
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beef said:
I think my biggest frustration is that I don't have more cash to throw in right now.  Days like we've had lately I just want to buy buy buy.  
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I had a pretty big buy a few weeks ago and was very excited. Told my wife it was a pretty rare opportunity. Well everything is down big since then so I guess this is…..rarer? Lol 

 
Recalibration. Simple as that. Valuations are adjusting. Interest rates are moving. 

Look at what has taken place......and the Fed has only made one move so far.

One.

The reality is this as we discussed heading into 2022 last November.

This is a recalibration of monetary policy, interest rates and this is how markets react in the first 6-8 months of interest rates going up. The market is already done half the work for the Fed on 2,5,10 and 30 year bond yields. 

Will there be some more pain? Yes there will be. But this is part of the process and the cyclical nature of the economy. 

So I will say this again. Block out all the noise (CNBC, FOX News) because 98% of it is pure unadulterated noise and agenda’s. 

Have a high quality portfolio for the majority of your money (master list), stay away from bonds through this recalibration.....seriously....just stay away from Bonds for a while. I would not even consider fixed income till 2023 at the earliest. The only fixed income we have is TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) and Floating Rate Senior Debt Bank Loans......that’s it. 

Don’t worry about your big tech stocks that are down 20/30/40% PLUS........THINK LONG TERM. 

Some of those stocks may never get back to their November highs in your lifetime.....but if you can sit tight....be patient and wait till your 20%, 18% 15% down......then dump em and reallocate the capitol to better long term prospects. 

Not every stock you own will be a winner. It simply does not work that way. Knowing when to let go is also an important part of the process. 

There will be a time a lot of the higher quality mega tech (SHOP, CRM, FB, NVDA, AMD) will roar back.....be on top of those rallies and re-assess your risk tolerance and long term goals and make decisions with those types of companies if you have taken it on the chin. 

Never have more than 5% in any one stock if you can help it (I realize stocks like AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN etc make up larger parts of peoples portfolios) but trim when you see all time highs.....pay your gains....and reallocate into good growing dividend stocks too. 

Portfolio Yield is critical to getting through sideways and bear markets. Total return. 

We wrote a ton of covered calls again Monday and Tuesday after our Easter Expirations......glad we got that done. All with July expirations and anywhere from 15-25% out of the money. 

Anyway......take a deep breath.....don't look at it for a while, kiss your wife and kids....watch a movie....go workout, play some video games.....anything but worrying about this stuff.

It’s not permanent. It is merely a transition into another Bull Market.......but it will be a bumpy road in 2023.....and I expect low to negative type returns in 2023. 

However I still maintain we will rally by 4th quarter and probably get back to where we started 2022....and it is critical for you to take the opportunity to evaluate your portfolios, see what you own, make prudent changes for a potentially rougher 2023 and reassess your risk tolerance. 

I know a lot of you have funny money accounts and use this thread for that.....I am talking about your serious money. Your set it and forget it money. 

Plow into your 401K’s......and relax. All part of the journey. I have seen far worse than this. And so have you guys (I think).

Have a great weekend.

 
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Todem said:
Recalibration. Simple as that. Valuations are adjusting. Interest rates are moving. 

Look at what has taken place......and the Fed has only made one move so far.

One.

The reality is this as we discussed heading into 2022 last November.

This is a recalibration of monetary policy, interest rates and this is how markets react in the first 6-8 months of interest rates going up. The market is already done half the work for the Fed on 2,5,10 and 30 year bond yields. 

Will there be some more pain? Yes there will be. But this is part of the process and the cyclical nature of the economy. 

So I will say this again. Block out all the noise (CNBC, FOX News) because 98% of it is pure unadulterated noise and agenda’s. 

Have a high quality portfolio for the majority of your money (master list), stay away from bonds through this recalibration.....seriously....just stay away from Bonds for a while. I would not even consider fixed income till 2023 at the earliest. The only fixed income we have is TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) and Floating Rate Senior Debt Bank Loans......that’s it. 

Don’t worry about your big tech stocks that are down 20/30/40% PLUS........THINK LONG TERM. 

Some of those stocks may never get back to their November highs in your lifetime.....but if you can sit tight....be patient and wait till your 20%, 18% 15% down......then dump em and reallocate the capitol to better long term prospects. 

Not every stock you own will be a winner. It simply does not work that way. Knowing when to let go is also an important part of the process. 

There will be a time a lot of the higher quality mega tech (SHOP, CRM, FB, NVDA, AMD) will roar back.....be on top of those rallies and re-assess your risk tolerance and long term goals and make decisions with those types of companies if you have taken it on the chin. 

Never have more than 5% in any one stock if you can help it (I realize stocks like AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN etc make up larger parts of peoples portfolios) but trim when you see all time highs.....pay your gains....and reallocate into good growing dividend stocks too. 

Portfolio Yield is critical to getting through sideways and bear markets. Total return. 

We wrote a ton of covered calls again Monday and Tuesday after our Easter Expirations......glad we got that done. All with July expirations and anywhere from 15-25% out of the money. 

Anyway......take a deep breath.....don't look at it for a while, kiss your wife and kids....watch a movie....go workout, play some video games.....anything but worrying about this stuff.

It’s not permanent. It is merely a transition into another Bull Market.......but it will be a bumpy road in 2023.....and I expect low to negative type returns in 2023. 

However I still maintain we will rally by 4th quarter and probably get back to where we started 2022....and it is critical for you to take the opportunity to evaluate your portfolios, see what you own, make prudent changes for a potentially rougher 2023 and reassess your risk tolerance. 

I know a lot of you have funny money accounts and use this thread for that.....I am talking about your serious money. Your set it and forget it money. 

Plow into your 401K’s......and relax. All part of the journey. I have seen far worse than this. And so have you guys (I think).

Have a great weekend.
Click to expand...


You.....

You're good.

 
Todem said:
Recalibration. Simple as that. Valuations are adjusting. Interest rates are moving. 

Look at what has taken place......and the Fed has only made one move so far.

One.

The reality is this as we discussed heading into 2022 last November.

This is a recalibration of monetary policy, interest rates and this is how markets react in the first 6-8 months of interest rates going up. The market is already done half the work for the Fed on 2,5,10 and 30 year bond yields. 

Will there be some more pain? Yes there will be. But this is part of the process and the cyclical nature of the economy. 

So I will say this again. Block out all the noise (CNBC, FOX News) because 98% of it is pure unadulterated noise and agenda’s. 

Have a high quality portfolio for the majority of your money (master list), stay away from bonds through this recalibration.....seriously....just stay away from Bonds for a while. I would not even consider fixed income till 2023 at the earliest. The only fixed income we have is TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) and Floating Rate Senior Debt Bank Loans......that’s it. 

Don’t worry about your big tech stocks that are down 20/30/40% PLUS........THINK LONG TERM. 

Some of those stocks may never get back to their November highs in your lifetime.....but if you can sit tight....be patient and wait till your 20%, 18% 15% down......then dump em and reallocate the capitol to better long term prospects. 

Not every stock you own will be a winner. It simply does not work that way. Knowing when to let go is also an important part of the process. 

There will be a time a lot of the higher quality mega tech (SHOP, CRM, FB, NVDA, AMD) will roar back.....be on top of those rallies and re-assess your risk tolerance and long term goals and make decisions with those types of companies if you have taken it on the chin. 

Never have more than 5% in any one stock if you can help it (I realize stocks like AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN etc make up larger parts of peoples portfolios) but trim when you see all time highs.....pay your gains....and reallocate into good growing dividend stocks too. 

Portfolio Yield is critical to getting through sideways and bear markets. Total return. 

We wrote a ton of covered calls again Monday and Tuesday after our Easter Expirations......glad we got that done. All with July expirations and anywhere from 15-25% out of the money. 

Anyway......take a deep breath.....don't look at it for a while, kiss your wife and kids....watch a movie....go workout, play some video games.....anything but worrying about this stuff.

It’s not permanent. It is merely a transition into another Bull Market.......but it will be a bumpy road in 2023.....and I expect low to negative type returns in 2023. 

However I still maintain we will rally by 4th quarter and probably get back to where we started 2022....and it is critical for you to take the opportunity to evaluate your portfolios, see what you own, make prudent changes for a potentially rougher 2023 and reassess your risk tolerance. 

I know a lot of you have funny money accounts and use this thread for that.....I am talking about your serious money. Your set it and forget it money. 

Plow into your 401K’s......and relax. All part of the journey. I have seen far worse than this. And so have you guys (I think).

Have a great weekend.
Click to expand...
Thanks for this post.  It made re-evaluate my portfolio.  I am over 5 percent in Amazon, so I am going to look for opportunities to rebalance to FB, google, Tesla.  I am also heavy in O, but it is my favorite dividend stock, with monthly dividends, so going to leave as is.  Good advice on bonds, I don’t own any, but have some fun money sitting in a TIP.  Nice to have a voice of reason in a crazy market.

 
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