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Superbowl prediction thread (1 Viewer)

LHUCKS said:
Saints by three...Freeney out is a huge blow.
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I hear Brock is pretty good. Freeney had 0 sacks and 0 tackles against the Bears in SB 41. Lastly, Freeney will play. Not sure if that's a good thing or not. I'd rather he didn't play if he's not effective. Brock is a good player in his own right.
 
After 1 Quarter: Colts 7, Saints 7

After 2 Quarters: Colts 17, Saints 17

After 3 Quarters: Colts 27, Saints 27

Final Score: Colts 37, Saints 27

Betcha never guess what I got in the box pool :lmao:

-QG

 
* New Orleans Saints +5

I'm sure some of you aren't too surprised to see me on the Saints in this one as I've been a believer in them all season. However, I can assure you that any bias I may have towards them has been removed and I've done what I feel to be a thorough analysis on this one. I'm jumping on this line now because with it looking less and less likely that Freeney will play (or be anywhere near his normal self if he does), this line has started to drop. Regardless of how healthy he is though, the Saints would be a play for me in this spot.

When I look at stats to try and analyze a game, I do my best to remove games where one team or the other was at a disadvantage due to injuries or resting players. Obviously, the Saints' defense spent most of their games after playing the Patriots banged up on defense (and offense a bit with Shockey/Bush missing time), and the Colts had to have a couple games removed due to resting players and one game against a banged up team. So, I'm sure a lot of you are combing stats too looking for an edge, know that this is why my numbers might be different than some that you are seeing.

Let's start by looking at each team's passing matchups. These are two of the elite passing units in the NFL, with the Saints passing for 8.23 yards/attempt, and the Colts throwing for 7.57 yards/attempt (1st and 3rd in the NFL). Both teams played very similar quality of passing defenses, and each team's pass defense is among the elite in the NFL, the Saints allowing 5.71 yds/attempt and the Colts allowing 5.79 yds/attempt (6th and 8th in the NFL). Assuming Freeney can't go, this is obviously a knock to the Colts' defense, and should give the Saints an advantage of being able to send an extra receiver out if they don't have to double him. Also with Freeney out, it seems to me like the Saints will be able to generate more pressure on Manning then the Colts will be able to generate on Brees. Of course, as we've seen in previous weeks pressure can lead to bad decisions and turnovers. Although both of the QBs are among the best at taking care of the ball, the edge goes to the Saints here as well. Manning has averaged just over 1 interception per game, while Brees has averaged .7 interceptions per game. When you look at the defenses and their ability to generate turnovers as well, the Colts average 1.2 interceptions/game while the Saints average 1.92. Although past performance doesn't necessarily indicate future results, it can indicate which results are more probable to occur.

The rushing games of each team don't have any huge edge for one side or the other, but I have to think that the Saints have a slight advantage in this category too. The Saints have run for 4.66 yards/rush attempt this season, while the Colts have struggled mightily running for just 3.65 yards/rush attempt (6th and 30th in the NFL). The Colts' rushing attack offers the most intriguing matchup here, as the Saints have struggled against the run all year. The Saints' defense has allowed 4.64 yards/rush attempt, 29th worst in the NFL. Given the mediocrity of the two units facing each other here, I'm thinking that there really isn't much of an edge for either side. The Colts' run defense has been above average this year, allowing 4.06 yards/rush attempt, 11th best in the NFL. I think that we've got a better chance of the Saints being able to assert themselves on the ground than the Colts, which should give them the advantage of having to be less one dimensional.

Although there is some concern about the lack of Superbowl experience on the Saints' squad, this is a team with strong veteran leadership that I believe can overcome it. Besides, in a game where Manning will likely have to rely on young receivers such as Garcon and Collie, I don't see how you couldn't argue that they'll be impacted as well. I think this will be a great Superbowl, as neither team could be considered dead if they fall a couple scores back. I expect an exciting finish, and in my mind the worst case scenario for the Saints is a 4 point loss. Given that in my worst case scenario they still cover, I'm confident that this is the right play as is my system. Good luck to everyone with this final wager of the season, I look forward to starting all over again next year!

 
Freeney plays and plays near full strength, Colts win going away.

If Freeney is limited, then this actually makes the Colts better against the run (not Freeney's strong suit). It will force more pressure on the Defense with Brees having more time, although I'd then expect we see more blitzes to get pressure.

Kroy, did your analysis factor in that the Colts have basically had to play the full year without Bob Sanders? He was a DPOY so his absence has been missed.

 
Just an observation. Indy's D didn't face many really good passing QB's this year. In 14 out of their 18 games they faced David Garrard twice, Chad Pennington, Seneca Wallace, Kerry Collins, Vince Young, Mark Bulger, Alex Smith, Flacco twice, Sanchez twice, Kyle Orton and Ryan Fitzpatrick....not a scary bunch, and even a few of those did pretty good.

They faced just 4 above average passing teams with excellent QB's. Warner was 30 of 52 for 332 yds , Schaub was a combined 63 of 85 for 595 yds in 2 games and had a chance to win both, Brady was 29 of 42 for 375 yds. Indy won all 4 games but had to make comebacks in 3 of them....and 2 were after deficits of 17 pts. Maybe you just throw it all out the window at this point, but this should be their biggest test since the New England game, which was a game they pulled out by 1 pt.

 
Dragon1952 said:
Just an observation. Indy's D didn't face many really good passing QB's this year. In 14 out of their 18 games they faced David Garrard twice, Chad Pennington, Seneca Wallace, Kerry Collins, Vince Young, Mark Bulger, Alex Smith, Flacco twice, Sanchez twice, Kyle Orton and Ryan Fitzpatrick....not a scary bunch, and even a few of those did pretty good.They faced just 4 above average passing teams with excellent QB's. Warner was 30 of 52 for 332 yds , Schaub was a combined 63 of 85 for 595 yds in 2 games and had a chance to win both, Brady was 29 of 42 for 375 yds. Indy won all 4 games but had to make comebacks in 3 of them....and 2 were after deficits of 17 pts. Maybe you just throw it all out the window at this point, but this should be their biggest test since the New England game, which was a game they pulled out by 1 pt.
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No one is saying the Saints won't put up the points. You mentioned Warner and his 30 of 52 for 332 yds, the Colts pretty much dominated the Cardinals and harrassed Warner all day. It will take more from the Saints to win this game than a 300+ yd game and a few TDs from Brees.
 
Dragon1952 said:
Just an observation. Indy's D didn't face many really good passing QB's this year. In 14 out of their 18 games they faced David Garrard twice, Chad Pennington, Seneca Wallace, Kerry Collins, Vince Young, Mark Bulger, Alex Smith, Flacco twice, Sanchez twice, Kyle Orton and Ryan Fitzpatrick....not a scary bunch, and even a few of those did pretty good.They faced just 4 above average passing teams with excellent QB's. Warner was 30 of 52 for 332 yds , Schaub was a combined 63 of 85 for 595 yds in 2 games and had a chance to win both, Brady was 29 of 42 for 375 yds. Indy won all 4 games but had to make comebacks in 3 of them....and 2 were after deficits of 17 pts. Maybe you just throw it all out the window at this point, but this should be their biggest test since the New England game, which was a game they pulled out by 1 pt.
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:no: I like the Saints. I think people are underrating NO offense as well as defense.34-31 Saints
 
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JohnnyU said:
Dragon1952 said:
Just an observation. Indy's D didn't face many really good passing QB's this year. In 14 out of their 18 games they faced David Garrard twice, Chad Pennington, Seneca Wallace, Kerry Collins, Vince Young, Mark Bulger, Alex Smith, Flacco twice, Sanchez twice, Kyle Orton and Ryan Fitzpatrick....not a scary bunch, and even a few of those did pretty good.They faced just 4 above average passing teams with excellent QB's. Warner was 30 of 52 for 332 yds , Schaub was a combined 63 of 85 for 595 yds in 2 games and had a chance to win both, Brady was 29 of 42 for 375 yds. Indy won all 4 games but had to make comebacks in 3 of them....and 2 were after deficits of 17 pts. Maybe you just throw it all out the window at this point, but this should be their biggest test since the New England game, which was a game they pulled out by 1 pt.
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No one is saying the Saints won't put up the points. You mentioned Warner and his 30 of 52 for 332 yds, the Colts pretty much dominated the Cardinals and harrassed Warner all day. It will take more from the Saints to win this game than a 300+ yd game and a few TDs from Brees.
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The point was that in all but one of those 4 games the Colts were getting their butts kicked. Yes, Arizona wasn't one of them.
 
FUBAR said:
Keys IMO

1. Which team will have a respectable run game - Colts were tied for 2nd worst y/a in the league with Houston, Saints did much better :excited:

2. Turnovers - neither QB throws many INTs but the Saints have been better in getting INTs :thumbup:

3. Sacks / pressure - neither OL or QB give up many, the team that's able to force the QB to throw before he's set will benefit, Freeney will be the key here :excited:

4. Special teams - neither team does really well kicking or punting although I'd give Stover the leg up here, New Orleans seems to have an advantage in the return game :excited:

New Orleans has the advantage on 1, 2, and 4. Colts have 3, experience and Peyton.

I want to say the Colts win this, but I'm going to say:

New Orleans 33

Indianapolis 21
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So I was flat out wrong on the kicking game, the run game didn't matter - but I was close on the score.
 
mattsam said:
Saints run the ball effectively enough to get the job done. Two late int on Manning while down makes the score more lopsided than it looksSaints 31 Colts 17
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:goodposting: and he barely missed being right on the second interception.
 
Take away the first 10 minutes of the game and it was all 'Aints.

31-7 Manning and company were outscored and that is with a 4th and goal near the end of the half.

 
rzrback77 said:
I think that the Colts defense is much better than most are giving credit. I believe that there is also a likelihood that the Saints start slowly on offense because of the team's history of not being in the big game. I know that was other players, but the two week time period between the Conference Championship and the Super Bowl is a loooooooooooooong time for the players to wait and the pressure just keeps building.I think that the Saints will NOT put a mad dog blitz every down defense and will play more drop back and cover allowing the Colts to slowly move down the field and then similar to the Jets, lock down tighter in the red zo0ne forcing field goal attempts.I see a lower scoring game than most in this thread. I will go Saints 24, Colts 19. Drew Brees wins the MVP based on the fact that the Saint scores are spread around and otherwise they have no stand-out player.Would love to be in New Orleans on Sunday night after the game just to partake in the celebration down in the Quarter.
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Also pretty close, except for the Manning pick six. Last line dead on target though.
 
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Reaper said:
Dragon1952 said:
Just an observation. Indy's D didn't face many really good passing QB's this year. In 14 out of their 18 games they faced David Garrard twice, Chad Pennington, Seneca Wallace, Kerry Collins, Vince Young, Mark Bulger, Alex Smith, Flacco twice, Sanchez twice, Kyle Orton and Ryan Fitzpatrick....not a scary bunch, and even a few of those did pretty good.They faced just 4 above average passing teams with excellent QB's. Warner was 30 of 52 for 332 yds , Schaub was a combined 63 of 85 for 595 yds in 2 games and had a chance to win both, Brady was 29 of 42 for 375 yds. Indy won all 4 games but had to make comebacks in 3 of them....and 2 were after deficits of 17 pts. Maybe you just throw it all out the window at this point, but this should be their biggest test since the New England game, which was a game they pulled out by 1 pt.
Click to expand...
:popcorn: I like the Saints. I think people are underrating NO offense as well as defense.34-31 Saints
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Well, I picked the winner and won some $$$$$$$....Sweet.. WAY too many Colts fans acted as if they were invincible IMO, nice to see that get beaten down.
 
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