Sucking For Luck... IN FANTASY (1 Viewer)

[Deamon]

In search I only found the topics about nfl teams, so I apologize if this is already a thread. I'm curious what people's thoughts are on how this will affect this years fantasy strategies. In some redraft, and more so in dynasty leagues, I know the worst record gets the top pick in next years draft. With Luck being the clear #1 pick in dynasty leagues (and maybe some keeper leagues depending on the rules), will teams try to lose at the end of the year to get this pick? How are commissioners handling this situation?

 

[Doctor Detroit]

As far as fantasy goes I think there have been a lot better dynasty players than Andrew Luck. I guess if you have a QB heavy league it might be a concern but he could be drafted by the Colts and be on the bench for two years. Tanking is always an issue but it seems to me that this year would be no different than any other, Luck will be a better football player than he will be a fantasy player.

 

[Deamon]

As far as fantasy goes I think there have been a lot better dynasty players than Andrew Luck. I guess if you have a QB heavy league it might be a concern but he could be drafted by the Colts and be on the bench for two years. Tanking is always an issue but it seems to me that this year would be no different than any other, Luck will be a better football player than he will be a fantasy player.

True. I don't really have much expertise in dynasty leagues and this year joined my first one so thought it would be interesting. I guess every year it could be an issue with a highly touted RB or WR coming out. I'm sure he will still put up pretty good fantasy stats though, so for a dynasty league I'm guessing next year he will still be the top pick. You could get 10+ solid years of fantasy production at the qb position (ala Peyton).

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

In search I only found the topics about nfl teams, so I apologize if this is already a thread. I'm curious what people's thoughts are on how this will affect this years fantasy strategies. In some redraft, and more so in dynasty leagues, I know the worst record gets the top pick in next years draft. With Luck being the clear #1 pick in dynasty leagues (and maybe some keeper leagues depending on the rules), will teams try to lose at the end of the year to get this pick? How are commissioners handling this situation?

It wouldn't be sucking for Luck. It would be sucking for Trent Richardson. Luck is one of the best QB's prospects to come out in a long time, but he is still a QB. In fantasy, there just isn't the same separation between QB1 and QB 12 as there is between RB1 and RB 24. In normal scoring settings I saw Bradford/Stafford end up around the 8-12 range in the first round typically. Luck is more highly touted, so it wouldn't surprise me to see him around the top 5. But there is very little chance he gets taken ahead of any 1st round RB's or WR's.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

As far as fantasy goes I think there have been a lot better dynasty players than Andrew Luck. I guess if you have a QB heavy league it might be a concern but he could be drafted by the Colts and be on the bench for two years. Tanking is always an issue but it seems to me that this year would be no different than any other, Luck will be a better football player than he will be a fantasy player.

True. I don't really have much expertise in dynasty leagues and this year joined my first one so thought it would be interesting. I guess every year it could be an issue with a highly touted RB or WR coming out. I'm sure he will still put up pretty good fantasy stats though, so for a dynasty league I'm guessing next year he will still be the top pick. You could get 10+ solid years of fantasy production at the qb position (ala Peyton).

Oh yeah, he's a long-term solution in dynasty leagues with probably quite a few top 5 years in there. I think each league (especially dynasty leagues) needs to have rules in place to prevent tanking anyway, so maybe this is your cue to create those parameters.

 

[Deamon]

In search I only found the topics about nfl teams, so I apologize if this is already a thread. I'm curious what people's thoughts are on how this will affect this years fantasy strategies. In some redraft, and more so in dynasty leagues, I know the worst record gets the top pick in next years draft. With Luck being the clear #1 pick in dynasty leagues (and maybe some keeper leagues depending on the rules), will teams try to lose at the end of the year to get this pick? How are commissioners handling this situation?

It wouldn't be sucking for Luck. It would be sucking for Trent Richardson. Luck is one of the best QB's prospects to come out in a long time, but he is still a QB. In fantasy, there just isn't the same separation between QB1 and QB 12 as there is between RB1 and RB 24. In normal scoring settings I saw Bradford/Stafford end up around the 8-12 range in the first round typically. Luck is more highly touted, so it wouldn't surprise me to see him around the top 5. But there is very little chance he gets taken ahead of any 1st round RB's or WR's.

Interesting. Even though Luck could provide 10 years of top 5 qb stats, or a RB who faces more injury risk and whose avg career is much shorter then qbs?

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

Barring injury the top 3 picks in dynasty rookie drafts in 2012 are:

PPR

---

1 - Justin Blackmon

2 - Trent Richardson

3 - Alshon Jeffrey

NON-PPR

-------

1 - Trent Richardson

2 - Justin Blackmon

3 - Alshon Jeffrey

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

Barring injury the top 3 picks in dynasty rookie drafts in 2012 arePR---1 - Justin Blackmon2 - Trent Richardson3 - Alshon JeffreyNON-PPR-------1 - Trent Richardson2 - Justin Blackmon3 - Alshon Jeffrey

I'm partial to Michael Floyd over Jeffrey, but I think it is pretty close either way.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Blackmon is "special" and a rare immediate impact NFL WR in year one.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Barring injury the top 3 picks in dynasty rookie drafts in 2012 arePR---1 - Justin Blackmon2 - Trent Richardson3 - Alshon JeffreyNON-PPR-------1 - Trent Richardson2 - Justin Blackmon3 - Alshon Jeffrey

I want the Rams to grab any of them...whichever one goes there will be my #1

 

[strong]

Oh yeah, he's a long-term solution in dynasty leagues with probably quite a few top 5 years in there. I think each league (especially dynasty leagues) needs to have rules in place to prevent tanking anyway, so maybe this is your cue to create those parameters.

that's unlikely to happen. not saying he doesn't look NFL ready. it's just not too many QBs do that and it takes a combination of skill, pro development, and the right team. he's got the college skill. who knows about pro development and the situation yet.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

If someone wants to tank there's little you can do to stop them. You obviously should require them to start players who are actually playing...but folks can easily bench non studs for "sleepers" that don't pan out. I just figure these type of players will fizzle out soon enough. The only other option would be to do an NBA type lottery pick drawing.

 

[FallenHero32]

Pretty easy in my league. Those that are clearly tanking, a vote gets put out to the league and if the league votes to punish, its a 50 dollar fine for tanking. There is a difference between putting out flyers hoping to hit a homerun with them and clearly sitting your studs in place of players that might only see 10 snaps or so. Hasn't happened yet as we are all friends and bragging rights for beating other people are more important to us then getting the #1 overall.

 

[Badgers Fan]

I am not in a fantasy football keeper league this year, but this is how my keeper baseball league does it:

12 teams. 7 teams make the playoffs (I know, too high. I won back to back years though, so no complaining. Anyways..)

the team that finishes 8th (1st spot OUT of the playoffs) gets 1st pick. and then it goes from there. so to make it simpler:

1st pick- 8th place

2nd pick- 9th place

3rd pick- 10th place

4th pick- 11th place

5th pick- 12th place

6th pick- 7th place

7th pick- 6th place

8th pick- 5th place

...and so on.

 

[Chadstroma]

I have one keeper team that I am rebuilding with. I drafted with that in mind and expected my win/loss to not be so good and ending up with a higher draft pick. However, I don't make decisions based on intentionally sucking in as much as not picking up players because they might bring too many points or trying to start the weakest lineup etc. I do make decisions based on what will be the best for my next year in who I pick up or keep on the team or trade. In the meantime, I field the best team I can with the team I have using that strategy. Luck really does not factor into any of my decisions.

 

[kardplayer]

My dynasty league minimizes tanking by taking each of the non-playoff teams best possible starting lineups for each week of the season and calculating total "optimal" points. Least points picks first, 2nd least goes second etc.

You could still in theory tank your way out of a playoff spot if you felt like you had no chance to win the championship, so would prefer the slightly higher pick... but that would be nuts.

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

I am not in a fantasy football keeper league this year, but this is how my keeper baseball league does it:12 teams. 7 teams make the playoffs (I know, too high. I won back to back years though, so no complaining. Anyways..)the team that finishes 8th (1st spot OUT of the playoffs) gets 1st pick. and then it goes from there. so to make it simpler:1st pick- 8th place2nd pick- 9th place3rd pick- 10th place4th pick- 11th place5th pick- 12th place6th pick- 7th place7th pick- 6th place8th pick- 5th place...and so on.

My dynasty league minimizes tanking by taking each of the non-playoff teams best possible starting lineups for each week of the season and calculating total "optimal" points. Least points picks first, 2nd least goes second etc.You could still in theory tank your way out of a playoff spot if you felt like you had no chance to win the championship, so would prefer the slightly higher pick... but that would be nuts.

Absolutely hate both of these ideas. The worst teams need to have access to adding the best talent. These do not do that.

 

[KentGraham10]

There are two teams in my league that my consider it. We have three teams that have two top 12 QBs but they won't trade, so those two ####ty teams are stuck starting Kevin Kolb and Jason Campbell (not sure who he's starting now).

 

[Dr. Octopus]

In search I only found the topics about nfl teams, so I apologize if this is already a thread. I'm curious what people's thoughts are on how this will affect this years fantasy strategies. In some redraft, and more so in dynasty leagues, I know the worst record gets the top pick in next years draft. With Luck being the clear #1 pick in dynasty leagues (and maybe some keeper leagues depending on the rules), will teams try to lose at the end of the year to get this pick? How are commissioners handling this situation?

This could happen any year and I'm not sure Luck is the clear cut No. 1 in dynasty rookie drafts anway.The way its dealt with it to ask any owner to justfiy any "questionable" line-up decisions if it appears he's tanking. A good commisioner will put a stop to it before such a tactic gains any traction.

 

[gandalas]

In search I only found the topics about nfl teams, so I apologize if this is already a thread. I'm curious what people's thoughts are on how this will affect this years fantasy strategies. In some redraft, and more so in dynasty leagues, I know the worst record gets the top pick in next years draft. With Luck being the clear #1 pick in dynasty leagues (and maybe some keeper leagues depending on the rules), will teams try to lose at the end of the year to get this pick? How are commissioners handling this situation?

It wouldn't be sucking for Luck. It would be sucking for Trent Richardson. Luck is one of the best QB's prospects to come out in a long time, but he is still a QB. In fantasy, there just isn't the same separation between QB1 and QB 12 as there is between RB1 and RB 24. In normal scoring settings I saw Bradford/Stafford end up around the 8-12 range in the first round typically. Luck is more highly touted, so it wouldn't surprise me to see him around the top 5. But there is very little chance he gets taken ahead of any 1st round RB's or WR's.

And tell me who you would rather have at this point from LAST draft? Cam Newton or Mark Ingram? I went with Ingram at 1.1, and am regretting it...

 

[5-ish Finkle]

If someone wants to tank there's little you can do to stop them. You obviously should require them to start players who are actually playing...but folks can easily bench non studs for "sleepers" that don't pan out. I just figure these type of players will fizzle out soon enough. The only other option would be to do an NBA type lottery pick drawing.

There's something that can be done to totally stop them...or to at least punish them for doing so, if they choose to do it anyway. You have the league institute a rule that requires a team to actually win to get the 1st overall pick.So, in a 12-teamer, the top 4 teams go to the regular playoffs as normal. They will have picks 9-12 based on order of finish in descending order. Then you could do something like have the remaining 8 teams go to the "Toilet bowl bracket" in an all-play, two week playoff. Draft picks are determined in ascending order with the winner of that bracket getting pick #1, runner up gets #2, etc, etc. You gain nothing by tanking in a set up like this, unless the tanker feels that the 8th pick is a huge improvement over the 12th pick. Or your league could even have two "losers brackets" if they didn't want to do an all-play gimmick, where the worst 4 teams play in a 2 week bracket to determine picks 1-4 and the 4 remaining teams playing in a 2 week bracket for picks 5-8, again having the picks determined in ascending order based on finish.

It ain't perfect, but it absolutely makes teams have to win to get better draft position.

 

[Carolina Hustler]

In 2 QB leagues I suspect Luck (barring any set backs) will be the first overall rookie pick. Which in turn could be the pick someone intentionally sucked to get.

But in dynasty leagues, this isn't a new idea. Some teams will be willing to turn in a poor seasons performance in order to get a high draft pick, in any format and for players other than Luck. FF rookie drafts are less complicated than the NFL draft as far as trade value goes. It's a lot easier to trade a top FF rookie pick than it is in the NFL.

Luck is a less certain prospect then some of the other players in RB or WR heavy leagues, and most certainly will not be the first overall pick in those leagues. Yet there will be teams that 'stop trying as hard' in those leagues as well.. Not specifically for Luck, but for another player, or an unknown player at this point. Just to receive that high draft pick.

In dynasty, you make moves based on winning now or you make moves based on winning later. Sometimes when a team enters the season knowing he won't have a shot at the play offs, or at some point during the season when the playoffs seem to be out of reach, he'll switch from 'win now' to 'win in the future'.. Trading away veteran players, or marginal or 1 year starters for rookie picks and or younger players. This makes it less likely for him to win this season and more likely to have a higher draft pick..

Very wide and uncertain grey area between tanking, and building for the future.. But intentionally tanking in order to get high draft picks is frowned upon in FF and in some leagues against the rules..

 

[Carolina Hustler]

If someone wants to tank there's little you can do to stop them. You obviously should require them to start players who are actually playing...but folks can easily bench non studs for "sleepers" that don't pan out. I just figure these type of players will fizzle out soon enough. The only other option would be to do an NBA type lottery pick drawing.

There's something that can be done to totally stop them...or to at least punish them for doing so, if they choose to do it anyway. You have the league institute a rule that requires a team to actually win to get the 1st overall pick.So, in a 12-teamer, the top 4 teams go to the regular playoffs as normal. They will have picks 9-12 based on order of finish in descending order. Then you could do something like have the remaining 8 teams go to the "Toilet bowl bracket" in an all-play, two week playoff. Draft picks are determined in ascending order with the winner of that bracket getting pick #1, runner up gets #2, etc, etc. You gain nothing by tanking in a set up like this, unless the tanker feels that the 8th pick is a huge improvement over the 12th pick. Or your league could even have two "losers brackets" if they didn't want to do an all-play gimmick, where the worst 4 teams play in a 2 week bracket to determine picks 1-4 and the 4 remaining teams playing in a 2 week bracket for picks 5-8, again having the picks determined in ascending order based on finish.

It ain't perfect, but it absolutely makes teams have to win to get better draft position.

The better plan is to kick a shady owner. Because in a league where all of the owners are honest, this kills the guy who needs the high picks the most.. They will have less opportunities to rebuild, because the guy with the worst team will likely not win the toilet bowl...

 

[Carolina Hustler]

And tell me who you would rather have at this point from LAST draft? Cam Newton or Mark Ingram? I went with Ingram at 1.1, and am regretting it...

This is almost always the case.. If you could predict the future it would take the fun out of prospecting and drafting wouldn't it.. Newton proves nothing as far as Luck goes.. Mike Williams was the Darling from last years rookie daft, but look at him now.. Matthews didn't do much last season and is putting up good #'s now.. Bradford was killing it last year and stinking it up today... Moreno and Wells were top picks, stunk for 2 seasons, and Wells is performing now but Moreno still isn't.. Crabtree.. Young.. Lynch.. Stewart.. You can't base anything for Luck, Ingram, Newton, or Richardson on previous years draft with any certainty..

 

[rickyg]

Our dynasty league has provisions against tanking that seem to work well:

1) every owner is responsible for fielding an active lineup every week. No dead spots on starting lineups (with the exception of a kicker on a bye week). Failure to come results in losing your first rd rookie draft pick. A 2nd infraction loses your 2nd rd pick, and a 3rd infraction get you kicked out ofthe league!

2) the 2 commissioners (I am one) have the authority to force people to field their best payers if we feel they are benching them for scrubs. This is acting in the best interests of the league. Also if we suspect that an owner is doing that we will give one warning. If he does it again he is out of the league.

3) we have a toilet bowl playoffs set up for the bottom 6 teams that don't make the playoffs. The top seeded toilet bowl teams get bye weeks in week 14 (a great inventive to have the best record possible even if you are out of the playoffs), and the winner of the toilet bowl is awarded the #1 pick in the following years rookie draft.

This dynasty league is in its 4th year and these rules seem to work well. No one tanks.

 

[Touchdown Syndrome]

I concur with the idea that this year is no different from any other year, Luck or no Luck.

As has been mentioned, Luck may be the first rookie taken in 2 QB leagues, but Richardson and Blackmon are superior fantasy prospects for the vast majority...at least for 2012.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

If someone wants to tank there's little you can do to stop them. You obviously should require them to start players who are actually playing...but folks can easily bench non studs for "sleepers" that don't pan out. I just figure these type of players will fizzle out soon enough. The only other option would be to do an NBA type lottery pick drawing.

There's something that can be done to totally stop them...or to at least punish them for doing so, if they choose to do it anyway. You have the league institute a rule that requires a team to actually win to get the 1st overall pick.So, in a 12-teamer, the top 4 teams go to the regular playoffs as normal. They will have picks 9-12 based on order of finish in descending order. Then you could do something like have the remaining 8 teams go to the "Toilet bowl bracket" in an all-play, two week playoff. Draft picks are determined in ascending order with the winner of that bracket getting pick #1, runner up gets #2, etc, etc. You gain nothing by tanking in a set up like this, unless the tanker feels that the 8th pick is a huge improvement over the 12th pick. Or your league could even have two "losers brackets" if they didn't want to do an all-play gimmick, where the worst 4 teams play in a 2 week bracket to determine picks 1-4 and the 4 remaining teams playing in a 2 week bracket for picks 5-8, again having the picks determined in ascending order based on finish.

It ain't perfect, but it absolutely makes teams have to win to get better draft position.

In that case you're preventing the worst team from getting the best pick. For me, I'm in a 30 team league. If you don't have a qb (and several teams don't), you're toast. Even if you want to win. Then again I don't see a big problem with tanking (as long as it's not blatant like benching Calvin for Ogletree).

 

[BallparkFrank]

Is not filling a bye week position in dynasty for a team that has no chance of making the playoffs considered tanking if there are no clear drops?

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

In search I only found the topics about nfl teams, so I apologize if this is already a thread. I'm curious what people's thoughts are on how this will affect this years fantasy strategies. In some redraft, and more so in dynasty leagues, I know the worst record gets the top pick in next years draft. With Luck being the clear #1 pick in dynasty leagues (and maybe some keeper leagues depending on the rules), will teams try to lose at the end of the year to get this pick? How are commissioners handling this situation?

It wouldn't be sucking for Luck. It would be sucking for Trent Richardson. Luck is one of the best QB's prospects to come out in a long time, but he is still a QB. In fantasy, there just isn't the same separation between QB1 and QB 12 as there is between RB1 and RB 24. In normal scoring settings I saw Bradford/Stafford end up around the 8-12 range in the first round typically. Luck is more highly touted, so it wouldn't surprise me to see him around the top 5. But there is very little chance he gets taken ahead of any 1st round RB's or WR's.

And tell me who you would rather have at this point from LAST draft? Cam Newton or Mark Ingram? I went with Ingram at 1.1, and am regretting it...

Cam is a different breed of QB than Luck is, but yea Newton would be worthy of a 1.1 pick to some. I personally would still take one of Ingram, Green or Julio. We are only roughly a 3rd of the way into their rookie seasons, too early to judge long term yet. Vince Young looked pretty good too at first.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Oh yeah, he's a long-term solution in dynasty leagues with probably quite a few top 5 years in there. I think each league (especially dynasty leagues) needs to have rules in place to prevent tanking anyway, so maybe this is your cue to create those parameters.

that's unlikely to happen. not saying he doesn't look NFL ready. it's just not too many QBs do that and it takes a combination of skill, pro development, and the right team. he's got the college skill. who knows about pro development and the situation yet.

He will probably score perfect or near perfect on the Wonderlic, he comes from NFL stock, he's excelled in a pro style offense for three years in a major conference, he can make all the throws and he's a tremendous athlete who will run for a lot of yards and TDs. Whether he's top three or top five or top seven will depend on where he lands and the talent around him, but a five to seven year run in the top five is not far-fetched at all. This guy will live up to the hype.