Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
My usual strategy is that unless there is clear value relative to ADP, I usually wait on TEs to grab quality starting value at RB/WR as outside of the top 3-5 TEs, there is usually value to be found much later. A zero-TE strategy, if you will.
This year, however, given the continued prevalence of 2 TE sets, a lot of team's having potential TEBCs, and what I see as significant drop-off after the Top 5, I am not sure that forgoing TEs in the first 4 rounds is a tradeoff for the point differential these Top 5 TEs provide relative to other starting TEs.
The Top 5 I see (and believe this is consensus) are: Gronk, Kelce, Ertz, and Olsen as locks, with Graham rounding it out given his talent and opportunity on a high volume offense. ADPs for these guys generally lie around 50-60 overall -- I'm in a 14 team league, but even in a more standard 12 teamer, these guys will likely all be gone by 5th round.
Beyond the Top 5, there seems to me to be more questions than usual.
I think guys like Engram and Walker are the primary targets, given opportunity and their performance last year. While Mariota needs to show consistency, I think Walker is safer -- with Saquon now on the Giants and some quality WRs, I think their run/pass balance shifts a little and they will look to use Barkley as an outlet as well, meaning less targets for Engram.
Kyle Rudolph is also spoken of in this tier, but having owned him last year (and in previous years) and not being a huge believer in Cousins (talented and unquestionably productive but not special IMHO and on a new team that brings some adjustments), and with Cook being healthy and having 2 fantastic WRs and some quality depth behind them, I am not sure that Rudolph's TD total (the source of his value last year) will be the same this year.
So I am worried about needing to take these guys a little earlier than their ADP to secure production.
Why? Because after those guys, I have huge question marks:
My strategy is going to still be a wait and see, targeting guys like Kittle or Njoku, but seems like, depending on how the draft falls to me, I may need to plan to be a little earlier on both these guys, or secure a TOp 5 TE way earlier than I'd like (and also potentially ahead of ADP) to get meaningful production at this position this year. I think having a few points differential at the TE position really helps my squad pull out games, whereas in the past you could potentially see less of a spread between guys outside the top 2-3 and the rest in the Top 15.
I don't like it, but that's what I'm seeing right now. Thoughts on these TEs and how you are attacking TE strategy this year?
This year, however, given the continued prevalence of 2 TE sets, a lot of team's having potential TEBCs, and what I see as significant drop-off after the Top 5, I am not sure that forgoing TEs in the first 4 rounds is a tradeoff for the point differential these Top 5 TEs provide relative to other starting TEs.
The Top 5 I see (and believe this is consensus) are: Gronk, Kelce, Ertz, and Olsen as locks, with Graham rounding it out given his talent and opportunity on a high volume offense. ADPs for these guys generally lie around 50-60 overall -- I'm in a 14 team league, but even in a more standard 12 teamer, these guys will likely all be gone by 5th round.
Beyond the Top 5, there seems to me to be more questions than usual.
I think guys like Engram and Walker are the primary targets, given opportunity and their performance last year. While Mariota needs to show consistency, I think Walker is safer -- with Saquon now on the Giants and some quality WRs, I think their run/pass balance shifts a little and they will look to use Barkley as an outlet as well, meaning less targets for Engram.
Kyle Rudolph is also spoken of in this tier, but having owned him last year (and in previous years) and not being a huge believer in Cousins (talented and unquestionably productive but not special IMHO and on a new team that brings some adjustments), and with Cook being healthy and having 2 fantastic WRs and some quality depth behind them, I am not sure that Rudolph's TD total (the source of his value last year) will be the same this year.
So I am worried about needing to take these guys a little earlier than their ADP to secure production.
Why? Because after those guys, I have huge question marks:
- Jordan Reed: super talented, but no way am I going to bank on his health.
- Jack Doyle: Very productive in past, even when Fleener was splitting reps, but I think Ebron is super talented and could spell a sizeable downtick in Doyle's production, making both unsteady selections as your TE1
- David Njoku: Has talent and opportunity, but CLE's revamped offense, including a pretty impressive group of WRs, makes me believe targets/opportunity will also decrease this year compared to last
- Trey Burton: Gets talked up a lot but weren't we hearing the same praise heaped on Shaheen last year, who was pretty effective? I think the heat around Burton may be more manufactured than real and may disappoint relative to ADP
- O.J. Howard: Also being talked up but Brate has been solid and is still on the scene and limits upside (I can see them both being used if Brate continues to be healthy and productive) - like in IND, the availability of two talented TEs limits both guys' upside -- I can easily see production evenly split between them this year, with not enough for both to really be competitive at the fantasy position.
- Cameron Brate (see Howard above)
- George Kittle: Garoppolo's buzz is off the charts and Kittle's as a result. Really promising 2017 makes him a target for me in later rounds, but I think he's being targeted by everyone, meaning you would potentially need to pounce a little before his ADP to secure him.
- Eric Ebron (see Doyle above)
My strategy is going to still be a wait and see, targeting guys like Kittle or Njoku, but seems like, depending on how the draft falls to me, I may need to plan to be a little earlier on both these guys, or secure a TOp 5 TE way earlier than I'd like (and also potentially ahead of ADP) to get meaningful production at this position this year. I think having a few points differential at the TE position really helps my squad pull out games, whereas in the past you could potentially see less of a spread between guys outside the top 2-3 and the rest in the Top 15.
I don't like it, but that's what I'm seeing right now. Thoughts on these TEs and how you are attacking TE strategy this year?