Take an Extra DEF? (1 Viewer)

[secretid]

After reading about defenses and reflecting on my own experiences with them, I'm beginning to think that it's a reasonable strategy to take 1 more DEF than you typically would.

Here's why:

- Defenses are very difficult to predict

- Great defenses are EXTREMELY valuable

These are pretty much consensus facts. So if you start 1 DEF why not take 3? And if you start 2 why not take 4? You're greatly increasing your chance of finding those superstar DEFs that will give you huge value. The only drawback I could see is if you still can't predict the great DEFs in-season. If someone had info on the correlation of 1st half and 2nd half performance for DEFs that would be crucial.

 

[MLBrandow]

Terrible Idea. You can get the Eagles DEF for free, why take the Panthers in the 10th, the Colts in the 12th, and the Ravens in the 13th?

 

[secretid]

Valid point that these surprise DEFs may be available on the wire.

I'm coming from the perspective of a 10 team, start 2 DEF league where there are only 5 or 6 DEFs on the wire and they are woeful. In this scenario I'm almost definitely going to grab 3 DEFs and won't rule out 4 if I feel like I'm getting value (and pending how many bench slots we're given total).

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

I think if you're talking about a bench player or position, it comes down to the opportunity cost of that slot. If you think the defense is more valuable than some running back who needs injuries and luck to ever see the starting lineup (and might still disappoint) then go for it.

Points are points, and if a particular defense can get you three or four more than your normal option...that might mean an extra win or two over the course of a season. And THAT might mean the playoffs vs. sitting out. No shame in your strategy.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Terrible Idea. You can get the Eagles DEF for free, why take the Panthers in the 10th, the Colts in the 12th, and the Ravens in the 13th?

I agree with MLBrandow here, for the most part.If you have 20 rounds or fewer, drafting more than 2 Defenses is a mistake IMHO.

There are better chances of having a 6th/7th RB or WR performing well and being worthy of a start than there is for a 3rd defense.

Put another way - for astute FBGs, finding diamonds on the depth chart isn't too hard when you know the Top 230 list fairly well - you will see values there. Moreover, those values will get selected and stashed on a roster, leaving WR3s, WR4s, and RB3s on the waiver wire. I guarantee that in a 12-team league, there will be a few defenses on the waiver wire that might help your team far more than those scraps left at RB or WR.

As for seeing value - I often find myself wanting to take more WRs or RBs than I can possibly draft due to roster constraints. I'm surely not giving up another roster spot for a 3rd D.

Use the picks you have wisely and you won't want for a 3rd defense - and if you have an injury or sudden room on your team, then that 3rd D you were going to draft just as a flyer on a possible value is likely to still be available.

Note - for a league with 22+ rounds (12 teams), picking a 3rd D may start to be a good thought. After a certain point (say outside the Top 230-250 players), there starts to be little or no value at picking skill position players. Then a 3rd D makes the most sense.

 

[coolnerd]

Valid point that these surprise DEFs may be available on the wire.

I'm coming from the perspective of a 10 team, start 2 DEF league where there are only 5 or 6 DEFs on the wire and they are woeful. In this scenario I'm almost definitely going to grab 3 DEFs and won't rule out 4 if I feel like I'm getting value (and pending how many bench slots we're given total).

I would argue in your particular league there is an argument to be made. 20 defenses are going to go and even only half the owners pick the third defense, you may be stuck with guessing at the bottom 7 defense. W/O knowing your scoring system I probably would still not draft a defense, but look around at the junk left and when I have an injury (presuming redraft) or disappointing player then add my third defense especially if it going against unproductive offenses during the bye weeks I need it for.

 

[MLBrandow]

Valid point that these surprise DEFs may be available on the wire.

I'm coming from the perspective of a 10 team, start 2 DEF league where there are only 5 or 6 DEFs on the wire and they are woeful. In this scenario I'm almost definitely going to grab 3 DEFs and won't rule out 4 if I feel like I'm getting value (and pending how many bench slots we're given total).

I would argue in your particular league there is an argument to be made. 20 defenses are going to go and even only half the owners pick the third defense, you may be stuck with guessing at the bottom 7 defense. W/O knowing your scoring system I probably would still not draft a defense, but look around at the junk left and when I have an injury (presuming redraft) or disappointing player then add my third defense especially if it going against unproductive offenses during the bye weeks I need it for.

Most good owners will only take one defense. In most redraft leagues I play in that only require one defense, there are maybe 15-20 off the board in any given week.

 

[There it is]

Terrible Idea. You can get the Eagles DEF for free, why take the Panthers in the 10th, the Colts in the 12th, and the Ravens in the 13th?

I agree with MLBrandow here, for the most part.If you have 20 rounds or fewer, drafting more than 2 Defenses is a mistake IMHO.

There are better chances of having a 6th/7th RB or WR performing well and being worthy of a start than there is for a 3rd defense.

Put another way - for astute FBGs, finding diamonds on the depth chart isn't too hard when you know the Top 230 list fairly well - you will see values there. Moreover, those values will get selected and stashed on a roster, leaving WR3s, WR4s, and RB3s on the waiver wire. I guarantee that in a 12-team league, there will be a few defenses on the waiver wire that might help your team far more than those scraps left at RB or WR.

As for seeing value - I often find myself wanting to take more WRs or RBs than I can possibly draft due to roster constraints. I'm surely not giving up another roster spot for a 3rd D.

Use the picks you have wisely and you won't want for a 3rd defense - and if you have an injury or sudden room on your team, then that 3rd D you were going to draft just as a flyer on a possible value is likely to still be available.

Note - for a league with 22+ rounds (12 teams), picking a 3rd D may start to be a good thought. After a certain point (say outside the Top 230-250 players), there starts to be little or no value at picking skill position players. Then a 3rd D makes the most sense.

Damn, You been looking at my notes?I have been doing this for years. However in an 18 roster league you can't afford the spot.

I guess I agree w/the pro and con on this depending on the value of a raster spot. If you can afford it then yes, if not then no.

I draft 3 D's and cut the worst one after you gauge their value a lot too.

EDIT: to add to MLBrandow. I'm one that always drafts 2 Ds.

 

[coolnerd]

Valid point that these surprise DEFs may be available on the wire.

I'm coming from the perspective of a 10 team, start 2 DEF league where there are only 5 or 6 DEFs on the wire and they are woeful. In this scenario I'm almost definitely going to grab 3 DEFs and won't rule out 4 if I feel like I'm getting value (and pending how many bench slots we're given total).

I would argue in your particular league there is an argument to be made. 20 defenses are going to go and even only half the owners pick the third defense, you may be stuck with guessing at the bottom 7 defense. W/O knowing your scoring system I probably would still not draft a defense, but look around at the junk left and when I have an injury (presuming redraft) or disappointing player then add my third defense especially if it going against unproductive offenses during the bye weeks I need it for.

Most good owners will only take one defense. In most redraft leagues I play in that only require one defense, there are maybe 15-20 off the board in any given week.

Understood, in general, you are correct. In fact, some owners won't draft a defense at all. And even a larger number will play match-ups off the WW until they "find" a defense that is dependable week to week. The specifics of his league require him or a good player, to alter a generalization that many players operate under.

 

[MLBrandow]

Understood, in general, you are correct. In fact, some owners won't draft a defense at all. And even a larger number will play match-ups off the WW until they "find" a defense that is dependable week to week.

The specifics of his league require him or a good player, to alter a generalization that many players operate under.

Yeah, I generally am the "draft a sleeper defense and play the WW if it doesn't work out."I think if you're playing in a league where people are drafting 3 defenses, and there are only 5 free defenses available, it's time to find a new league.

 

[There it is]

Valid point that these surprise DEFs may be available on the wire.

I'm coming from the perspective of a 10 team, start 2 DEF league where there are only 5 or 6 DEFs on the wire and they are woeful. In this scenario I'm almost definitely going to grab 3 DEFs and won't rule out 4 if I feel like I'm getting value (and pending how many bench slots we're given total).

I would argue in your particular league there is an argument to be made. 20 defenses are going to go and even only half the owners pick the third defense, you may be stuck with guessing at the bottom 7 defense. W/O knowing your scoring system I probably would still not draft a defense, but look around at the junk left and when I have an injury (presuming redraft) or disappointing player then add my third defense especially if it going against unproductive offenses during the bye weeks I need it for.

Most good owners will only take one defense. In most redraft leagues I play in that only require one defense, there are maybe 15-20 off the board in any given week.

Understood, in general, you are correct. In fact, some owners won't draft a defense at all. And even a larger number will play match-ups off the WW until they "find" a defense that is dependable week to week. The specifics of his league require him or a good player, to alter a generalization that many players operate under.

I love those leagues that draft no D or 1 and play the WW. I draft 3 in those and cut the one w/the worst match-ups or I was just wrong on.

 

[coolnerd]

Understood, in general, you are correct. In fact, some owners won't draft a defense at all. And even a larger number will play match-ups off the WW until they "find" a defense that is dependable week to week. 

The specifics of his league require him or a good player, to alter a generalization that many players operate under.

Yeah, I generally am the "draft a sleeper defense and play the WW if it doesn't work out."I think if you're playing in a league where people are drafting 3 defenses, and there are only 5 free defenses available, it's time to find a new league.

Yeah, I see you working, but I have played in leagues with stuff as strange if not stranger than starting two defenses , so I assume that he enjoys the fact it is different.

 

[There it is]

Understood, in general, you are correct. In fact, some owners won't draft a defense at all. And even a larger number will play match-ups off the WW until they "find" a defense that is dependable week to week.

The specifics of his league require him or a good player, to alter a generalization that many players operate under.

Yeah, I generally am the "draft a sleeper defense and play the WW if it doesn't work out."I think if you're playing in a league where people are drafting 3 defenses, and there are only 5 free defenses available, it's time to find a new league.

In my regular 1 keeker 1 D required league w/20 rnds. I piss them off by drafting 3 Ds.I'm not the only one, we've been together since 1991, so we know each other and draft accordingly.

I have been in unluchy's OMEGA since it started and do not have this luxury.

Every league is different and you have to adjust, as well you know.

 

[Cookiemonster]

I'm at the end of a 12 team 22 round start up dynasty/deep keeper and am saving the defense(s) for last 'cause there are still WRs and young QBs I want. Hell, if I had my way there would be 3 or 4 more rounds to finish picking up all the diamonds in the rough that I can see. No way I waste another roster spot on a D even when a couple teams have taken 3. I'm still getting depth - of course this isn't redraft where multiple teams taking 3 could thin the pool enough to make it somewhat useful.

 

[There it is]

I'm at the end of a 12 team 22 round start up dynasty/deep keeper and am saving the defense(s) for last 'cause there are still WRs and young QBs I want. Hell, if I had my way there would be 3 or 4 more rounds to finish picking up all the diamonds in the rough that I can see. No way I waste another roster spot on a D even when a couple teams have taken 3. I'm still getting depth - of course this isn't redraft where multiple teams taking 3 could thin the pool enough to make it somewhat useful.

Exactly, in this format you have to decide between a diamond or aD that might bust in ayear. But can you still get a D off waivers?

 

[Cookiemonster]

A few. Can you still get a skill position of value. Probably not. When the skill positions are run out, then I look D. There are some pretty good looking fliers for Ds this year that can be had @ the end of the draft. Point is, EVERY defense can be played any given week. Supply exceeds demand.

 

[secretid]

Last year I ended up getting lucky with the Bears (who were top 5 in VBD at one point last season by our scoring) and then had to do match-up based WW stuff on my other slot.

We also start 2 K and I only drafted one so I could hold an extra position player until week 1 (which ended up being Stephen Davis. Sweet!). All that to say that I understand the value of skimping in that area.

The league is not all that good so there will be good position player values left on the back side of the draft. I usually am wishing I had 3 more rounds to grab all the diamonds I'm after. I'm just thinking about the astronomical value a great defense can give you. I mean Bears were top 5 and I got them in the last few rounds of the draft, that's amazing.

 

[There it is]

A few. Can you still get a skill position of value. Probably not. When the skill positions are run out, then I look D. There are some pretty good looking fliers for Ds this year that can be had @ the end of the draft. Point is, EVERY defense can be played any given week. Supply exceeds demand.

Thats why I said every league is different, you have to adjust.You know your league best. If there are a few on the ww then draft the potental, by all means.

 

[BigRed]

Terrible Idea.  You can get the Eagles DEF for free, why take the Panthers in the 10th, the Colts in the 12th, and the Ravens in the 13th?

Because the Iggles D really sucks, but anyway....The unpredictability of Ds plus most being largely similar and as likely to produce means it is stupid to draft extra Ds, esp since w/that slot you could get the next Larry Johnson/etc.

Anyway we don't have this problem as we mandate 2 Ds per team. No more, no less.

 

[secretid]

The unpredictability of Ds plus most being largely similar and as likely to produce means it is stupid to draft extra Ds, esp since w/that slot you could get the next Larry Johnson/etc.

You could also get the next Chicago Bears which is much more probable and not that far behind in value. All with a later draft pick (LJ went in the first half of all my drafts).

 

[Mystery Achiever]

[The unpredictability of Ds plus most being largely similar and as likely to produce means it is stupid to draft extra Ds, esp since w/that slot you could get the next Larry Johnson/etc.

I wouldn't go so far as to all it stupid, but agree with the sentiment. For me it is better to just take two - ( MLBrandow, many "good" owners do this), and swap with the wire as needed. Even in an 18 round league. I've been able to improve my defense that way.

 

[John Mamula]

this is why you should platoon defenses who you can grab late and give you #1 defense production.

i did this last year with Seattle and Chicago, and it worked out amazingly.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

this is why you should platoon defenses who you can grab late and give you #1 defense production.

i did this last year with Seattle and Chicago, and it worked out amazingly.

good point -- meant to add that i take two partially for that possibility. also partially to cover bye week and partially to double my chances of picking "the one".

 

[culdeus]

Taking anything more than the 10th defense is ludicrous. Taking 2 is also stupid as 9/12 of the teams will only take one. So getting the 10th and 15th defense is no better than going WW for the scraps.

TeamD has the lowest correlation of projection to reality of all FFL by my calcs from last year.

IIRC last year NE/BAL/BUF were the top 3 defenses by ADP and only BAL sniffed the top 5 (barely).