Team Projections: Arizona Cardinals (1 Viewer)

[Unlucky]

I will be releasing my projections on a team-by-team basis, as I complete them. I will then post analysis here for discussion.

My Cardinals' Projections: http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/teams/arz.html

Until I figure out a way to post a viewer friendly version, you'll have to visit the link.

Key players:

Leinart: 308/535/57.6% for 3800 and 20 TDs.

James: 320/1232/9 with 35/238/1 receiving

Boldin: 91/1247/6

Fitzgerald: 84/1151/9

Johnson: 41/595/2

Analysis:

The offensive weapons remain intact, with Leinart likely to show the most progress in his 2nd season. However, the coaching staff changes, which makes this team a little more difficult to project. I don't expect a major shift in the pass/run split. I think the coaching staff will use the talent of the players rather than try to force a different system.

Hopefully, the O-line will be better. Russ Grimm on the coaching staff will help, as will 1st round pick Levi Brown. Don't get overexcited, though, as they have a long way to go towards becoming an elite O-line.

I backed James' carries down a little, but increased his YPC. He's been a workhorse, is getting up there in years, and I don't expect 340+ carries from him. However, he has little competition, so they can't drop too low.

Leinart could greatly surpass the numbers I have for him, but it's dangerous to project the ceiling, rather than what is expected. Plenty of talent in Boldin and Fitz, but I don't want to get carried away.

The defense won't be much better, but probably won't be any worse.

Overall, I see the Cardinals as a slow starting team that will improve throughout the year. New coaching staff plus first 4 games vs. SF, SEA, BAL, and PIT will make it tough. The schedule gets easier after that, IMO.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

Good write up Unlucky.

I agree that the schedule after the bye gets sweet. Your numbers look real reasonable.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

So you've got Edge as a top 10 running back I see. Interesting.

 

[Unlucky]

So you've got Edge as a top 10 running back I see. Interesting.

I don't know yet. We'll see after I finish all of the other teams. One thing to consider is that I have to assume most guys play 16 games. So, the individual totals might be historically higher, but the points per game should break down appropriately.

 

[Captain Hook]

Analysis:

The offensive weapons remain intact, with Leinart likely to show the most progress in his 2nd season. However, the coaching staff changes, which makes this team a little more difficult to project. I don't expect a major shift in the pass/run split. I think the coaching staff will use the talent of the players rather than try to force a different system.

Unlucky, not sure how you can not expect the pass/run split NOT to change when Whisenhunt is on record several times as saying that the number of running plays WILL increase.I would say James projections have to increase and the number of receptions will have to decrease.

YES, if their defense can't play better Whiz & Grimm may have to change the play calling some in the second half to try and win some of those games, but I still think they run more than you project them to.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

How close do you see them getting to 500-550 carries? Judging by Leinart's # of attempts, I assume not close?

 

[cowboymouth]

What about Leonard Pope?

 

[Unlucky]

Unlucky, not sure how you can not expect the pass/run split NOT to change when Whisenhunt is on record several times as saying that the number of running plays WILL increase.I would say James projections have to increase and the number of receptions will have to decrease.YES, if their defense can't play better Whiz & Grimm may have to change the play calling some in the second half to try and win some of those games, but I still think they run more than you project them to.

This is the dilemma I have with this team. There is NOBODY behind James to get more carries. JJ and Shipp both suck. Their strength is in the passing game.Do I believe the coach-speak about committing to the run? Or do I project based on the talents of the players?

 

[Unlucky]

What about Leonard Pope?

26/273/2The link I provided gives the full team projections.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

So you've got Edge as a top 10 running back I see. Interesting.

I don't know yet. We'll see after I finish all of the other teams. One thing to consider is that I have to assume most guys play 16 games. So, the individual totals might be historically higher, but the points per game should break down appropriately.

In most people's projections, the number 15 or so RB will project to have stats that would make the top 10 the previous year... because RBs miss games in the real NFL, but you can't really project for that. I would bet that ends up being the case with Unlucky's projections as well.

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

AZ is going to suprise allot of people this year. They have been the popular pick in the past but everyone is drinking 49er kool-aid now.

I expect to see an N.O type season for the Cards this year. As far as projections the only one I can give is the WILL WIN the NFC West this year..

For the betting man this is a lockdown pick @ 4-1. I myself laid a nickel on it and hope to parlay that into Superbowl tickets so I can watch the Cards lay the Smack down on the Pats. Gonna be cool to see a hosting citys team in the Superbowl.

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

AZ is going to suprise allot of people this year. They have been the popular pick in the past but everyone is drinking 49er kool-aid now.I expect to see an N.O type season for the Cards this year. As far as projections the only one I can give is the WILL WIN the NFC West this year..For the betting man this is a lockdown pick @ 4-1. I myself laid a nickel on it and hope to parlay that into Superbowl tickets so I can watch the Cards lay the Smack down on the Pats. Gonna be cool to see a hosting citys team in the Superbowl.

 

[jurb26]

AZ is going to suprise allot of people this year. They have been the popular pick in the past but everyone is drinking 49er kool-aid now.I expect to see an N.O type season for the Cards this year. As far as projections the only one I can give is the WILL WIN the NFC West this year..For the betting man this is a lockdown pick @ 4-1. I myself laid a nickel on it and hope to parlay that into Superbowl tickets so I can watch the Cards lay the Smack down on the Pats. Gonna be cool to see a hosting citys team in the Superbowl.

For the 1st time in a LONG time, I must say I do feel the Cards are heading in the right direction. They finally addressed some huge needs upfront on the lines and had a strong draft there IMO. With that said, they are still a few years away if you ask me.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

AZ is going to suprise allot of people this year. They have been the popular pick in the past but everyone is drinking 49er kool-aid now.I expect to see an N.O type season for the Cards this year. As far as projections the only one I can give is the WILL WIN the NFC West this year..For the betting man this is a lockdown pick @ 4-1. I myself laid a nickel on it and hope to parlay that into Superbowl tickets so I can watch the Cards lay the Smack down on the Pats. Gonna be cool to see a hosting citys team in the Superbowl.

For the 1st time in a LONG time, I must say I do feel the Cards are heading in the right direction. They finally addressed some huge needs upfront on the lines and had a strong draft there IMO. With that said, they are still a few years away if you ask me.

I doubt they would make the playoffs in the AFC, but making the Super Bowl out of the NFC is a slim possibiliity.

 

[nygiants56]

So you've got Edge as a top 10 running back I see. Interesting.

I think Edge is a top 10 back for sure.guys like Parker and Westbrook aren't likely to rush for anywhere near the same yardages they ran for last season. so you can take them out of the top 10. Barber is gone, so thats another top 10 guy off the map. Chester Taylor ahs AD to worry about, that likely means Taylor will not finish as a top 10 back. gore is injury prone, and it remains to be seen whether or not he can duplicate last years LOFTY stats, so he too might fall out of the top 10.Addai looks promising, but he's never carried the load a full season as the starter in this capacity, i.e, 300+ carries over 16 games. Maroney has a shot at the top 10, but his shoulder might not hold up, and with Faulk/Morris hawking carries and catches, how much Maroney is a factor, remains to be seen. Portis has Betts. Bush, despite the 8,000,000 receptions last season, didn't run the ball particularly well..people keep pointing to his second half, and how he ran much better the final 8 games, but thats screwed up because he ran for 126 yards on 20 carries vs. nyg..7-14 vs Redskins. 11 for -5 against Tampa..its one thing to average a whopping 6+ ypc as a BACKUP, its another thing to do it as a starter, for 16 games and and over 300 carriesso who's left? lj,sa,lt,sjax. rudi. the solid gold players. Edge is in an offense that goes back to a traditional smashmouth style.they play the 2nd easiest schedule against the run this season. With a healthy Leinart/Boldin/Fitz, Levi Brown + an improving O-line, this team should easiy finish in the top 1/2 of the league in rushing totals. and Edge has no competition for carries.he'll easily grab 325-350 carries, and score the lions share of the rushing tds for Az.he should easily finish as a top 10 rb..

 

[sholditch]

So you've got Edge as a top 10 running back I see. Interesting.

I would hope that under 1500 combined and 10 total is not enough to crack the top ten this year. I think given a lot of changing situations around the RB position, the top 10 will be much harder to get into.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

AZ is going to suprise allot of people this year. They have been the popular pick in the past but everyone is drinking 49er kool-aid now.I expect to see an N.O type season for the Cards this year. As far as projections the only one I can give is the WILL WIN the NFC West this year..For the betting man this is a lockdown pick @ 4-1. I myself laid a nickel on it and hope to parlay that into Superbowl tickets so I can watch the Cards lay the Smack down on the Pats. Gonna be cool to see a hosting citys team in the Superbowl.

I remember everybody saying that in 2005. The result: 6-10I remember everybody saying that in 2006. The result: 5-11So is this finally the year that the Arizona Cardinals make the playoffs? Will the 3rd time be the charm? With that abysmal defense and woeful offensive line I'd have to say that the answer is no.

 

[kensat30]

The problem with Edge is that you have to project him at 350+ touches just to crack the top15. Hell last year he had 375 touches and he barely cracked the top20. Is that scary for anyone else? Everyone mentions top10 RB like it is a big deal, but really there is not much difference between RB10-20 in most years. 1300/10 numbers or close is pretty much a bare minimum for a solid RB#2. Personally, I don't think Edge has a chance in hell of scoring 10 TDs this year, but maybe that's just me. Hope that O-line gets better in a hurry..

 

[Ned]

AZ is going to suprise allot of people this year. They have been the popular pick in the past but everyone is drinking 49er kool-aid now.I expect to see an N.O type season for the Cards this year. As far as projections the only one I can give is the WILL WIN the NFC West this year..For the betting man this is a lockdown pick @ 4-1. I myself laid a nickel on it and hope to parlay that into Superbowl tickets so I can watch the Cards lay the Smack down on the Pats. Gonna be cool to see a hosting citys team in the Superbowl.

@ good posting yourself 3 mins after posting...

 

[The Man with the Plan]

So you've got Edge as a top 10 running back I see. Interesting.

I would hope that under 1500 combined and 10 total is not enough to crack the top ten this year. I think given a lot of changing situations around the RB position, the top 10 will be much harder to get into.

Going back the last 3 seasons 206 points puts Edge at the edge (sorry) of the top 10. As a matter of fact going as far back as 1990 shows me that point total would be one of the 10 highest for RB in every season except 2000 (which was a crazy year), 2002, and 2003. I'm not dissing the pick at all. I like Edge this season. Do I top 10 like him? Probably not.