Stone Cold Lock of the Year (1 Viewer)

[Evilgrin 72]

Ogden will struggle with an edge rusher, but that's not Smith. There's no significant advantage there.

Normally I'd agree with you, but Smith has good speed (I watched the guy not allow Santonio Holmes the corner on a reverse 2 weeks ago and kee a play that would have gone 15 yards to a 4-yard gain) and Ogden looked like a turnstile on Monday night.

It might look like a fine line to draw, but Smith's straight line speed has not translated to edge rushing skill at any point in his career. He has great lateral and pursuit speed, but has never consistently gotten off the ball quickly, shown a good push and lean or an awareness of the shortest line to the pocket.Smith does his best work when he can work leverage against an average OT (see his mulitple explosions against KC over the past two seasons) or against the Steelers. He plays better against Pittsburgh than any other team. No question that Ogden was a turnstile against Harrison and Co. but I think there's a big difference between aligning away from the tackle in a two point stance and in a 5-tech 3 point stance. Ogden struggled with the toe injury in the first half of the opening game in Cincinnati and didn't have much trouble against Smith. If Ogden can consistently get his hands on Smith, I don't think he'll have too much difficulty keeping him away from McNair. If he can't, he'll probably be benched.

Can't argue with any of this, but I still think Ogden is playing at far less than 100% and isn't what he used to be anyway. I wouldn't be shocked to see Smith get some pressure - I'll be interested to see how it plays out. As always, terrific analysis.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Hey Jeff what do you think of the Lions +1 this week? Or the Cowboys?

I'll be giving out my usual picks probably on Saturday (all the injury info in hand by then - 9-6 last week), but as far as Dallas - I like them, but not in love with it. I think I recapped that one pretty well - but I like the OVER play as long the weather cooperates (I don't care about rain, but I do mind wind). I just checked it and I had penciled it as about a 50-point line, and I see it is 48-49. That's close. Not in love with it.Detroit? They are tough to figure out - the basic premise for them is that if you get in Kitna's face, all bets are off. The Cards haven't had more than 4 sacks in a game all year, and they faced some pretty weak lines (STL, CAR).I don't have a good feel on this one and might just stay away. If you forced me I'd take Detroit only because their defense is forcing a lot of turnovers, and Kurt Warner is well known for that.

 

[Tanner9919]

you take Balt in times like this..that line looks odd because they are daring you to take Cincy, not the other way around. you are doing exactly what Vegas wants you to do, i.e, asking yourself 'How can the Ravens be favored?!?!?'...

Baltimore gets a few players back,while Cincy is regressing, they aren't good at all..they can't block, they can't tackle, and they can't do much else.

and, the Ravens looked like fools against Pittsburgh. FOOLS..

I'd bet they rebound in a BIG way this weekend..

you take Balt and RANCH it!

everything AND the kitchen sink...

 

[The Moz]

When the Spread seems too good to be true -- it always is !

Betting Cincy is a suckers bet.

 

[AB in DC]

If looking bad against Pittsburgh tells you something about Baltimore, what did it tell you about Cleveland? They've only gone 5-2 since their spanking.

Oh, and have you noticed that Cincinnati is a terrible team too?

Yes, Baltimore corners besides McAllister have been terrible. If McAllister is back this week, this should be an easy win for Baltimore. And if not, one bad team playing another bad team is never a "lock".

 

[AB in DC]

Bengals win in Baltimore following the same game plan as the Steelers, but with a little less margin.

And exactly how are they going to do this when Pittsburgh is #3 against the run, according to one measure, and Cincinnati is #26?All Baltimore needs is for McNair to not turn the ball over five times, like he did in week one. (And they still almost won that game -- in Cincinnati -- despite the turnover margin.)

 

[Assani Fisher]

Bengals on the road this year:

Loss 45-51

Loss 21-24

Loss 13-34

Loss 13-24

Loss 21-33

Total: 0-5 record, average score of 22.6-33.2

Ravens at home this year:

Win 20-13

Win 26-23

Win 22-3

Total: 3-0 record, average score of 22.66-13

Still confident?

This game is about matchups. I really don't care about the prior outcomes.

So how do you evaluate how good each player in "the matchups" is?

 

[The_Man]

Jeff and I know crappy football, and Baltimore is it.

This was easy money -- the only hard part was watching the game.

 

[-OZ-]

Jeff and I know crappy football, and Baltimore is it.This was easy money -- the only hard part was watching the game.

I stand by my comment

Stone Cold Lock of the Year to be the worst played game this week?

 

[Jene Bramel]

If that gameplan and effort (other than the defense) doesn't get Billick fired and/or beat up in the locker room by his defensive front seven, nothing will. Hope you guys made money on that one.

 

[PC Load Letter]

I wish Jeff would send out an email when he gets hunches like this.

 

[trader jake]

Nice call Jeff.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

money

 

[Magnus_CA]

I think Indy smakcing the Bolts around is a much bigger lock

 

[Reaper]

If that gameplan and effort (other than the defense) doesn't get Billick fired and/or beat up in the locker room by his defensive front seven, nothing will. Hope you guys made money on that one. :whoosh:

Where's the "Offensive Genius"...DONE.Good Call......

 

[NorrisB]

I think you gotta love the Bengals -2 vs. the ravens right now.

Jeff when are your predictions going to be out?

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I think you gotta love the Bengals -2 vs. the ravens right now.Jeff when are your predictions going to be out?

Hi NorrisB,Thanks for the reminder. I think I'm steering away from Week 1 from any bold statements - although you have to like the Giants and Philly this week.I'll have more to come both in the Shark Pool and in a new column this year.Enjoy the games.-Jeff

 

[NorrisB]

I think you gotta love the Bengals -2 vs. the ravens right now.Jeff when are your predictions going to be out?

Hi NorrisB,Thanks for the reminder. I think I'm steering away from Week 1 from any bold statements - although you have to like the Giants and Philly this week.I'll have more to come both in the Shark Pool and in a new column this year.Enjoy the games.-Jeff

Made a boatload last season

 

[North]

OK, I rarely do this, but I'm going on a :whoosh: of the YEAR here.

How is it possible that Baltimore is favored over Cincinnati?

Has anyone watched Monday Night Football ?

Um, this just in - their corners aren't good. Like, REALLY bad. Samari Rolle-over isn't even healthy enough to play and they are throwing out guys like Corey Ivy, which gives ivy a bad name in coverage. Well, he does move very slowly and might cover something if given several years, but you get the picture. The Baltimore D stops the run, but not the pass.... and Carson Palmer, Chris Henry, TJ Housh and Chad Johnson are a-comin'. Look out.

Yes the Bengals cannot shut down a passing game - IF ANY SEMBLANCE OF A PASSING GAME EXISTED. I'm talking to YOU McNair - who should be called "McN", because there is no "air" in his game any more.

Bengals win in Baltimore following the same game plan as the Steelers, but with a little less margin.

The only hope the Ravens have is McGahee scores 3 TDs, which isn't going to happen, or Billick throws Kyle Boller out there, which still isn't enough.

All 3 WRs score for Cincy and McGahee gets one too, but it isn't nearly enough. Stover can't make up this big of a difference.



CINCINNATI 34, BALTIMORE 23.

News Flash---Henry is out the first 4 weeks due to suspension, get your facts straight before making predictions. I agree Cincy will win but you lose some credibility when your facts aren't correct.

 

[renesauz]

OK, I rarely do this, but I'm going on a :whoosh: of the YEAR here.

News Flash---Henry is out the first 4 weeks due to suspension, get your facts straight before making predictions. I agree Cincy will win but you lose some credibility when your facts aren't correct.

Another news flash...check the posting date.

 

[NYRAGE]

OK, I rarely do this, but I'm going on a :whoosh: of the YEAR here.

How is it possible that Baltimore is favored over Cincinnati?

Has anyone watched Monday Night Football ?

Um, this just in - their corners aren't good. Like, REALLY bad. Samari Rolle-over isn't even healthy enough to play and they are throwing out guys like Corey Ivy, which gives ivy a bad name in coverage. Well, he does move very slowly and might cover something if given several years, but you get the picture. The Baltimore D stops the run, but not the pass.... and Carson Palmer, Chris Henry, TJ Housh and Chad Johnson are a-comin'. Look out.

Yes the Bengals cannot shut down a passing game - IF ANY SEMBLANCE OF A PASSING GAME EXISTED. I'm talking to YOU McNair - who should be called "McN", because there is no "air" in his game any more.

Bengals win in Baltimore following the same game plan as the Steelers, but with a little less margin.

The only hope the Ravens have is McGahee scores 3 TDs, which isn't going to happen, or Billick throws Kyle Boller out there, which still isn't enough.

All 3 WRs score for Cincy and McGahee gets one too, but it isn't nearly enough. Stover can't make up this big of a difference.



CINCINNATI 34, BALTIMORE 23.

News Flash---Henry is out the first 4 weeks due to suspension, get your facts straight before making predictions. I agree Cincy will win but you lose some credibility when your facts aren't correct.

Notice the date of this post? Although, Chris Henry was actually suspended for the first 8 games last season.

 

[Itchy Amos]

OK, I rarely do this, but I'm going on a :whoosh: of the YEAR here.

How is it possible that Baltimore is favored over Cincinnati?

Has anyone watched Monday Night Football ?

Um, this just in - their corners aren't good. Like, REALLY bad. Samari Rolle-over isn't even healthy enough to play and they are throwing out guys like Corey Ivy, which gives ivy a bad name in coverage. Well, he does move very slowly and might cover something if given several years, but you get the picture. The Baltimore D stops the run, but not the pass.... and Carson Palmer, Chris Henry, TJ Housh and Chad Johnson are a-comin'. Look out.

Yes the Bengals cannot shut down a passing game - IF ANY SEMBLANCE OF A PASSING GAME EXISTED. I'm talking to YOU McNair - who should be called "McN", because there is no "air" in his game any more.

Bengals win in Baltimore following the same game plan as the Steelers, but with a little less margin.

The only hope the Ravens have is McGahee scores 3 TDs, which isn't going to happen, or Billick throws Kyle Boller out there, which still isn't enough.

All 3 WRs score for Cincy and McGahee gets one too, but it isn't nearly enough. Stover can't make up this big of a difference.



CINCINNATI 34, BALTIMORE 23.

News Flash---Henry is out the first 4 weeks due to suspension, get your facts straight before making predictions. I agree Cincy will win but you lose some credibility when your facts aren't correct.

Lets not be too critical of a prediction from last year.

 

[North]

OK, I rarely do this, but I'm going on a :whoosh: of the YEAR here.

News Flash---Henry is out the first 4 weeks due to suspension, get your facts straight before making predictions. I agree Cincy will win but you lose some credibility when your facts aren't correct.

Another news flash...check the posting date.

Sorry, with this on the first page I thought it referred to this weeks game. My bad!