What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (1 Viewer)

I took Pitts in a couple redrafts last year. As has been said he didn't win me the ship but he didn't lose it either. I did take one team to the final but lost. I didn't have a lot of hope for him but I wanted to have at least a little redraft exposure in case he went off. 

Calvin Ridley leaving the team early/midseason was the worst thing that could have happened to Pitts. Matt Ryan was under duress (?) on every snap. And 1 TD was incredibly flukishly low.

Drake London and an improved OL should make a lot of difference in the quality of the offense. If CPAT can continue to be a duel threat weapon, Pitts should have a little more room to operate. I would still expect him to be keyed on by defenses until further notice but he is also going to get gobs of targets.

I am bullish on both Mariota and Ridder. Both should be able to extend plays with their feet in a way Matt Ryan never could. 

 
barackdhouse said:
I am bullish on both Mariota and Ridder. Both should be able to extend plays with their feet in a way Matt Ryan never could.
Click to expand...
Matt Ryan is a great QB for pass receivers.  He is constantly at the top in pass attempts, and has a very healthy 65.5% completion rate.  Mobile QB's like Mariota and Ridder may be able to extend plays, but they are more likely to put their head down and run when trying to extend.

 
barackdhouse said:
but I wanted to have at least a little redraft exposure in case he went off. 
Click to expand...
That's the gamble worth taking I mentioned previously. There was a chance he would be an absolute monster/difference maker/cheat code. In  a landscape with dearth of quality FF TE's, getting "the next Kelce" can be a league-winning move. 

And he legitimately delivered everything but the TDs. 

If someone told me before my 2021 draft that Pitts would be a LOCK for 68/1000+, I would have taken him at his ADP. IMO scoring only 1 TD was a fluke.  If he scored even 6 TDs his earliest ADP would have been justified.

barackdhouse said:
Calvin Ridley leaving the team early/midseason was the worst thing that could have happened to Pitts. Matt Ryan was under duress (?) on every snap. And 1 TD was incredibly flukishly low.
Click to expand...
Yep. This exactly. Ridley drew top coverage, and after his departure, Pitts was smothered. Especially in the RZ. 

barackdhouse said:
Drake London and an improved OL should make a lot of difference in the quality of the offense. If CPAT can continue to be a duel threat weapon, Pitts should have a little more room to operate. I would still expect him to be keyed on by defenses until further notice but he is also going to get gobs of targets.

I am bullish on both Mariota and Ridder. Both should be able to extend plays with their feet in a way Matt Ryan never could. 
Click to expand...
I agree - I could see a scenario where Pitts has 90/1200/5 with MM dumping off short. 

 
TheWinz said:
Matt Ryan is a great QB for pass receivers.  He is constantly at the top in pass attempts, and has a very healthy 65.5% completion rate.  Mobile QB's like Mariota and Ridder may be able to extend plays, but they are more likely to put their head down and run when trying to extend.
Click to expand...
Historically I agree. But I watched way too many Falcons games last year & Ryan looked terrible - especially after Ridley's departure. The OL was horrible and he had no time to throw. And as @barackdhouse said, Ryan isn't going to extend any plays with his legs. 

As for MM's ability to do just that, it's not a negative if he picks up the 1st down and extends the drive. That's what Ryan couldn't do. So many punts last year. 

 
TheWinz said:
Matt Ryan is a great QB for pass receivers.  He is constantly at the top in pass attempts, and has a very healthy 65.5% completion rate.  Mobile QB's like Mariota and Ridder may be able to extend plays, but they are more likely to put their head down and run when trying to extend.
Click to expand...


exactly, it's pretty tough to not see this as a QB downgrade.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
And he legitimately delivered everything but the TDs. 

If someone told me before my 2021 draft that Pitts would be a LOCK for 68/1000+, I would have taken him at his ADP. IMO scoring only 1 TD was a fluke.  If he scored even 6 TDs his earliest ADP would have been justified.
Click to expand...
Yeah man if we all knew the #targets, catches and yards but left the TDs a secret before the season, he would have been drafted even higher. 

 
TripItUp said:
I personally cannot.

Not with the addition of London and a downgrade at QB.
Click to expand...
I think you’re evaluation of MM as a “downgrade” in the context of Pitts is way off. 

As bad as Ryan looked last year I’d even question if MM is a downgrade at all, but that’s not the subject at hand.

In the context of Pitts. MM is far *less* likely to be throwing downfield as much as Ryan did., and far more likely to be dumping off to his safety valves underneath. That will most likely be Pitts & CPat. 

I also think you’re wildly overestimating what London will bring in his rookie year with an OL that can’t hold off the pass rush.  I see London basically offsetting the loss of Gage. I’m not even sure he’ll be a replacement level player for him, but again, that’s a discussion for another topic. For this topic what’s relevant is the claim that London is somehow going to be such a target hog that he impacts Pitts share, which I find to be off-base.

I’m hopeful that London is at least as good as Gage was, because that will actually *help* Pitts. The better London is, the *more* it helps Pitts.

You seem to have it backwards on what having a 2nd or 3rd capable option will do In terms of softening the coverage for Pitts, who will arguably be the WR1 of this middling ATL offense.

Dink & dunk will favor Pitts and London alike since they’re both adept at short yardage receptions. 

 
TripItUp said:
exactly, it's pretty tough to not see this as a QB downgrade.
Click to expand...
A QB downgrade =/= to a downgrade for Pitts.

No one will argue that MM is a better QB than Ryan.

But one can fairly easily argue that MM could well result in more targets for Pitts.

Ryan was tough as nails in an offense he had no chance of success in as an immobile QB. There was no time to throw deep, and Ryan could not extend plays with his legs when the pocket invariably collapsed.

MM could absolutely be an upgrade for Pitts. Just the ability to extend drives with his legs could easily result in 15-20 more receptions, and more RZ opportunities. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
TripItUp said:
what are you projecting?
Click to expand...
As a very early projection?

(disclaimer as I 100% know you’ll be waiting to throw it in my face after 2022 season based on your obvious proclivity for such things) 

I’ll be able to make a more qualified one after seeing MM in training camp in August, but as of May 7th, 2022, I’ll say 85/1120/5

I reserve the right to adjust accordingly once camp starts and I can see ATL’s OL, and how MM is looking.

 What’s yours? 

 
MM is definitely not ideal and probably a downgrade, but let's not confuse 2021 Matt Ryan with prime Matt Ryan.

Ryan was 17th in the NFL last year in passing yards per game, 22nd in TDs per game.  He was worse in yds/TDs per game than Jimmy Garoppolo, Carson Wentz, Taylor Heinicke, and Jared Goff.  So it's not like his production from last year is irreplaceable.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
As a very early projection?

(disclaimer as I 100% know you’ll be waiting to throw it in my face after 2022 season based on your obvious proclivity for such things) 

I’ll be able to make a more qualified one after seeing MM in training camp in August, but as of May 7th, 2022, I’ll say 85/1120/5

I reserve the right to adjust accordingly once camp starts and I can see ATL’s OL, and how MM is looking.

 What’s yours? 
Click to expand...


73/1050/4

So not terribly different, but makes him wildly overrated in redrafts this year IMHO.

 
Clay has him at 75/961/5

A bit pessimistic on the YPC for my taste.

Where does FBG have him?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
FWIW, on the flipside I'm not sure a dink and dunk QB is an upgrade for Pitts like it would be for a more traditional TE.  What Pitts bring to the table that most TEs don't is athleticism and big play ability.  And particularly his ball skills and contested catch ability.

While it's true that Ryan often did not have enough time to throw deep, when he did have time to throw deep he was willing to give Pitts a chance downfield in coverage.  I'm not sure MM will be willing to do the same as much, especially when unlike Ryan he has a viable alternative (running).

 
IDK if it is because he is accurate or because he is too timid to throw into tight windows but I remember towards the end of his tenure in TEN that MM had a very elite RZ TD/INT ratio. 

I also think he is *much* better than given credit. Ryan was terrible last year and it gives me great pause about Indy but different topic. MM will be plenty serviceable for Pitts. 

 
TripItUp said:
73/1050/4

So not terribly different, but makes him wildly overrated in redrafts this year IMHO.
Click to expand...
That makes him likely to be the TE3-4

So, depends on format, but seems pretty fairly rated for TE-P, and perhaps slightly overrated in non TE-P.

If the TDs approach 7 and receptions approach 85, he’s pretty fairly valued for non TE-P. 

 
FreeBaGeL said:
MM is definitely not ideal and probably a downgrade, but let's not confuse 2021 Matt Ryan with prime Matt Ryan.

Ryan was 17th in the NFL last year in passing yards per game, 22nd in TDs per game.  He was worse in yds/TDs per game than Jimmy Garoppolo, Carson Wentz, Taylor Heinicke, and Jared Goff.  So it's not like his production from last year is irreplaceable.
Click to expand...
My point exactly. And as I mentioned, as a mobile QB, I’m betting MM can extend a few more drives. ATL’s punter must have been the 1st one in the ice bath after every game. 

 
barackdhouse said:
IDK if it is because he is accurate or because he is too timid to throw into tight windows but I remember towards the end of his tenure in TEN that MM had a very elite RZ TD/INT ratio. 

I also think he is *much* better than given credit. Ryan was terrible last year and it gives me great pause about Indy but different topic. MM will be plenty serviceable for Pitts. 
Click to expand...
Agree with all of this. 

 
FreeBaGeL said:
FWIW, on the flipside I'm not sure a dink and dunk QB is an upgrade for Pitts like it would be for a more traditional TE.  What Pitts bring to the table that most TEs don't is athleticism and big play ability.  And particularly his ball skills and contested catch ability.

While it's true that Ryan often did not have enough time to throw deep, when he did have time to throw deep he was willing to give Pitts a chance downfield in coverage.  I'm not sure MM will be willing to do the same as much, especially when unlike Ryan he has a viable alternative (running).
Click to expand...
Possible. I maintain that even if he takes off running, if it nets the Falcons additional 1st downs & RZ appearances, he’s an upgrade from what looked like a washed up Ryan.

Also while Ryan was willing to go deep, his accuracy seemed pretty hit & miss on those throws.

They're just such different QBs. MM might be better suited to a team with a trash OL.

He also might get hurt by week 4. Many things possible on the spectrum of outcomes here. 

 
barackdhouse said:
I wouldn't underestimate Ridder either. 
Click to expand...
This. All this talk of Mariota compared to Ryan, and I think Ridder is likely starting before midseason. Which isn't necessarily bad for Pitts either. 

I've got Pitts as TE3, and as the likely centerpiece of the likely underrated Falcons offense. I also think the drop off at TE is after Pitts. His targets should dwarf Waller/Kittle. 

Something like 80-1100-8 doesn't seem unreasonable to me. 

 
For those that have a sub to FantasyMojo, he released his deep dive into last years main event. Player ownership for playoff teams and Championship teams. 

Pitts is between Conklin and Kmet @ 6-7% championship rate and 16-17% in playoff teams. To put this in perspective, Moreau, O’Shaughnessy and Ertz were the top 3 in this category with a 13-14% winning ratio and a 32-33% hit rate for the playoffs. 

This has nothing to do with the upcoming season, but just more to the earlier conversation about the lack of success he likely had on your teams outcome last season.  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Backfield shift to TE or slot like Jonnu has been discussed recently. Marcus and Ridder will know exactly who is covering Pitts and everything will be a response to that.

It's exciting for his fantasy stats. Anything setup as him being the cog is wonderful 

 
candian fantasy guy said:
For those that have a sub to FantasyMojo, he released his deep dive into last years main event. Player ownership for playoff teams and Championship teams. 

Pitts is between Conklin and Kmet @ 6-7% championship rate and 16-17% in playoff teams. To put this in perspective, Moreau, O’Shaughnessy and Ertz were the top 3 in this category with a 13-14% winning ratio and a 32-33% hit rate for the playoffs. 

This has nothing to do with the upcoming season, but just more to the earlier conversation about the lack of success he likely had on your teams outcome last season.  
Click to expand...
This is probably more of a play on hitting picks and by his ADP in Redraft, which I owned zero shares of him in, he was overdrafted.  However, Dynasty ownership is a different story and I did whatever I could to secure Pitts because I think his floor is higher than a lot of TE's ceilings.  

 
JoeJoe88 said:
Hey stop with this useful analytics stuff. I want to read more about how he was overdrafted last year in redraft. 
Click to expand...
Next time mention me.

As mentioned, I am a Pitts owner and he did not perform to his ADP of 41 in PPR leagues.  I am an absolute Pitts truther, but I was steering away from him in Redraft, as mentioned in the previous post.  In fact, prior to this post - I said something about taking the last available between Hockenson, Pitts and Andrews because I thought they would be the last of the "Top Tier" or "Tier 2" TE's - well Gronk, Goedert proved that wrong.  If you look at ADP for Pitts inside the top 5 in almost every drop or pick 41 and you look at the performance 11th best PPR TE, you can't disagree that he was overdrafted in Redraft.  I don't feel remotely bad about picking him up in Dynasty, but... Gronk, Schultz, Goedert and Ertz were probably better options and selecting Cooper Kupp in that Pitts/Hockenson draft range.

I did, however, win my redraft league with Hockenson as my TE, but believe he fell into the 6th round before I took him.

It's called ROI and Pitts wasn't worth it, but neither was Hockenson either. 

 
TVT 0 N S T A said:
but I was steering away from him in Redraft
Click to expand...
As did most savvy players last season, and virtually every FF analyst that I listen to were advocating doing the same. 
 

Given the history of rookie TE production expecting him to come in and justify that kind of ADP was foolish. 
 

Dynasty? He’s about as untouchable as it comes for me. 

 
One thing about his rookie season though-the yardage was pretty impressive, and more than I would’ve expected him to get in his first year.  I would certainly not have expected 1K. 
 

The single td that he scored is the only reason you might still be able to acquire him in dynasty. I’d imagine that goes down as a massive outlier when we look back at his career. As high as his value is now in dynasty, the scary part is this might be as low as it ever gets. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
JoeJoe88 said:
One thing about his rookie season though-the yardage was pretty impressive, and more than I would’ve expected him to get in his first year.  I would certainly not have expected 1K. 

The single td that he scored is the only reason you might still be able to acquire him in dynasty. I’d imagine that goes down as a massive outlier when we look back at his career. As high as his value is now in dynasty, the scary part is this might be as low as it ever gets. 
Click to expand...
I didn't take him in our dynasty SF TEP startup last year because I figured he would struggle like just about all hyped rookie TE's do and then I could trade for him cheaper after year 1.  (He went beginning of the second round ahead of players like Herbert & Dak). Turns out that didn't quite work out as planned as he looked great and that yardage was impressive but fortunately the TD's and QB status (and his owner's lack of QBs) opened enough of a window that I could still trade for him last week.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Kyle Pitts hopes to improve pre-snap in 2022. 

Unsurprisingly lighting up the Falcons' offseason program, Pitts has claimed he feels physically faster this offseason but that he also hopes to process quicker as a sophomore. It would certainly be the next logical step to take for a special player who nevertheless allowed himself to get defensively schemed out of the action at times in 2021. That is just life for a rookie in the NFL, especially at tight end. A top-three fantasy option, Pitts has the capability to finish as the No. 1 overall player at the position. 

SOURCE: atlantafalcons.com 

Jun 16, 2022, 2:32 PM ET
Click to expand...

 
I was cautiously optimistic on Pitts in redraft last year. It's important to also consider keeper factors... many leagues allow for keepers in the same round or one advanced. 

In a 10T PPR / $350 / Redraft league I got him as TE6 when he fell to the 6th last year (55th pick overall) after Kelce (1st), Waller (3rd), Kittle (4th), Hockenson (5th), Andrews (5th).  I'm not mad at the move/outcome. 

He went in the 3rd in another 12T PPR / $250 / Keep 1 League... that got some laughs. 
 

This year FFL Calc ADP has him at 3.10 / 36th overall in PPR. 
IMO I prefer the value of Goedert / Hock and then Schultz. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
TVT 0 N S T A said:
This is probably more of a play on hitting picks and by his ADP in Redraft, which I owned zero shares of him in, he was overdrafted.  However, Dynasty ownership is a different story and I did whatever I could to secure Pitts because I think his floor is higher than a lot of TE's ceilings.  
Click to expand...
No, it’s a play on %. Who was on championship and playoff teams in the FFPC main event. It’s not complicated. 
 

 
TVT 0 N S T A said:
Next time mention me.

As mentioned, I am a Pitts owner and he did not perform to his ADP of 41 in PPR leagues.  I am an absolute Pitts truther, but I was steering away from him in Redraft, as mentioned in the previous post.  In fact, prior to this post - I said something about taking the last available between Hockenson, Pitts and Andrews because I thought they would be the last of the "Top Tier" or "Tier 2" TE's - well Gronk, Goedert proved that wrong.  If you look at ADP for Pitts inside the top 5 in almost every drop or pick 41 and you look at the performance 11th best PPR TE, you can't disagree that he was overdrafted in Redraft.  I don't feel remotely bad about picking him up in Dynasty, but... Gronk, Schultz, Goedert and Ertz were probably better options and selecting Cooper Kupp in that Pitts/Hockenson draft range.

I did, however, win my redraft league with Hockenson as my TE, but believe he fell into the 6th round before I took him.

It's called ROI and Pitts wasn't worth it, but neither was Hockenson either. 
Click to expand...
Yes, exactly. Sorry I miss-read your post when you quoted me. It’s all about ROI. 

 
JoeJoe88 said:
As did most savvy players last season, and virtually every FF analyst that I listen to were advocating doing the same. 
 

Given the history of rookie TE production expecting him to come in and justify that kind of ADP was foolish. 
 
Click to expand...
If you read back in this thread, there were plenty of not so savvy re-draft players. Some are still arguing that he was worth the pick. 
 

With that said, he still out performed my expectations for him last season. 

 
TripItUp said:
preaching to the choir, I think I was the president of the Pitts is overrated club on this board last year.
Click to expand...
I went back, and yes you were.  You said he would finish TE6 thru TE12... he finished TE6.  You did say you could get better value 3 rounds later with Logan Thomas, and you were right.

 
TheWinz said:
I went back, and yes you were.  You said he would finish TE6 thru TE12... he finished TE6.  You did say you could get better value 3 rounds later with Logan Thomas, and you were right.
Click to expand...
I guess I should've kept typing.  I was actually agreeing that Logan Thomas was better value.  Sure, he got injured, but he really only played 5 games (5 snaps with no targets in week 4 doesn't count).  Thomas averaged 11.1 PPR FP (Pitts averaged 10.4).  Thomas was TE8 in PPG; Pitts was TE11.  

 
TripItUp said:
preaching to the choir, I think I was the president of the Pitts is overrated club on this board last year.
Click to expand...
Pitts didn't start out as overrated though.  If I remember correctly, you were bagging on him being drafted in the 5th or 6th round.

There are outliers and unfortunately Logan Thomas doesn't fit the bill for me, because availability is important.  Goedert and Gronk were crazy dart throws.  Hockenson's injury hurt his overall number too.  

In any event, I'm not sure anyone was arguing him in the 4th round but could be wrong.  I remember getting into a length discussion with you and @Hot Sauce Guy but I think we were saying he would put up better than Rookie TE numbers and was in the pack with Hock/Andrews.  I think you were out on him being taken early in Dynasty Rookie Drafts too?

I'm also in the boat that says Ridley's absence hurt Pitts.  I don't know that Patterson has the year he had last year with Ridley in the line-up but definitely think Pitts would have seen more TDs.  

As I said, never owned him in redraft and his ADP was too rich for my blood.  I opted for the last of Hock/Pitts and Andrews, which turned out to be Hock.  He served me well and I won the $$.  Nobody was predicting Goedert's year (see AJB conversations) and Dalton Schultz was a waver add.  

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Ministry of Pain
Atlanta Falcons Offense '24- WR/RB/TE/QB and the OL
Replies
3
Views
233
zamboni
zamboni
ignatiusjreilly
QB/TE draft strategy 2023
2
Replies
82
Views
3K
Pip's Invitation
Pip's Invitation
BobbyLayne
2023 TE data - Targets, Snaps, Routes, Blocking %, Alignment
2 3
Replies
140
Views
6K
BobbyLayne
BobbyLayne

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)
Top