Taking timeout before the 2 minute warning (1 Viewer)

[GregR]

This is a topic that spawned out of the Ravens-Steelers game thread.

The situation:

Baltimore is up 13-10 and has the ball. Pittsburgh has 1 timeout. There is 2:04 on the clock and Baltimore will be 3rd and 7. Pittsburgh took their timeout. Here is the run down of why this is a bad idea.

For simplicity let's assume the 3rd and 7 play Baltimore will run will take 5 seconds. (Amount doesn't much matter so long as it is realistic... actual play run was a sack which took 4 seconds.)

Taking the timeout before the 2 minute warning:

Clock stops at 2:04. Pittsburgh is out of timeouts. Baltimore will snap the ball then on 3rd and 7 with 2:04. Regardless of what happens on the play, the clock will stop at the end of the play because of the 2 minute warning. If it is our sample 5 second play, the clock will stop at 1:59, and that is what will be on the clock if Baltimore fails to get the first down and has to punt.

Because Baltimore knows the clock will stop regardless at the end of their play, the negative implications of an incomplete pass (i.e. stopping the clock) are no longer a negative. This means they are free to run or pass as they wish to try to pick up the first down. On 3rd and long, obviously they would rather pass.

Not taking the timeout before the 2 minute warning.

The clock runs down to 2:00 and is stopped for the 2 minute warning. Baltimore runs their 3rd and 7 play with 2:00. It takes 5 seconds. If it is a running play or a complete pass then Pittsburgh takes their timeout and stops the clock at 1:55. If however Baltimore throws the ball and it is incomplete, then the clock still stops at 1:55, but Pittsburgh has their timeout still which can be used to save time while on offense after the punt.

So the difference in time between the start of 4th down in the two situations would be 4 seconds (1:59 vs 1:55). Of course in either scenario, if Baltimore converts the first down your chances to win are plummeting so we're focusing on playing that you'll stop them. However, in the latter situation (save your timeout), you may force Baltimore to go for a 3rd and 7 with a running play to avoid the risk of an incompletion stopping the clock... which is much lower chance of converting a 3rd and long than is a pass play. If they do go for a pass play, then an incompletion saves you the timeout, and you would easily be able to use your timeout when on offense to save more than just 4 seconds of time that the two strategies differ by.

This situation it clearly matters what the down and distance are, and just how many seconds you are saving before the 2 minute warning. If they were calling the timeout at 2:25 that would be a different situation to think through. But the one that Pittsburgh actually faced, the right call would have been to let the clock hit the two minute warning without the timeout.

Note this does not assume the Steelers will jump offsides on 3rd down. If you knew in advance it was going to happen (due to having called the Psychic Network before the game), it would mean even more so that you would want to save your timeout.

Disagree? If so, let's hear the reasoning.

 

[Raider Nation]

Scott Hanson was all over this on Twitter as soon as it happened. I was barely paying attention to the game and didn't notice.

Scott Hanson ‏@ScottHansonDefensive team should never call timeout in clock runoff situation w 2:06 to 2:01 remaining.

 

[Steeler]

You can't call the timeout before the 2 minute warning. You gave good reasons.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

This is a topic that spawned out of the Ravens-Steelers game thread.

The situation:

Baltimore is up 13-10 and has the ball. Pittsburgh has 1 timeout. There is 2:04 on the clock and Baltimore will be 3rd and 7. Pittsburgh took their timeout. Here is the run down of why this is a bad idea.

For simplicity let's assume the 3rd and 7 play Baltimore will run will take 5 seconds. (Amount doesn't much matter so long as it is realistic... actual play run was a sack which took 4 seconds.)

Taking the timeout before the 2 minute warning:

Clock stops at 2:04. Pittsburgh is out of timeouts. Baltimore will snap the ball then on 3rd and 7 with 2:04. Regardless of what happens on the play, the clock will stop at the end of the play because of the 2 minute warning. If it is our sample 5 second play, the clock will stop at 1:59, and that is what will be on the clock if Baltimore fails to get the first down and has to punt.

Because Baltimore knows the clock will stop regardless at the end of their play, the negative implications of an incomplete pass (i.e. stopping the clock) are no longer a negative. This means they are free to run or pass as they wish to try to pick up the first down. On 3rd and long, obviously they would rather pass.

Not taking the timeout before the 2 minute warning.

The clock runs down to 2:00 and is stopped for the 2 minute warning. Baltimore runs their 3rd and 7 play with 2:00. It takes 5 seconds. If it is a running play or a complete pass then Pittsburgh takes their timeout and stops the clock at 1:55. If however Baltimore throws the ball and it is incomplete, then the clock still stops at 1:55, but Pittsburgh has their timeout still which can be used to save time while on offense after the punt.

So the difference in time between the start of 4th down in the two situations would be 4 seconds (1:59 vs 1:55). Of course in either scenario, if Baltimore converts the first down your chances to win are plummeting so we're focusing on playing that you'll stop them. However, in the latter situation (save your timeout), you may force Baltimore to go for a 3rd and 7 with a running play to avoid the risk of an incompletion stopping the clock... which is much lower chance of converting a 3rd and long than is a pass play. If they do go for a pass play, then an incompletion saves you the timeout, and you would easily be able to use your timeout when on offense to save more than just 4 seconds of time that the two strategies differ by.

This situation it clearly matters what the down and distance are, and just how many seconds you are saving before the 2 minute warning. If they were calling the timeout at 2:25 that would be a different situation to think through. But the one that Pittsburgh actually faced, the right call would have been to let the clock hit the two minute warning without the timeout.

Note this does not assume the Steelers will jump offsides on 3rd down. If you knew in advance it was going to happen (due to having called the Psychic Network before the game), it would mean even more so that you would want to save your timeout.

Disagree? If so, let's hear the reasoning.

I've been saying the same thing for years now.The only reason to take it before the 2 minute warning is that most coaches are too dumb to realize that they could throw the ball there without an incompletion hurting them. Tonight was the first time I've actually seen a team throw in that scenario.

Heck, if you're playing against the Rams, Jeff Fisher might just go ahead and punt right then and there on 3rd down if you use the timeout.

 

[Sea Duck]

You should only call the timeout if you know for a fact that:

1. Baltimore is going to run the ball on 2nd and 3rd down

2. your players aren't going to jump offsides

 

[GregR]

Here's a few numbers for further thought.

For 2012 stats leaguewide... going into this week, 269 pass plays were run on 3rd and 7. 33% (88) of them gained a first down. 31% (85) were complete passes but failed to gain the first down. 36% (96) were incomplete and in our situation would have stopped the clock.

30 times a running play was called on 3rd and 7. 8 picked up a first down (27%). 22 failed to convert (73%).

So if the opponent still passed after we let it run to the 2 minute warning (TMW) without using the timeout, around 1/3 of the time we'd expect his pass to fail, stopping the clock and leaving us the timeout to come out far ahead of the 4 seconds we save calling the timeout before the TMW.

And if he runs it to make sure we use the timeout, then he's about 6% less chance of picking up the first down, which means we've eliminated 6% of the times we won't get the ball back with meaningful time.

Granted those numbers won't be perfect, we can probably call some higher percentage passes than the league average, while the defense will probably sell out to stop anything short of the first down marker. But it still gives us a ball park set of numbers to start with.

 

[sporthenry]

Here's a few numbers for further thought.For 2012 stats leaguewide... going into this week, 269 pass plays were run on 3rd and 7. 33% (88) of them gained a first down. 31% (85) were complete passes but failed to gain the first down. 36% (96) were incomplete and in our situation would have stopped the clock.30 times a running play was called on 3rd and 7. 8 picked up a first down (27%). 22 failed to convert (73%).So if the opponent still passed after we let it run to the 2 minute warning (TMW) without using the timeout, around 1/3 of the time we'd expect his pass to fail, stopping the clock and leaving us the timeout to come out far ahead of the 4 seconds we save calling the timeout before the TMW.And if he runs it to make sure we use the timeout, then he's about 6% less chance of picking up the first down, which means we've eliminated 6% of the times we won't get the ball back with meaningful time.Granted those numbers won't be perfect, we can probably call some higher percentage passes than the league average, while the defense will probably sell out to stop anything short of the first down marker. But it still gives us a ball park set of numbers to start with.

This is the problem with situational stats though. 3rd and 7 in the first quarter is almost assuredly a pass but in this situation, I'd assume 3rd down pass might have a higher completion rate b/c they can't sell out on the pass. Likewise, running on 3rd down after the 2 minute warning probably has lower than the average b/c the other team is selling out on the run. So I'd expect the difference to be even greater. Either way, that difference should make the decision easier and it puts more pressure on the other coach. If you call the TO, you'll be scrutinized if they complete a first down. If you wait and they throw an incompletion, they'll be scrutinized. I know some like BB don't coach this way but other coaches trying to keep their jobs will minimize risk/any chance of second guessing.

 

[Drop]

Can you think of any conditions where you would actually want to bait the other team into being more likely to pass?

 

[sporthenry]

Can you think of any conditions where you would actually want to bait the other team into being more likely to pass?

If the other QB is Romo or Rivers and they haven't thrown a pick all day, regression to the mean dictates they'll throw one eventually.

 

[Sea Duck]

Can you think of any conditions where you would actually want to bait the other team into being more likely to pass?

If they have an all-pro running back. If one of their star receivers is injured. If it's raining heavily. If Michael Vick is the quarterback.

 

[Short Corner]

Can you think of any conditions where you would actually want to bait the other team into being more likely to pass?

If the other QB is Romo or Rivers and they haven't thrown a pick all day, regression to the mean dictates they'll throw one eventually.

Regression to the mean doesn't dictate #### in this scenario. Nice try though.

 

[Joe Summer]

Wait, there are people who actually think you should call the timeout before the 2 minute warning??

 

[MAC_32]

Wait, there are people who actually think you should call the timeout before the 2 minute warning??

Under almost all circumstances stances, yes

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Wait, there are people who actually think you should call the timeout before the 2 minute warning??

Who voted for: Yes, take the timeout before the 2 minute warning.shredhead , good_ol_gil , bweiser , Roundhead , mbrasi , flranger , renesauz , Isotopes

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Wait, there are people who actually think you should call the timeout before the 2 minute warning??

Under almost all circumstances stances, yes

Circumstance stance, is that anything like the Buffalo stance?

 

[delusional]

Watch an eagles game if you want to see poor clock management

 

[Leroy Hoard]

On offense only if you are behind.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

how much would it really cost a team to have someone on the payroll where this is there only job....under the circumstances it would probably cost a lot less then what it could be worth in the long run...could round up 32 posters here pretty quick I bet...

"Hipple, Hipple...wake up dude.....we got 4 minutes left in the seond quarter here....here's your headphones....better start looking at the time out situation, score, etc...we made need you in a couple minutes.....then were good till the 4th quarter....so you can go have another sandwich....and we'll see you then..."

 

[MAC_32]

how much would it really cost a team to have someone on the payroll where this is there only job....under the circumstances it would probably cost a lot less then what it could be worth in the long run...could round up 32 posters here pretty quick I bet...

Bellichik had a guy that exclusively did this, read an article about him years ago, no idea if he's still around but I'll bet he is.

 

[sporthenry]

how much would it really cost a team to have someone on the payroll where this is there only job....under the circumstances it would probably cost a lot less then what it could be worth in the long run...could round up 32 posters here pretty quick I bet...

Bellichik had a guy that exclusively did this, read an article about him years ago, no idea if he's still around but I'll bet he is.

I'm sure and you could even go more advanced and dictate what type of offense to run with 5-8 minutes left, whether a hurry up will increase the likelihood of getting the ball back, etc.

 

[SonnyD]

I've been saying this for years. Every team should have a "Clock Management Coach" or "Situational Consultant" on the sidelines right next to the HC in every game. There is so much going on when a team is approaching 2 minutes that many times it's difficult for the coach to keep track of everything. Hell, even if there wasn't much going on 90% of the coaches are too dumb to implement proper clock management and situational play calling.

Another situation/play I've been wondering for years why teams don't implement is the 4th and 1 hurry up play. Depending on field position and game clock, teams should be prepared on the 3rd down play to hurry up to the line and snap the ball if the 3rd down play results in a 4th and less than 2 yards. At a minimum, you'll get the other team to burn a time out.

But of course these types of plays are like rocket science to these buffoons.