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TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (1 Viewer)

JohnnyU said:
Which landing spot do you prefer?  Some mention they don't like Dallas because of the amount of weapons they have.  Do you agree with that?  Is Miami a good landing spot?  I personally prefer Cincinnati.
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Here is my quick assessment:

Atlanta  - The Falcons feel like Matt Ryan can be productive for at least a few more seasons. Target share early is a bit of a concern as Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are quality players; however, Julio will start to decline at some point in time. Hayden Hurst gets pushed aside quickly to make room for Pitts so while he might not explode immediately in his rookie season, the Falcons are a decent landing spot and for dynasty purposes he has a path to passing Julio Jones as the top weapon in the offensive system by 2022 or 2023.

Cincinnati - Joe Burrow is a dynamic young quarterback, the biggest concern here is the Bengals also building a quality offensive line that will lead to Burrow having longevity at the position. Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are quality players; however, I see a quicker path for Pitts to become the top target for the Bengals as early as the 2021 season (and I am bullish on Tee Higgins). Drew Sample is a fantastic blocking TE so they can run 12 personnel as a regular formation to help take advantage of Pitts offensive gifts while utilizing Sample as an extra offensive lineman.

Dolphins - The jury is still out on what Tua Tagovailoa will become as an NFL quarterback; however, the Dolphins would be taking the right steps by adding Pitts and potentially a top rookie running back. The path to becoming the top target in the passing game as early as the 2021 season is there as leapfrogging DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, and Will Fuller is possible; however, tempering expectations for a season or two is not unreasonable here as there are a lot of weapons and we don’t know what Tua will become. Mike Gesicki is also a more talented pass catcher than what the Falcons and Bengals have, and he is not great at blocking so running 12 personnel is not as feasible as you would need to sub him out for a better blocking TE.

Dallas (trade up scenario) - If Jerry Jones decides that he has to have Pitts regardless of the draft capital that it will take to move up, then Pitts could land here. Dak Prescott is a good quarterback, so there are no concerns about who will deliver the ball to him. The depth chart is crowded in 2021 with Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup all commanding looks; however, there are rumblings that the Cowboys won’t keep Cooper and possibly Gallup beyond the current season, certainly not beyond the 2022 season for Cooper, so the top two targets will eventually be Lamb and Pitts. The offensive system in Dallas can support production from two top pass catchers. The Cowboys current roster of tight ends is nothing special, so there are no concerns for me there.

Detroit - While they have made noises that they are interested in picking Pitts to pair him with T. J. Hockenson, this scenario seems unlikely as the Lions won’t be trading up for Pitts, and it seems highly unlikely that Pitts will fall to the seventh pick. The cupboard is bare for the Lions for pass catching targets short of Hockenson, and Goff is on his last chance to prove that he is an NFL starting caliber QB, so I’m hoping that Pitts doesn’t land here.

 
Faust said:
Here is my quick assessment:

Atlanta  - The Falcons feel like Matt Ryan can be productive for at least a few more seasons. Target share early is a bit of a concern as Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are quality players; however, Julio will start to decline at some point in time. Hayden Hurst gets pushed aside quickly to make room for Pitts so while he might not explode immediately in his rookie season, the Falcons are a decent landing spot and for dynasty purposes he has a path to passing Julio Jones as the top weapon in the offensive system by 2022 or 2023.

Cincinnati - Joe Burrow is a dynamic young quarterback, the biggest concern here is the Bengals also building a quality offensive line that will lead to Burrow having longevity at the position. Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are quality players; however, I see a quicker path for Pitts to become the top target for the Bengals as early as the 2021 season (and I am bullish on Tee Higgins). Drew Sample is a fantastic blocking TE so they can run 12 personnel as a regular formation to help take advantage of Pitts offensive gifts while utilizing Sample as an extra offensive lineman.

Dolphins - The jury is still out on what Tua Tagovailoa will become as an NFL quarterback; however, the Dolphins would be taking the right steps by adding Pitts and potentially a top rookie running back. The path to becoming the top target in the passing game as early as the 2021 season is there as leapfrogging DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, and Will Fuller is possible; however, tempering expectations for a season or two is not unreasonable here as there are a lot of weapons and we don’t know what Tua will become. Mike Gesicki is also a more talented pass catcher than what the Falcons and Bengals have, and he is not great at blocking so running 12 personnel is not as feasible as you would need to sub him out for a better blocking TE.

Dallas (trade up scenario) - If Jerry Jones decides that he has to have Pitts regardless of the draft capital that it will take to move up, then Pitts could land here. Dak Prescott is a good quarterback, so there are no concerns about who will deliver the ball to him. The depth chart is crowded in 2021 with Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup all commanding looks; however, there are rumblings that the Cowboys won’t keep Cooper and possibly Gallup beyond the current season, certainly not beyond the 2022 season for Cooper, so the top two targets will eventually be Lamb and Pitts. The offensive system in Dallas can support production from two top pass catchers. The Cowboys current roster of tight ends is nothing special, so there are no concerns for me there.

Detroit - While they have made noises that they are interested in picking Pitts to pair him with T. J. Hockenson, this scenario seems unlikely as the Lions won’t be trading up for Pitts, and it seems highly unlikely that Pitts will fall to the seventh pick. The cupboard is bare for the Lions for pass catching targets short of Hockenson, and Goff is on his last chance to prove that he is an NFL starting caliber QB, so I’m hoping that Pitts doesn’t land here.
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Yep. None of these spots have the immediate target share or even a good outlook year 2.  Except the Lions, and they don't throw to Hock enough as it is so..... 

To be an elite tight end you need to be at least the 1B in your offense. 

 
kittenmittens said:
Yep. None of these spots have the immediate target share or even a good outlook year 2.  Except the Lions, and they don't throw to Hock enough as it is so..... 

To be an elite tight end you need to be at least the 1B in your offense. 
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I think Atlanta and Cincy are the best landing spots, followed by Dallas and Miami.

 
JohnnyU said:
I think Atlanta and Cincy are the best landing spots, followed by Dallas and Miami.
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Those being the best possible land in spots is a sure sign to fade him.  He is unlikely to be the number one target in any of those offenses.  Especially Dallas. 

So often these stupid franchises take a stud player and just waste him. 

Hopefully there is a surprise pick or trade up.  Cmon Chargers. 

 
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kittenmittens said:
Those being the best possible land in spots is a sure sign to fade him.  He is unlikely to be the number one target in any of those offenses.  Especially Dallas. 

So often these stupid franchises take a stud play and just waste him. 
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I don't agree.  Julio is slowing down  and Hurst isn't a threat to Pitts.  I can see Ridley and Pitts being that offense very soon. Not to mention they don't have viable RBs.  As for Cincy, I see no reason why Pitts couldn't flourish with Burrow.  Higgins and Boyd are fine receivers, but that hardly makes me blink long term.  I agree with you about Dallas short term.  Besides, I'm not basing my evaluation of Pitts for 2021.  Anything he does this year is gravy.  I also see no roadblocks in Miami.  If anything Gesicki will take a smaller role.

 
JohnnyU said:
I don't agree.  Julio is slowing down  and Hurst isn't a threat to Pitts.  I can see Ridley and Pitts being that offense very soon. Not to mention they don't have viable RBs.  As for Cincy, I see no reason why Pitts couldn't flourish with Burrow.  Higgins and Boyd are fine receivers, but that hardly makes me blink long term.  I agree with you about Dallas short term.  Besides, I'm not basing my evaluation of Pitts for 2021.  Anything he does this year is gravy.  I also see no roadblocks in Miami.  If anything Gesicki will take a smaller role.
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JohnnyU said:
 Hurst isn't a threat to Pitts.  
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He absolutely is.  So is Gesicki.  Year 1 at least. 

Rookie TEs almost always take a while to push aside decent established vets. 

 
JohnnyU said:
I'm a very patient man.  If I believe in someone I'm not like these young whipper snappers today that have to have instant gratification. 
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You're wise.  I may buy from one of the disappointed whipper snappers. 

You're also not taking him stupid early so i don't think we even disagree. 

 
2021 NFL Draft: Ja'Marr Chase, Kyle Pitts headline Next Gen Stats' can't-miss prospects

Excerpt:

Kyle Pitts, Florida TE - 20 years old 

Production Score: 99

Athleticism Score: 98

OVERALL DRAFT SCORE: 99

PRO BOWL PROBABILITY: 19%

When it comes to the quantifiable, Pitts has one of the cleanest analytical profiles in recent memory. Measuring in at 6-foot-5 5/8 and 245 pounds, with a wingspan of 83 3/8 inches, Pitts ran a 4.40 40-yard dash at Florida's pro day and posted a 10-foot-9 broad jump -- all numbers that would have ranked in the top 10 among 52 wide receivers invited to this year's abbreviated NFL Scouting Combine. With elite athletic traits and a history of big plays in the air game (770 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns in just eight games last season), Pitts offers everything you want in an impact pass catcher. Expect the Florida prospect to play a role similar to that of Travis Kelce, who lined up detached on 62 percent of his offensive plays in 2020. Pitts is only the 12th prospect in our data set (2003-2021) to enter the draft with a production, athleticism and overall draft score of 98 or higher. Ten of the previous 11 have made the Pro Bowl: Mario Williams, Eric Berry, Ndamukong Suh, Dont'a Hightower, Luke Kuechly, Aaron Donald, Derwin James, Denzel Ward, Saquon Barkley and Kyler Murray. The only omission from the list? Super Bowl LV champion Devin White.
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Once Kyle Pitts is acclimated to the NFL game, the only reason why you would play Hayden Hurst over Pitts in the 2021 season is for Hurst’s stronger skills and experience in pass protection and blocking, so on offensive alignments that call for max protection - or when Pitts needs a break.

The Falcons will also make use of some 12 personnel alignments where Hurst will be tasked with more of the blocking responsibilities, which is ideal for Pitts from a snaps and target share perspective in year one.

Pitts is also not a bad blocking college tight end, but he will need some time to get coached up to the NFL game.

 
Faust said:
Once Kyle Pitts is acclimated to the NFL game, the only reason why you would play Hayden Hurst over Pitts in the 2021 season is for Hurst’s stronger skills and experience in pass protection and blocking, so on offensive alignments that call for max protection - or when Pitts needs a break.

The Falcons will also make use of some 12 personnel alignments where Hurst will be tasked with more of the blocking responsibilities, which is ideal for Pitts from a snaps and target share perspective in year one.

Pitts is also not a bad blocking college tight end, but he will need some time to get coached up to the NFL game.
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If Pitts gets acclimated enough to the NFL game in 2021 to usurp Hurst and get all the snaps he wants, he will be the first TE prospect in history to ever do something like that. 

Vernon Davis also had the most insane prospect profile we had ever seen and look at his first 3 years. 

It's hard to even name a first round tight end that isn't considered a bust in fantasy right now. 

This isn't to say Pitts isn't good or won't succeed, its just that I see the community is over selling the chances of it. 

 
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kittenmittens said:
You're wise.  I may buy from one of the disappointed whipper snappers. 

You're also not taking him stupid early so i don't think we even disagree. 
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The only league I might take him early I'm doing so because I also have the 1.7.  I won't take him early if Chase falls to me.

 
kittenmittens said:
If Pitts gets acclimated enough to the NFL game in 2021 to usurp Hurst and get all the snaps he wants, he will be the first TE prospect in history to ever do something like that. 

Vernon Davis also had the most insane prospect profile we had ever seen and look at his first 3 years. 

It's hard to even name a first round tight end that isn't considered a bust in fantasy right now. 

This isn't to say Pitts isn't good or won't succeed, its just that I see the community is over selling the chances of it. 
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You are not wrong in your thinking with regards to Pitts, as the historical data backs it up:

It takes a year before tight ends really catch on to NFL game (September 3, 2018) 

I do think that by the end of the 2021 season we will start to see the transition take place, and that Pitts has a shot at bucking the historical trends - to some extent as I’m not projecting 1,000 yards and 10+ TDs in year one.

I also play dynasty fantasy football, and like @JohnnyU, I too will be very patient if I land Pitts in my rookie draft. In my primary league, I have the 1.06 pick and can give Darren Waller my franchise tag this year, so I am cautiously optimistic that Pitts will (hopefully) be there for that pick.

 
kittenmittens said:
I for the record love Pitts.  I just can't justify him at his ADP.  Almost all of his potential value is already priced in. 

You're paying 100 right now, hoping for him to go to 120 when it will be much more likely for him to go down to 50.   It's assymetrical downside. 
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I can kind of see this point but this is hyperbole.  Why is Pitts priced at his ceiling but Chase/ETN/Harris are not?

Sure I guess you can make that argument within the position but that's not really a tangible thing that does anything.  That's like saying the 1.01 rookie is already more valuable than all 2021 rookies so he has nowhere to go but down.

Pitts is a mid 4th round startup pick and anywhere from the 1.03-1.05 rookie.  There is still plenty of room for his value to rise if he hits.  By a lot.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I can kind of see this point but this is hyperbole.  Why is Pitts priced at his ceiling but Chase/ETN/Harris are not?

Sure I guess you can make that argument within the position but that's not really a tangible thing that does anything.  That's like saying the 1.01 rookie is already more valuable than all 2021 rookies so he has nowhere to go but down.

Pitts is a mid 4th round startup pick and anywhere from the 1.03-1.05 rookie.  There is still plenty of room for his value to rise if he hits.  By a lot.
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The downside and the chances or reaching the downside is assymetrical to the upside and the chances of reaching the upside.  By a lot. 

Probably the same for Najee to be honest. 

 
I currently have Pitts as the #5 pick in an ordinary PPR dynasty league (but closer to the top 4 than to #6), the #1 pick in TE premium, the #2 dynasty TE (close to tied with #3 & #4), and the best NFL player in the draft relative to others at the same position (though positional value makes it worth taking some QBs ahead of him, and considering a WR).

There's no such thing as a can't-miss prospect - plenty of early first rounders have disappointed - but Pitts is really good as far as NFL prospects go.

Pitts had amazing production and great workout numbers, record-breaking PFF grade, analytics love him (my TE rating formula has him behind only Vernon Davis & that doesn't seem unusual), tape guys love him (Zierlein has him as the 2nd highest graded player in the class behind Lawrence and that seems pretty standard), it looks like NFL teams love him as an early first rounder (probably a top 3 non-QB).

I'm not expecting him to put up big numbers as a rookie (though I wouldn't be shocked if he does), but I don't expect his dynasty value to drop much after year 1.

Pitts has plenty of upside above where he's been drafted. He is currently valued close to Travis Kelce, and the thing about acquiring Travis Kelce now is that you only get the age 32+ portion of his career. If Pitts manages to match Kelce's career (which is roughly what "hitting his upside" would mean), then he'd provide 4 seasons as the highest scoring fantasy TE, plus 3 more seasons as a fantasy starter, plus whatever Kelce still has left.

 
JohnnyU said:
Is that for just 2021?  If it is, then it doesn't mean squat for dynasty.
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No it is for dynasty. The main take home is that landing spot is going to mean everything. But I'm not sure I agree. I agree that a place like Cincy or Atlanta could *easily* be ideal. 

 
Blackbear said:
Not a great comp. lol
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Why not?  He  and Ozzie Newsome were ground breaking TEs.   Before that, you have to go back to John Mackey as a game changing TE.

 
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Andy Dufresne said:
How do you draft anyone?
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I'm the worst. 

I am going to draft Pitts in some formats, especially if I am tanking because I agree that he will hold value fairly well without producing. 

I try to play the value game which I get is different from how many approach it.

I like him where the ceiling is super high on 2 TE premium formats and where he is pumping value of my rookie pick by holding high value without probably high points.  Trying to align my shares with the formats where he is maximized along with future builds. 

 
zamboni said:
You may not, but his coaching staff will most likely be mindful of it in deciding whether to take him off the field in certain situations. 
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I disagree, because he is a WR first and a good one at that.  Don't forget what he brings as a WR.

 
JohnnyU said:
zamboni said:
You may not, but his coaching staff will most likely be mindful of it in deciding whether to take him off the field in certain situations. 
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I disagree, because he is a WR first and a good one at that.  Don't forget what he brings as a WR.
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Fair point, although I guess it depends on the team and offensive packages they use. But if a team is using a top 5-7 pick on him, he’ll play a lot for sure sooner rather than later.

 
BobbyLayne said:
4.44 

Average NFL starting WR - 4.45
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cough...cough...really?  My advice is to not play that card.  You think his 40 time matters relative to other WRs?  You don't think he will be a matchup nightmare?  OMG, please don't play that card.

 
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zamboni said:
You may not, but his coaching staff will most likely be mindful of it in deciding whether to take him off the field in certain situations. 
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And those are running situations, so who cares?

I don't want my TE to be able to block a lick.  Jimmy Graham is the posterboy.  Guys that are good blockers get kept back to block in max protect while the gazelles are out running routes.  I want a gazelle.

 
kittenmittens said:
Those being the best possible land in spots is a sure sign to fade him.  He is unlikely to be the number one target in any of those offenses.  Especially Dallas. 

So often these stupid franchises take a stud player and just waste him. 

Hopefully there is a surprise pick or trade up.  Cmon Chargers. 
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He's got a better chance at being the number one target in Cincy than he does with the Chargers.

 
Hankmoody said:
And those are running situations, so who cares?

I don't want my TE to be able to block a lick.  Jimmy Graham is the posterboy.  Guys that are good blockers get kept back to block in max protect while the gazelles are out running routes.  I want a gazelle.
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Gronk can block.

 
kittenmittens said:
I for the record love Pitts.  I just can't justify him at his ADP.  Almost all of his potential value is already priced in. 

You're paying 100 right now, hoping for him to go to 120 when it will be much more likely for him to go down to 50.   It's assymetrical downside. 
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Can’t you say any rookie that you draft with a high first round pick has their value priced in already?

 
JohnnyU said:
cough...cough...really?  My advice is to not play that card.  You think his 40 time matters relative to other WRs?  You don't think he will be a matchup nightmare?  OMG, please don't play that card.
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I think his point is that at TE size Pitts is still faster than the average NFL WR. I think he was showing it as a positive.

 
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