SUPER BOWL ODDS (1 Viewer)

[trader jake]

TobiasFunke just moved the line against Mustang Man about 5.5 points.

 

[TobiasFunke]

TobiasFunke just moved the line against Mustang Man about 5.5 points.

Honestly, I'm sure he's a really nice guy, and I don't mean to call him out. I just wonder why people act like they have some vast superior knowledge or insight about a subject when (1) they clearly don't; and (2) it's a subject about which nobody has any particular special knowledge or insight.(Also, I'm hoping to make some really easy money on that "how much will the line move?" bet)

 

[coyote5]

...When this line closes it will be Pitt as the favorite by 3+ points, the people that believe GB will win should wait so they can at least get some points on their side. The sucker bets GB - points in this game.

Let's just pin this for posterity so we can come back and laugh next Sunday.

 

[TobiasFunke]

...When this line closes it will be Pitt as the favorite by 3+ points, the people that believe GB will win should wait so they can at least get some points on their side. The sucker bets GB - points in this game.

Let's just pin this for posterity so we can come back and laugh next Sunday.

Shhh- you're not helping me take Mustang Man's money.

I saw in the other thread that the Bodog line moved to Packers -3 today. My guess is that this is just a further Vegas ploy to get bets and money on the Pack before those crafty oddsmakers swing the line back to Steelers -3, because all the sharps like Mustang Man know that Pittsburgh is obviously going to win by double digits.

 

[s&m]

A Mike Klis peice in the Denver post today quoted Jay Kornegay the heads oddmaker at Las Vegas Hilton. He said that the consenus among oddsmakers, without public imput, would have listed the Steelers as one-point favorites. But as the public perceives Packers to be the superior team and opened the line at Packers minus 2 points.

Either way it is a close betting line from the oddsmakers on who they think will win, and who they think the public wants to win. Maybe Vegas is trying to put this info out so as to get a little more balance to the books by saying they think that Steelers should be favored and see if money will flow that direction.

Seems that way to me, especially with the line moving further. They need to entice more Steeler dollars. I'm just hoping for a good game this year.

 

[Go deep]

...When this line closes it will be Pitt as the favorite by 3+ points, the people that believe GB will win should wait so they can at least get some points on their side. The sucker bets GB - points in this game.

Let's just pin this for posterity so we can come back and laugh next Sunday.

Shhh- you're not helping me take Mustang Man's money.

I saw in the other thread that the Bodog line moved to Packers -3 today. My guess is that this is just a further Vegas ploy to get bets and money on the Pack before those crafty oddsmakers swing the line back to Steelers -3, because all the sharps like Mustang Man know that Pittsburgh is obviously going to win by double digits.

Look closer. Although your bet is still safe that the Steelers will not end up as 3 point favorites at any point.

 

[TobiasFunke]

...When this line closes it will be Pitt as the favorite by 3+ points, the people that believe GB will win should wait so they can at least get some points on their side. The sucker bets GB - points in this game.

Let's just pin this for posterity so we can come back and laugh next Sunday.

Shhh- you're not helping me take Mustang Man's money.

I saw in the other thread that the Bodog line moved to Packers -3 today. My guess is that this is just a further Vegas ploy to get bets and money on the Pack before those crafty oddsmakers swing the line back to Steelers -3, because all the sharps like Mustang Man know that Pittsburgh is obviously going to win by double digits.

Look closer. Although your bet is still safe that the Steelers will not end up as 3 point favorites at any point.

I see now. -3 at a heavy price. Thanks.Ixnay on the Eelersstay as Avoritesfay. I'm still waiting to hear from gambling guru Mustang Man.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

A Mike Klis peice in the Denver post today quoted Jay Kornegay the heads oddmaker at Las Vegas Hilton. He said that the consenus among oddsmakers, without public imput, would have listed the Steelers as one-point favorites. But as the public perceives Packers to be the superior team and opened the line at Packers minus 2 points.

Either way it is a close betting line from the oddsmakers on who they think will win, and who they think the public wants to win. Maybe Vegas is trying to put this info out so as to get a little more balance to the books by saying they think that Steelers should be favored and see if money will flow that direction.

Seems that way to me, especially with the line moving further. They need to entice more Steeler dollars. I'm just hoping for a good game this year.

Bold is what I expected to see.

 

[cr8f]

More players may not play. The Steelers are starting to sound like Belichik-everyone's injured.

 

[belljr]

I already know the Steelers will win.

WHY? Because in July I was in Vegas and made a few bets on baseball. I tell the wife I want to make a few bets on the Steelers before we leave. One thing or another and I forgot to do it before we left....

 

[schmitty]

I already know the Steelers will win.WHY? Because in July I was in Vegas and made a few bets on baseball. I tell the wife I want to make a few bets on the Steelers before we leave. One thing or another and I forgot to do it before we left....

This might be the best reason to take a side so far.Where did Mustang Man go? I want in on this line move action...

 

[Jake22]

I already know the Steelers will win.WHY? Because in July I was in Vegas and made a few bets on baseball. I tell the wife I want to make a few bets on the Steelers before we leave. One thing or another and I forgot to do it before we left....

All that means is you saved yourself money by not making that bet...your assuming it's already a winner, which means it's probably a losing bet...if your so confident in Pitt, then you still can bet them +2.5 and make half of that money back minus the odds you were going to get...

 

[nlgb1]

This will be a fantastic game. Whoever wins it will be by a field goal or less. Vegas has the spread dead on right now.

Sorry, but I don't think so. A few questions as to why:1) Who has a better defense, the Bears or Steelers?2) Who is a better QB, Big Ben or 1/2 of Cutler + 1/2 of 3rd string Caleb Hanie + a few series of Todd Collins thrown in?The answer to the two above should be fairly obvious - and yet the Bears defense held Aaron Rodger to 55 QB rating. And despite not getting any points or even any boost from special teams, the Bears were arguably one stupid reverse call and a series away from tying the game. Cutler played poorly in the first half - and there were open receivers and he had time. He just made some very innacurate throws. The Packers, based on the poor QB play from the Bears - and feeble play by the #1 special teams unit in the league, should have won this won going away.I think Pittsburgh rolls the Packers 34-17.

stop trying to make this into a bears conversation. this game has nothing to do with the bears. the bears lost. they will be watching this game. they are an afterthought. get over it. there is a draft in a few months, at least theres still something for you to look forward to.

 

[The Moz]

only 2 1/2 hell I might fly to Vegas now so I can put down 5 grand on the pack.

Green Bay has almost as good a defense as Pittsburgh and have a much better offense.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

I don't know how the Steelers aren't favored in this game, but it's very tempting to take them and get three points. The Super Bowl is unlike any game, and Pittsburgh was there two years ago. I think the only SB winner in Green Bay is Kuhn...who was on Pittsburgh's practice squad at the time.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

I don't know how the Steelers aren't favored in this game, but it's very tempting to take them and get three points. The Super Bowl is unlike any game, and Pittsburgh was there two years ago. I think the only SB winner in Green Bay is Kuhn...who was on Pittsburgh's practice squad at the time.

So you're basing the outcome on who's been there before. Okay.

 

[belljr]

I already know the Steelers will win.WHY? Because in July I was in Vegas and made a few bets on baseball. I tell the wife I want to make a few bets on the Steelers before we leave. One thing or another and I forgot to do it before we left....

All that means is you saved yourself money by not making that bet...your assuming it's already a winner, which means it's probably a losing bet...if your so confident in Pitt, then you still can bet them +2.5 and make half of that money back minus the odds you were going to get...

I had 2 prop bets I was going to make IN JULYSteelers win the AFC NorthSteelers win the Super Bowlalready lost money and not sure where I can now bet, I don't do online books anymore after getting hosed for a lot of $$$

 

[Ballstein]

To quote Bill Parcels "You are what your record says you are"...a 6-seed who lost to the Lions. The NFC is a weaker conference, no one is impressed with beating the Falcons or the Bears with a 3rd string QB leading a comeback.

Taking the pack is the public noob bet

 

[Doctor Detroit]

To quote Bill Parcels "You are what your record says you are"...a 6-seed who lost to the Lions. The NFC is a weaker conference, no one is impressed with beating the Falcons or the Bears with a 3rd string QB leading a comeback.Taking the pack is the public noob bet

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

I don't know how the Steelers aren't favored in this game, but it's very tempting to take them and get three points. The Super Bowl is unlike any game, and Pittsburgh was there two years ago. I think the only SB winner in Green Bay is Kuhn...who was on Pittsburgh's practice squad at the time.

So you're basing the outcome on who's been there before. Okay.

I'm saying that, in a game where two evenly-matched teams are facing each other, I'm giving an advantage to the team with experience playing on that stage over the one with just about no experience, and zero experience being an active part of a Super Bowl win. The Steelers already know how to handle Super Bowl week. The Packers don't. Roethlisberger has felt that pressure before, including having to rally his team in the closing minutes in the very biggest game of the year. Rodgers has no such experience. I'm not saying the Packers are terrible or can't win. I'm saying that I'm surprised the Steelers aren't the slight favorite, with valuable experience being what tips the scales in their favor slightly. To get points and the experienced team seems like a pretty good deal, but I'm not a gambler. I'm sure the oddsmakers know what they're doing.

 

[sho nuff]

To quote Bill Parcels "You are what your record says you are"...a 6-seed who lost to the Lions. The NFC is a weaker conference, no one is impressed with beating the Falcons or the Bears with a 3rd string QB leading a comeback.Taking the pack is the public noob bet

Hilarious.Yes...the NFC is weak...which is again why the top NFC teams have beaten the top AFC teams this year (except for NE). Record doesn't mean squat at this point in the playoffs.

 

[az_prof]

I don't bet, but if I did, I would bet the bank on Steelers. I think they are tougher and more physical. I see Harrison creaming Rodgers and knocking him out of the game. I see the Steelers running the ball better than the Packers. And when the game is on the line, Roethlisberger makes the play or Polamalu comes up with an INT.

 

[Manster]

while thinking about the steelers winnin a SB on Dallas' field makes me vomit in my mouth a bit, i gotta give the edge to them.

i just have gut feeling the Steelers D and roethlispuker will make more plays. steelers 31-24

 

[TobiasFunke]

To quote Bill Parcels "You are what your record says you are"...a 6-seed who lost to the Lions. The NFC is a weaker conference, no one is impressed with beating the Falcons or the Bears with a 3rd string QB leading a comeback.Taking the pack is the public noob bet

Hilarious.Yes...the NFC is weak...which is again why the top NFC teams have beaten the top AFC teams this year (except for NE). Record doesn't mean squat at this point in the playoffs.

Not to mention the fact that the loss to the Lions was in Detroit and the Pack were without Rodgers most of the game. The Lions aren't a running joke any more. DVOA has them as the #18 team in the NFL.And of course there's the fact that the public is taking the Steelers last I checked, which is a really weird thing if "taking the pack is the public noob bet."The Packers and Steelers have virtually the same numbers when you look at total points margin and, for those who are more stat inclined, at DVOA. The Steelers also lost Maurkice Pouncey (I assume his injury status was part of the reason the line came out as it did). Anybody acting like the Steelers are an obvious play has no idea what they're talking about. They may well win, but this is basically a 50/50 game, possibly with a slight edge to the Pack due to the Steelers' injury problems up front.Where's my guy Mustang Man? I'm curious to get his input on when the line will move. I want to make both my wagers at the best possible time so I can get a chance at a double win based on the 5.5 point line move.

 

[sho nuff]

To quote Bill Parcels "You are what your record says you are"...a 6-seed who lost to the Lions. The NFC is a weaker conference, no one is impressed with beating the Falcons or the Bears with a 3rd string QB leading a comeback.Taking the pack is the public noob bet

Hilarious.Yes...the NFC is weak...which is again why the top NFC teams have beaten the top AFC teams this year (except for NE). Record doesn't mean squat at this point in the playoffs.

Not to mention the fact that the loss to the Lions was in Detroit and the Pack were without Rodgers most of the game. The Lions aren't a running joke any more. DVOA has them as the #18 team in the NFL.And of course there's the fact that the public is taking the Steelers last I checked, which is a really weird thing if "taking the pack is the public noob bet."The Packers and Steelers have virtually the same numbers when you look at total points margin and, for those who are more stat inclined, at DVOA. The Steelers also lost Maurkice Pouncey (I assume his injury status was part of the reason the line came out as it did). Anybody acting like the Steelers are an obvious play has no idea what they're talking about. They may well win, but this is basically a 50/50 game, possibly with a slight edge to the Pack due to the Steelers' injury problems up front.Where's my guy Mustang Man? I'm curious to get his input on when the line will move. I want to make both my wagers at the best possible time so I can get a chance at a double win based on the 5.5 point line move.

Agreed...a game I wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole and feel great about it.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Im gonna dip Pitt to +8.5 and pull the O/U down

 

[TobiasFunke]

That is fine bet on Green Bay at your own demise. Vegas is just playing everyone by leading them to believe GB is the better team. They see the polls and that GB is believed to be the hotter team. They realize people will be betting GB early no matter the spread. So why not get these fools right now and the house is also getting points. Man some people are so dense. When this line closes it will be Pitt as the favorite by 3+ points, the people that believe GB will win should wait so they can at least get some points on their side. The sucker bets GB - points in this game.