TE receptions VS rec TDs (1 Viewer)

[Bracie Smathers]

Go to the link to see the graph.

• Players on the X - horizontal axis
  
• Receptions on the purple bar graph from highest to lowest
  
• TDs noted by white dots 
  

TE Receptions VS Rec TDs

Tom Kislingbury‏ @TomDegenerate  May 30

TEs who absolutely will NOT maintain their high 2017 reception-TD ratio in 2018:

- Jimmy Graham

- Tyler Kroft

- OJ Howard

- Marcedes Lewis

- Trey Burton

- Luke Willson

- Garrett Celek

- Adam Shaheen

- Ricky Seal Jones

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Interesting to see it visually in this manner where you can clearly see a couple of TEs whose TDs outstripped their reception numbers

When I see some graphic like this I zero in on the second year TEs because I expect a bump in overall numbers.

Even though I expect an overall bump in numbers I can see how Kislingbury would speculate that OJ Howard's TD numbers would drop in terms of ratio to overall receptions but he I thought OJ to be a redzone safety valve for Jamies Winston and that he just excelled in the RZ.

I'm not sure if their is a clear trend for the numbers of Evan Engram, David Njuko, and someone like George Kittle in terms of overall receptions to TDs.  

I'm high on Njuko.

 

[Borden]

The link is just to his Twitter and this guy posts a lot of stuff. My small brain gets caught up on other stuff before I got to the TEs.

I will see if this works... TE Chart

 

[Biabreakable]

Go to the link to see the graph.

• Players on the X - horizontal axis
  
• Receptions on the purple bar graph from highest to lowest
  
• TDs noted by white dots 
  

TE Receptions VS Rec TDs

Tom Kislingbury‏ @TomDegenerate  May 30

TEs who absolutely will NOT maintain their high 2017 reception-TD ratio in 2018:

- Jimmy Graham

- Tyler Kroft

- OJ Howard

- Marcedes Lewis

- Trey Burton

- Luke Willson

- Garrett Celek

- Adam Shaheen

- Ricky Seal Jones

-------------------------------------

Interesting to see it visually in this manner where you can clearly see a couple of TEs whose TDs outstripped their reception numbers

When I see some graphic like this I zero in on the second year TEs because I expect a bump in overall numbers.

Even though I expect an overall bump in numbers I can see how Kislingbury would speculate that OJ Howard's TD numbers would drop in terms of ratio to overall receptions but he I thought OJ to be a redzone safety valve for Jamies Winston and that he just excelled in the RZ.

I'm not sure if their is a clear trend for the numbers of Evan Engram, David Njuko, and someone like George Kittle in terms of overall receptions to TDs.  

I'm high on Njuko.

I see a bunch of posts in the guys twitter feed but not the one you are specifically referencing.

I dunno, you could unpack the premise of why these TE will not maintain their reception to TD ratio?

Off the top of my head Shaheen has 3 TD to 12 receptions, so yeah he isn't likely to score once out of every 4 times he catches the ball as he will likely catch more than that. Say he has 30 receptions and 5 TD this year. He would only be scoring a TD once out of 6 catches then even though the overall production goes up. Nothing earth shattering about that, he is basically just saying that with small sample size the TD ratio is pretty high and a rate that is not sustainable. Same is true for any small sample size.

 

[Borden]

It’s a bit of a strange chart because I don’t think anyone is drafting a player based off their TD to catch ratio. Also, by now everyone should know TDs are a volatile stat. It’s also a strange chart because the TD numbers don’t sit on the lines nicely. But that’s probably just me.

When it starts to get to the lower end of receptions, it also starts to get strange because the TDs more just show useage in the red zone (I’d have to confirm that but TEs usually aren’t scoring from deep out). So, a guy like Shaheen it’s actually very encouraging as you expect him to get better, see more snaps and it seems he’s already being used in the redzone. Again, I’d have to confirm this but it’s my gut reaction to this chart.

 

[brewer]

Interesting graphic, and I guess I get the point, but it is a completely subjective scale.

Jimmy Graham had 16 TDs against 86 receptions in 2013 which is almost exactly the same rate as last year.  He's going to a team with one of the best QBs in the league.  I suppose it's possible that his TD percentage goes down, but I think it's quite a stretch to say that it absolutely will happen.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

It’s a bit of a strange chart because I don’t think anyone is drafting a player based off their TD to catch ratio. Also, by now everyone should know TDs are a volatile stat. It’s also a strange chart because the TD numbers don’t sit on the lines nicely. But that’s probably just me.

That (bolded) is exactly the point he's trying to make. A few TEs last season had rates that aren't sustainable - so last year's fantasy numbers are likely a bit inflated.

@Biabreakable makes a good point about how the guys who had low reception totals shouldn't even really be mentioned - you also make a good counterpoint that it could be argued that their teams saw them as good redzone targets at least. While their rates may not be sustainable if their targets and receptions go up while their TDs also increase over last season (just at a lower %), who cares? That's a good thing.

 

[ratbast]

This list may be helpful when looking at guys like Graham for this upcoming season (though it’s not very valuable with his change of scenery) but I think this list misses big time on 3rd tier TEs. I’m looking for a starting TE who gets red zone looks every time. I see a chance at a TD or even 2 TDS to far outweigh what I would expect out of the consistent 4 to 6 catch TE. Upside is far greater with the RZ looks. I need them for now, not their year end numbers. 

Until I latch onto a top TE I’ll take the RZ threat every time. This however is influenced by scoring systems with minimal PPR value. 

 

[tangfoot]

- Jimmy Graham

- Tyler Kroft

- OJ Howard

- Marcedes Lewis

- Trey Burton

- Luke Willson

- Garrett Celek

- Adam Shaheen

- Ricky Seal Jones

Graham, Lewis, Burton, and Willson are on new teams.  No stretch to say their role will change and they will be used differently.

Kroft and Shaeen are the TE2 on their own team, of course they won't match last year's production.

Howard and Brate are in a timeshare until I see otherwise.

RSJ has a new coach, QB and offense.

I file this list under "####### useless"

 

[tangfoot]

The graph may be FAR more valuable to identify the TEs who will regress positively.  Players like Doyle and Walker scored far too few TDs given how many receptions they had.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

The graph may be FAR more valuable to identify the TEs who will regress positively.  Players like Doyle and Walker scored far too few TDs given how many receptions they had.

Great point, however it should be noted that Indy signed Eric Ebron this offseason so Doyle might lose targets in the red zone and otherwise.

 

[tangfoot]

Great point, however it should be noted that Indy signed Eric Ebron this offseason so Doyle might lose targets in the red zone and otherwise.

The combination of Ebron and Doyle will score so few TDs... lol