TE Travis Kelce, KC (5 Viewers)

[travdogg]

NFL on ESPN
"You're going to see [Travis Kelce] locked in because he doesn't want people talking about him like they talked about him at the end of last year."

@LRiddickESPN breaks down how last season’s lows will fuel Travis Kelce’s drive for a successful year

https://x.com/espnnfl/status/1935443423290359956?s=61

This implies Kelce wasn't "locked in" last year. I'll believe that him recommitting to being "locked in" will restore him to his former fantasy status when I see it. I'll be seeing it on other fantasy owners' rosters.

"Locked in" can mean a lot of things, but I thought he looked a little out of shape last year. Maybe that's just getting old, but it also could be just having so much success, both professionally and personally, that he (and KC in general to an extent) took things for granted.

I'm not saying by any means that a return to 1300 yards like in 2022 is gonna happen, but I think the 8.5 YPC and 3 TDs are both gonna be a lot higher, just by having more talent around him, and potentially being "locked in." On the flip side, I also think 130 targets is probably unlikely to repeat without more WR injuries, so somewhere in the TE6-TE9 range feels fair to me.

 

[Tau837]

NFL on ESPN
"You're going to see [Travis Kelce] locked in because he doesn't want people talking about him like they talked about him at the end of last year."

@LRiddickESPN breaks down how last season’s lows will fuel Travis Kelce’s drive for a successful year

https://x.com/espnnfl/status/1935443423290359956?s=61

This implies Kelce wasn't "locked in" last year. I'll believe that him recommitting to being "locked in" will restore him to his former fantasy status when I see it. I'll be seeing it on other fantasy owners' rosters.

I mean, he was TE4 in overall points in 1.5 TE PPR last year. At least with FFPC scoring. I'll take that deal right now if I could get it.

And I'll take the under for 2025...

 

[TheWinz]

And I'll take the under for 2025...

It's a pretty easy bet there. It's like saying you'll take the under on Ja'Marr Chase finishing WR1

 

[JohnnyU]

And I'll take the under for 2025...

It's a pretty easy bet there. It's like saying you'll take the under on Ja'Marr Chase finishing WR1

I'm not sure I would use that analogy, but fantasy players seem to ignore father time. I don't think Kelce is the TE equilivent to Derrick Henry, no one is, and I see him more in the light of Jason Witten, who is someone that played well beyond what he should have.

 

[TheWinz]

And I'll take the under for 2025...

It's a pretty easy bet there. It's like saying you'll take the under on Ja'Marr Chase finishing WR1

I'm not sure I would use that analogy, but fantasy players seem to ignore father time. I don't think Kelce is the TE equilivent to Derrick Henry, no one is, and I see him more in the light of Jason Witten, who is someone that played well beyond what he should have.

I was just saying the odds of Kelce finishing top 4 are not in his favor. In his prime, I would've taken that bet and won 8 years in a row.

 

[Buckna]

Many of his metrics were significantly diminished in his year 35 season, even moreso than the year before when Mahomes production already went down. Receptions boosted his fantasy #’s but his Y/R, Y/T, YpG, & TD’s were career lows. He was barely involved the first few games until Rice went down, whether they were trying to save him for the playoffs or he has declined is hard for us to know. Brown & Rice & Pacheco being out and Worthy a rookie meant defenses could key on Kelce last year so might explain some of the poor per target results. He should be facing much less coverage if those guys all stay healthy but will likely impact his targets quite a bit. This looked like Rice’s offense before his freak injury, unless Mahomes returns to his old pass happy ways I don’t see Kelce having a great fantasy year.

 

[Tau837]

And I'll take the under for 2025...

It's a pretty easy bet there. It's like saying you'll take the under on Ja'Marr Chase finishing WR1

The post I responded to asserted that he was TE4 last year. Taking the under means I don't think he will be a top 4 TE this season.

 

[travdogg]

The more I think about it, I don't know that TE4 is unrealistic. The dropoff after the top-3 (Bowers, Kittle, McBride) is massive, and honestly the drop from 3 to 4 is probably bigger than the drop from 4 to 10. I mean, Hockenson and LaPorta have the same volume concerns Kelce has, as far as maybe being the #3 in their respective passing games, but they have zero chance of being the #1 which isn't true of Kelce and are likely in worse passing games. Are we really trusting Jonnu's 8th year breakout? Or Njoku with the Browns QB circus? Or Andrews being a TD machine? Or one of the rookies? I don't see why Kelce can't outscore all those guys. I've got Hockenson and LaPorta ahead of him (barely) but I don't think they are really any safer or have higher upside.

Having said all that, name value counts for a lot, and Kelce has that for sure. I haven't gotten him in any best ball draft yet.

 

[JohnnyU]

The more I think about it, I don't know that TE4 is unrealistic. The dropoff after the top-3 (Bowers, Kittle, McBride) is massive, and honestly the drop from 3 to 4 is probably bigger than the drop from 4 to 10. I mean, Hockenson and LaPorta have the same volume concerns Kelce has, as far as maybe being the #3 in their respective passing games, but they have zero chance of being the #1 which isn't true of Kelce and are likely in worse passing games. Are we really trusting Jonnu's 8th year breakout? Or Njoku with the Browns QB circus? Or Andrews being a TD machine? Or one of the rookies? I don't see why Kelce can't outscore all those guys. I've got Hockenson and LaPorta ahead of him (barely) but I don't think they are really any safer or have higher upside.

Having said all that, name value counts for a lot, and Kelce has that for sure. I haven't gotten him in any best ball draft yet.

I’d rather have Tucker Kraft in dynasty

 

[travdogg]

The more I think about it, I don't know that TE4 is unrealistic. The dropoff after the top-3 (Bowers, Kittle, McBride) is massive, and honestly the drop from 3 to 4 is probably bigger than the drop from 4 to 10. I mean, Hockenson and LaPorta have the same volume concerns Kelce has, as far as maybe being the #3 in their respective passing games, but they have zero chance of being the #1 which isn't true of Kelce and are likely in worse passing games. Are we really trusting Jonnu's 8th year breakout? Or Njoku with the Browns QB circus? Or Andrews being a TD machine? Or one of the rookies? I don't see why Kelce can't outscore all those guys. I've got Hockenson and LaPorta ahead of him (barely) but I don't think they are really any safer or have higher upside.

Having said all that, name value counts for a lot, and Kelce has that for sure. I haven't gotten him in any best ball draft yet.

I’d rather have Tucker Kraft in dynasty

I think its pretty clear I'm talking redraft.

 

[JohnnyU]

The more I think about it, I don't know that TE4 is unrealistic. The dropoff after the top-3 (Bowers, Kittle, McBride) is massive, and honestly the drop from 3 to 4 is probably bigger than the drop from 4 to 10. I mean, Hockenson and LaPorta have the same volume concerns Kelce has, as far as maybe being the #3 in their respective passing games, but they have zero chance of being the #1 which isn't true of Kelce and are likely in worse passing games. Are we really trusting Jonnu's 8th year breakout? Or Njoku with the Browns QB circus? Or Andrews being a TD machine? Or one of the rookies? I don't see why Kelce can't outscore all those guys. I've got Hockenson and LaPorta ahead of him (barely) but I don't think they are really any safer or have higher upside.

Having said all that, name value counts for a lot, and Kelce has that for sure. I haven't gotten him in any best ball draft yet.

I’d rather have Tucker Kraft in dynasty

I think its pretty clear I'm talking redraft.

Sorry, I don’t speak redraft. My bad.

 

[joey]

The more I think about it, I don't know that TE4 is unrealistic. The dropoff after the top-3 (Bowers, Kittle, McBride) is massive, and honestly the drop from 3 to 4 is probably bigger than the drop from 4 to 10. I mean, Hockenson and LaPorta have the same volume concerns Kelce has, as far as maybe being the #3 in their respective passing games, but they have zero chance of being the #1 which isn't true of Kelce and are likely in worse passing games. Are we really trusting Jonnu's 8th year breakout? Or Njoku with the Browns QB circus? Or Andrews being a TD machine? Or one of the rookies? I don't see why Kelce can't outscore all those guys. I've got Hockenson and LaPorta ahead of him (barely) but I don't think they are really any safer or have higher upside.

Having said all that, name value counts for a lot, and Kelce has that for sure. I haven't gotten him in any best ball draft yet.

I’d rather have Tucker Kraft in dynasty

I think its pretty clear I'm talking redraft.

Sorry, I don’t speak redraft. My bad.

It’s exactly like dynasty, except only for this year

 

[Mistakes Were Made]

The more I think about it, I don't know that TE4 is unrealistic. The dropoff after the top-3 (Bowers, Kittle, McBride) is massive, and honestly the drop from 3 to 4 is probably bigger than the drop from 4 to 10. I mean, Hockenson and LaPorta have the same volume concerns Kelce has, as far as maybe being the #3 in their respective passing games, but they have zero chance of being the #1 which isn't true of Kelce and are likely in worse passing games. Are we really trusting Jonnu's 8th year breakout? Or Njoku with the Browns QB circus? Or Andrews being a TD machine? Or one of the rookies? I don't see why Kelce can't outscore all those guys. I've got Hockenson and LaPorta ahead of him (barely) but I don't think they are really any safer or have higher upside.

Having said all that, name value counts for a lot, and Kelce has that for sure. I haven't gotten him in any best ball draft yet.

I’d rather have Tucker Kraft in dynasty

I think that's interesting. If only because (and I'm sourcing a Dynasty Nerds podcast that I've 0% fact checked; episode 663 for anyone interested), 90% of all TEs with multiple top 6 finishes since the Tony Gonzalez days have at least 1 top 6 finish in their first two years.

Kraft has been TE15 and TE12. He'd have to way overcome the odds. I think the chances that we get a top-6 season next year from Kelce are pretty high. The whole point of the last few posts were that he sucked last year. He did. He was still TE4.

If I'm a competitor, no effing way do I want Kraft over Kelce. If I'm a rebuilder, I think I can trade Kelce when whatever TE gets hurt. If I'm a rebuilder and I'm not allowed to ever trade either, then for sure I want Kraft.

Honestly, with this profile-based take, I'm trying my best to get Hock wherever I can.

 

[JohnnyU]

The more I think about it, I don't know that TE4 is unrealistic. The dropoff after the top-3 (Bowers, Kittle, McBride) is massive, and honestly the drop from 3 to 4 is probably bigger than the drop from 4 to 10. I mean, Hockenson and LaPorta have the same volume concerns Kelce has, as far as maybe being the #3 in their respective passing games, but they have zero chance of being the #1 which isn't true of Kelce and are likely in worse passing games. Are we really trusting Jonnu's 8th year breakout? Or Njoku with the Browns QB circus? Or Andrews being a TD machine? Or one of the rookies? I don't see why Kelce can't outscore all those guys. I've got Hockenson and LaPorta ahead of him (barely) but I don't think they are really any safer or have higher upside.

Having said all that, name value counts for a lot, and Kelce has that for sure. I haven't gotten him in any best ball draft yet.

I’d rather have Tucker Kraft in dynasty

I think that's interesting. If only because (and I'm sourcing a Dynasty Nerds podcast that I've 0% fact checked; episode 663 for anyone interested), 90% of all TEs with multiple top 6 finishes since the Tony Gonzalez days have at least 1 top 6 finish in their first two years.

Kraft has been TE15 and TE12. He'd have to way overcome the odds. I think the chances that we get a top-6 season next year from Kelce are pretty high. The whole point of the last few posts were that he sucked last year. He did. He was still TE4.

If I'm a competitor, no effing way do I want Kraft over Kelce. If I'm a rebuilder, I think I can trade Kelce when whatever TE gets hurt. If I'm a rebuilder and I'm not allowed to ever trade either, then for sure I want Kraft.

Honestly, with this profile-based take, I'm trying my best to get Hock wherever I can.

Hockenson value isn’t what it was either