What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Suspension Discounts - Brady and Bell (1 Viewer)

Warrior

Footballguy
When viewing the rankings of this site along with many others, I'm coming across the same situation over and over. In my opinion, people are treating Tom Brady's suspension and LeVeon Bell's suspension completely differently.

In standard scoring, re-draft leagues, I'm constantly seeing Bell barely devalued at all for missing the first three games of 2015, while Brady's ranking is hammered by his four (likely to be reduced it seems). The commentary often goes something like this:

-Bell: "It's only 3 games. Even with the suspension, I'm not lowering him in my rankings"

-Brady: "He's missing up to 4 games, which is one quarter of a season. Because of that, I've lowered him 3-5 spots in my rankings"

I understand that Bell has a bit of a wide margin above RB#2 in many rankings, and that's why we don't see him dropping below RB2 for many. But judging by the commentary, it seems like the suspension is merely an afterthought for Bell but a serious issue for Brady in the minds of rankers.

This is all despite the fact that Brady's suspension can be (and likely will be) reduced. It's also ignoring the fact that replacing QB for 4 weeks will seemingly be a lot easier than replacing your RB1 for 3 weeks. Garoppolo or Carson Palmer seem like fine fill-ins for $1 while you'd be hard pressed to find as good of a replacement for Bell for 4 weeks without spending a pretty penny.

This isn't even taking into account that Brady's suspension doesn't really put him at any higher risk for further suspension. You could make the case that Bell's may.

Assume standard scoring, 1QB, a flex spot or two, etc. Am I the only one that thinks either Bell should be knocked down a peg or two, or Brady shouldn't be dropped so far by rankers?

 
For example, one FBG provides the following comments:

Brady (Ranked QB12) - "If he manages to have his suspension reduced, he'll make a significant leap in the rankings"

Bell (ranked RB1) - "I'll gladly manage around 3 missed games..."

 
Bell seems like he's way higher in his positional tier, that's why.

If there were 0 games being missed between the two, you might take 1 or 2 RBs over Bell. Whereas you'll prob still take 7-9 QBs before Brady... and the next 4-5 behind him could easily outscore him.

 
Without a suspension Bell is far and away the #1 overall rb and player this season, assuming your rb projections somewhat follow last year's stats. He produced far more VBD than anyone else. Reduce that by 20% (a 3 game suspension) and he's still a top 3 rb.

Compared with Brady, there's not much difference between the #4 qb and the #10 qb according to VBD. Reduce his VBD by 20% and his ranking drops significantly because the qbs are so tightly grouped.

It's not that complicated, and VBD/math supports the rankings

 
Brady loses about 100 completions, 1kish yards, 5 Td's, 1(?)INT= 120+ points

Bell loses about 70 carries, 380ish total yards, 20 recepts, 2-3 td's= 80 points.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Brady loses about 100 completions, 1kish yards, 5 Td's, 1(?)INT= 120+ points

Bell loses about 70 carries, 380ish total yards, 20 recepts, 2-3 td's= 80 points.
Not really sure how you came to those values... But in 4pts/TD w/ PPR scoring, wouldn't this equate to Brady losing ~60pts [(1000/25) + (5*4) - (1*2)] vs Bell losing ~80pts [(380/10) + 20 + (3*6)]?

That being said... QBs are WAY easier to replace and stream than a top tier RB.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Brady loses about 100 completions, 1kish yards, 5 Td's, 1(?)INT= 120+ points

Bell loses about 70 carries, 380ish total yards, 20 recepts, 2-3 td's= 80 points.
Not really sure how you came to those values... But in 4pts/TD w/ PPR scoring, wouldn't this equate to Brady losing ~60pts [(1000/25) + (5*4) - (1*2)] vs Bell losing ~80pts [(380/10) + 20 + (3*6)]?

That being said... QBs are WAY easier to replace and stream than a top tier RB.
I was using my own league (I know- bad me) which includes bonuses (250 passing yards and completions) and 6pt passing td's

 
Last edited by a moderator:
maf005 said:
Without a suspension Bell is far and away the #1 overall rb and player this season, assuming your rb projections somewhat follow last year's stats. He produced far more VBD than anyone else. Reduce that by 20% (a 3 game suspension) and he's still a top 3 rb.

Compared with Brady, there's not much difference between the #4 qb and the #10 qb according to VBD. Reduce his VBD by 20% and his ranking drops significantly because the qbs are so tightly grouped.

It's not that complicated, and VBD/math supports the rankings
This is my answer as well, although I was going to post, "There is a handfull of 3 down RB's out there, and a #### load of potential 4k QB's". Your answer may be more eloquent.

 
Brady falls into a bucket of about a dozen quarterbacks all ranked similarly without much to differentiate them. Taking 4 games off of his season before we even get started drops him to the bottom of that bucket.

There is no one else in Bell's tier.

This is also why a densely packed injury history dropped Rob Gronkowski a lot less in the rankings than it dropped Jordan Reed or Jonathan Stewart.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
People can see what they want to see, I suppose. I see Brady as the #2 fantasy QB last year from Week 5 on (fact) after his OL gelled, Gronk got healthy, and Brady got used to his receiving corps. I also see Brady as finally having a stable group of receivers, which will only help his performance (or did people forget him struggling after losing his Top 5 receivers the season before?). I also see Brady playing in 16 regular season games as his court case gets extended beyond the season (opinion). And I also see he and the Patriots having a chip on their shoulders and lighting it up on offense like they did in 2007 after the cheating stuff (opinion). I also see the Pats defense having some issues, which will force the offense to score more points. (Knock on wood) and a healthy Gronk for once. Add it all up, and I see Brady having a 4500/40 season (Top 3 QB) available in the 9th or 10th round (based on ADP).

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I'm still confused that Bell got 3 games and Blount got one. Weren't they smoking together? And most likely Blount was the influence over Bell, not the other way around.

As for the whole Brady thing, I'm so sick of Goodell's office and their random punishments that always get reduced or overturned when he's not the appeal judge as well (which he is in this case because he knows it would otherwise get overturned), I hope Brady wins in court and the court orders Goodell to deflate Brady footballs for him every week in 2016 (nice fantasy anyway...). I'm not a particular fan of Brady but I think the NFL punishment system needs a serious overhaul after the nonsense of the last 4-5 years under Roger.

 
Right or wrong, I think there's a suggestion out there that Brady might see a dip in per game production if close attention forces him to play with properly inflated footballs all the time.

 
Brady falls into a bucket of about a dozen quarterbacks all ranked similarly without much to differentiate them. Taking 4 games off of his season before we even get started drops him to the bottom of that bucket.

There is no one else in Bell's tier.

This is also why a densely packed injury history dropped Rob Gronkowski a lot less in the rankings than it dropped Jordan Reed or Jonathan Stewart.
This is really the best explanation there is. Most people already wait on their QB because it's a pretty easy position to pick. The RB position is the hardest to pick and it's hard to pass up on the production Bell will give you at the RB position when he's available. Brady really isn't going to give you any more production than any other QB in the rounds he's been going in.

 
I wouldn't hesitate to take LeVeon. You should be able to get by at one RB slot for three weeks. Then you have The clear Number one PPR RB for the rest of the season and playoffs.

 
Brady loses about 100 completions, 1kish yards, 5 Td's, 1(?)INT= 120+ points

Bell loses about 70 carries, 380ish total yards, 20 recepts, 2-3 td's= 80 points.
You're not drafting guys based on season stats... You will have a replacement in your line-up who will "recoup" some of those numbers for your team, which is what matters.

Bell is a versatile, young back that is a potential difference maker for the most critical part of the season. He is clearly more valuable at his position than Brady is at his...

And, for others, Ladarius Green isn't Antonio Gates.

 
]You're not drafting guys based on season stats... You will have a replacement in your line-up who will "recoup" some of those numbers for your team, which is what matters.]

Exactly. Ended up, I was able to draft Brady as QB 8 and then Romo to [at least] fill in for first 5 games. If I get 3 wins in those first 5 games, I am looking REAL good, having been able to get Anderson in the first, Hill in the 2nd, and AJ Green in the third.

 
I grabbed Brady in the 8th round of a 12 team PPR on Friday, and then backed him up with Bradford in the 11th.

Grabbed L. Bell for $51 in a 10 team auction, PPR on Saturday. $200 cap.

 
People can see what they want to see, I suppose. I see Brady as the #2 fantasy QB last year from Week 5 on (fact) after his OL gelled, Gronk got healthy, and Brady got used to his receiving corps. I also see Brady as finally having a stable group of receivers, which will only help his performance (or did people forget him struggling after losing his Top 5 receivers the season before?). I also see Brady playing in 16 regular season games as his court case gets extended beyond the season (opinion). And I also see he and the Patriots having a chip on their shoulders and lighting it up on offense like they did in 2007 after the cheating stuff (opinion). I also see the Pats defense having some issues, which will force the offense to score more points. (Knock on wood) and a healthy Gronk for once. Add it all up, and I see Brady having a 4500/40 season (Top 3 QB) available in the 9th or 10th round (based on ADP).
I drafted Brady in my 6pt passing td league--and I was actually feeling really bad about it. I got him in the 8th round--but in my leagues scoring system--I drafted him as the 13th qb off of the board. I got eli several rounds later to fill in the first few weeks in case the suspension holds up. I honestly wasn't feeling good about my qb situation at all until I read your post. I didn't realize he was the 2nd best qb in fantasy after week 5 last season. In any case--thank you for giving me some fantasy hope--as I'm usually fairly grumpy and unlucky when it comes to fantasy sports.

 
I got Brady for 12 bucks in my auction league. That was a little less than expected since qb prices are nutty in that league. Brady went just before i picked in the 8th round of my draft on Saturday. Seems about right given the the 4 game suspension.

Bell went 1.4 in my draft and was kept for $40ish in the auction.

 
I don't get the Brady fall. At worst he misses the first 4, yeah. But most fantasy leagues its not all that hard for a shark to get in the playoffs, even trotting out Philly Rivers or Eli for the first few weeks. Its all about being strong for the title run isnt it? The guys you can get to fill in for Brady aren't much worse than the guys you'd get as your QB1 anyway assuming you miss on Luck and Rodgers.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top