Heading into year four of the Tavon Austin experiment, the Rams still don’t appear to have much idea what to do with the player they moved up aggressively in the first round of the 2013 draft to secure.
Austin has moved around on offense in an attempt to maximize his playmaking ability, but while 2015 was his best season, he still had just 907 yards from scrimmage to his name over the full season, or fewer than Kamar Aiken in Baltimore.
Jeff Fisher, at least, is bullish about his prospects, claiming he could double his reception total and notch over 100 passes in 2016. Four players topped 100 receptions in 2014, with seven managing it in 2015, and the league has never been more set up to produce catches by volume.
Austin caught 64.2 percent of the passes sent his way in 2015, meaning that, for him to top 100 catches this season at that same rate, he would need 156 targets, which would have been the sixth-highest total of 2015.
The issue for Austin is that the five players with more targets than that in 2015 are all outside, perimeter, unquestioned No. 1 targets for their offenses, and Austin can’t be that guy at his size. He needs to be the Jarvis Landry of his offense—a smaller, shifty receiver that can be reliable underneath and on quick passes, picking up yardage after the catch. Landry caught 110 passes in 2015, so that role can certainly achieve those numbers, but that isn’t how the Rams have been deploying Austin to date. He may be thought of as a slot receiver, but only 17 of his 81 targets (21.0 percent) came from the slot in 2015.
The Rams have been lining Austin up outside and then feeding him the ball on bubble screens and quick hitches with the occasional deep route worked in. Austin runs one of the most basic route trees in the NFL, and until that develops, there is little to no chance of him catching those 100 passes.