shadrap
Footballguy
WR corp. in Phili not so good. I'm going w/ Ertz over the guys you mentioned. Shoot me later.
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TE Zach Ertz, WAS (8 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
thehoch
Footballguy
Good point but Ertz isn't getting the targets. He should be getting double, triple the amount of passes, and more of the red zone too.
I just don't want to hold on, see Hooper and Green get it going, and be left holding the bag. Even if Ertz has a good game, I believe he'll have three bad ones.
Shutout
Footballguy
I would think you are right but something tells me this is a lost season for Ertz and I have no idea why because logically it shouldn't be. But at the end of the day, a guy like Green will probably be a better play, 2 rookies in Hooper and Hunter probably will and that's odd for the TE position and an old guy like Melanie Walker will crush him. When you think of it like that it kinda makes you scratch your head.
Houston turmOiler
Footballguy
I just traded him as an afterthought piece of a bigger deal to a team that also needed a bye week TE. Rejoice those of you who have kept him this long, now he may begin producing like you had hoped. Man this guy really sucked while I had him.
Shutout
Footballguy
Houston turmOiler
Footballguy
It was my pleasure to be rid of him lol. Just seems like one of those guys who won't quite ever put it all together. Still was imagining him pulling off that 14 catch or however many catch effort it was down the stretch a few years back but its just not happening. Thought i saw Celek on the field a ton instead of Ertz as well, although I admit I didn't look up the snap numbers. Ertz didn't seem worth the time.it was YOU! Thanks for falling on the sword to help.
Best of luck to those of you keeping the faith.... my patience has just run out.
A large part of the problem is that the Eagles rank 7th from the bottom in pass attempts and 4th from the bottom in passing yardage. But even if they were throwing more, he's not getting a very large share of the targets. Despite playing more snaps than Agholor, he's getting fewer targets. He's a hold in dynasty and bench fodder in redraft (WW material for short bench leagues).
fightingillini
Footballguy
Wentz isn't going down the field that much, and it doesn't help Ertz that PHI doesn't really have a good deep threat. DGB is still very raw, Agholor sucks, Matthews is not a true WR1.
PHI D is pretty good so expect more low scoring games.
PHI D is pretty good so expect more low scoring games.
packer_junkie
Footballguy
quietly... this dude is coming. Wentz is completing 90% passes intended for him last three weeks and he would of had another 57 yard TD yesterday if Agholar could have lined up correctly.
The Captain
Footballguy
He does look great. Tough matchup this week though.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
he does the same thing every year. He has killed the Skins 3 years in a row in late-season matchups and gets other garbage-time numbers.
he may end up ok next year in total, but I would suspect that he will again leave a lot of people frustrated.
dcgangstas
Footballguy
The Ravens are known to be tough on TEs, but they can still be had. Martellus Bennett had success (70 yards and a TD) against them, and there's no reason why Ertz couldn't. Philly certainly won't be able to run the ball on Baltimore.
Week 16 against the Giants would be a plum matchup for Ertz. NY is brutal against the TE position.
packer_junkie
Footballguy
Seems like the simple floor vs ceiling debate-- Graham gives you a shot at 23 but also a shot at 4. Ertz should live in the 8-13 range i think.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
BAL is a bad match-up for TEs from a season long standpoint but they've given up the 9th most PPG to TEs over the past 5 weeks, 8th most in the past 3 weeks. Both Eifert and Bennett managed top 3 finishes in that time frame.
Ertz is also hands down PHI's best pass catcher so he'll always be involved. In PPR he's a top 5 option regardless of match-up really. If only he had some actual YAC ability he'd be a monster.
kutta
Footballguy
Ertz PPR numbers the past 7 weeks. Good for the #1 TE over that span:
23.10
10.80
8.10
17.30
18.10
22.0
15.10
Only 2 of the last 7 weeks fall in that range. Every other week is higher, and two of them are at the 23 range you attribute to Graham.
Here are Grahams last 7 weeks:
6.40
30.30
8.80
13.60
12.70
18.30
2.60
Graham has had one game over 20 and one close to 20 in the past seven weeks. Ertz has had two games in the 20's and two games close to 20 in four games in seven weeks.
I'll take Ertz no matter how you want to slice it.
packer_junkie
Footballguy
I don't play PPR and would take Ertz as well. Just saying I still think JG has a better shot at a two-td day if needed than Ertz does
Andrew74
Footballguy
I'll say I was surprised when I ran the numbers and Ertz came out TE1. That's a hard trend to ignore, match up or not.
If by "every year" you mean "last year" then, sure. But even with his good game against the Skins in 2014, his splits were still better in the first half of that season. Either way, we're dealing with a new QB and new regime. Plus, missing time with injury almost certainly impeded his progress in the first half. Without that injury he might've built on his 6 catch week 1, instead he didn't even see 6 targets again until week 9. So I think it is safe this year to say he's turning the corner. He'll be back in the same scheme with the same QB next season. That'll be a first for him, I believe.
I certainly don't expect him to net 100+ rec like he's on pace for over the past 6 games, but I think 80+ is easily attainable. I'm thinking Kelce-ish numbers. They key will be improving that YPC.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I'm buying all the shares.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I'm not selling high or anything, so not sure why I'm asking, but it this pace possible to sustain?
Wentz is only on pace for 566 PA so far (117PA/5ga) and Ertz is the recipient of 27% (!!) of those passes and catching 67% of those. That would be 154 targets. Seems pretty crazy, but he had 78 targets in the final 8 games of last season, so we're getting a pretty solid trend going. Alshon - he of outrageous preseason projections - is not getting as much Wentz love: 38 targets, or 122 for 16 games (right around the 120 I predicted, but I didn't predict 150 for Ertz). Torrey and Agholor each have 23 targets.
Wentz is only on pace for 566 PA so far (117PA/5ga) and Ertz is the recipient of 27% (!!) of those passes and catching 67% of those. That would be 154 targets. Seems pretty crazy, but he had 78 targets in the final 8 games of last season, so we're getting a pretty solid trend going. Alshon - he of outrageous preseason projections - is not getting as much Wentz love: 38 targets, or 122 for 16 games (right around the 120 I predicted, but I didn't predict 150 for Ertz). Torrey and Agholor each have 23 targets.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
Yes, Ertz has always been a favorite target of Wentz, as was true for Bradford and Foles before him. Health was holding him back. This is the first year where it's not an issue.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
As for Jeffery, he's been shadowed by elite CBs almost every game and Wentz has not tried to force it to him, as he shouldn't.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
This is why I'm slightly worried about this Thursday. Ertz has to have benefited from Jeffery being covered by PP, Jenkins, Norman and Hayward. The one game where PHI was able to scheme Jeffery away from an opposing team's top CB (Peters) he saw 13 targets. The thing is Ertz still saw 10 targets in that game.
This will be the first time there isn't really an imposing CB lined up on the other side of the ball and CAR has done a decent job vs. TEs this year, although Daniel Fells did score 2 TDs last week. But Ertz has proven to match-up proof, he scored the most fantasy points vs. ARI than any other TE in their last 21 games.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
I made this deal a few days ago, and I'm happy with it:
Gave:
Jordan Reed/Elijah McGuire/Matt Breida/Adam Shaheen
Got:
Zach Ertz
Didn't love giving up so many lottery tickets, but they were free so it got me some stability at TE. Which this year, is a bigger advantage than normal it seems.
Don't see how Ertz isn't a top-5 dynasty TE now. Despite the strong rookie class, the position is mostly a wasteland week to week.
Gave:
Jordan Reed/Elijah McGuire/Matt Breida/Adam Shaheen
Got:
Zach Ertz
Didn't love giving up so many lottery tickets, but they were free so it got me some stability at TE. Which this year, is a bigger advantage than normal it seems.
Don't see how Ertz isn't a top-5 dynasty TE now. Despite the strong rookie class, the position is mostly a wasteland week to week.
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Steeler
Footballguy
I would kill to be able to dump that much potential for a proven commodity in a trade... nice job!
Titanium
Footballguy
This was also the first season Ertz started with the same QB as any of the previous seasons (Vick, Foles, Bradford, Wentz, and now Wentz). IMO, the lack of stability and chemistry development with his QB has played a much larger role in his not breaking out like we all hoped. I would not be looking to sell, as I believe he's as guaranteed a top 3 TE as anyone else.
Amused to Death
Footballguy
Ray Didinger* (IIRC) was discussing Wentz's chemistry with Ertz this past weekend. Wentz just trusts him and they're on the same page. That trust is still being being built with the new receivers - particularly Jeffery. The throws to ZE are often before he comes out of his break. Hopefully that same chemistry/trust will grow with Jeffery as the season progresses. Remember Jeffery sat out most of the preseason and a lot of camp. He also speculated that's one of the reasons Wentz holds on to the ball so long - he's waiting for Jeffery/Smith to come out of their breaks rather than letting it go before like he does with Ertz.
*Ray Didinger is a HOF sports writer and very well respected voice when it comes to the Eagles.
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BigBlue_RI
Footballguy
I have Ertz and Jeffrey. Wasn't by design, just how my draft played out as Ertz was my best value pick and came a few rounds after Alshon. I just lost OBJ, ya think Jeffrey is worth the start this week? Obviously I have Ertz locked and loaded week after week.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
Depends on your other options. Fortunately, CAR doesn't have a CB of the caliber of the guys he's faced previously.
BigBlue_RI
Footballguy
I got Fuller, Funchess, and if he ever gets right (and Derek Car back)...Amari Cooper, as my top options for 2 WR spots.Pip's Invitation said:
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
I wouldn't play Cooper until he comes out of his funk, but I think the other three are pretty even.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Such a stud. I have such faith that Wentz has such faith in Ertz, that when Kuechly didn't come out for the 2nd half I immediately predicted another Ertz TD that quarter. Came sooner than I expected, though.
strong
Footballguy
he's not really on pace for all that many more yards. 57 ypg in 2015, 58 ypg in 2016 and he's at 67 ypg this year.
that's a jump, but the cool thing about ertz' FF production is it's not like he's suddenly being forced the ball in an unsustainable way. he's just finally getting some scores.
those that got him in dynasty have to be feeling very positive about the outlook for the next few years.
that's a jump, but the cool thing about ertz' FF production is it's not like he's suddenly being forced the ball in an unsustainable way. he's just finally getting some scores.
those that got him in dynasty have to be feeling very positive about the outlook for the next few years.
Right before the season began in my dynasty league I traded Reed and Doyle for Ertz and a 2019 First Round rookie pick
strong
Footballguy
Right before the season began in my dynasty league I traded Reed and Doyle for Ertz and a 2019 First Round rookie pick
i turned down eifert for him.
Very true about the great long term outlook. On the topic of the scores, though, I think there was another thread where people were trying to say he just isn't a TD scorer by using historical numbers with the hodge podge of QBs he's had. I think he's proving his ability there now that he's got a decent QB and a little rapport growing with said QB.
