jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Is there a widely accepted count for ideal numbers of Ds and Ks? 2 of each? 3?
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Subscriber Contest to be Unveiled by Wednesday Morning (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
I don't think there's anything widely accepted. Given how cheap they are, I see no reason to have less than 3 of each. Defense doesn't score much unless there is a TD scored, typically. So if I'm going to carry a 4th, it'll be a D over a K on the hopes that it increases my odds of getting a 10+ pt performance out of the position. With 3 kickers, the fourth probably doesn't increase your score too much unless your other 3 are on putrid offenses.jdoggydogg said:
Captain Hook
Footballguy
Too bad that all the subscribers who live in the six banned states can't participate in the prizes
(HULK)
(Smash)
Hello from Maryland!
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
I think the RBs as a whole are very expensive. Doesnt seem to be much value under 10 bucks.
Agreed. There are only a couple guys of interest there. I've got a 30 man roster and I've only got 1 RB under $11.
Maryland passed a law last year where it is now legal to participate in fantasy games for prizes. You can now sign up for Fanduel and win the subscriber contest. I'm pretty excited about it. http://blogs.findlaw.com/tarnished_twenty/2012/10/new-fantasy-football-law-legalizes-fantasy-league-prizes.htmlHello from Maryland!
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
HairySasquatch
Footballguy
Last year five out of the top ten went with 3 kickers, while the other five went with 2. As for defense, six teams went with 3 and the rest went with 2. Most of them went with all $3 kickers and $3 defenses with a couple teams splurging with a $4 defense. Looks like the top ten from last year used their money in other areas.
I really want to have 3 of each, but right now I only have 2. If I had to choose which one to increase to 3 first it would be a kicker. Defenses can't get hurt. Kickers on the other hand can...and last year I had a kicker who got cut.
Only having one kicker for half of the season is not good in this contest.
(HULK)
(Smash)
Oh hell yes!If I'm already paid for this year, signing up now will add a year to my subscription, correct?beast8812 said:Maryland passed a law last year where it is now legal to participate in fantasy games for prizes. You can now sign up for Fanduel and win the subscriber contest. I'm pretty excited about it. http://blogs.findlaw.com/tarnished_twenty/2012/10/new-fantasy-football-law-legalizes-fantasy-league-prizes.html(HULK) said:Hello from Maryland!Captain Hook said:
I've looked at the top 10 teams in the past and what I finally decided was that no matter how long you look at them and dissect those teams, what you are really looking at are just the 10 luckiest teams. There is usually no great strategy that got them there. If they only rolled with 2 kickers then somehow they got the two guys that always balanced each other out or had a huge game when their top WR was on bye.Last year five out of the top ten went with 3 kickers, while the other five went with 2. As for defense, six teams went with 3 and the rest went with 2. Most of them went with all $3 kickers and $3 defenses with a couple teams splurging with a $4 defense. Looks like the top ten from last year used their money in other areas.
I really want to have 3 of each, but right now I only have 2. If I had to choose which one to increase to 3 first it would be a kicker. Defenses can't get hurt. Kickers on the other hand can...and last year I had a kicker who got cut.
I don't feel that lucky, so I prefer to stick with 3 of each. Defenses don't get hurt, but they also don't score 10+ points unless something unusual happens, whereas kickers almost always score 10 points unless something unusual happens (team gets shut out or only scores touchdowns). So that's why I would suggest going with more defenses than kickers.
It's key to remember that defenses don't score points like we're used to. If a defense allows zero points but has zero sacks and zero turnovers then the defense scores zero points for your fantasy team. There is no 8 points for 6-13 points allowed or any of that. The only things that count are sacks, turnovers, TDs, and safeties.
HairySasquatch
Footballguy
I agree that you have to have a lot of luck to win this thing. The question is, if you have to choose one or the other, will an extra $3 kicker and defense get you over the hump, or would it be better to take an extra $3 flyer at RB, WR, TE? There isn't an answer to this question really. If you pick this years James Jones at WR, then the $ is probably better spent there. Or if you can get this years Prater at kicker and Seattle's defense ($4 dollars last year), it could be better to go that route. We won't know the answer until the fat lady sings.I've looked at the top 10 teams in the past and what I finally decided was that no matter how long you look at them and dissect those teams, what you are really looking at are just the 10 luckiest teams. There is usually no great strategy that got them there. If they only rolled with 2 kickers then somehow they got the two guys that always balanced each other out or had a huge game when their top WR was on bye.Last year five out of the top ten went with 3 kickers, while the other five went with 2. As for defense, six teams went with 3 and the rest went with 2. Most of them went with all $3 kickers and $3 defenses with a couple teams splurging with a $4 defense. Looks like the top ten from last year used their money in other areas.
I really want to have 3 of each, but right now I only have 2. If I had to choose which one to increase to 3 first it would be a kicker. Defenses can't get hurt. Kickers on the other hand can...and last year I had a kicker who got cut.
I don't feel that lucky, so I prefer to stick with 3 of each. Defenses don't get hurt, but they also don't score 10+ points unless something unusual happens, whereas kickers almost always score 10 points unless something unusual happens (team gets shut out or only scores touchdowns). So that's why I would suggest going with more defenses than kickers.
It's key to remember that defenses don't score points like we're used to. If a defense allows zero points but has zero sacks and zero turnovers then the defense scores zero points for your fantasy team. There is no 8 points for 6-13 points allowed or any of that. The only things that count are sacks, turnovers, TDs, and safeties.
I guess it depends on your team, but I've only got 1 player at $3 or less and I've got a 30-man roster. I think a third defense is much more likely to contribute to my team than a $3 RB/WR/TE. I mean, you are almost certainly going to get a few points out of that defense, but how many $3 or less players actually did anything last year? Maybe 5% of them? Right now I've got 6 RBs, 10 WRs, and 4 TEs. I'd have to have done something wrong in order to need a $3 player to step in there even once, but if I have two $3 defenses, then I'd expect the third one to see action 33% of the time, or the 4th to see action 25% of the time.
rustycolts
Footballguy
Largest roster I have entered in this contest so far.Hopefully it will get me a little further than I have made it in the past.
2 QBs 19
6 RBs 102
13 Wrs 88
3 TEs 26
3 Ks 9
2 Ds 6
2 QBs 19
6 RBs 102
13 Wrs 88
3 TEs 26
3 Ks 9
2 Ds 6
karmarooster
Footballguy
Currently I'm trying to run a bigger roster too... but not quite that many.
4 QBs - $36
5 RBs - $81
7 WRs, - $78
5 TEs - $36
5 Ks - $15
1 Def - $4
27 total
4 QBs - $36
5 RBs - $81
7 WRs, - $78
5 TEs - $36
5 Ks - $15
1 Def - $4
27 total
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Nice, I love the 23 kicker lineup. Although you greatly overpaid this year.
Even if you picked the 23 most expensive kickers it's only $86. 
Robbie Cooper
Footballguy
Lots of mid-price value at WR this year. You could add 7-8 guys from the $8-$17 range and have a pretty nice WR corps.
Unlike most previous years, there doesn't seem to be any obvious Every-entry-will-have-this-value-player in the $3-$7 range, like last year's James Jones ($3) or Brandon Myers ($2), Antonio Brown in 2011 ($3, or Arian Foster ($3) in 2009.
With that said, the new pricing this year, plus the subtle rules change (2 flex) has resulted in my smallest roster ever in this contest:
2 QB - $26
4 RB - $88
8 WR - $81
3 TE - $38
3 K - $10
2 D - $7
_________
22 players total at $250
Unlike most previous years, there doesn't seem to be any obvious Every-entry-will-have-this-value-player in the $3-$7 range, like last year's James Jones ($3) or Brandon Myers ($2), Antonio Brown in 2011 ($3, or Arian Foster ($3) in 2009.
With that said, the new pricing this year, plus the subtle rules change (2 flex) has resulted in my smallest roster ever in this contest:
2 QB - $26
4 RB - $88
8 WR - $81
3 TE - $38
3 K - $10
2 D - $7
_________
22 players total at $250
Mario Kart
Footballguy
Um, not sure if you saw or not but Dodds did that on purpose.
Obviously he made the players with later BYEs cheaper as to promote a good mix of players being picked.
Did he specifically single out weeks 10 and 12?
BaBastage
Footballguy
I used to have plans of completely solving the large vs small roster debate. Basically, when you want to calculate the odds of two probabilities, you multiply them together for the overall probability.
For example, when flipping coins, you have a 50% probability of landing heads each toss. So the odds of flipping two heads in a row is .5 * .5 = .25 (25%, or one of out of four, which most of us inherently know.)
So the odds of the contest boil down to: (Odds of surviving weeks 1-14) * (Odds of winning the final 250 after you made the final cut).
From there, you could model the optimum teams for both parts of the contest in order to give you the greatest net odds. (Since roster sizes are 18 to 30, there are thirteen competing team sizes, meaning 169 different permutations.)
There's more you could do to finesse the model. Figuring out the 1-14 odds is probably the easier of the two equations. The final cut could involve a simulation of combining different weeks to add up three-week stretches, to see what team sizes consistently score higher.)
Unfortunately, you could go through all the rigamarole and it wouldn't mean much since the scoring and costs change slightly from year to year.
Anyhow... currently sitting at a 22 person roster. Definitely feeling that QB's scoring fewer points this year, and fewer values at the RB position change the dynamic even more than last few years.
I'm too lazy to check my work though.
Edited for a minor correction, thanks TMWNN.
For example, when flipping coins, you have a 50% probability of landing heads each toss. So the odds of flipping two heads in a row is .5 * .5 = .25 (25%, or one of out of four, which most of us inherently know.)
So the odds of the contest boil down to: (Odds of surviving weeks 1-14) * (Odds of winning the final 250 after you made the final cut).
From there, you could model the optimum teams for both parts of the contest in order to give you the greatest net odds. (Since roster sizes are 18 to 30, there are thirteen competing team sizes, meaning 169 different permutations.)
There's more you could do to finesse the model. Figuring out the 1-14 odds is probably the easier of the two equations. The final cut could involve a simulation of combining different weeks to add up three-week stretches, to see what team sizes consistently score higher.)
Unfortunately, you could go through all the rigamarole and it wouldn't mean much since the scoring and costs change slightly from year to year.
Anyhow... currently sitting at a 22 person roster. Definitely feeling that QB's scoring fewer points this year, and fewer values at the RB position change the dynamic even more than last few years.
I'm too lazy to check my work though.
Edited for a minor correction, thanks TMWNN.
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The Man With No Name
Footballguy
From there, you could model the optimum teams for both parts of the contest in order to give you the greatest net odds. (Since roster sizes are 18 to 30, there are twelve competing team sizes, meaning 144 different permutations.)
I'm too lazy to check my work though.
That is thirteen competing team sizes, not twelve.
I'm too lazy to check my work though.
That is thirteen competing team sizes, not twelve.
plastik
Footballguy
On a different note, I had hoped they'd change the prize structure to make it a little less top-heavy, but it didn't happen this year. I finished in the 20s last year and got $40, which I'm not going to complain about because it was exciting and generally awesome, but you'd think finishing in the top 30 of something like 13k entries would be worth a little larger portion of the pot. I'd like to see the top slot taken down to something like 12k, with the remainder distributed a bit more over the top 50.
Robbie Cooper
Footballguy
I know that it is not feasible for David to include every single NFL roster player into the Subscriber contest, but every year there seems to be 1-2 players that I wish were included in the $3-$4 "value" slots who are not available to be selected.
This year includes WR Marquis Goodwin and now TE Dallas Clark for me.
What other players are not on this list that you would have added to your roster for $3-$5?
This year includes WR Marquis Goodwin and now TE Dallas Clark for me.
What other players are not on this list that you would have added to your roster for $3-$5?
steveski
Footballguy
Zach Sudfeld
Dickson looked like a no-brainer for a little while there....but that didn't last long.
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northwoods
Footballguy
Happens every year, most noticeable with the kickers where not all 32 make the list. How can I get thru this year without having Kickalicious on my team????
I know that the 18 vs 30 man roster is debated every year, but I almost feel like the answer is somewhere in the middle. When you get to the end, you have to have the studs to put up big points when it counts, but you still need the depth to get there.
Or maybe this is just me justifying why I always end up between 22-25 players The obsession continues!!
QB - 2 / $30
RB - 5 / $85
WR - 8 / $92
TE - 4 / $31
K - 2 / $6
DEF - 2 / $6
23 Players
Or maybe this is just me justifying why I always end up between 22-25 players
The obsession continues!!QB - 2 / $30
RB - 5 / $85
WR - 8 / $92
TE - 4 / $31
K - 2 / $6
DEF - 2 / $6
23 Players
Jarrett Boykin
Terrelle Pryor
Stills or Toon (whoever wins the Saints 3rd WR job)
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FUBAR
Footballguy
yep.I know that the 18 vs 30 man roster is debated every year, but I almost feel like the answer is somewhere in the middle. When you get to the end, you have to have the studs to put up big points when it counts, but you still need the depth to get there.
Or maybe this is just me justifying why I always end up between 22-25 players
QB - 2 / $30
RB - 5 / $85
WR - 8 / $92
TE - 4 / $31
K - 2 / $6
DEF - 2 / $6
23 Players
Currently:
QB - 2 / $22 (one constant I think huge value, the other keeps changing depending on risk tolerance at the time)
RB - 6 / $78 (3 constants)
WR - 7 / $84 (constantly in flux depending on my risk tolerance at the time)
TE - 4 / $50 (2 have changed, may change again)
PK - 3 / $10 (this hasn't changed since first submission)
TD - 2 / $6 (fluctuates whenever I have an extra dollar)
24 Players
FUBAR
Footballguy
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Honing in...
2 QB: $33
6 RB: $100
9 WR: $49
2 TE: $50
3 K: $9
3 D: $9
2 QB: $33
6 RB: $100
9 WR: $49
2 TE: $50
3 K: $9
3 D: $9
Scoresman
Footballguy
HairySasquatch
Footballguy
These two weeks are loaded with good choices for this contest...but investing a lot of money here is looking for trouble.
I am curious what you think is too much in those 2 weeks? I am looking at it as a lot of people should have a decent amount invested in each week - so thinking of having around $40-$50 in week 10 and $35-$40 in week 12. Obviously raises the chances of getting bounced those 2 weeks, but I think you need to take some chances in order to have a team that can win it all in a 2 week shootout; would love to get a sanity check here.
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HairySasquatch
Footballguy
We can break it down mathematically first. 250 (money) / 9 (bye weeks)= $27.75 per week. Just based on that alone, you are a high. Throw in that you are spending that much on two late round byes where the team scores are going to be higher, you will have to be lucky to survive.
That being said, I'm in the low 30's in both of those weeks right now. I think more players with later byes will be selected this year. Combine the fact that there a lot of good players with late byes with Dodds giving them a little discount I can see them being a popular choice. Especially from people who don't pay attention to bye weeks.
rustycolts
Footballguy
Week 8 is going to be my tricky week. There are 6 teams on bye that week. So I'm sure others will be in the same boat as me that week.Hopefully cutline will be low because of all the byes.I have $90 bucks invested that week so if I'm still alive then I will be sweating bullets.
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FUBAR
Footballguy
chocula
Footballguy
I feel like I am completely lost this year. I had a pretty good year last time, but just feel that I cannot put together much of a squad this year.
I guess I will be the first to post my team, so here goes.
Feel free to laugh, critique or give advice on what I need to work on.
QB - Andrew Luck - IND/8 - $16
QB - Philip Rivers - SD/8 - $11
QB - Blaine Gabbert - JAX/9 - $4
RB - Doug Martin - TB/5 - $34
RB - Frank Gore - SF/9 - $20
RB - Bryce Brown - PHI/12 - $11
RB - Ronnie Hillman - DEN/9 - $11
WR - Calvin Johnson - DET/9 - $31
WR - Wes Welker - DEN/9 - $19
WR - Justin Blackmon - JAX/9 - $11
WR - Rueben Randle - NYG/9 - $8
WR - Brandon LaFell - CAR/4 - $7
TE - Tony Gonzalez - ATL/6 - $21
TE - Owen Daniels - HOU/8 - $14
TE - Zach Miller - SEA/12 - $6
PK - Stephen Gostkowski - NE/10 - $5
PK - Garrett Hartley - NO/7 - $4
PK - Kai Forbath - WAS/5 - $3
TD - Seattle Seahawks - SEA/12 - $6
TD - Baltimore Ravens - BAL/8 - $4
TD - Arizona Cardinals - ARI/9 - $4
I guess I will be the first to post my team, so here goes.
Feel free to laugh, critique or give advice on what I need to work on.
QB - Andrew Luck - IND/8 - $16
QB - Philip Rivers - SD/8 - $11
QB - Blaine Gabbert - JAX/9 - $4
RB - Doug Martin - TB/5 - $34
RB - Frank Gore - SF/9 - $20
RB - Bryce Brown - PHI/12 - $11
RB - Ronnie Hillman - DEN/9 - $11
WR - Calvin Johnson - DET/9 - $31
WR - Wes Welker - DEN/9 - $19
WR - Justin Blackmon - JAX/9 - $11
WR - Rueben Randle - NYG/9 - $8
WR - Brandon LaFell - CAR/4 - $7
TE - Tony Gonzalez - ATL/6 - $21
TE - Owen Daniels - HOU/8 - $14
TE - Zach Miller - SEA/12 - $6
PK - Stephen Gostkowski - NE/10 - $5
PK - Garrett Hartley - NO/7 - $4
PK - Kai Forbath - WAS/5 - $3
TD - Seattle Seahawks - SEA/12 - $6
TD - Baltimore Ravens - BAL/8 - $4
TD - Arizona Cardinals - ARI/9 - $4
rustycolts
Footballguy
Robbie Cooper
Footballguy
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