If he puts up those #'s he is jumping a tier as he goes from 60-612-0 to 85-750-5...doesn't make him all-world but at age 23 it puts him on the doorstep of a nice run of top 10 seasons.
I just did a little more math and looked at Clay's projections. I think you're right. He had 93 targets last year and for some reason I figured with Robinson gone and defenses keying in on Mooney, there it wouldn't be much of a leap to project him to get a bump into being a 120 target guy. Looking now at the '21 target leaders on a per game basis:
9.0 Andrews
8.5 Waller
8.4 Kelce
7.3 Gronk
7.0 Hockensen
6.7-6.5- Kittle/Ertz/Gisecki/Pitts
6.1 Schultz
5.7-5.1- Higbee/Fant/Kmet/Cook/Conklin/Godert
Friermuth came on late obviously with a 6 targets/game over his last 11 games.
So even an inefficient 120 targets definitely puts him jumping a tier. That feels, in retrospect, like a pretty big jump but
may be justified. That offense though. Yikes.
Andrews and Kelce I think you have to assume that with their teams losing their top WR, they're not losing targets. If anything more but age might start catching up with Kelce. Andrews obviously. Both of these guys...
Waller has to suffer there in LV. Supreme talent but Adams is going to eat into those targets. Not sure how much lower on the list he goes but I love the talent. You have to have him in your top 4 I think. Renfrow loses more than Waller IMO.
Pitts to the moon is great but tough to know how much Mariota/Ridder/ London can be a better environment for him to start scoring TDs. Shame Pitts first 3 years will be wasted on bad QB/offense. They're probably drafting a QB next year that'll take a year to (hopefully) be good. So Pitts looks like your TE1 in 2024, yay? I think he's going to have a tough time being a top 4 guy.
Hock will be fine but that offense will have legit WRs as the year goes on. Offense up, target competition up too. So modest bump down but his talent is immense so the potential for him to become dominant will be always present.
Gronk's going to Gronk, after he signs.
Kittle is a beast and should be featured in SF. Deebo obviously is talented but there's no way he repeats 2021.
Schultz should continue to be a top target in Dallas. Cooper is gone but if Gallup is healthy and if Tolbert is good, he could lose some targets for sure. He's a guy everyone's in on that feels like he could be TE5 or TE15.
Gisecki keeps being a better fantasy TE than people project him to be. Will this be the year that that Hill/Waddle is too much WR talent for him to overcome? Does McDaniel even have a role for a TE that isn't a badass blocker? The floor is low but dude keeps producing. It's funny we think of RBs as being "next man up" league winners but these TEs can absolutely soak up fantasy points when WRs go down.
Eagles with AJB/Smith and Godert is a rising tide but the limitations of their passing game plus target competition have to bump him down.
Ertz might be the interesting guy with a wide range of outcomes to take a late shot on.
So Kmet could easily jump a tier this year but it's tough to see him get into the top 6 where they're making a huge difference in your lineup. Maybe if Fields takes the leap, Kmet goes with him. To the stratosphere!!! I haven't been playing long enough to see how these guys careers progress.