Boston
Footballguy
Add in Agholor and Harry as well…more wasted $ and high picks at the skill positions.
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TE Jonnu Smith, MIA (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Biabreakable
- Start date
Add in Agholor and Harry as well…more wasted $ and high picks at the skill positions.
RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
Taking Harry over Deebo, AJ Brown, and DK is gonna haunt the Pats for a while. Their ability to pick WRs is abysmal.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Fortunately for NE, as bad as they have been in some areas, they have been far more skilled at finding gems at other positions. Rookie Jack Jones is currently PFF's top rated CB (4th rounder) while Jonathan Jones is ranked 10th (undrafted). Harris and Stevenson (3rd and 4th rounders) lead the league's #1 ranked rushing offense (based on DVOA). There's also Meyers at receiver and the other Jones as a returner. Even Zappe was able to step in and not fall apart. Who had money down on Zappe being the first rookie QB to throw a TD from the class of 2022 QB class?
FYI, Mac was back at practice today, as was Thornton. I think Thornton will end up helping the offense by drawing coverage, freeing up some space, and opening some lanes that haven't been there so far.
Boston
Footballguy
They have drafted better the last few years but they had a stretch where it was just awful and it is the main reason they are in the spot they are now in.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Clearly Harry ended up being a bust, but as discussed in the Harry thread, at the time there were several draft evaluators and sites that were big fans of Harry. It's easy after the fact to say how bad a pick it was, but it's not like they drafted Harry three rounds early and there were clearly, better options. They took one of the guys in the mix that was slated to be late first / early second round picks. They swung and missed. It happens.
Boston
Footballguy
Where I disagree with this is they swung and totally missed...it is not like a Michel where he was overdrafted but they got some good play from here...it is not like Wynn who looks bad but at least has shown signs he can play at times...like Keene and Assiasi they got absolutely nothing.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
In some ways, it's better to completely miss on draft picks than end up with guys that are just marginal or ok. For example, they would have been better off if Isaiah Wynn was terrible out of the gate than keeping him, using his 5th year option, and now having to bench him. They are paying him $10.5 million, and they can't rely on him to play well enough to not get a QB mauled.
Having all those drafts with little return allowed them to have money to bring in other players. They just brought in some of the wrong guys or gave them too much money. As of now, they have $56 million in cap space next year. Because they reworked Jonnu's deal, he carries a $17 million cap hit in 2023. Ungood.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Yeah, I get it. Michel at least was a big cog on a post season / SB run. Wynn was decent enough when he played but often was hurt. This year, he doesn't appear to be injured . . . he just seems slow and out of position most of the time. Cannon off the street looked better against GB. Keene and Asiasi were complete wastes . . . but unfortunately you don't know what you get or don't get until after the fact.
Going back the past decade's worth of drafts, there really haven't been many decent TE's that were selected after Pick 90+ (roughly where NE took Asiasi). The only four notables were Kittle, Schultz, Higbee, and Knox. The rest of the lot were pretty non-descript and many (most?) are already out of the league. Still doesn't help the sting of wasting a 3rd and a 4th on TE's that amounted to moldy bread. But few teams hit on those picks.
Due $10-11M this year with $6.25M guaranteed. Great for NE to get that off the books. Is this what Atlanta has been spending two years getting their salary cap in order to pull off? Oof.
ETA-a few people have tweeted out that NE saved $4.4M with the trade. OTC was showing Jonnu has $6.25m guaranteed, so tought they'd save more and Atlanta would pay more. Maybe some of that guarantee was already paid out. Either way he was moved for a 7th.
ETA-a few people have tweeted out that NE saved $4.4M with the trade. OTC was showing Jonnu has $6.25m guaranteed, so tought they'd save more and Atlanta would pay more. Maybe some of that guarantee was already paid out. Either way he was moved for a 7th.
Boston
Footballguy
Good riddance...tough to stress how disappointing he has been...like most Patriot fans I was excited when they signed him as I was expecting to see them tap into his athleticism...unfortunately all we got were dropped balls, penalties and articles about how this was the week they would get him into space and unleash him only to never see it happen...solid blocker but by no means was that why they gave him a big contract...glad to be done with him but it does open up another hole on an offense that already has a lot of holes.
Boston
Footballguy
Miguel Benzan Patriots Cap Space Equals 34,573,844
@patscap
My new Patriots salary cap space number after the Jonnu Smith trade is $34,573,844 - a $3,668,529 increase. The Patriots also created $18.405M in cap space for the 2024 season.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Jonnu blocks much better than Pitts which ironically causes defenses to worry about him less as a weapon than they do Pitts.
Jonnu to Steelers only if Friermuth doesn't re-sign as expected. Otherwise I don't think they have a need.
I'm not sure what the Fins or Jets are doing at TE although every off-season I think I do. His down field blocking would be a nice addition to the speed of the Fins.
I think that's his value now- blocking inline and down field, backup TE.
Assuming Schultz is re-signed, he could back him up (always dinged) and come on in two TE sets.
I'm not sure what the Fins or Jets are doing at TE although every off-season I think I do. His down field blocking would be a nice addition to the speed of the Fins.
I think that's his value now- blocking inline and down field, backup TE.
Assuming Schultz is re-signed, he could back him up (always dinged) and come on in two TE sets.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
I don't know, man. Gesicki basically died there after having a monster year and McDaniel's response to reporters asking questions about it was that their tight ends block. And it was strongly implied that they better block because they only block. I'd rather see Smith wind up elsewhere.
I didn't mean only but he's getting up there in age.
2yrs 10 mil with the Dolphins
Here's a classic Arthur play. Notice all the players around Smith. He shifts to set that up, usually with big bodies out wide, and doesn't really care about the DBs because they're that much bigger they'll win blocks.
That play isn't usually to Smith. He's usually the blocker and the "oh wait it's to him" pause by the D allows Smith to break free similar to how teams did when a FB would get a carry or reception years ago.
As I said before, McDaniel loves to get his speed demons up the sideline and off to the races. He doesn't use 3-4 guys like Arthur did. The target WR, another WR near and possibly someone out of the backfield swinging by there.
McDaniel's prob could be that he has to do it Arthur's way and he needs other willing blockers. From the right hash, if I saw Jonnu and Tyreek on the far left side, I'd be totally ready for it on D. But then again, cat n mouse, a pump fake screen probably puts Tyreek wide open deep.
Idk and I don't want to pretend but this very much suits the Dolphins.
Both coaches also do a lot of "look here" motion and then simply run it up the gut since the second level defense is distracted.
Jonnu appears not that fast and then...woah look at him go. We know McDaniel loves that too
Only talking a handful of plays per game outside, don't want to overstate this
Here's a classic Arthur play. Notice all the players around Smith. He shifts to set that up, usually with big bodies out wide, and doesn't really care about the DBs because they're that much bigger they'll win blocks.
That play isn't usually to Smith. He's usually the blocker and the "oh wait it's to him" pause by the D allows Smith to break free similar to how teams did when a FB would get a carry or reception years ago.
As I said before, McDaniel loves to get his speed demons up the sideline and off to the races. He doesn't use 3-4 guys like Arthur did. The target WR, another WR near and possibly someone out of the backfield swinging by there.
McDaniel's prob could be that he has to do it Arthur's way and he needs other willing blockers. From the right hash, if I saw Jonnu and Tyreek on the far left side, I'd be totally ready for it on D. But then again, cat n mouse, a pump fake screen probably puts Tyreek wide open deep.
Idk and I don't want to pretend but this very much suits the Dolphins.
Both coaches also do a lot of "look here" motion and then simply run it up the gut since the second level defense is distracted.
Jonnu appears not that fast and then...woah look at him go. We know McDaniel loves that too
Only talking a handful of plays per game outside, don't want to overstate this
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I agree with much of this.
It’s a bummer as I’d love to see Smith catch another 50, but it’s probably going to be under that.
That said, one bright side of the landing spot is that I could see him used as a red zone target since they don’t have a lot of size at WR. Wouldn’t be shocked to see him exceed the 3 TD he had in 2023.
That he’s a starting TE at all is something of a bonus for TE-P shareholders.
Gatorman
Supreme Elite Maximum Tier
I'm a dolphin fan and I'd say his upside is Kittle and his downside is basically Durham Smythe. It is a pretty big range, but Miami really didn't make it work with any of the WRs not named Hill or Waddle (and I'd argue Waddle had a down year). The TE, RB, and FB still need to be sprinkled into the passing game better by Miami so it will be intersting to see what the mad genius does here.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
He’ll certainly be wide open more in MIA than he was in ATL.
Will be interesting to see if McD takes advantage of that.
He's a big improvement over what they had last year, at least as a receiver. It helps them to go BPA in the draft where they have no 3rd (Ross tampering) or 4th. They have a big hole at DL, probably OL, and maybe CB and edge. The draft is deep early at OL & CB.
I'm lamenting the loss on waivers of 2023 7th round pick Elijah Higgins, who was the most claimed player (5 teams) during the last cut down. What were Grier and McDonald thinking after Higgins successful transition from WR to TE during the.preseason. Higgins would've been a cheaper younger version of Jonnu.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
He was everyone’s favorite sleeper - I drafted him in 2 TE-P leagues. What a disappointment that was.
jtd13
Footballguy
I took that more as "Blocking is the first job" not "blocking is the only job". You would be hard pressed to find a worse blocking TE than Gesicki.
That said, I probably would have liked Smith elsewhere too. I think Smythe numbers with a bit more upside from better YAC is probably a reasonable middle projection.
His upside is nowhere near Kittle. Kittle is arguably the best TE in the NFL. Jonnu is a solid RAC guy but isn't really any good at anything else.
I think the value here is Waddle. who was a lot better than he gets credit for, just because Hill was so excellent. Waddle would have put up close to 1,400 yards had he stayed healthy.
rockaction
Footballguy
Miami threw 52 passes to TEs last year. Divide that by 17. Not good. And that’s to the position, not to one guy. Bad signing for Jonnu GMs.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
If Gesecki can score 5x, I’d think 5-8 is on tbe table for Smith. He brings legit size to the red zone. Hill/Waddle/Achane aren’t exactly huge & that was an area of deficiency last year.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
But that’s the knock on waddle. He’s undersized and seems to limp off after every catch
zamboni
Footballguy
The Dolphins offense isn't predicated on size though, but mainly mismatches and subterfuge. It helps to have some size, but I doubt they'll start using the TE more because of it. Gesecki did score 5 TDs, but even if Jonnu gets that number, that's probably not going to move the needle much fantasy wise if it comes with 2-3 catches a game.
rockaction
Footballguy
Dude, reading these Gesicki articles discussing his 2022 usage is depressing for a Jonnu GM like myself. I have no illusions about this guy becoming a valuable fantasy piece.
Unless McDaniel changes his whole play calling style (here's a prediction—he won't), Jonnu will be an in-line blocker most of the time and not much else. McDaniel rarely uses two tight ends and uses his one TE on the field to block. Plain and simple. Every article talks about his refusal to use the tight ends. In the Miami thread, one of the guys (I forget who) would constantly bemoan the lack of TE usage.
Worst landing spot for Jonnu. This tendency seems like a deliberate part of a McDaniel offense and is unlikely to change.
Unless McDaniel changes his whole play calling style (here's a prediction—he won't), Jonnu will be an in-line blocker most of the time and not much else. McDaniel rarely uses two tight ends and uses his one TE on the field to block. Plain and simple. Every article talks about his refusal to use the tight ends. In the Miami thread, one of the guys (I forget who) would constantly bemoan the lack of TE usage.
Worst landing spot for Jonnu. This tendency seems like a deliberate part of a McDaniel offense and is unlikely to change.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
No, the worst landing spot would be somewhere he’s a backup.
TBD. But there are some reasons to be optimistic.
1. The Dolphins are in cap hell, losing several key players, but are upgrading TE at a cost of $4.075M per year, up to $10M over 2 with incentives. Not a huge contract, but that may be their biggest outside signing. He's a big upgrade as a receiver over Smythe and Julian Hill.
2. MIA struggled to find a reliable 3rd & 4th option for Tua. Was it by design they ignored Berrios and the TEs in most games, or were they not separating, or was coach in love too much with the long ball and Tyreek & Waddle? A little of both, but vs good defenses the offense struggled, I expect coach MM to make some changes and game plan some easy throws to Jonnu. He's tied for lead since 2018 in TEs reaching 20mph. I think he's still fast for a TE.
3. Tua forced the ball to small WRs in the end-zone too many times. Smith may be their best endzone option in 2024.
I'll go with 50/600/6.
rockaction
Footballguy
They franchise tagged Gesicki and then proceeded to never throw the ball to a TE who was 1) a receiving specialist and 2) in his prime. They paid him eleven million dollars to go unused, so Jonnu's salary really doesn't say much.
Very much so, but that doesn't indicate usage.
Look, I'm going to continue to roster Jonnu. I'm just not expecting anything approaching TE1 numbers from him in Miami. He's a TE2, if that.
Jonnu plays inline alot, so he is a better fit than Gesicki. I think TE2 is reasonable. As you mention, McDaniel will have to change playcalling patterns. They wanna protect Tua and provide run blocking but every local writer has pointed out how much of an outlier Miami's TE usage was in 2023. In preseason 2023, they had TEs chip and then run patterns frequently, but not during the regular season.
>>While Smith is an accomplished pass-catching tight end, he has primarily operated from an inline alignment, as opposed to lining up in the slot; this ability to block could appeal to head coach Mike McDaniel, who often asks his tight ends to execute blocking duties.<<
From Barry Jackson.
I wouldn't assume Jonnu just banishes Smythe to the bench. I'm very much expecting a timeshare, much like Jonnu has had his entire career under like 4 different staffs. There's some TE2 upside, but I think he'll be featured a lot less than he was in Atlanta, where he was inexplicably the #1 option at times. Jonnu will be like the 5th option here, behind Hill, Waddle, and the RBs, especially if Achane stays healthy.
ETA: Also wouldn't be shocked if they added a 3rd WR in the draft.
ETA: Also wouldn't be shocked if they added a 3rd WR in the draft.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
As a supplement to this, even in Smith's best seasons, he only produced as a mid-level fantasy TE2 (in PPR leagues). His annual rankings were 50, 36, 19, 17, 36, 47, and 17. He had one season with 65 targets and last year had 70. In 5 other seasons, he maxed out at 45 targets. Last season, there were 29 TEs that had 45 targets or more. As already discussed in this thread, MIA hasn't really utilized the TE spot that much. Under McDaniel, MIA allocated 52 targets to TEs in 2023 and 75 in 2022. IMO, he's unlikely to see a big target share and unlikely to put up 9 TD like he did one year with the Titans. I still see the Dolphins funneling targets to their WRs (372 targets last year) and RBs (109 targets) without a huge increase in those TE targets (75).
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I saw this numerous times - and the dolphins struggled as a whole to be productive in the RZ.
I see Smith as a clear upgrade for them in the RZ, and they’d be foolish to not capitalize on his size there.
I’m not saying he’s Kelce II, but he could carve out some TD-depending FF value. I’d be a little surprised if he didn’t exceed Gesecki’s 5.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’ll be psyched with TE2 FF numbers.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
From what I remember, he's more of a catch and run guy than a big bodied jumped ball / contested catch guy. I now NE didn't throw to him in the end zone much at all, and from what I recall from his time in TEN, the highlights I saw were more TE screens and quick dump offs in the flat. Does that make him a red zone target? In Miami, aren't those routes run by backs out of the backfield or WR? But I don't see Smith running fades, across the back of the end zone routes, or boxing out defenders for a turn and catch just over the goal line (like Kelce does). Fantasy wise a TD is a TD, but I think Jonnu's scores are usually more non-traditional.
