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TE Cole Kmet, CHI (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter 3nOut
- Start date
3quinox825
Footballguy
is kmet worth a 23' mid to late 2nd rounder?
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
Had that exact trade happen in my league.
For the right team I think it's an OK deal.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
Efficiency won’t be there but the targets will.
3quinox825
Footballguy
How do you mean? Haven't seen him play but the targets look there and I am a fan of age and measurables. Is he just not good? lol.
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
Bears I’m guessing project to score just under 2 tds per game. 1.9 last year.
I see an inefficient season like 120 targets, 85 catches 750 yards 5 touchdowns from him. I think he’s undervalued for sure but he’s not jumping tiers unless that whole offense improves.
Cjw_55106
Footballguy
RC94
Footballguy
I do think Mooney is still most likely to lead the team in receiving, but I think Kmet starts putting it together this year and we see a good improvement. ETA - Another reason I like Kmet to show significant improvement is because young QBs often lean on their TE if they have a good one like Kmet.
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Boston
Footballguy
If he puts up those #'s he is jumping a tier as he goes from 60-612-0 to 85-750-5...doesn't make him all-world but at age 23 it puts him on the doorstep of a nice run of top 10 seasons.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
Yeah, 750-5 is working for me. I reckon the TD's will be higher and the yards lower though. Looking more at 650-7.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
This will be Kmet's third season, so I would imagine it should be his career year, so far at least.
zamboni
Footballguy
I can see a situation where Kmet leads the team in receiving. With Mooney having little help around him at the WR position, have to imagine that secondaries will be bracketing coverage on him. While he's proven to be a very good receiver, I'm not sure Mooney is that good to produce regardless, possibly opening up a lot of targets for Kmet.
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
I just did a little more math and looked at Clay's projections. I think you're right. He had 93 targets last year and for some reason I figured with Robinson gone and defenses keying in on Mooney, there it wouldn't be much of a leap to project him to get a bump into being a 120 target guy. Looking now at the '21 target leaders on a per game basis:
9.0 Andrews
8.5 Waller
8.4 Kelce
7.3 Gronk
7.0 Hockensen
6.7-6.5- Kittle/Ertz/Gisecki/Pitts
6.1 Schultz
5.7-5.1- Higbee/Fant/Kmet/Cook/Conklin/Godert
Friermuth came on late obviously with a 6 targets/game over his last 11 games.
So even an inefficient 120 targets definitely puts him jumping a tier. That feels, in retrospect, like a pretty big jump but may be justified. That offense though. Yikes.
Andrews and Kelce I think you have to assume that with their teams losing their top WR, they're not losing targets. If anything more but age might start catching up with Kelce. Andrews obviously. Both of these guys...
Waller has to suffer there in LV. Supreme talent but Adams is going to eat into those targets. Not sure how much lower on the list he goes but I love the talent. You have to have him in your top 4 I think. Renfrow loses more than Waller IMO.
Pitts to the moon is great but tough to know how much Mariota/Ridder/ London can be a better environment for him to start scoring TDs. Shame Pitts first 3 years will be wasted on bad QB/offense. They're probably drafting a QB next year that'll take a year to (hopefully) be good. So Pitts looks like your TE1 in 2024, yay? I think he's going to have a tough time being a top 4 guy.
Hock will be fine but that offense will have legit WRs as the year goes on. Offense up, target competition up too. So modest bump down but his talent is immense so the potential for him to become dominant will be always present.
Gronk's going to Gronk, after he signs.
Kittle is a beast and should be featured in SF. Deebo obviously is talented but there's no way he repeats 2021.
Schultz should continue to be a top target in Dallas. Cooper is gone but if Gallup is healthy and if Tolbert is good, he could lose some targets for sure. He's a guy everyone's in on that feels like he could be TE5 or TE15.
Gisecki keeps being a better fantasy TE than people project him to be. Will this be the year that that Hill/Waddle is too much WR talent for him to overcome? Does McDaniel even have a role for a TE that isn't a badass blocker? The floor is low but dude keeps producing. It's funny we think of RBs as being "next man up" league winners but these TEs can absolutely soak up fantasy points when WRs go down.
Eagles with AJB/Smith and Godert is a rising tide but the limitations of their passing game plus target competition have to bump him down.
Ertz might be the interesting guy with a wide range of outcomes to take a late shot on.
So Kmet could easily jump a tier this year but it's tough to see him get into the top 6 where they're making a huge difference in your lineup. Maybe if Fields takes the leap, Kmet goes with him. To the stratosphere!!! I haven't been playing long enough to see how these guys careers progress.
Boston
Footballguy
The bad news with Kmet is the offense…the good news with Kmet is the offense…they really don’t have many weapons so if he takes his game to the next level he could be in line for some puffed up stats…at the end of last year he started looking the part…I am hoping that continues and turns into a TE that is reliable top 10 option for a long time…it is year 3 for him and it’s time to figure out what he is.
Last 9 games of the season prorated to a full season put him on pace for 107/72/783/0.
I feel like that's in range of his floor provided good health. During that time he was TE17 on average in PPR leagues and really had no value, to push into the top 5 with that kind of production he's need something close to be averaging half a TD a game.
A 6'6" TE with a 37" vertical catching 60 balls and not scoring a TD sure seems odd. Only got 3 targets inside the 10 yard line all year.
In the end I feel pretty bullish on his odds to hit at least 70/700 but that's useless without the TD's so I keep coming back to that being the key, he's got to start getting in the paint. Again from a size and athletic angle it's mystifying why he's not a bigger factor in the redzone.
He just turned 23. Most of our top fantasy TE's took big leaps in production from year one to two so you like seeing that. He's going to be heavily involved this year and as I keep saying just needs TD's and if he does he'll be very useful and well worth a second if you need TE help.
But long term, despite his youth, I feel like he's a Kyle Rudolph level talent but without the red zone chops. He's the rare 23 year old I might value more in redraft then dynasty. I personally think the play in dynasty is to enjoy what he gives you this year and then look to move on as the assumption will be he's on the rise but when Bears get some competent weapons in the passing game my guess is his usage will fall considerably and he'll be more of that 50/500 type.
I feel like that's in range of his floor provided good health. During that time he was TE17 on average in PPR leagues and really had no value, to push into the top 5 with that kind of production he's need something close to be averaging half a TD a game.
A 6'6" TE with a 37" vertical catching 60 balls and not scoring a TD sure seems odd. Only got 3 targets inside the 10 yard line all year.
In the end I feel pretty bullish on his odds to hit at least 70/700 but that's useless without the TD's so I keep coming back to that being the key, he's got to start getting in the paint. Again from a size and athletic angle it's mystifying why he's not a bigger factor in the redzone.
He just turned 23. Most of our top fantasy TE's took big leaps in production from year one to two so you like seeing that. He's going to be heavily involved this year and as I keep saying just needs TD's and if he does he'll be very useful and well worth a second if you need TE help.
But long term, despite his youth, I feel like he's a Kyle Rudolph level talent but without the red zone chops. He's the rare 23 year old I might value more in redraft then dynasty. I personally think the play in dynasty is to enjoy what he gives you this year and then look to move on as the assumption will be he's on the rise but when Bears get some competent weapons in the passing game my guess is his usage will fall considerably and he'll be more of that 50/500 type.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
He didn't catch TD's cos they put Jimmy Graham in ahead of basically every time they got to the redzone.
Came here to say this
Except it's a false narrative.
Kmet had 12 red zone targets to Graham's 8.
Truth is for whatever reasons exist Kmet's had one decent year he got in the end zone and that was his last year in college. In his other 4 combined college and pro seasons he's got a total of two TD's. That is total. Two!
I don't know why a 6'6" big bodied TE with a 37" vertical is not a big red zone threat but he just has not been and it's not because of Graham stealing all the targets. He needs to come around on this to be good for fantasy, the catches and yards should be available.
Oh dang! For reals?
Completely felt like the truth here. I need to go look up the numbers. Appreciate it
Relying on him as my TE1 in a TE-premium league. I do have Albert O as well, but not expecting as much out of him. Also have Gronk as a fallback, but hoping Kmet cracks the top-10 or better. It's possible.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Is Cole Kmet the Frog ready to leap into the TE1 territory?
Cole Kmet is entering a crucial third year...
...Many tight ends break out in their third year, which is why this year is so crucial. Cole Kmet had a mini-breakout last year despite not catching any touchdowns. That’s due to Jimmy Graham and not Kmet. Graham is gone, and Kmet’s the lead dog in the tight end room for the Chicago Bears in 2022. Expect Cole to open some eyes this year, either in a good or bad way.
Cole Kmet 2021 Season
One can easily say that Cole Kmet’s 2021 season was a success. He more than doubled his career yardage, receptions, and targets. Granted, he failed to catch a touchdown due to Jimmy. Cole started all 17 games, playing 83% of the team’s offensive snaps. He saw 93 targets and caught 60 of them for 612 yards. This equates to a very healthy 10.2 yards per reception.
Kmet had to battle with Graham for red zone targets while dealing with a flurry of quarterback changes. It didn’t help that he had a head coach way in over his head. After seeing what Kmet had to go through on the Bears in 2021, I’d say he showcased a lot of talent and composure. Cole was a steady, reliable tight end and TE2 in fantasy.
Cole Kmet 2022 Season Outlook
In 2022, Cole Kmet will be playing to prove he’s worth a big-money extension. He’ll also ...
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Go to the link for the full read.
Cole Kmet is entering a crucial third year...
...Many tight ends break out in their third year, which is why this year is so crucial. Cole Kmet had a mini-breakout last year despite not catching any touchdowns. That’s due to Jimmy Graham and not Kmet. Graham is gone, and Kmet’s the lead dog in the tight end room for the Chicago Bears in 2022. Expect Cole to open some eyes this year, either in a good or bad way.
Cole Kmet 2021 Season
One can easily say that Cole Kmet’s 2021 season was a success. He more than doubled his career yardage, receptions, and targets. Granted, he failed to catch a touchdown due to Jimmy. Cole started all 17 games, playing 83% of the team’s offensive snaps. He saw 93 targets and caught 60 of them for 612 yards. This equates to a very healthy 10.2 yards per reception.
Kmet had to battle with Graham for red zone targets while dealing with a flurry of quarterback changes. It didn’t help that he had a head coach way in over his head. After seeing what Kmet had to go through on the Bears in 2021, I’d say he showcased a lot of talent and composure. Cole was a steady, reliable tight end and TE2 in fantasy.
Cole Kmet 2022 Season Outlook
In 2022, Cole Kmet will be playing to prove he’s worth a big-money extension. He’ll also ...
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Go to the link for the full read.
Boston
Footballguy
Good article...they are dead-on...I am cautiously optimistic about him as everything appears to be in place for him to make a leap...he needs to prove he can be a reliable fantasy TE this year...if not, it will be time to move on...the fact that he is only 23 is a nice little bonus as far as Dynasty goes.
zamboni
Footballguy
Kmet is probably my favorite later round TE that has the potential to really surprise on the upside.
A lot of drafters are scared off by Fields and the Bears offense - and no TDs by Kmet last year - but he's in line for a lot of targets competing with only Mooney. That's what I want with my TE - being no worse than the second option in the passing game.
A lot of drafters are scared off by Fields and the Bears offense - and no TDs by Kmet last year - but he's in line for a lot of targets competing with only Mooney. That's what I want with my TE - being no worse than the second option in the passing game.
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Deranged Hermit
Not cool & Pissed
I'm with you. If I can't get a top three or four guy, I'm waiting on Kmet later.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Wanna update any of this? Good stuff back in May
Tau837
Footballguy
Came here to say this
Except it's a false narrative.
Kmet had 12 red zone targets to Graham's 8.
Truth is for whatever reasons exist Kmet's had one decent year he got in the end zone and that was his last year in college. In his other 4 combined college and pro seasons he's got a total of two TD's. That is total. Two!
I don't know why a 6'6" big bodied TE with a 37" vertical is not a big red zone threat but he just has not been and it's not because of Graham stealing all the targets. He needs to come around on this to be good for fantasy, the catches and yards should be available.
The Bears offense only had 60 red zone targets total, compared to 151 rushing attempts. The fact that Kmet had 20% of the red zone targets is pretty encouraging IMO.
Mookie Gizzy
Footballguy
Might as well started Cap Boso
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
1 target. 
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Buy Low
They won, yes/no? How often does Chicago pull that off? Would he be targeted if they were down 1-2 scores the whole way?
They won, yes/no? How often does Chicago pull that off? Would he be targeted if they were down 1-2 scores the whole way?
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
weird anomaly this week
better days ahead def hold
better days ahead def hold
The Frankman
Footballguy
VikingFrog
Footballguy
This tight end trial is over.
I think we can safely drop Kmet.
I think we can safely drop Kmet.
FairWarning
Footballguy
I dropped him last week and he was scooped
up and started.
FairWarning
Footballguy
The Mooney numbers rival that, and he was going anywhere from rounds 3-5.
Boston
Footballguy
Well, 2 receptions for 4 yards is much better so he did deserve to be drafted higher...what a disaster.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
I can't imagine the Bears' passing game won't improve a little as the season goes on ... but we should feel no obligation to wait for that to happen.
Welcome to Dumpsville, Cole. Population: You (and Mooney)
Welcome to Dumpsville, Cole. Population: You (and Mooney)
