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Talent or Opportunity? (1 Viewer)

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Footballguy
You always hear so many people quote 40 times and talk about how players have talent and burst and accuracy and all those things... but, when it comes down to it, is talent any better than opportunity in FF?

Evidence submission for review:

1. CJ SPiller-Comes out of college and people says he has this and he has that and he has so much talent. Yet, to this point, he's a flop. So now he gets a chance. So, if he succeeds now, how do we argue that the talent was the factor? After all, if the talent was always there, would it not have been demonstrated before now, when its NECESSARY to put him on the field?

2. Reggie Bush-Possibly the most hyped player to come out since Peyton and before Luck. Talent, as it was said back then was clearly not the issue. Yet he absolutely disappeared until his opportunity changed. Now, he's actually viable in FF and looks to be a useful part of the Dolphins offense.

3. DeMarco Murray-Ok, here is where it gets fun. I'm sure there will be people that will say "I always said he was more talented, yada yada yada, but the facts with the Cowboys are Romo was hurt and the line was playing terrible and until the injury, the Cowboys never ATTEMPTED to be as balanced. Then Jones comes in and Murray gets in there, they try to protect Romo as he heals and they play some poor pass defenses, and now all of a sudden, the Cowboys actually look like the 90's Cowboys. Talent or opportunity? Would Felix's "talent" show more if he had ever gotten the ball 30 times a game? Would he be good for 20+/80 a game like Murray has been the past few weeks? So much for not losing a job to injury.

4. Arian Foster-My favorite. Although I completely disagree with the people that say he is not really that talented and he is a product of the system, this one would seem to swing the verdict towards "opportunity" IF people actually TRULY believe that Foster is not that talented.

Conventional talk on the boards overall always seems to be "the cream rises to the top" and people take talent first when they draft, but more and more, it seems like it is the situational forum and not the true talent that makes for fantasy success. For every AJ Green that comes along, there seems to be a dozen Stevie Johnsons and Fred Jacksons and Steve Breaston (not saying they aren't talented, but the divide between what people assume is the talent level is in no way that large in terms of fantasy success). Same way, flipped: for every Mark Ingram that costs a ransom on draft day, there exists the Chris Obgannayo that has as good or better success in a given opportunity...

So, not to build a post where people start arguing one player over this one or that one, but just some food for thought: Look around your fantasy leagues as we head to the playoffs and look at those expensive "stud" players. Then look at the guys that cost a fraction less but perform as well..Then look at the guys you never knew a year ago and what they are doing.

Interesting to see, at least for me, in dynasty leagues..

 
Talent can't succeed without opportunity and opportunity won't make lesser talent superior. The problem is talent is all shades of grey which makes this so addicting.

 
It could be argued that all players in the NFL have to have talent, otherwise they would be playing in the UFL, Arena League, or some semi-pro league in parts unknown. Opportunity/situation is the determining factor when trying to evaluate players in fantasy ball.

 
Talent can't succeed without opportunity and opportunity won't make lesser talent superior. The problem is talent is all shades of grey which makes this so addicting.
Talent is oftern used on the board as elite physical attributes versus highly skilled football players. I mean how many times do we we need to read that highly productive guys like Forte and Foster are not that talented? Skills should be a part of talent, but it is much harder to figure out if a guy has gret vision or runs correct routes etc, then know he is really big and fast.
 
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In theory, talent should eventually win out, but those who have been holding Jonathan Stewart for years in Dynasty still haven't seen the payoff. He seems to possess the talent to be a featured RB, but so far DeAngelo has remained in the picture.

Also it seems that Brandon Llyod always possessed the talent but it took 7 years before he finally got the right opportunity in Denver.

The reality is IMO that for some players the right opportunity may never arise.

 
I think talent almost always wins out.

If a guy's not that talented, and not making the most of his opportunities, then he's likely on short list of "positions that need to be addressed." A pair of "opportunity to shine" players this season would be DeMarco Murray and Jackie Battle. Each got their shot due to injuries... I think the Cowboys have a RB, and the Chiefs do not (in Battle).

 
Wow, Im a bit surprised to see people lean towards the opportunity side as much as they have. I tend to agree; just thought it would be opinioned the other way heavily.

Coolnerd's take was interesting to me: It IS a lot easier to see how fast and strong and quick people are; easy to state the "talent" aspect of it. I guess that is why we draft our rookies on talent and then lose out to the opportunities. Such as, we draft Mark Ingram on talent, higher than Daniel Thomas. We draft Thomas higher than usual based on Opportunity. Bothe of them lose by a mile to Murray who had THE opportunity when the door opened, and all the stars aligned just right. And the folks who drafted Felix, based on what many saw as a great talent and opportunity combo; well, they lose big time this year.

I think I am starting to think Talent IS very different (obviously a huge talent difference between ADP and FJAX), but opposrtunity might be the more volitaile because it really seems to swing the pendulum harder. In some ways, talent seems to work against some players. A talent like Gates or Finley or Welker results in a lot of extra attention towards them. THey suffer in ff sometimes while the lesser known Laurent Robinson's of the world just chug right along, week in and week out.

 
It wasn't too long ago that Arian Foster was one of the OPPORTUNITY guys. Now he's a TALENT guy with another OPPORTUNITY guy in Ben Tate right on his heels.

Tomlinson/Turner was a similar situation. Turner made the most of his OPPORTUNITIES in SD and parlayed it into becoming a TALENT guy in ATL.

 
Redraft is a little different, but when your looking long term you have to take elite talents over anyone, even if they are in crap situations. Larry Fitzgerald is the perfect example. Hes in the most miserable situation possible right now and hes on pace for 1300 and 10... elite players make there situation. Redraft I would say opportunity and amount of touches is much more imporant.

Guys like Dez Bryant and Hakeem Nicks are seen as potential elite talents, but I would take a few lesser talents over them because I think there opportunity for targets are a bit capped. The best situation over talent in the past few years that I cant think of is Steve Smith Car vs. Roddy White . Is anyone questioning if smith is a better talent than White after they saw what he can do with a semi competent situation?. Even though Smith is a borderline elite talent, he has been completely shown up by White the past few years and theres no questioning who you would have rather had, Dynasty or Redraft. I have a feeling Smith would have put up some pretty ridiculous numbers if he was getting 170 targets a year on the Falcons with Matt Ryan throwing him the ball, rather than wasting away in carolina with a senile Jake Delhomme and incompetent Matt Moore.

I think I've underrated situation in the past with how I rate guys and I have definitely changed my philosophy a bit of the past year or two. I still think talent is more importatnt though.

 
To base things on opportunity over talent is to say the opportunity isn't going to change. If you can perfectly gauge every teams offense and how the year is going to pan out with injuries, team record and luck, your a better man than me. Dont you think the Peyton Manning injury is a perfect example? What if it was Aaron Rodgers were to have gotten knocked out week 1. Do we think Jordy nelson would be a top 10 WR and have more fantasy point than guys like Bowe, Marshall, White, Nicks, Bryant? I certainly dont.

I think you can look at mental stability and lower players because of that. Brandon Lloyd was a bust for so long because he had no work ethic and was extremely inconsistent as a player in general. Dez Bryant may never become what he could because he runs sloppy routes and cant stay healthy thus far. I am far from trusting Bryant in redraft, in dynasty hes easily top 10. Guys with value based on situation over talent have a much more violent decrease in value if crap hits the fan. Guys like Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones Drew, Steven Jackson, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are crap hitting the fan proof. It seems like AJ Green May Approach that territory as well. Guys that are rock solid all around players dont need the situation to be even average to take over a game.

Its also nice knowing the guy you have has job security regardless of if he gets injured or goes on a bad streak. The longer the leash the more comfortable I feel. Also , I saw someone menton injurys, Starting to believe that more and more. Mcfadden is kinda the guy that I've cooled on the most recently. Injuries to your studs is devastating almost all the time.

 
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This makes for a fun thread and the initial prompt is thoughtful. But it isn't an either/or question. You need both (and health) to be a stud. There are other factors at play too (coaching, supporting cast, etc.). There is a complex and ultimately unobserveable interaction between these factors that culminate in the weekly fantasy points we see.

 
'Dizzy said:
It wasn't too long ago that Arian Foster was one of the OPPORTUNITY guys. Now he's a TALENT guy with another OPPORTUNITY guy in Ben Tate right on his heels.Tomlinson/Turner was a similar situation. Turner made the most of his OPPORTUNITIES in SD and parlayed it into becoming a TALENT guy in ATL.
The problem I have is there are many that equate talent with draft position. Talent is not that easly defined. Would you trade Mark Ingram for Arain Foster? We know who has more oppertunity but which one is more talented?
 
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I ALWAYS SIDE WITH TALENT!!

Situations can change with the wind and talent is a constant. In a perfect world I will be in a dynasty league where all of the other owners value situation over opportunity. A perfect example was in 2007 when Brandon Jackson went #4 in our dynasty league rookie draft while Michael Bush went 4 picks later.....

I'll take the most talented player available while others follow the "situation" herd right off of the cliff!

 
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I ALWAYS SIDE WITH TALENT!!Situations can change with the wind and talent is a constant. In a perfect world I will be in a dynasty league where all of the other owners value situation over opportunity. A perfect example was in 2007 when Brandon Jackson went #4 in our dynasty league rookie draft while Michael Bush went 4 picks later.....I'll take the most talented player available while others follow the "situation" herd right off of the cliff!
In dynasty yes, I guess the question was defined well enough to cover all league types.
 
I'm going to go with opportunity. I was just watching some game film on some rookies/ college guys and they all look like Pro Bowlers coming out of college. Granted the the talent around them is better in the NFL but given the opportunity they all look special (to my non-expert eye).

 
Simple answer is to target both. I'd like to draft talent first, but if an opportunity player is out there you have to go with the guy that is going to put points on the board.

I've noticed most owners tend to like talent over opportunity, but most owners HATE to wait for that talent to pay off. A good plan is to go with the opportunity back, get some points and then trade him for the talent once the time is right.

 
'Dizzy said:
It wasn't too long ago that Arian Foster was one of the OPPORTUNITY guys. Now he's a TALENT guy with another OPPORTUNITY guy in Ben Tate right on his heels.Tomlinson/Turner was a similar situation. Turner made the most of his OPPORTUNITIES in SD and parlayed it into becoming a TALENT guy in ATL.
The problem I have is there are many that equate talent with draft position. Talent is not that easly defined. Would you trade Mark Ingram for Arain Foster? We know who has more oppertunity but which one is more talented?
Arian Foster is clearly one of the most talented RB's in the NFL... but he had to wait for his opportunity and capitalized on it. He's got great vision as the play develops, and that's a gift that you will never know a guy possesses until he's out there in game conditions. The great backs can see creases and slip through them, see lanes opening (before they open), know when to cut it back downfield and take it to the house.There's a lot more to "talent" than just the physical gifts of size, speed, power, etc.Ingram has shown flashes, and I think was getting over the hump in that game against Indy... then the INJ bug bit him. Now he has to go back and fight for opportunities all over again. Only time will tell if he truly is as talented as many believe.What a player did in college doesn't mean squat. It is a quantum leap to the NFL level.
 
'Dizzy said:
It wasn't too long ago that Arian Foster was one of the OPPORTUNITY guys. Now he's a TALENT guy with another OPPORTUNITY guy in Ben Tate right on his heels.

Tomlinson/Turner was a similar situation. Turner made the most of his OPPORTUNITIES in SD and parlayed it into becoming a TALENT guy in ATL.
The problem I have is there are many that equate talent with draft position. Talent is not that easly defined. Would you trade Mark Ingram for Arain Foster? We know who has more oppertunity but which one is more talented?
exactly. talent doesn't equal draft position. FFers seem to always forget how little scouts/teams actually know about how a college athlete will perform against professional athletes. it's an inexact science and teams tend to make decisions based on raw physical tools. the mantra that a "team wouldn't have traded up to get X if they weren't going to play him" is one of the bigger fallacies around this board. just like a kiss, a draft choice is not a contract.

ultimately, i'd do it like this:

talent

opportunity

draft position

 

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